OK Perry, time to sell

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

He’s right except Barria’s ERA+ Is not better than Cannings.  

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He’s right except Barria’s ERA+ Is not better than Cannings.  

Reread I added to my comment.

[Inside Pitch]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Hmm, sounds similar to what was said about Zack Wheeler. 

Wheeler, pre-Phillies: 126 G, 749 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 100 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP, 8.4 H9, 0.9 HR9, 3.2 BB9, 8.7 K9, ages 23-29
Berrios, minus 1st yr: 121 G, 716 IP, 3.80 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 115 ERA+, 1.19 WHIP, 8 H9, 1.1 HR9, 2.7 BB9, 9.1 K9, ages 23-27

Wheeler's been a monster since. 30 GS, 2.61 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 159 ERA+.

You're talking to the guy who was cheerleading for Wheeler while you guys were doing your Gerrit Cole song and dance...  

Berrios hasn't come close to showing the potential for dominance Wheeler did, nor is he a four pitch threat.  Berrios is exactly the sort of pitcher I wouldn't compare to Wheeler based on stats alone..   He's been perfectly healthy.  He's not seen his career or his development slowed/curtailed by injuries, he's also never shown himself capable of hitting 97-98 regularly -- he is a safe bet to continue to be what he's been the last few years and there is value there without needing to try to hype him up or compare him to someone like Wheeler.
 

23 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He might be 'overrated', but I'd gladly take that gamble. We don't have anyone else in the system who really has an upside like he does.  Even Detmers, Rodriguez, Canning, Bachman usually get mentioned with a ceiling around a #2 type. Berrios has #1 ability. 

There is no need to attempt to be cute and frame overrated in quotation marks, his career 106 ERA is proof of it..   It's funny because the underlying data that made Wheeler underrated (raw ERA) is also what screams Berrios is overrated.   Being overrated doesn't mean he's shitty.  He's anything but.

I think he's as safe a bet to give a team 3-5 years of 180-210 innings at somewhere around 115 ERA, unfortunately he's only guaranteed to stick around for 1 year beyond this one.  That and and his stated desire to fully test FA is good reason for pause.

BTW... You know who's a good comp for him -- FB, CB, changeup (better FB though), the Chicago White Sox version of Joe Quintana.  Both guys pitched to their peripherals, both were steady IP eaters, Quintana was actually better using ERA and the sort, but I'd argue Berrios offers more upside than Quintana did.  Know what the big difference was?  Quintana was locked up on a team friendly contract through 2020....  and I still bet the Cubs still wish they had not made that deal.

 

[Angelsjunky]

What is most noteworthy about Berrios is his remarkable consistency. He's basically been good Heaney for going on five years now, with no significant deviation. I mean, its almost uncanny: His ERA has been between 3.68 to 4.00 each of the last five years, with similar FIP ranges.

What I see is a good #3 starter, even a "2.5" due to his consistency. With one more arbitration year and only 27 years old, he has significant value - but not crazy value. 

I think a one-to-one trade of Adell for Berrios is about right, but I wouldn't trade Marsh for him.

[Inside Pitch]

On 7/21/2021 at 12:44 PM, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

There was no whining I was pointing out there was a difference comparing career numbers between the players.  I thought we were having a discussion yet you immediately go into condescending defensive mode accusing others of overvaluing someone not on the Angels and you're doing exactly that with guys who haven't pitched over 150 innings in the majors.  If the Angels acquire a legit arm I hope that guy produces and if they don't and/or Suarez/Sandoval are still on the team I hope they continue to produce. 

Guess you got triggered by the word "whining" or was it the usage of numbers to prove he's being overrated?  I do hope you'll be able to get over it because your continued whining is tiresome .  I'm not overvaluing anyone, I've neither offered an opinion on the respective value of any Angels pitchers or been critical of any trade scenarios and as I pointed out in the very post you're currently whining about, I only used in-season ERA+ as a way to frame what Berrios' has done for perspective.  It was not intended nor was it used as a head to head comparison.  

