OK Perry, time to sell

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

I like Berriros, but I'm not blind.  He's essentially the good version of Ervin Santana.

I went to Santana's google images to try and find a good one to make a lame joke about "evil santana".

Saw this one. He looks like The Predator, if the predator was amish

 

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Who would be a fair trade for Adell?  Not a wish list but something the other team might actually do?  Castillo? Marquez?

I dont think Adell is enough for either of those guys.   But I'd look at Miami's situation -- they have been willing to move controllable arms in the recent past..  They also need bats in a big way and they are a team that would value Adell's power.  The NL in general tends to value power, a byproduct of pitcher's hitting maybe.

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I went to Santana's google images to try and find a good one to make a lame joke about "evil santana".

Saw this one. He looks like The Predator, if the predator was amish

 

Not gonna lie, if there’s no takers for someone like Watson, I’d flip him for Ervin and let him finish his career here in Guerra’s role.

[Tank]

all this time i thought berrios was already in our system as a minor leaguer. glad i looked at his baseball reference page.

nothing about his numbers said "trade adell for him" as fair value (recognizing that i don't dig as deep into stats as several others here). i think adell ought to be able to fetch us more than someone who looks on the surface to be a rather mediocre pitcher.

[ettin]

9 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I dont think Adell is enough for either of those guys.   But I'd look at Miami's situation -- they have been willing to move controllable arms in the recent past..  They also need bats in a big way and they are a team that would value Adell's power.  The NL in general tends to value power, a byproduct of pitcher's hitting maybe.

Give me some Pablo Lopez....

[Angels Fan Forever]

17 minutes ago, Tank said:

someone who looks on the surface to be a rather mediocre pitcher.

Berrios mediocre? That's an uninformed statement. Wow. Mediocre.

The one year of control is my only concern, not his performance or ability.

[Docwaukee]

Adell for 1yr of a decent pitcher?  That would be a horrible mistake. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Depends if the pitcher has enough consistent velo to put it past people up in the zone! CROD, Ohtani, Raisel. Cobb stays down most of the time with all his pitches showing 3 home runs. 

Mayers throws hard zero movement or tail ! 4 seam straight as an arrow! His breaking ball and location mostly are for show and chase! 

Even Haeney can put it by guys when he elevates! But, is more effective down and then show up and go back down. It's a pitching philosophy and target setup catcher philosophy deal.

(Think of it as one side not talking to the other and then not communicating on strengths of pitcher or game plans). *That's why Suzuki is still here even with his other skills declining! What hasn't declined his his knowledge of the game or strikezone. He can milk a few innings and hitters out of pitchers.* It's looks dysfunctional if you've played the game at a high level. 

Cobb calls his own game and changes his pitches and locations or calls timeout and actually talks to his catcher. Haven't seen anyone do that in a while here since Weaver/Lackey/Haren. 

It's a confidence/mental thing. EVERYONE was writing about Cobb's leadership qualities... He knows how to pitch and how to be effective within his game.

Look at the era's for the starters depending on who catches them. Not the catchers individually. Look at what the pitchers do with each battery mate all season long. Then if there is video of the game look at where the setup consistently is. When you are watching the game you're thinking we'll crap he missed his spot! Or, the pitcher over threw that pitch and it flattened out! But, if that pitch dropped down below the knees, or flattened out off the plate it is taken for a ball and not driven over the fence or in the gap!

Sometimes, you have to step away from mechanics and watching the game. And looking at your setup! Same reason why the over shift has been a crap shoot because the pitch called and executed hasn't been in the right location for that shift.

I would play corners on the line or off depending on the hitter and shade the middle normal. We had 3 hits against Seattle that should had been a double play if the shortstop was playing double play depth and not over shifted. 

That's also on Maddon playing a shift. Which may be the right call until the rest of that single pitch and spot blows up from location, to not as much left/right range by your infielder to a complete circus play. Where the catcher setup high on an off speed pitch, the pitcher turned the ball over instead of spinning it, the defense coach moved the shortstop 2 extra steps to the right.... Then it looks like it never ends and you are like wtf why didn't he get that, or how did it get through.

Overall, the game isn't that hard! Until you over think it!

