Breaking: Alex Cobb TRADED to Angels for Jahmai Jones

[ThisismineScios]

Deferred money means it is most certainly not $5 million they are paying this year. If it's 3-1-1, 2-2-1, or even more spread out than that, there is really no reason for Perry to do it unless they are going to spend more money. Why do we suddenly think Arte gave Perry $10 and told him to buy dinner for the family? More and more we can see this was a shrewd move. I hated it at $15 million. I thought it was stupid at $6-7 million. At $5, I thought it was a decent move. At $5 deferred? It's really smart. A pitcher like Cobb is as good as any of the $3-5 million FAs out there. This was a depth move while he tries to get more. As for Jones...

Yes, he was once a Top-100 prospect. So was Barreto. Yes he's a top 10 prospect. But his arrow isn't pointing up. We did well to find a team that liked him and get something out of it. But he's blocked. He has little value to Angels long-term.
Does he play in the OF? Marsh, Adell, Trout, and Adams are all ahead of him. 
2nd? Fletcher, Rengifo, Barreto are blocking him now with several young SS prospects likely moving to 2B long term. 
He's also not a true utility guy--he can't play SS, 3B, or 1st. 

Also, Perry just came from another front office. He knows the value of every other teams Top 10 prospects. Bringing in guys from 4-5 different teams only confirms this. If none of them valued Jones, they know his trade value is low. It's a really small loss for the right to SP $3 million this year that solidifies the back of the rotation. 

FINALLY...are we all forgetting that the Angels' problem the last 3 years has been the bottom of their rotation and the bullpen? If you take out Teheran and Suarez last year, the Angels rotation was above average. If you take out Cahill/Harvey 2 years ago, their rotation was at least average. Solidifying form the bottom up isn't sexy obviously, but it is how you begin to build consistency and give yourself the chance to win more games. 

[Stradling]

Post more often.  

[Make Angels Great Again]

I like this one.

[Erstad Grit]

40 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

Deferred money means it is most certainly not $5 million they are paying this year. If it's 3-1-1, 2-2-1, or even more spread out than that, there is really no reason for Perry to do it unless they are going to spend more money. Why do we suddenly think Arte gave Perry $10 and told him to buy dinner for the family? More and more we can see this was a shrewd move. I hated it at $15 million. I thought it was stupid at $6-7 million. At $5, I thought it was a decent move. At $5 deferred? It's really smart. A pitcher like Cobb is as good as any of the $3-5 million FAs out there. This was a depth move while he tries to get more. As for Jones...

Yes, he was once a Top-100 prospect. So was Barreto. Yes he's a top 10 prospect. But his arrow isn't pointing up. We did well to find a team that liked him and get something out of it. But he's blocked. He has little value to Angels long-term.
Does he play in the OF? Marsh, Adell, Trout, and Adams are all ahead of him. 
2nd? Fletcher, Rengifo, Barreto are blocking him now with several young SS prospects likely moving to 2B long term. 
He's also not a true utility guy--he can't play SS, 3B, or 1st. 

Also, Perry just came from another front office. He knows the value of every other teams Top 10 prospects. Bringing in guys from 4-5 different teams only confirms this. If none of them valued Jones, they know his trade value is low. It's a really small loss for the right to SP $3 million this year that solidifies the back of the rotation. 

FINALLY...are we all forgetting that the Angels' problem the last 3 years has been the bottom of their rotation and the bullpen? If you take out Teheran and Suarez last year, the Angels rotation was above average. If you take out Cahill/Harvey 2 years ago, their rotation was at least average. Solidifying form the bottom up isn't sexy obviously, but it is how you begin to build consistency and give yourself the chance to win more games. 

One of the best posts I've read in a while. 