You'll find it's easier to argue your position if you avoid trying to misrepresenting others.  

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're talking to the guy who was cheerleading for Wheeler while you guys were doing your Gerrit Cole song and dance...  

Berrios hasn't come close to showing the potential for dominance Wheeler did, nor is he a four pitch threat.  Berrios is exactly the sort of pitcher I wouldn't compare to Wheeler based on stats alone..   He's been perfectly healthy.  He's not seen his career or his development slowed/curtailed by injuries, he's also never shown himself capable of hitting 97-98 regularly -- he is a safe bet to continue to be what he's been the last few years and there is value there without needing to try to hype him up or compare him to someone like Wheeler.
 

There is no need to attempt to be cute and frame overrated in quotation marks, his career 106 ERA is proof of it..   It's funny because the underlying data that made Wheeler underrated (raw ERA) is also what screams Berrios is overrated.   Being overrated doesn't mean he's shitty.  He's anything but.

I think he's as safe a bet to give a team 3-5 years of 180-210 innings at somewhere around 115 ERA, unfortunately he's only guaranteed to stick around for 1 year beyond this one.  That and and his stated desire to fully test FA is good reason for pause.

BTW... You know who's a good comp for him -- FB, CB, changeup (better FB though), the Chicago White Sox version of Joe Quintana.  Both guys pitched to their peripherals, both were steady IP eaters, Quintana was actually better using ERA and the sort, but I'd argue Berrios offers more upside than Quintana did.  Know what the big difference was?  Quintana was locked up on a team friendly contract through 2020....  and I still bet the Cubs still wish they had not made that deal.

 

So...what's wrong with that? haha. We need pitching and he's a good pitcher. Good Ervin Santana? Jose Quintana? Berrios' career to date? All would be welcome in the 2022 Angels' rotation. Should we be aiming higher and spending more in trade capital? Should we spend money in FA for a mid-tier comparable arm even though those bust fairly often? Should we keep hoping someone like Canning ascends to that in maybe his fourth season?

Edited July 21, 2021 by totdprods

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What is most noteworthy about Berrios is his remarkable consistency. He's basically been good Heaney for going on five years now, with no significant deviation. I mean, its almost uncanny: His ERA has been between 3.68 to 4.00 each of the last five years, with similar FIP ranges.

What I see is a good #3 starter, even a "2.5" due to his consistency. With one more arbitration year and only 27 years old, he has significant value - but not crazy value. 

I think a one-to-one trade of Adell for Berrios is about right, but I wouldn't trade Marsh for him.

Yep..  There is a shit ton of value to his consistency.   And Adell for him is probably a fair trade.  They are still giving up a lot of controllable years but you won't get him for peanuts.

[Angels Fan Forever]

This whole Berrios conversation is a moot point. Unless we go 6-1 against the Twins and the Rockies I don't see Minasian giving up what it would take to get him. And even then, probably not.

But man, a rotation with Ohtani and Berrios at the top for 2022 would be better than anything we've seen since we last made the playoffs in 2014. Berrios is young, durable and getting better. Next year could be his breakout.

So who will we pair with Ohtani next year at the TOR?

[Duren, Duren]

Is Adell more valuable as a key part of a trade for a proven/promising pitcher or as a future Angel outfielder? 

Seems his 'can't miss' label has taken a bit of a beating. But he still could be a solid, power hitting everyday player. 

Marsh looks like he can become a good all around player. Better defensively than Adell but not as much power. It may come down to him or Adell as part of a trade package. 

The outfield with Trout and Upton healthy is solid till Upton's contract ends. I doubt very much he stays beyond that. But one or both of Marsh and Adell will be needed full time soon. 

Obviously pitching is the major problem, but to get quality in a trade young assets are always in demand. At this point I would sacrifice either outfielder as part of a package for improved pitching. 

And don't forget shortstop. Is Iglesias worth a long term investment? He's having a good season, but age is a factor and money may be too. 