As a pitcher... You can look at a hitters stance, his hands, his practice swing, his BP, the situation,  chatting teammates up if he is having issues at home, sleeplessness etc. And pretty much know how to get a hitter out!

The problem comes in the execution of said pitch or at bat!

That's also why we drafted older college kids. They have a general feel for their abilities and just need fine tuning or adjusting and they can move quick!

A high school kid rarely knows what his change up will do if he turns it over compared to throwing it normally. Or, if he places a little finger pressure on his outside finger the ball rotation will do this....etc! That's what you read feel for pitching...

It's all relative.

I could had told you each pitch Kap threw the other day and why. Kid had everything back in high school at Beckman. It was the mental side and making more $$$$ eventually and draft round, and any significant injuries. He was going to get there! That was a given. Most driven kid I've ever met. His mom was a battler and she instilled that in him as well. 

[Angelsjunky]

 

7 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

Berrios mediocre? That's an uninformed statement. Wow. Mediocre.

The one year of control is my only concern, not his performance or ability.

18th best pitching WAR from 2017-21 is NOT "mediocre." Part of that is consistency and health - he's 10th in innings pitched over that span of time. Again, he is--at the least--a very good #3. Especially for a team like the Angels, who have problem getting quality starts, he would be a big plus.

As I said, I think Adell for him is reasonable and about what it would. I think it makes tactical sense for the Angels, even though my heart wants to see what Adell can become - as an Angel.

 

[Angels Fan Forever]

I am liking the idea of a potential trade package with the Marlins. It looks like we match up well with their needs - we need pitching, they need hitting.

If we could acquire either Alcantara (control through 24) or Rogers (control through 26) or Lopez (control through 24) it would be a coup. I saw the Marlins said everyone is on the table but either of those two would take a lot. But it's time to be bold and build a rotation for 22.

A package including Adell for Rogers would be interesting because we passed on Rogers in the 2017 draft to pick Adell 10th. Rogers went to the Marlins 13th.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

36 minutes ago, ettin said:

Give me some Pablo Lopez....

I said that a week-ten days ago and people said he was untouchable due to his years of service time.... 

[Tank]

34 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

Berrios mediocre? That's an uninformed statement. Wow. Mediocre.

The one year of control is my only concern, not his performance or ability.

sure, and as i said i don't dive into stats as deeply as others here. i wasn't terribly impressed by what i saw on his baseball reference page. i wouldn't trade adell for him, especially if he only has one year of control left.

[beatlesrule]

 

I have been wanting to trade Adell for years now. Most of you bit my head off. I am reading his name more and more on here in trade proposals by some of the same posters that typed he was untradeable and a future superstar. Why are you all of a sudden wanting to trade him for just a SP that's 27 and isn't a top 3 pitcher?? Surely Adell is worth at least 5 players. He is going to be a superstar after all.

[Stradling]

Just now, beatlesrule said:

 

I have been wanting to trade Adell for years now. Most of you bit my head off. I am reading his name more and more on here in trade proposals by some of the same posters that typed he was untradeable and a future superstar. Why are you all of a sudden wanting to trade him for just a SP that's 27 and isn't a top 3 pitcher?? Surely Adell is worth at least 5 players. He is going to be a superstar after all.

While you are patting yourself on the back please remember that you’ll also be disappointed if his career ends up like Justin Upton’s career where he ends up with 350-400 home runs and a career war around 40.   You also got your head but off for pretending we could trade him for Yelich when at the time he had less prospect value as the guy traded for Adell. But go on tell us more about how you were wronged.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

An argument could be made that the team could trade from a place of depth by going further down the pipeline.  The Angels OF could be a position of need as Upton's deal runs out next season.  I personally wouldn't do Adell for Berrios because of the lack of control with Berrios.  I value years of control almost as much as I do run prevention.   Adell's significant amount of control and proximity to MLB gives him a boost in value regardless of what people think last season did to his prospect status.   

I know many here have punted on the kid, but Adell's profile is still decidedly better than say Nick Williams was when he was the big get in the Cole Hamels trade (who had four years of control) or that of Lewis Brinson's when he was the big name in the Yelich trade (who had 5/6 years of control).