[tdawg87]

45 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

Deferred money means it is most certainly not $5 million they are paying this year. If it's 3-1-1, 2-2-1, or even more spread out than that, there is really no reason for Perry to do it unless they are going to spend more money. Why do we suddenly think Arte gave Perry $10 and told him to buy dinner for the family? More and more we can see this was a shrewd move. I hated it at $15 million. I thought it was stupid at $6-7 million. At $5, I thought it was a decent move. At $5 deferred? It's really smart. A pitcher like Cobb is as good as any of the $3-5 million FAs out there. This was a depth move while he tries to get more. As for Jones...

Yes, he was once a Top-100 prospect. So was Barreto. Yes he's a top 10 prospect. But his arrow isn't pointing up. We did well to find a team that liked him and get something out of it. But he's blocked. He has little value to Angels long-term.
Does he play in the OF? Marsh, Adell, Trout, and Adams are all ahead of him. 
2nd? Fletcher, Rengifo, Barreto are blocking him now with several young SS prospects likely moving to 2B long term. 
He's also not a true utility guy--he can't play SS, 3B, or 1st. 

Also, Perry just came from another front office. He knows the value of every other teams Top 10 prospects. Bringing in guys from 4-5 different teams only confirms this. If none of them valued Jones, they know his trade value is low. It's a really small loss for the right to SP $3 million this year that solidifies the back of the rotation. 

FINALLY...are we all forgetting that the Angels' problem the last 3 years has been the bottom of their rotation and the bullpen? If you take out Teheran and Suarez last year, the Angels rotation was above average. If you take out Cahill/Harvey 2 years ago, their rotation was at least average. Solidifying form the bottom up isn't sexy obviously, but it is how you begin to build consistency and give yourself the chance to win more games. 

I love you.

[Angelsjunky]

53 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

Deferred money means it is most certainly not $5 million they are paying this year. If it's 3-1-1, 2-2-1, or even more spread out than that, there is really no reason for Perry to do it unless they are going to spend more money. Why do we suddenly think Arte gave Perry $10 and told him to buy dinner for the family? More and more we can see this was a shrewd move. I hated it at $15 million. I thought it was stupid at $6-7 million. At $5, I thought it was a decent move. At $5 deferred? It's really smart. A pitcher like Cobb is as good as any of the $3-5 million FAs out there. This was a depth move while he tries to get more. As for Jones...

Yes, he was once a Top-100 prospect. So was Barreto. Yes he's a top 10 prospect. But his arrow isn't pointing up. We did well to find a team that liked him and get something out of it. But he's blocked. He has little value to Angels long-term.
Does he play in the OF? Marsh, Adell, Trout, and Adams are all ahead of him. 
2nd? Fletcher, Rengifo, Barreto are blocking him now with several young SS prospects likely moving to 2B long term. 
He's also not a true utility guy--he can't play SS, 3B, or 1st. 

Also, Perry just came from another front office. He knows the value of every other teams Top 10 prospects. Bringing in guys from 4-5 different teams only confirms this. If none of them valued Jones, they know his trade value is low. It's a really small loss for the right to SP $3 million this year that solidifies the back of the rotation. 

FINALLY...are we all forgetting that the Angels' problem the last 3 years has been the bottom of their rotation and the bullpen? If you take out Teheran and Suarez last year, the Angels rotation was above average. If you take out Cahill/Harvey 2 years ago, their rotation was at least average. Solidifying form the bottom up isn't sexy obviously, but it is how you begin to build consistency and give yourself the chance to win more games. 

A solid defense of Minasian's thinking. But you still ignore the fact that the Angels could have picked up a similar caliber pitcher for no more than $0-2M more, and not lost a potentially useful prospect.  The deferred money helps, but only if they need it to bring in someone else this year - if they don't, it is just spreading it out unnecessarily.

Your logic seems based on "giving Perry the benefit of the doubt" - which means you over-sell Cobb, under-sell Jones, and imply they need the money this offseason. If all of those things are true, fine - it isn't a terrible move. But if not, well, it is just giving away Jones.