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

Yep..  There is a shit ton of value to his consistency.   And Adell for him is probably a fair trade.  They are still giving up a lot of controllable years but you won't get him for peanuts.

It is the type of trade that, two or three years from now when Berrios is either expensive or gone and Adell is hitting 40+ HR in the big leagues, we might feel a little sad about, but it is also trading from a place of depth (outfield prospects) for a need (a consistent above average starter). I don't know a lot about Berrios, but some here seem to think he has another gear. That said, I don't like the Wheeler comp, because Wheeler was showing signs of an imminent performance spike before he went to Philly, while Berrios has been plateaued for five years now, so I wouldn't trade for Berrios with the idea that he'd be anything more than what he's been.

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

So...what's wrong with that? haha. We need pitching and he's a good pitcher. Good Ervin Santana? Jose Quintana? Berrios' career to date? All would be welcome in the 2022 Angels' rotation. Should we be aiming higher and spending more in trade capital? Should we spend money in FA for a mid-tier comparable arm even though those bust fairly often? Should we keep hoping someone like Canning ascends to that in maybe his fourth season?

What’s wrong with it is it will cost Adell to acquire so you can then pay him $22-25 million a year to be good Heaney or good Ervin. 

[stormngt]

29 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Meaning the 2nd part!

The 1st part Heaney is serviceable problem has been catchers targets and organizational catching philosophy. Mix in a little too heavy analytics on over shifts, and defensive alignment for the entire staff and you are where we are at today!

I've watched more baseball in the last few weeks while in the hospital for a friend. 

People need to pay attention how other teams catchers setup within the strike box on tv.

White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, Giants rarely set up high! They pound the zone low and move inside/outside then climb the ladder when a head in the count.  Even the All Star catchers did this in the game! Why people don't see this with their own eyes I have no clue.

You look at where most of our pitchers get hurt. The target is up and the catcher sets up and the glove ends up down the middle of the plate. If they started down the middle ended up at the knees were talking about a huge difference of elevated pitches! Forcing the hitter to elevate on his finish of his swing. 

Wouldn't the "catcher problem" apply to all pitchers who throw to that catcher?

[totdprods]

Just now, Stradling said:

What’s wrong with it is it will cost Adell to acquire so you can then pay him $22-25 million a year to be good Heaney or good Ervin. 

How do we know it will cost Adell? Or that he'll make that much? Or that a deal can't be part of something bigger? Or that a QO pick could offset the loss of Adell or whoever?

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

So...what's wrong with that? haha. We need pitching and he's a good pitcher. Good Ervin Santana? Jose Quintana? Berrios' career to date? All would be welcome in the 2022 Angels' rotation. Should we be aiming higher and spending more in trade capital? 

I actually WOULD be willing to aim high and spend more prospect capital for someone with more team control.  It's likely I value that more than you do.

The Marlins need position players in a bad way, they have a system loaded with arms, they have guys performing at the MLB level.   Quintana was under control through 2020 at the time of his trade during the 2017 season.  The Cubs had him for half of 17 and all of 18, 19, and 20.

Just how much are you willing to give away for 1.5 years  of Berrios?

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

How do we know it will cost Adell? Or that he'll make that much? Or that a deal can't be part of something bigger? Or that a QO pick could offset the loss of Adell or whoever?

The scenario laid out in this thread talks about trading Adell plus for Berrios, then a couple of respected posts said, straight up is about fair.  This thread also talks about how Berrios wants to be paid like he would be paid as a free agent.  I was basing it based on that.  

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

What’s wrong with it is it will cost Adell to acquire so you can then pay him $22-25 million a year to be good Heaney or good Ervin. 

Meh....  IF he were to continue to be what he's been for three years past next season even at 22-25 mil he'd likely be worth it because there is value in quality innings.  People will point to the Wheeler contract but the only reason he went for what he did was the injury history and raw ERA.  

