Ohtani or Judge as MVP?

[ScottT]

On 9/20/2022 at 9:53 AM, happybat4 said:

Judge is obviously great, and WAR favors him as well. But I can't get over this fact.

Who would be more valuable?

Player A

.050 AVG, .062 OBP, 25 HR, 40 Runs, 38 RBI, 0 2B, 0 3B, 5 SB, 21 BB, 27 Hits

Player B

148 IP, 2.48 ERA, 196 SO, 1.041 WHIP

I am guessing more people would choose player B. 

Nah.

Poor take. Lol at the offensive percentage deferc3

Math ain't easy 

[Lou]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It is calculated correctly. There is no such thing as replacement level pitcher offense.

If that's the case, why even mention WAR when talking about Ohtani?

[Adam]

[AngelsLakersFan]

10 hours ago, Lou said:

If that's the case, why even mention WAR when talking about Ohtani?

Because there is a replacement level for a DH.

[Lou]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

Because there is a replacement level for a DH.

So his results as a pitcher have no weight in his evaluation? 

Sounds like an extremely flawed system.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

So his results as a pitcher have no weight in his evaluation? 

Sounds like an extremely flawed system.

No, his pitching is calculated as pitching war. His hitting is calculated as batter war. His hitting is not compared to a pitcher baseline because pitchers don't bat. His hitting is compared to a DH baseline because that is the position he plays in the lineup.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

No, his pitching is calculated as pitching war. His hitting is calculated as batter war. His hitting is not compared to a pitcher baseline because pitchers don't bat. His hitting is compared to a DH baseline because that is the position he plays in the lineup.

So what is his pitching WAR?

What is his DH WAR?

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

So what is his pitching WAR?

What is his DH WAR?

Ohtani has 3.9 fWar as a hitter and 5.4 fWar as a pitcher for a total of 9.3 fWar.

[Lou]

15 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Ohtani has 3.9 fWar as a hitter and 5.4 fWar as a pitcher for a total of 9.3 fWar.

He's pretty good. We should keep him.

[AngelsLakersFan]

17 minutes ago, Lou said:

He's pretty good. We should keep him.

Yup, too bad we won't.

[Lou]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

Yup, too bad we won't.

You're mean.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Just now, Lou said:

You're mean.

I've just been hurt too many times!

[Lou]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

I've just been hurt too many times!

[happybat4]

11 hours ago, ScottT said:

Nah.

Poor take. Lol at the offensive percentage deferc3

Math ain't easy 

I don't understand. If you pick Judge, you're essentially saying 27 home runs is more valuable than Ohtani's pitching this season.

[Blarg]

Ohtani's 27 starts leaves 26 starts to a 6th tier pitcher while reducing 6 or more starts from the 2-4 pitchers, which is worth far less than Judge's 27 additional home runs. 

[Lou]

7 hours ago, Blarg said:

Ohtani's 27 starts leaves 26 starts to a 6th tier pitcher while reducing 6 or more starts from the 2-4 pitchers, which is worth far less than Judge's 27 additional home runs. 

Huh? You're not adding in the value of Ohtani's pitching.

[happybat4]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Ohtani's 27 starts leaves 26 starts to a 6th tier pitcher while reducing 6 or more starts from the 2-4 pitchers, which is worth far less than Judge's 27 additional home runs. 

I'm to lazy to do the math, but your saying 161 innings of 2.35 ERA is worth less than a batter with 27 home runs? 

There's currently 29 players with 27 home runs this year. According to you they should all be paid like a starting pitcher with a 2.35 ERA.

 

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Huh? You're not adding in the value of Our who's pitching.

I believe the 6 man rotation is subtractive to the team, not additive. Ohtani is doing great on the personal stat side but to do so it puts the team at a competitive disadvantage by reducing all pitchers output value. Primarily the better pitchers that have a reduced amount of starts and those go to a pitcher with a lesser win probability. 

 

[Blarg]

20 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

I'm to lazy to do the math, but your saying 161 innings of 2.35 ERA is worth less than a batter with 27 home runs? 

There's currently 29 players with 27 home runs this year. According to you they should all be paid like a starting pitcher with a 2.35 ERA.

 

You're really off base in your logic and you never even tried to follow what I posted. 

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, happybat4 said:

I'm to lazy to do the math, but your saying 161 innings of 2.35 ERA is worth less than a batter with 27 home runs? 

There's currently 29 players with 27 home runs this year. According to you they should all be paid like a starting pitcher with a 2.35 ERA.

 

Don’t know what’s more valuable but it’s more than just 27 homers that Judge has an advantage over Ohtani on the hitting side.

[Hubs]

On 9/30/2022 at 11:45 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

It is calculated correctly. There is no such thing as replacement level pitcher offense.

Seriously dude? That's what you got out of my post?

I know its calculated correctly, but I was addressing with an error in offense. As a Pitcher, he really isn't a DH, he's playing the field, and so the positional calculation in their formulas penalizes him for playing at DH when he's actually playing a very important defensive position, on par with 2nd or CF or C, and one that virtually no other pitcher hits anymore, or ever had anything close to the offense, and one in which the replacement level is extremely low. 

