Trevor Bauer signs with the Dodgers (3 years, $102 million)

[TooCool]

Hey Bauer, you sku.

[Angelsjunky]

I think the first five paragraphs of this article explain why the Angels didn't go hard after Bauer.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-sign-trevor-bauer-to-three-year-deal/

[Angelsjunky]

I haven't read the thread, so I bet this has already been said, but just in case: This is really a 2/$85M contract. Think about that: AAV of $42.5M for the next two years. No pitcher is worth that much money, especially not a super douchy one with 1.4 great years to his name.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[rafibomb]

11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think the first five paragraphs of this article explain why the Angels didn't go hard after Bauer.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-sign-trevor-bauer-to-three-year-deal/

Wow I've never seen FanGraphs go after a player like that. Then again, there aren't many players like Bauer.

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Wow I've never seen FanGraphs go after a player like that. Then again, there aren't many players like Bauer.

Yeah, it was pretty strong. Kinda liked it. That, coupled with the 2/$85M silliness, makes me glad he's not an Angel.

[fan_since79]

10 hours ago, CanadianHalo said:

Good teams understand the need for good pitching 

Any idiot in a front office understands the need for good pitching.

Except our idiots.

Damn, another year on the outside looking in.

[ScottT]

19 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think the first five paragraphs of this article explain why the Angels didn't go hard after Bauer.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-sign-trevor-bauer-to-three-year-deal/

Seems excessive 

[rafibomb]

26 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, it was pretty strong. Kinda liked it. That, coupled with the 2/$85M silliness, makes me glad he's not an Angel.

I'm not gonna lie I stopped myself from reading too much into what he's said and done because the Angels felt like a destination for him at some point and I know I wouldn't be a fan of him.

[Chuck]

41 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Wow I've never seen FanGraphs go after a player like that. Then again, there aren't many players like Bauer.

 

37 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, it was pretty strong. Kinda liked it. That, coupled with the 2/$85M silliness, makes me glad he's not an Angel.

Wow, just read the article. @Dave Saltzer called me around 3pm today and said a bunch of the same things. 

An AW article is incoming. Sometime tomorrow on Bauer and the impact of MLB. 

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

He'll have to cut out Starbucks.

Going to Starbucks every day must cost a cool million, with their prices.

[Billy_Ball]

 

[TooCool]

5 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

Any idiot in a front office understands the need for good pitching.

Except our idiots.

Damn, another year on the outside looking in.

Basically it's the same song and dance every year. "Oh we're trying to win. We just don't really want to pay anyone to do that. So yeah, buy tickets, merchandise, and all that good stuff."

[Junkballer]

3 hours ago, TooCool said:

Basically it's the same song and dance every year. "Oh we're trying to win. We just don't really want to pay anyone to do that. So yeah, buy tickets, merchandise, and all that good stuff."

We Kings/Angels fans know the meaning of longsuffering.  Here's hoping that Minasian can do what Dean Lombardi did, transform the culture and build the foundation for a championship through the draft; spending more but not before they are on the cusp.  Who knows who the Angels Justin Williams/Mike Richards will be?

[Jay]

9 hours ago, rafibomb said:

Wow I've never seen FanGraphs go after a player like that. Then again, there aren't many players like Bauer.

I think everybody knows he's a douche but it's weird to see it spelled out in print like that.

[eaterfan]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I haven't read the thread, so I bet this has already been said, but just in case: This is really a 2/$85M contract. Think about that: AAV of $42.5M for the next two years. No pitcher is worth that much money, especially not a super douchy one with 1.4 great years to his name.

Why not? I remember when Jack McDowell signed for over $5 million a year and everyone freaked out. Baseball players make a lot of money. Teams make a lot of money (even when they claim they don't) and franchise values go up a ton. What difference does an extra $5-10 million make to guys with billions of dollars?

[eligrba]

10 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

Any idiot in a front office understands the need for good pitching.

Except our idiots.

Damn, another year on the outside looking in.

Are your comments due to the Angels not signing Bauer for 40 mill/yr?