[AngelsLakersFan]

59 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

Deferred money means it is most certainly not $5 million they are paying this year. If it's 3-1-1, 2-2-1, or even more spread out than that, there is really no reason for Perry to do it unless they are going to spend more money. Why do we suddenly think Arte gave Perry $10 and told him to buy dinner for the family? More and more we can see this was a shrewd move. I hated it at $15 million. I thought it was stupid at $6-7 million. At $5, I thought it was a decent move. At $5 deferred? It's really smart. A pitcher like Cobb is as good as any of the $3-5 million FAs out there. This was a depth move while he tries to get more. As for Jones...

Yes, he was once a Top-100 prospect. So was Barreto. Yes he's a top 10 prospect. But his arrow isn't pointing up. We did well to find a team that liked him and get something out of it. But he's blocked. He has little value to Angels long-term.
Does he play in the OF? Marsh, Adell, Trout, and Adams are all ahead of him. 
2nd? Fletcher, Rengifo, Barreto are blocking him now with several young SS prospects likely moving to 2B long term. 
He's also not a true utility guy--he can't play SS, 3B, or 1st. 

Also, Perry just came from another front office. He knows the value of every other teams Top 10 prospects. Bringing in guys from 4-5 different teams only confirms this. If none of them valued Jones, they know his trade value is low. It's a really small loss for the right to SP $3 million this year that solidifies the back of the rotation. 

FINALLY...are we all forgetting that the Angels' problem the last 3 years has been the bottom of their rotation and the bullpen? If you take out Teheran and Suarez last year, the Angels rotation was above average. If you take out Cahill/Harvey 2 years ago, their rotation was at least average. Solidifying form the bottom up isn't sexy obviously, but it is how you begin to build consistency and give yourself the chance to win more games. 

And to think I'd gotten so used to the first couple of posts by new users being trash...

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

A solid defense of Minasian's thinking. But you still ignore the fact that the Angels could have picked up a similar caliber pitcher for no more than $0-2M more, and not lost a potentially useful prospect.  The deferred money helps, but only if they need it to bring in someone else this year - if they don't, it is just spreading it out unnecessarily.

Your logic seems based on "giving Perry the benefit of the doubt" - which means you over-sell Cobb, under-sell Jones, and imply they need the money this offseason. If all of those things are true, fine - it isn't a terrible move. But if not, well, it is just giving away Jones.

Our track record with Perry is very short.  In the short time he has been here he has put together a front office that is well respected and probably the most quality of personnel the front office of the Angels has ever had.  So, while I know I am the guy that always gives the benefit of the doubt, this is another time where I truly believe it is warranted.  

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

And to think I'd gotten so used to the first couple of posts by new users being trash...

No shit.  I saw a long post by a new person and I was already wringing my hands wondering how I was going to welcome him.  Then he was amazing.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A solid defense of Minasian's thinking. But you still ignore the fact that the Angels could have picked up a similar caliber pitcher for no more than $0-2M more, and not lost a potentially useful prospect.  The deferred money helps, but only if they need it to bring in someone else this year - if they don't, it is just spreading it out unnecessarily.

Your logic seems based on "giving Perry the benefit of the doubt" - which means you over-sell Cobb, under-sell Jones, and imply they need the money this offseason. If all of those things are true, fine - it isn't a terrible move. But if not, well, it is just giving away Jones.

I'm not a huge fan of the move but it's clearly done with an eye towards packing as much talent onto this seasons roster as possible. It will either allow them to add another player or it allowed them to add Cobb to the roster where they would've not been able to add anyone else otherwise.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

No shit.  I saw a long post by a new person and I was already wringing my hands wondering how I was going to welcome him.  Then he was amazing.  

Haha, he must be a lurker. No way we just snagged him off of AM830.

[tdawg87]

[ThisismineScios]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

A solid defense of Minasian's thinking. But you still ignore the fact that the Angels could have picked up a similar caliber pitcher for no more than $0-2M more, and not lost a potentially useful prospect.  The deferred money helps, but only if they need it to bring in someone else this year - if they don't, it is just spreading it out unnecessarily.

