Ohtani or Judge as MVP?

[beatlesrule]

I have not been watching his at bats and it seems like they are pitching around him but man, he is cutting it extremely close.

[m0nkey]

3 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Only 2 games left, he may actually end up not breaking the record.

Next at bat, clock work

[gurn67]

As far as I'm concerned, he's the single season home run record holder, and no one hates the Yankees more than me. Too bad all the cheaters had to ruin what should have been a great moment for him, and all baseball fans.

[Angelsjunky]

Solution: Forgo an NL MVP and give two AL MVPs to Judge and Ohtani. I mean:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war

[m0nkey]

Well this settles it:

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[Hubs]

On 10/3/2022 at 1:57 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

I don't think I'm misunderstanding you, I think you are misinterpreting the positional adjustment in war.

I'm actually not sure where the defensive component for pitchers is calculated, but it's going to be a very small number, and Im sure Ohtani is getting credit for it in the same way all pitchers get credit for it. The replacement level for pitchers is going to be given to him in his pitcher war.

As a hitter he is strictly a DH, and there is nothing that distinguishes him from any other DH once you factor in that his performance as a pitcher/defender is already counted in his pitcher war. You have to think of him like two separate players, a starting pitcher and a DH. He is getting a replacement level credit for a SP in his pitcher war and a replacement level credit for a DH in his hitter war.

To give him a pitchers replacement level credit to his hitter war would imply that his bat could only be replaced by a pitchers bat, and not just any other batter. At no point in this season has the opponents DH spot been filled with a pitcher.

Ohtani = Pitcher War + Batter War

Pitcher War = Pitcher Replacement Level + Pitching Runs Saved Above Average + Defensive Runs Saved Above Average

Batter War = Batter Replacement Level + DH Positional Adjustment + Batting Runs Above Average + Defensive Runs Saved Above Average (Non-P/DH)

 

 

I know exactly the reason for Positional WAR, and I think it's flawed when it comes to Ohtani. You disagree. End of argument.

He's not a DH, really, when he is a pitcher. The Positional Adjustment for DH therefore, should be removed, while he's a pitcher because it's there to compensate for great hitters who are DH's. He is the starting pitcher, he should be factored in as a pitcher defensively. The positional Adjustment and DRS are not the same thing. I know WAR doesn't take into account pitchers hitting, but in this case it should.

 

 

 

 

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

7 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I know exactly the reason for Positional WAR, and I think it's flawed when it comes to Ohtani. You disagree. End of argument.

He's not a DH, really, when he is a pitcher. The Positional Adjustment for DH therefore, should be removed, while he's a pitcher because it's there to compensate for great hitters who are DH's. He is the starting pitcher, he should be factored in as a pitcher defensively. The positional Adjustment and DRS are not the same thing. I know WAR doesn't take into account pitchers hitting, but in this case it should.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't know man, I'm looking at this from your perspective and I don't see an argument, you are just incorrect. There are issues with positional adjustments, and this ties into DRS, but unless there is a specific issue with the calculation or we want to tackle the brokenness of the DH adjustment in general this is not one of them. 

Fundamentally, when Ohtani is written into the lineup his bat can be replaced by anyone on the roster, not just a pitcher. In other words, his offensive replacement level is that of a DH, not a pitcher. You are advocating for him to be treated like a NL pitcher prior to this year, but that does not align with the rules in place in the AL or all MLB this year. 

A DH adjustment is around -3 runs for every 100 PAs. A pitcher adjustment should be around +15 runs over 100 PA (0 wRC+ baseline). That is an 18 run difference over 100 PAs. Take this to a per game level, at 4 PAs, that's .72 runs per game when he pitches. That's huge - there is no way the Angels are benefiting to that level each game before he swings the bat. If you add up both teams replacement levels the Angels will always be +.72 runs over their opponents, where as every other game will have both teams even at 0.