Anyway, Adell makes all kinds of sense for the Twins given their situation with Buxton.  

I forgot about Brinson...he really didn't turn out.

Anyhow, I basically agree. I'm not punting on Adell; actually, I was looking at his overall stats and thinking, "20 walks in 64 games isn't horrible." He's now at 6.7 BB% to 29.3K%...not great, but no longer horrible. Meaning, he's going in the right direction.

I think it was Doc who said that at some point, Adell is just going to have to learn on the job - in the majors. So while it may be wise to cook him a bit more in AAA, I don't think we should wait for him to be a polished product. He's just going to need to evolve and adapt in the majors. So I wouldn't be surprised to see him in August, even, especially with the health concerns for Trout and Upton. As I said in another thread or earlier in this one (can't remember), I think there is a distinct possibility that we're see an outfield next year of Trout, Upton, Marsh, and Adell, with all four getting anywhere from 100 to 140 starts, depending on health and performance. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

18th best pitching WAR from 2017-21 is NOT "mediocre." Part of that is consistency and health - he's 10th in innings pitched over that span of time. Again, he is--at the least--a very good #3. Especially for a team like the Angels, who have problem getting quality starts, he would be a big plus.

First...  I wouldn't call the guy mediocre either...

Now.... on to the bullshit:  Fun with numbers/facts and why people hate stats

Among pitchers who have pitched at least 700 innings*** 2017-2021, Berrios ranks second to last in fWAR.  He has the third highest ERA, the second highest FIP.  His K/9 Rate is the third worst.   

*** Only 11 pitchers total. 

His ability to pile up innings positively impacts his fWAR total which is also how Jose Quintana ends up being the 31st best pitcher in MLB from 2017-2020 (only 2.0 fWAR behind Berrios), over that span. The fact is that Berrios' greatest asset/value comes from his consistency and ability to pile up quality innings  -- But if you comp him to other pitchers with similar workloads he's bottom tier.

Am I arguing he sucks?  NOPE..   Mostly I'm just having fun with how stats can be contorted to fit a narrative.

Berrios has been a good compiler..  and again, that doesn't make him shitty, it makes him a good number three like AJ says.

[Inside Pitch]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I forgot about Brinson...he really didn't turn out.

Anyhow, I basically agree. I'm not punting on Adell; actually, I was looking at his overall stats and thinking, "20 walks in 64 games isn't horrible." He's now at 6.7 BB% to 29.3K%...not great, but no longer horrible. Meaning, he's going in the right direction.

I think it was Doc who said that at some point, Adell is just going to have to learn on the job - in the majors. So while it may be wise to cook him a bit more in AAA, I don't think we should wait for him to be a polished product. He's just going to need to evolve and adapt in the majors. So I wouldn't be surprised to see him in August, even, especially with the health concerns for Trout and Upton. As I said in another thread or earlier in this one (can't remember), I think there is a distinct possibility that we're see an outfield next year of Trout, Upton, Marsh, and Adell, with all four getting anywhere from 100 to 140 starts, depending on health and performance. 

I agree with Doc and I agree with you on Adell likely being a fair offer.  I don't know that I make that deal but I fully believe that's the sort of deal Berrios will command -- if not more.

PS.... Also, wasn't trying to imply you were punting on the kid.

[Inside Pitch]

14 minutes ago, Tank said:

sure, and as i said i don't dive into stats as deeply as others here. i wasn't terribly impressed by what i saw on his baseball reference page. i wouldn't trade adell for him, especially if he only has one year of control left.

That's the rub.....   

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

28 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I forgot about Brinson...he really didn't turn out.

Anyhow, I basically agree. I'm not punting on Adell; actually, I was looking at his overall stats and thinking, "20 walks in 64 games isn't horrible." He's now at 6.7 BB% to 29.3K%...not great, but no longer horrible. Meaning, he's going in the right direction.

I think it was Doc who said that at some point, Adell is just going to have to learn on the job - in the majors. So while it may be wise to cook him a bit more in AAA, I don't think we should wait for him to be a polished product. He's just going to need to evolve and adapt in the majors. So I wouldn't be surprised to see him in August, even, especially with the health concerns for Trout and Upton. As I said in another thread or earlier in this one (can't remember), I think there is a distinct possibility that we're see an outfield next year of Trout, Upton, Marsh, and Adell, with all four getting anywhere from 100 to 140 starts, depending on health and performance. 

