Ohtani or Judge as MVP?

[Duren, Duren]

This has been discussed a little in various threads, but becomes more relevant as the season winds down. 

This may be the best comparison, based largely on analytics. But also acknowledging the effect of team performance. The historical comparisons and parallels make this quite a substantial debate.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34477118/aaron-judge-vs-shohei-ohtani-how-compare-two-radically-different-mvp-contenders

 

Unfortunately the built in bias of team history, glamor and current standings pretty much is summed up in this quote about Ohtani.

"It's just too bad he does all this for a lousy team".

One thing neglected in all discussions are the mental and preparatory sides of the comparison. Ohtani has to train, practice, and prepare for two entirely different disciplines. Physically he has to constantly keep his grooves and avoid slumps both for hitting and pitching. And he has more health risks because of the fragile nature of a pitcher's arm. Thus he not only has to work on his swing and mechanics and study pitchers, but he has to be ready to throw up to a hundred quality pitches every sixth game and study scouting reports on hitters. 

And still be an elite hitter while his arm is recovering in the days between starts.

Judge just has to hit home runs to be the MVP. He is having a nice season overall at the plate, but it's only the home run dimension that has him the focus of attention.

Defensively he is good, not great. On the bases, Ohtani is clearly superior. 

Voters already acknowledged Ohtani last year, so probably want to have a new narrative. Especially if it's Yankee oriented. And the team fortunes are a real factor too. But with a month plus still remaining the story is still being written. 

 

[Jay]

11 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

Voters already acknowledged Ohtani last year, so probably want to have a new narrative. Especially if it's Yankee oriented. And the team fortunes are a real factor too. But with a month plus still remaining the story is still being written. 

Not sure what this means. Either voters were wrong to elect Ohtani last year, or they are wrong this year by not electing him.

 

[Blarg]

I think what is killing voters is they can't just look at OPS and home runs and say, that's the guy. They have to dig a little deeper as to everything included in the players profile. 

Ohtani is 6th in OPS. But the gap between the two is wider than simply Ohtani has a .882 ops and Judge is 1.057. The gap in OPS+ is much wider. Ohtani is 147, Judge is a video game level 197 this late into he season. 

As far as offense stats, Judge is destroying the league. He could very well be more value as a right fielder than a pitcher/DH. Judge can't pitch but Ohtani doesn't pitch in a 5 man rotation and that actually handcuffs the team to insert a 6th man into the rotation.

No team has 6 quality arms, few have 5 and the Angels are no exceptions. So other teams may have an advantage in putting their #1 & 2 pitchers on the mound 6 to 8 more times a year than the Angels can without putting on the mound a 4A pitcher to cover the 6th game gap. 

What Ohatani can do is amazing. What it costs the team to allow him to do that... In a close race for MVP that would definitely be part of my evaluation of each players value. 

[m0nkey]

As of today, it's Judge but wouldn't rule out a crazy Ohtani run and Judge "slump" to close it out.

[Jay]

I guess they're saying on fangraphs that Ohtani's WAR as a position player is 3.1 and his WAR as a pitcher is 4.0 for a total of 7.1 ?

Judge is at 8.1.

 

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Jay said:

I guess they're saying on fangraphs that Ohtani's WAR as a position player is 3.1 and his WAR as a pitcher is 4.0 for a total of 7.1 ?

Judge is at 8.1.

 

Thank goodness Arte Moreno is selling the team.

Don’t need a guy turning 31 being signed to at least a $300 million deal.

Been there, done that, and with outside FAs, it has been mostly ugggly.

[CaliAngel]

If Judge wasn't wearing that uniform getting the stankee advantage with pitch calls and playing half his games in that bandbox his numbers wouldn't be nearly what they are.

If the judges overlooked "team performance" like they did last year, and in Trout's MVP seasons, no reason to think they won't do it again. As much as MLB might not like it, I think Ohtani has more fans than Judge. 

[m0nkey]

64 games: .301/.388/.674/1.061

vs

61 games: .286/.404/.647/.1052 

Which is home, which is away?

[eligrba]

4 hours ago, Jay said:

I guess they're saying on fangraphs that Ohtani's WAR as a position player is 3.1 and his WAR as a pitcher is 4.0 for a total of 7.1 ?

Judge is at 8.1.

 

I think people can't understand what Ohtani does or how difficult it really is. The guy is competing at the highest level playing in two completely different roles and doing extremely well in both.