So, for the 27 or 28 games he was a pitcher, he should get a bump for the position he is actually playing. They should get 7.5 runs added for every 150 games as a pitcher, or even more, maybe 12.5 or 15 instead of taking them away as a DH. Now they would proportionally do that, by innings, (1350), and as a pitcher he only did 166 or 167, pending his last start. That's 12.5% of that total, so could be as many as 3 or 4 runs or 0.3 or 0.4 when you account for the negative and positive positional adjustments.

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Seriously dude? That's what you got out of my post?

I know its calculated correctly, but I was addressing with an error in offense. As a Pitcher, he really isn't a DH, he's playing the field, and so the positional calculation in their formulas penalizes him for playing at DH when he's actually playing a very important defensive position, on par with 2nd or CF or C, and one that virtually no other pitcher hits anymore, or ever had anything close to the offense, and one in which the replacement level is extremely low. 

So, for the 27 or 28 games he was a pitcher, he should get a bump for the position he is actually playing. They should get 7.5 runs added for every 150 games as a pitcher, or even more, maybe 12.5 or 15 instead of taking them away as a DH. Now they would proportionally do that, by innings, (1350), and as a pitcher he only did 166 or 167, pending his last start. That's 12.5% of that total, so could be as many as 3 or 4 runs or 0.3 or 0.4 when you account for the negative and positive positional adjustments.

This is one of the few things Hubs and I agree upon.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Seriously dude? That's what you got out of my post?

I know its calculated correctly, but I was addressing with an error in offense. As a Pitcher, he really isn't a DH, he's playing the field, and so the positional calculation in their formulas penalizes him for playing at DH when he's actually playing a very important defensive position, on par with 2nd or CF or C, and one that virtually no other pitcher hits anymore, or ever had anything close to the offense, and one in which the replacement level is extremely low. 

So, for the 27 or 28 games he was a pitcher, he should get a bump for the position he is actually playing. They should get 7.5 runs added for every 150 games as a pitcher, or even more, maybe 12.5 or 15 instead of taking them away as a DH. Now they would proportionally do that, by innings, (1350), and as a pitcher he only did 166 or 167, pending his last start. That's 12.5% of that total, so could be as many as 3 or 4 runs or 0.3 or 0.4 when you account for the negative and positive positional adjustments.

I don't think I'm misunderstanding you, I think you are misinterpreting the positional adjustment in war.

I'm actually not sure where the defensive component for pitchers is calculated, but it's going to be a very small number, and Im sure Ohtani is getting credit for it in the same way all pitchers get credit for it. The replacement level for pitchers is going to be given to him in his pitcher war.

As a hitter he is strictly a DH, and there is nothing that distinguishes him from any other DH once you factor in that his performance as a pitcher/defender is already counted in his pitcher war. You have to think of him like two separate players, a starting pitcher and a DH. He is getting a replacement level credit for a SP in his pitcher war and a replacement level credit for a DH in his hitter war.

To give him a pitchers replacement level credit to his hitter war would imply that his bat could only be replaced by a pitchers bat, and not just any other batter. At no point in this season has the opponents DH spot been filled with a pitcher.

Ohtani = Pitcher War + Batter War

Pitcher War = Pitcher Replacement Level + Pitching Runs Saved Above Average + Defensive Runs Saved Above Average

Batter War = Batter Replacement Level + DH Positional Adjustment + Batting Runs Above Average + Defensive Runs Saved Above Average (Non-P/DH)

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

Does anyone actually know how Fangraphs is calculating his Positional Adjustment? Is it 100% DH? If so, I see the point that some are making - they're counting all of his plate appearances as DH, when some of the time he's actually playing a defensive position. But still, it is probably a smallish percentage - maybe 15% of the time? His WAR would adjust upward, but not by a huge amount: maybe a few tenths of a Win.

Regardless, Ohtani would win the MVP in 95% of seasons - maybe more. But Judge is having a historic season. His current 11.4 fWAR is:

- The best season by any active player

- The best season since Barry Bonds

- The 18th best position player season in baseball history, tied with #17, which was Mickey Mantle's second best season

- The highest non-Bondsian season since Mantle in 1957 (also 11.4; Mantle's best was 11.5 in 1956)

If he adds 0.2 fWAR in his remaining four games - he's well on pace for that - it will be the best non-Bondsian position player season since a pair from Ted Williams in the 1940s (11.8, 11.6). 

If he adds 0.6 and reaches 12.0, it will be only the 11th such season and the best non-Bondsian season since Ruth and Gehrig in 1927. Only Bonds, Ruth, and Gehrig have reached 12 WAR.

And really, the bottom line is this: Ohtani has added 9.3 Wins above replacement level, Judge 11.4 wins. Judge has been more valuable to his team than Ohtani. According to fWAR, at least (according to bWAR, Judge is at 10.5, the same as Trout's two highest seasons, and still below Betts' 10.7 in 2018).

Edited October 3, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[m0nkey]

Only 2 games left, he may actually end up not breaking the record.