And that comes back to confidence and working on his swing and plate discipline while knowing his abilities and what he can do to be successful.

 

 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

31 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

First...  I wouldn't call the guy mediocre either...

Now.... on to the bullshit:  Fun with numbers/facts and why people hate stats

Among pitchers who have pitched at least 700 innings*** 2017-2021, Berrios ranks second to last in fWAR.  He has the third highest ERA, the second highest FIP.  His K/9 Rate is the third worst.   

*** Only 11 pitchers total. 

His ability to pile up innings positively impacts his fWAR total which is also how Jose Quintana ends up being the 31st best pitcher in MLB from 2017-2020 (only 2.0 fWAR behind Berrios), over that span. The fact is that Berrios' greatest asset/value comes from his consistency and ability to pile up quality innings  -- But if you comp him to other pitchers with similar workloads he's bottom tier.

Am I arguing he sucks?  NOPE..   Mostly I'm just having fun with how stats can be contorted to fit a narrative.

Berrios has been a good compiler..  and again, that doesn't make him shitty, it makes him a good number three like AJ says.

Also depends on organizational pitching philosophy! If it's quality pitches and getting ahead down in the zone!

He may not fair well on a team that focuses on VELO up in the zone and spin rate of offspeed stuff in the dirt or out of the zone. Swing and miss %...

 

It's all relative!

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

I would look at teams that have a similar pitching philosophy as us. And say those arms may be a better fit on our roster!

There is a reason why players filter to the same teams or organizations trade with the same teams, or pickup guys on waivers when GM's change teams. Or, GMs grab guys from other teams. 

It's what they did well previously. And sometimes they fail beyond what they did well before then pop back on the radar with another team later on getting back to success!

Eppy's thought process was Velo and strikeouts % that only works if you have guys who throw more than 1 pitch consistently in the zone and have command! 96mph straight eventually will get hammered in a 15-20 pitch inning at the Big League Level !!!

It's all relative!

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

That's why I say what I do about the Stats, %'s and analytics! If your flawed and don't use it or the abilities to those situations then you are flawed and exposed in the end.

You have a guy with a great cutter who throws it 60% of the time! You won't give that guy a high target up in the zone because the ball will break back down over the middle of the plate!

Hunter Strickland great example. Did well in 12 games in Tampa. Got lit up here was DFA and is doing well again in Milwaukee! People say small sample size but add up the appearances now?...And for every example there is a dude like Bedrock! Looked the part no sack!

The wheel doesn't need to be reinvented! It needs to be improved.

It's all relative!

[ettin]

1 hour ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

I said that a week-ten days ago and people said he was untouchable due to his years of service time.... 

Then they are idoits!

[ettin]

23 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

That's why I say what I do about the Stats, %'s and analytics! If your flawed and don't use it or the abilities to those situations then you are flawed and exposed in the end.

You have a guy with a great cutter who throws it 60% of the time! You won't give that guy a high target up in the zone because the ball will break back down over the middle of the plate!

Hunter Strickland great example. Did well in 12 games in Tampa. Got lit up here was DFA and is doing well again in Milwaukee! People say small sample size but add up the appearances now?...And for every example there is a dude like Bedrock! Looked the part no sack!

The wheel doesn't need to be reinvented! It needs to be improved.

It's all relative!

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

While you are patting yourself on the back please remember that you’ll also be disappointed if his career ends up like Justin Upton’s career where he ends up with 350-400 home runs and a career war around 40.   You also got your head but off for pretending we could trade him for Yelich when at the time he had less prospect value as the guy traded for Adell. But go on tell us more about how you were wronged.  

I always love these "vindication" posts where people pretend they were this lone voice of reason and everyone was against them -- heroes in their own minds every one of them.   

The ONLY time I can remember Beatles bring up trading Adell was when he would pat himself on the back for having wanted to trade for Yelich and the only thing people would mention was he was traded for four guys including the number 13 prospect in all of baseball and that Adell had nowhere near the value after only having played in 40+ games.