Your logic seems based on "giving Perry the benefit of the doubt" - which means you over-sell Cobb, under-sell Jones, and imply they need the money this offseason. If all of those things are true, fine - it isn't a terrible move. But if not, well, it is just giving away Jones.

I don't know much about Minasian yet, so I'm not claiming his brilliance. I was annoyed when this was first announced. As details have emerged, it's become clear how smart of a move it was.

It's hard to oversell an average starting pitcher for ~ $3 million. It's also hard to undersell a prospect like Jones that has no clear path to help the team and who will likely see his value diminish in the next couple of years. I loved Jones for his work ethic and intangibles. Do you realize he's already 23? He's 6 months younger than Rengifo. Right now is likely his high water mark. And you can't possibly think they won't spend another dime this offseason. Of course they will, be it OF, Bullpen, or a starter. 

[T.G.]

@ThisismineScios welcome to AW. Hope you post more often.

[T.G.]

55 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I love you.

Damn it.  The guy just got here.  You're going to scare him off. 

[beatlesrule]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

No shit.  I saw a long post by a new person and I was already wringing my hands wondering how I was going to welcome him.  Then he was amazing.  

Or she.

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Haha, he must be a lurker. No way we just snagged him off of AM830.

or she.

 

[Angelsjunky]

46 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

I don't know much about Minasian yet, so I'm not claiming his brilliance. I was annoyed when this was first announced. As details have emerged, it's become clear how smart of a move it was.

It's hard to oversell an average starting pitcher for ~ $3 million. It's also hard to undersell a prospect like Jones that has no clear path to help the team and who will likely see his value diminish in the next couple of years. I loved Jones for his work ethic and intangibles. Do you realize he's already 23? He's 6 months younger than Rengifo. Right now is likely his high water mark. And you can't possibly think they won't spend another dime this offseason. Of course they will, be it OF, Bullpen, or a starter. 

I agree that the trade has gone from "really bad" to "uh, maybe?" But that's about it.

I also question the notion that Cobb is an "average pitcher," however we define it. As I pointed out elsewhere, he's #130 out of 150 pitchers with 200+ IP from 2018-20 in fWAR, #137 in ERA. That would imply that he's well below average among starters with significant playing time over the last three seasons.

I'm not writing Minasian off, mind you. I just find this one...questionable, to say the least, and personally wouldn't have made this trade, but instead signed someone like Shoemaker and stashed Jones in AAA to see if he develops, or even turned him into a 4OF.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[beatlesrule]

This is definitely a wait and see what happens kind of trade. When posters here have to try to explain the Gms thinking or make a lot of posts to justify it, you know the trade makes little sense.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, beatlesrule said:

This is definitely a wait and see what happens kind of trade. When posters here have to try to explain the Gms thinking or make a lot of posts to justify it, you know the trade makes little sense on the surface.

 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, ThisismineScios said:

Deferred money means it is most certainly not $5 million they are paying this year. If it's 3-1-1, 2-2-1, or even more spread out than that, there is really no reason for Perry to do it unless they are going to spend more money. Why do we suddenly think Arte gave Perry $10 and told him to buy dinner for the family? More and more we can see this was a shrewd move. I hated it at $15 million. I thought it was stupid at $6-7 million. At $5, I thought it was a decent move. At $5 deferred? It's really smart. A pitcher like Cobb is as good as any of the $3-5 million FAs out there. This was a depth move while he tries to get more. As for Jones...

Yes, he was once a Top-100 prospect. So was Barreto. Yes he's a top 10 prospect. But his arrow isn't pointing up. We did well to find a team that liked him and get something out of it. But he's blocked. He has little value to Angels long-term.
Does he play in the OF? Marsh, Adell, Trout, and Adams are all ahead of him. 
2nd? Fletcher, Rengifo, Barreto are blocking him now with several young SS prospects likely moving to 2B long term. 
He's also not a true utility guy--he can't play SS, 3B, or 1st. 

