Breaking: Alex Cobb TRADED to Angels for Jahmai Jones

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

and got lucky with Bundy

Why was it luck? Why can't it be a good evaluation? 

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

That is not going to happen. Time to put down the trade calculator and accept this is the starting rotation.

Ok now I only want another pitcher so we can laugh at Blarg.

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

who's this Bauer you speak of?  

This Trevor Bauer, not the other one.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bauer-002tre

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

who's this Bauer you speak of?  

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Ok now I only want another pitcher so we can laugh at Blarg.

seriously.  I don't even care about the rotation anymore.  

[angelsnationtalk]

2 minutes ago, WholeFnShow said:

Caught this at the end of Rhett Bollinger's article on the deal. Not sure if that's him speculating or what he's been told.

 

 

 

2 things....

1: His source is Maria Torres

2: "spend resources to improve multiple parts".... ummm.... yeah stud rotation.... NOT

[jsnpritchett]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I literally can't tell if you are agreeing with him.  

 

 

Whew.  I thought I was the only one who was still confused.

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

Why was it luck? Why can't it be a good evaluation? 

Because given Eppler's track record with pitchers, if evaluation had anything to do with it, 20 other teams would've beat the Angels to the lunch. 

Skill doesn't make him dead wrong in every pitcher except Bundy. But luck does.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

This Trevor Bauer, not the other one.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bauer-002tre

that guy on Twitter?  I heard he was pissed that we suspended Callaway.  

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, WholeFnShow said:

Caught this at the end of Rhett Bollinger's article on the deal. Not sure if that's him speculating or what he's been told.

 

 

 

Reads like an assumption. Although the conclusion does not follow from the first part at all. Acquiring Cobb means they're out on Bauer because they decided to spread the money around? Either that should have been known before the final move (assuming that's what he is saying this is) or they're planning to spend more money on other pieces. 

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Because given Eppler's track record with pitchers, if evaluation had anything to do with it, 20 other teams would've beat the Angels to the lunch. 

Skill doesn't make him dead wrong in every pitcher except Bundy. But luck does.

[Second Base]

Just now, Dochalo said:

that guy on Twitter?  I heard he was pissed that we suspended Callaway.  

Let's just say he's only 28 and has a career ERA under 2.00 on professional baseball. He can get whatever he wants.

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Whew.  I thought I was the only one who was still confused.

Should I have included quotation marks? 

They aren't filling a six man rotation with six guys other than Ohtani under the assumption that even though he isn't currently injured he's sure to be. 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

Should I have included quotation marks? 

They aren't filling a six man rotation with six guys other than Ohtani under the assumption that even though he isn't currently injured he's sure to be. 

still not sure.  

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, Dochalo said:

still not sure.  

Must be a first. 

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Should I have included quotation marks? 

They aren't filling a six man rotation with six guys other than Ohtani under the assumption that even though he isn't currently injured he's sure to be. 

Are you trying to say that they aren't going with a 6 man rotation because Ohtani will likely be hurt?

[Chuck]

[Junkballer]

12 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Even valuing Jones conservatively, based on the terrible AA performance and required 40 man spot, he's still with around 4 million by himself, and again that's conservative. You could make an argument he's with as much as 10 million.

That's basically paying 9 million in deferred value to Baltimore for Alex Cobb. Would Cobb have gotten 1/9 in free agency? Highly doubtful. Probably 1/6. Seeing as Archer just got 1/6.5 with a considerably higher ceiling, I'd value the Angels overpay conservatively at 3 million. 

In my opinion, it's actually more like 6 million.

The deal would've been fair of they covered 100% of his salary. 

And no wonder Baltimore was willing to eat 67% of the month owed. No one else was stupid enough to take on money AND give them a solid prospect in return. 

Minasian screwed this one up big time. 

Even if Cobb reverses the clock and eats innings with an ERA under 4.00, it's about the value you paid at the time and at the time of the trade, it's a huge overpay. 