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Are your comments due to the Angels not signing Bauer for 40 mill/yr?

No, his comments are the ill-effects of it being sunny in Bixby Knolls.

[failos]

11 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think the first five paragraphs of this article explain why the Angels didn't go hard after Bauer.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-sign-trevor-bauer-to-three-year-deal/

Wow that was a surprisingly harsh, but good article.

[totdprods]

11 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I think the first five paragraphs of this article explain why the Angels didn't go hard after Bauer.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-sign-trevor-bauer-to-three-year-deal/

Yup, I was skeptical from the start. Arte’s era has focused on the exact opposite personality, the quiet, unassuming superstars. No one individualistic. Guillen was really the only hothead they knowingly brought in and that was the first winter. Hamilton was a mess but he wooed Arte with his born again shit. 

There’s been so much emphasis on the “Angel Way”, culture, team history, etc. that Bauer seemed way too against the grain.

Also pretty ironic that the Angels have been marred with so many off-field issues despite this.

[Bronson]

6 hours ago, TooCool said:

Basically it's the same song and dance every year. "Oh we're trying to win. We just don't really want to pay anyone to do that. So yeah, buy tickets, merchandise, and all that good stuff."

They literally paid Rendon 245 million last year. What the actual fuck are you talking about?

[failos]

25 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yup, I was skeptical from the start. Arte’s era has focused on the exact opposite personality, the quiet, unassuming superstars. No one individualistic. Guillen was really the only hothead they knowingly brought in and that was the first winter. Hamilton was a mess but he wooed Arte with his born again shit. 

There’s been so much emphasis on the “Angel Way”, culture, team history, etc. that Bauer seemed way too against the grain.

Also pretty ironic that the Angels have been marred with so many off-field issues despite this.

We need intensity like Weaver, not douchbaggery like Bauer or troublemakers like Puig. But the Angels right now do seem like a very chill, quiet group of good dudes—it’s not a bad thing, they just need some more outwardly passionate players, like LaStella for example.

Either way, it’s hard to gauge the personalities of players when we aren’t privy to what goes on in the clubhouse.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, failos said:

We need intensity like Weaver, not douchbaggery like Bauer or troublemakers like Puig. But the Angels right now do seem like a very chill, good group of good dudes—it’s not a bad thing, they just need some more outwardly passionate players, like LaStella for example.

Either way, it’s hard to gauge the personalities of players when we aren’t privy to what goes on in the clubhouse.

Intensity is fine. As you noted there’s a difference between intensity and douchebaggery. It was really hard watching someone with on-field tantrums and showboating like Bauer and thinking “Yeah Arte wants more of this”, especially when they’ve had so much blow up in their face with Hamilton, Skaggs, Harkins...

Someone as individualistic like Bauer just did not gel with the quiet personalities Ohtani, Rendon, Pujols, and Trout display. And you’re right, we don’t know how intense these guys are outside of what we see.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, eaterfan said:

Why not? I remember when Jack McDowell signed for over $5 million a year and everyone freaked out. Baseball players make a lot of money. Teams make a lot of money (even when they claim they don't) and franchise values go up a ton. What difference does an extra $5-10 million make to guys with billions of dollars?

Well, it depends upon the pitcher. But Bauer is being paid like he's the best pitcher in baseball, when he's probably not even in the top 5. Add in his trolling and personality, and his value drops.

$42.5M (his 21-22 AAV) is about 25% of the Angels payroll budget, almost 20% of the Dodgers'. A team is putting a huge amount of his resources into one player, and a pitcher at that (pitchers being volatile and subject to injury).

It is easy for us to say, "Arte is a billionaire, so who cares?" but every team operates on a budget, and budget impacts a team's ability to improve in other ways.

Under a restricted budget, you have to make choices. I personally would rather spend $8M on a 3 WAR starter than $40M on a 6 WAR starter, and find other ways to improve the team. Whether or not the Angels have done that is beside the point. In their case, spending $40-45M on Bauer would have been a terrible use of resources.