Also, Perry just came from another front office. He knows the value of every other teams Top 10 prospects. Bringing in guys from 4-5 different teams only confirms this. If none of them valued Jones, they know his trade value is low. It's a really small loss for the right to SP $3 million this year that solidifies the back of the rotation. 

FINALLY...are we all forgetting that the Angels' problem the last 3 years has been the bottom of their rotation and the bullpen? If you take out Teheran and Suarez last year, the Angels rotation was above average. If you take out Cahill/Harvey 2 years ago, their rotation was at least average. Solidifying form the bottom up isn't sexy obviously, but it is how you begin to build consistency and give yourself the chance to win more games. 

nice post!  welcome aboard.  

my guess is that the halos will pay about 3m in 2021 and the other two actually gets prorated over 2022-2032 per Cobb's contract parameters.  It might even be more that get's deferred.  So it's basically a free serviceable arm for 2021.  Again, increasing the floor supposedly.  My only concern is that I think Barria is better and I'd rather not he lose innings to Cobb.  

the other thing we're assuming is that Cobb is going into the rotation.  To me he slots into a group that includes Barria as well as Felix Pena and Sandoval as well as a few others that can make a start here and there like Guerra, Suarez etc.  I'm thinking that maybe his stuff plays up a bit in shorter stints.  Point being, the 2-3 mil he costs for 2021 is pretty reasonable for a guy that can end up giving you 120 or so innings with the understanding that they'll pick and choose his spots appropriately and not just toss him into the rotation.  

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, Torridd said:

I really wanted Richards back. 

Could have GRich 2.0 (Zach Linginfelter) in the minors.

Similar college stats and stuff to GRich

Edited February 3, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Angel Oracle]

25 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

nice post!  welcome aboard.  

my guess is that the halos will pay about 3m in 2021 and the other two actually gets prorated over 2022-2032 per Cobb's contract parameters.  It might even be more that get's deferred.  So it's basically a free serviceable arm for 2021.  Again, increasing the floor supposedly.  My only concern is that I think Barria is better and I'd rather not he lose innings to Cobb.  

the other thing we're assuming is that Cobb is going into the rotation.  To me he slots into a group that includes Barria as well as Felix Pena and Sandoval as well as a few others that can make a start here and there like Guerra, Suarez etc.  I'm thinking that maybe his stuff plays up a bit in shorter stints.  Point being, the 2-3 mil he costs for 2021 is pretty reasonable for a guy that can end up giving you 120 or so innings with the understanding that they'll pick and choose his spots appropriately and not just toss him into the rotation.  

The splitter is a pitch to not throw too many times, with the stress it creates.

Cobb’s other pitches are meh.

Relief pitching may be Cobb’s next career phase.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

nice post!  welcome aboard.  

my guess is that the halos will pay about 3m in 2021 and the other two actually gets prorated over 2022-2032 per Cobb's contract parameters.  It might even be more that get's deferred.  So it's basically a free serviceable arm for 2021.  Again, increasing the floor supposedly.  My only concern is that I think Barria is better and I'd rather not he lose innings to Cobb.  

the other thing we're assuming is that Cobb is going into the rotation.  To me he slots into a group that includes Barria as well as Felix Pena and Sandoval as well as a few others that can make a start here and there like Guerra, Suarez etc.  I'm thinking that maybe his stuff plays up a bit in shorter stints.  Point being, the 2-3 mil he costs for 2021 is pretty reasonable for a guy that can end up giving you 120 or so innings with the understanding that they'll pick and choose his spots appropriately and not just toss him into the rotation.  

"My only concern is I think Barria is better and and rather not lose his innings to Cobb."

Exactly!

[totdprods]

57 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The splitter is a pitch to not throw too many times, with the stress it creates.

Cobb’s other pitches are meh.

Relief pitching may be Cobb’s next career phase.

Maybe that’s part of the plan. Use him to start the year and save some innings on the kids and let them compete, then move him to the pen when time and need necessitate it. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

33 pages! For a mediocre starting pitcher....