The issue for me isn't what he will cost in the future, the issue for me is there is no guarantee the future extends beyond 2022.   When a guy has talked as much about wanting to be a FA and test the market then he really wants to be a FA and test the market.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

Wouldn't the "catcher problem" apply to all pitchers who throw to that catcher?

Depends if the pitcher has enough consistent velo to put it past people up in the zone! CROD, Ohtani, Raisel. Cobb stays down most of the time with all his pitches showing 3 home runs. 

Mayers throws hard zero movement or tail ! 4 seam straight as an arrow! His breaking ball and location mostly are for show and chase! 

Even Haeney can put it by guys when he elevates! But, is more effective down and then show up and go back down. It's a pitching philosophy and target setup catcher philosophy deal.

(Think of it as one side not talking to the other and then not communicating on strengths of pitcher or game plans). *That's why Suzuki is still here even with his other skills declining! What hasn't declined his his knowledge of the game or strikezone. He can milk a few innings and hitters out of pitchers.* It's looks dysfunctional if you've played the game at a high level. 

Cobb calls his own game and changes his pitches and locations or calls timeout and actually talks to his catcher. Haven't seen anyone do that in a while here since Weaver/Lackey/Haren. 

It's a confidence/mental thing. EVERYONE was writing about Cobb's leadership qualities... He knows how to pitch and how to be effective within his game.

Look at the era's for the starters depending on who catches them. Not the catchers individually. Look at what the pitchers do with each battery mate all season long. Then if there is video of the game look at where the setup consistently is. When you are watching the game you're thinking we'll crap he missed his spot! Or, the pitcher over threw that pitch and it flattened out! But, if that pitch dropped down below the knees, or flattened out off the plate it is taken for a ball and not driven over the fence or in the gap!

Sometimes, you have to step away from mechanics and watching the game. And looking at your setup! Same reason why the over shift has been a crap shoot because the pitch called and executed hasn't been in the right location for that shift.

I would play corners on the line or off depending on the hitter and shade the middle normal. We had 3 hits against Seattle that should had been a double play if the shortstop was playing double play depth and not over shifted. 

That's also on Maddon playing a shift. Which may be the right call until the rest of that single pitch and spot blows up from location, to not as much left/right range by your infielder to a complete circus play. Where the catcher setup high on an off speed pitch, the pitcher turned the ball over instead of spinning it, the defense coach moved the shortstop 2 extra steps to the right.... Then it looks like it never ends and you are like wtf why didn't he get that, or how did it get through.

Overall, the game isn't that hard! Until you over think it!

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I actually WOULD be willing to aim high and spend more prospect capital for someone with more team control.  It's likely I value that more than you do.

The Marlins need position players in a bad way, they have a system loaded with arms, they have guys performing at the MLB level.   Quintana was under control through 2020 at the time of his trade during the 2017 season.  The Cubs had him for half of 17 and all of 18, 19, and 20.

Just how much are you willing to give away for 1.5 years  of Berrios?

I'm 100% on-board with aiming higher by way of trade and spending more. I think it's the only realistic way to significantly improve the team to get to a highly competitive state over the next year or two, so I'm fine with that. I still think Adell, Canning, and a SS prospect gets the Angels in the mix for a very good SP with control and modest salary, and maybe even another piece or two depending on how much it expands and who's included. Someone like Alcantara, who I'm assuming you're implying, would be way atop my list - and I think attainable with that package. 

One for one absolute most I'd do for Berrios would be Adell, or something like Canning, Adams and one or two of the further off guys - Vera, Paris, Kochanowicz, Knowles, Holmes. 

I'd love to try and get Rogers in the deal too. It'd be oddball, but trying to get Buxton in the mix could be intriguing too. 

Edited July 21, 2021 by totdprods

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Meh....  IF he were to continue to be what he's been for three years past next season even at 22-25 mil he'd likely be worth it because there is value in quality innings.  People will point to the Wheeler contract but the only reason he went for what he did was the injury history and raw ERA.  