 

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I don't know man, I'm looking at this from your perspective and I don't see an argument, you are just incorrect. There are issues with positional adjustments, and this ties into DRS, but unless there is a specific issue with the calculation or we want to tackle the brokenness of the DH adjustment in general this is not one of them. 

Fundamentally, when Ohtani is written into the lineup his bat can be replaced by anyone on the roster, not just a pitcher. In other words, his offensive replacement level is that of a DH, not a pitcher. You are advocating for him to be treated like a NL pitcher prior to this year, but that does not align with the rules in place in the AL or all MLB this year. 

A DH adjustment is around -3 runs for every 100 PAs. A pitcher adjustment should be around +15 runs over 100 PA (0 wRC+ baseline). That is an 18 run difference over 100 PAs. Take this to a per game level, at 4 PAs, that's .72 runs per game when he pitches. That's huge - there is no way the Angels are benefiting to that level each game before he swings the bat. If you add up both teams replacement levels the Angels will always be +.72 runs over their opponents, where as every other game will have both teams even at 0.

 

I really don't think I could make my case better. So you disagree. 

That's fine. 

My point has merit, you just don't see it. 

That's fine.

I think your adjustments are a little too much. It's like 0.3-0.4 WAR total when you take away the -17.5 runs times the innings he's pitched /1350. (150*9) 166 or 167 / 1350 is 12.3% of 17.5 = 2 runs, 12.3% of 7.5 is 1. 3 runs is 0.3 WAR.

I see how you'd think he'd be replaced as a DH, but he isn't a DH. He's a SP. They should adjust him as such.

 

 

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

28 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I really don't think I could make my case better. So you disagree. 

That's fine. 

My point has merit, you just don't see it. 

That's fine.

I think your adjustments are a little too much. It's like 0.3-0.4 WAR total when you take away the -17.5 runs times the innings he's pitched /1350. (150*9) 166 or 167 / 1350 is 12.3% of 17.5 = 2 runs, 12.3% of 7.5 is 1. 3 runs is 0.3 WAR.

I see how you'd think he'd be replaced as a DH, but he isn't a DH. He's a SP. They should adjust him as such.

 

 

 

Ok, I see you are not trying to give him the pitcher positional adjustment, but simply remove the negative DH adjustment. That's a lot different.

While I don't think this is the correct way to approach this Ohtani does create theoretical additional value on the day he pitches and hits by opening up a roster spot. I had previously estimated this value coincidentally around 0.3 war per season. Using your positional adjustment, in theory if Ohtani pitched every inning of every game that'd come out to about 1.75 war per year, which is definitely too high for a bonus roster spot.

Ultimately you can't remove the DH adjustment because the number is too high, but you are getting at one aspect in which Ohtani is slightly under valued and that is in his ability to fill 2 lineup spots at the same time, and thus create an extra spot on the roster. In other words, I do think maybe they could create a 'two way' positional adjustment that would be about -14.5 runs, rather than -17.5.

 

[Angels Never Die]

I'm very biased towards Shohei, but I hope I'm being somewhat objective when I say that this mvp debate is simple math, but Judge has the sentimental and the classic team result edge. Judge will win, especially when voters usually want to choose different winners if they can due to voter fatigue.

[happybat4]

2 hours ago, Angels Never Die said:

I'm very biased towards Shohei, but I hope I'm being somewhat objective when I say that this mvp debate is simple math, but Judge has the sentimental and the classic team result edge. Judge will win, especially when voters usually want to choose different winners if they can due to voter fatigue.

Judge also has the analytical edge. 

[Angelsjunky]

43 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

Judge also has the analytical edge. 

Yes, if by "analytical" you mean WAR, which has enormous influence these days. That said, most people--and presumably most voters--use BR, and Judge's edge isn't as large: about +1.2 vs +2.0 for Fangraphs.

[Angelsjunky]

Here's my estimate of MVP voting:

90% Judge MVP

5% Ohtani MVP

5% co-MVPs