I'm not opposed to breaking the bank on elite players, but only the very elite. Trout is a franchise player, Rendon is a consistent superstar. Bauer has 1.4 great seasons to his name. He is not on the level of Cole or deGrom or Scherzer in terms of establishing a consistent level as a CY caliber pitcher, nor is he a young up-and-coming stud like Bieber. Chances are he'll be very good this year, but there is a chance he won't be and, adding in his trolling, I am not sad to see him play elsewhere, especially for that price.

I'm also wondering if and when salaries will adjust for pitchers to account for the fact that they pitch less than in bygone eras. Even 15 years ago the best pitchers threw 250 IP a year, while now it is rare to throw 200. Bauer's only done it once.

 

[AngelsFanSince86]

At first glance I was thinking I was glad they didn't drop that kind of money on Bauer. He certainly isn't worth being the highest paid player in baseball the next 2 years. The more I think about it the more I wish the Angels could have gotten him though.

It's only 2 years you are committing to paying him $40M and $45M. If he isn't performing it's done after 2 years and if he opts in the 3rd year it's only $18M. However, because of the short duration of the contract you know he's going to be working his ass off for the next contract. 

I would guess he doesn't fully realize the value per dollars of his contract, but I would bet that the surplus money they are paying him compared to the value he actually provides is much less than Gerrit Cole, Rendon, definitely Albert Pujols, and most long term contracts in general.

For example, the cost per WAR is about $8M. Let's take Cole and assume he doesn't opt out and the Yankees don't add the extra year in 2029. I'm also hoping to throw out last year because it skews everything. That's 7 more years at $36M for a total cost of $252M. He would have to accumulate 31.5 WAR over that span to realize his value. This is where someone with more experience may need to edit this because I'm not sure how to project decline: let's say 5 WAR average the next 3 years and then a decline of 1 WAR per year after that. That would be a total WAR of 25. Let's say he accumulates 27 WAR. That's 4.5 WAR short of his needed total. That means the Yankees spent an extra $36M. And that is a fairly optimistic approach given the likelihood of injury over the next 7 years.

Let's take Bauer now. He's not as good as Cole so I'm going to say he is worth 4 WAR a piece over the next 2 years. That's worth $64M in WAR value. So he's $21M short of what he gets paid in that time period. 

When you compare to long term position player contracts the gap is even larger. Pujols would be an extreme example of falling way short of his contract. 

Basically it's less of a chance of falling way short at the end of the day because it's only a 2 year commitment. The more I think about it the more I think it would be worth it. However, he probably would have chosen the dodgers anyways.

[Erstad Grit]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, it depends upon the pitcher. But Bauer is being paid like he's the best pitcher in baseball, when he's probably not even in the top 5. Add in his trolling and personality, and his value drops.

$42.5M (his 21-22 AAV) is about 25% of the Angels payroll budget, almost 20% of the Dodgers'. A team is putting a huge amount of his resources into one player, and a pitcher at that (pitchers being volatile and subject to injury).

It is easy for us to say, "Arte is a billionaire, so who cares?" but every team operates on a budget, and budget impacts a team's ability to improve in other ways.

Under a restricted budget, you have to make choices. I personally would rather spend $8M on a 3 WAR starter than $40M on a 6 WAR starter, and find other ways to improve the team. Whether or not the Angels have done that is beside the point. In their case, spending $40-45M on Bauer would have been a terrible use of resources.

I'm not opposed to breaking the bank on elite players, but only the very elite. Trout is a franchise player, Rendon is a consistent superstar. Bauer has 1.4 great seasons to his name. He is not on the level of Cole or deGrom or Scherzer in terms of establishing a consistent level as a CY caliber pitcher, nor is he a young up-and-coming stud like Bieber. Chances are he'll be very good this year, but there is a chance he won't be and, adding in his trolling, I am not sad to see him play elsewhere, especially for that price.

I'm also wondering if and when salaries will adjust for pitchers to account for the fact that they pitch less than in bygone eras. Even 15 years ago the best pitchers threw 250 IP a year, while now it is rare to throw 200. Bauer's only done it once.

 

Not saying I'd advocate that contract but Bauer is a top 5 SP IMO