The issue for me isn't what he will cost in the future, the issue for me is there is no guarantee the future extends beyond 2022.   When a guy has talked as much about wanting to be a FA and test the market then he really wants to be a FA and test the market.

You also have to ask whether or not our manager will allow him to throw that many quality innings. Maddon is letting guys go deeper into games, but Suarez threw 72 pitches yesterday and wasn’t allowed to work out of a jam in the 6th.  Sandoval, Cobb, Ohtani have all been given that opportunity lately, but weren’t afforded that earlier in the year.  Will we have to wait for July for Maddon to allow a starter to push a little bit deeper into games?

[Dtwncbad]

40 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

This whole Berrios conversation is a moot point. Unless we go 6-1 against the Twins and the Rockies I don't see Minasian giving up what it would take to get him. And even then, probably not.

But man, a rotation with Ohtani and Berrios at the top for 2022 would be better than anything we've seen since we last made the playoffs in 2014. Berrios is young, durable and getting better. Next year could be his breakout.

So who will we pair with Ohtani next year at the TOR?

I am so confused why people think the Angels record over the next 7 games have anything to do with pursuing a quality starting pitcher controllable past this year.

[Inside Pitch]

27 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

It is the type of trade that, two or three years from now when Berrios is either expensive or gone and Adell is hitting 40+ HR in the big leagues, we might feel a little sad about, but it is also trading from a place of depth (outfield prospects) for a need (a consistent above average starter). I don't know a lot about Berrios, but some here seem to think he has another gear. That said, I don't like the Wheeler comp, because Wheeler was showing signs of an imminent performance spike before he went to Philly, while Berrios has been plateaued for five years now, so I wouldn't trade for Berrios with the idea that he'd be anything more than what he's been.

An argument could be made that the team could trade from a place of depth by going further down the pipeline.  The Angels OF could be a position of need as Upton's deal runs out next season.  I personally wouldn't do Adell for Berrios because of the lack of control with Berrios.  I value years of control almost as much as I do run prevention.   Adell's significant amount of control and proximity to MLB gives him a boost in value regardless of what people think last season did to his prospect status.   

I know many here have punted on the kid, but Adell's profile is still decidedly better than say Nick Williams was when he was the big get in the Cole Hamels trade (who had four years of control) or that of Lewis Brinson's when he was the big name in the Yelich trade (who had 5/6 years of control).

Anyway, Adell makes all kinds of sense for the Twins given their situation with Buxton.  

[DMVol]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

An argument could be made that the team could trade from a place of depth by going further down the pipeline.  The Angels OF could be a position of need as Upton's deal runs out next season.  I personally wouldn't do Adell for Berrios because of the lack of control with Berrios.  I value years of control almost as much as I do run prevention.   Adell's significant amount of control and proximity to MLB gives him a boost in value regardless of what people think last season did to his prospect status.   

I know many here have punted on the kid, but Adell's profile is still decidedly better than say Nick Williams was when he was the big get in the Cole Hamels trade (who had four years of control) or that of Lewis Brinson's when he was the big name in the Yelich trade (who had 5/6 years of control).

Anyway, Adell makes all kinds of sense for the Twins given their situation with Buxton.  

Who would be a fair trade for Adell?  Not a wish list but something the other team might actually do?  Castillo? Marquez?

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Barria's 123 ERA+ in his rookie year and 130 last year are both better marks than Berrios has ever managed in any season.  

Would be cool to have berrios and barria, though, just for the confusion. Especially if we lose both iglesias' this year.

[Angels Fan Forever]

12 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I am so confused why people think the Angels record over the next 7 games have anything to do with pursuing a quality starting pitcher controllable past this year.

I think the Angels should go after someone like Berrios even if they pay more now than they may over the Winter.

 I just don't think the Angels will make a move. I think Minasian will do the same thing Eppler did. Hold or sell.

Arte is the common denominator.

[Angels Fan Forever]

18 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Anyway, Adell makes all kinds of sense for the Twins given their situation with Buxton.  

Yep.