How is it possible for Ohtani to not win the Cy Young award?  What are the offensive numbers for the other pitchers in the Cy Young conversation?

[Slegnaac]

The guy that won the triple crown a few years ago beat out Trout for MVP.

If Judge hits 61 or more, I think that seals it for him.

[jsnpritchett]

1 hour ago, CaliAngel said:

If Judge wasn't wearing that uniform getting the stankee advantage with pitch calls and playing half his games in that bandbox his numbers wouldn't be nearly what they are.

If the judges overlooked "team performance" like they did last year, and in Trout's MVP seasons, no reason to think they won't do it again. As much as MLB might not like it, I think Ohtani has more fans than Judge. 

Judge at home: .301/.388/.674, 1.061 OPS, 27 HR in 64 games

Judge on the road: .286/.404/.647, 1.052 OPS, 23 HR in 61 games.

As usual, you're wrong.

(Also, just for comparison: Ohtani has an OPS of 1.021 at home and .751 on the road...)

 

[m0nkey]

1 hour ago, m0nkey said:

64 games: .301/.388/.674/1.061

vs

61 games: .286/.404/.647/.1052 

Which is home, which is away?

 

35 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Judge at home: .301/.388/.674, 1.061 OPS, 27 HR in 64 games

Judge on the road: .286/.404/.647, 1.052 OPS, 23 HR in 61 games.

As usual, you're wrong.

(Also, just for comparison: Ohtani has an OPS of 1.021 at home and .751 on the road...)

 

Couldn’t have said it better myself

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, m0nkey said:

 

Couldn’t have said it better myself

Whoops, sorry!  I somehow skipped right over that before I responded.

[m0nkey]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Whoops, sorry!  I somehow skipped right over that before I responded.

Can’t blame you, I take advantage of every opportunity to jump on those posts

[CaliAngel]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Judge at home: .301/.388/.674, 1.061 OPS, 27 HR in 64 games

Judge on the road: .286/.404/.647, 1.052 OPS, 23 HR in 61 games.

As usual, you're wrong.

(Also, just for comparison: Ohtani has an OPS of 1.021 at home and .751 on the road...)

 

So he's better in the bandbox, where he plays more than half his games, as usual, my point stands. 

Thanks for the help. 

We can only imagine what Ohtani's numbers would be if he played there that often. 

 

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

So he's better in the bandbox, where he plays more than half his games. 

Thanks. 

Imagine what Ohtani's numbers would be if he played there that often. 

 

No, he's essentially the exact same player at home and on the road this season.  Are you actually quibbling over a .009 difference in OPS?  If you just double his road numbers, he'd still blow Ohtani away in total stats.  Don't be dumb.

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

So he's better in the bandbox, where he plays more than half his games, as usual, my point stands. 

Thanks for the help. 

We can only imagine what Ohtani's numbers would be if he played there that often. 

 

Heh, knucklehead, ever hear of OPS+? That neutralizes any park advantages so it is more indicative of real performance instead of park assisted like Coors field.

Judge OPS+ 197

Ohtani OPS+ 147

 

[happybat4]

12 hours ago, Slegnaac said:

The guy that won the triple crown a few years ago beat out Trout for MVP.

If Judge hits 61 or more, I think that seals it for him.

Except Trout had a sizable lead in War, like Judge does over Ohtani.

[happybat4]

10 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

So he's better in the bandbox, where he plays more than half his games, as usual, my point stands. 

Thanks for the help. 

We can only imagine what Ohtani's numbers would be if he played there that often. 

 

His OPS+ is better on the road 

[Stradling]

12 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

So he's better in the bandbox, where he plays more than half his games, as usual, my point stands. 

Thanks for the help. 

We can only imagine what Ohtani's numbers would be if he played there that often. 

 

Why would he play “more than half” his games at home?  wouldn’t he play half his games at home?  

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Why would he play “more than half” his games at home?  wouldn’t he play half his games at home?  

[m0nkey]

More than half the posts in this thread are related to Cali’s intelligent posts. 
 

He has to be a troll to boost site traffic

[Taylor]

Yeah CaliAngel is just trolling us at this point.

[Stradling]

33 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Yeah CaliAngel is just trolling us at this point.

That would explain a lot. 

[Blarg]

I'm going with dropout from College University.