Honestly, my guess is that when all is said and done, it'll be a small loss for the Angels. Cobb is going to decent, like 150 innings and a 4.25 ERA, and Jones will do fine in AAA this year, will be ok in 2022 in the majors and will turn into a surprisingly decent starting 2B/LF in 2023 and beyond. By that time though, the trade will be a distant memory. It'll always be an overpay, but we'll be over it by then. 

Hopefully Minasian doesn't make any more clearly stupid decisions like this though.

From behind a keyboard this makes sense in terms of calling it an overpay, however, Minasian lives in that realm where he is held responsible for now and later, with limited resources.   He was essentially holding a bond (Jones) that has different values now and and the future, all the while bills are coming due (the need to create stability in the back end of the rotation) with Arte capping current expenditures.  He chose to take advantage of obtaining an asset he felt would stabilize operations that is partially paid out in future years where there is guaranteed to be more fiscal flexibility, while still affording him the wherewithal to fill additional needs now, at the cost of the interest he would have captured by dealing the bond at a later date.  One justification was that he would have never redeemed the bond for himself for full value anyway.  It  is somewhat like going to the pawn broker to make sure you have enough liquidity to address the requirements of your current business operations.  It is easy to spreadsheet it out and say this is what asset management dictates but no matter how much we have come to understand the building of teams through the wisdom of numbers crunching there are still intangible hills that GMs have to choose to make their stand on, and owners/budget and the needs of this season preclude choosing some of those perfectly defendable hills.

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Should I have included quotation marks? 

They aren't filling a six man rotation with six guys other than Ohtani under the assumption that even though he isn't currently injured he's sure to be. 

If multiple people are unclear on what you're saying, the problem likely isn't on their end.

[T.G.]

2 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

From behind a keyboard this makes sense in terms of calling it an overpay, however, Minasian lives in that realm where he is held responsible for now and later, with limited resources.   He was essentially holding a bond (Jones) that has different values now and and the future, all the while bills are coming due (the need to create stability in the back end of the rotation) with Arte capping current expenditures.  He chose to take advantage of obtaining an asset he felt would stabilize operations that is partially paid out in future years where there is guaranteed to be more fiscal flexibility, while still affording him the wherewithal to fill additional needs now, at the cost of the interest he would have captured by dealing the bond at a later date.  One justification was that he would have never redeemed the bond for himself for full value anyway.  It  is somewhat like going to the pawn broker to make sure you have enough liquidity to address the requirements of your current business operations.  It is easy to spreadsheet it out and say this is what asset management dictates but no matter how much we have come to understand the building of teams through the wisdom of numbers crunching there are still intangible hills that GMs have to choose to make their stand on, and owners/budget and the needs of this season preclude choosing some of those perfectly defendable hills.

Are you Michael Milken?

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

From behind a keyboard this makes sense in terms of calling it an overpay, however, Minasian lives in that realm where he is held responsible for now and later, with limited resources.   He was essentially holding a bond (Jones) that has different values now and and the future, all the while bills are coming due (the need to create stability in the back end of the rotation) with Arte capping current expenditures.  He chose to take advantage of obtaining an asset he felt would stabilize operations that is partially paid out in future years where there is guaranteed to be more fiscal flexibility, while still affording him the wherewithal to fill additional needs now, at the cost of the interest he would have captured by dealing the bond at a later date.  One justification was that he would have never redeemed the bond for himself for full value anyway.  It  is somewhat like going to the pawn broker to make sure you have enough liquidity to address the requirements of your current business operations.  It is easy to spreadsheet it out and say this is what asset management dictates but no matter how much we have come to understand the building of teams through the wisdom of numbers crunching there are still intangible hills that GMs have to choose to make their stand on, and owners/budget and the needs of this season preclude choosing some of those perfectly defendable hills.

Paragraphs!

You silly goose. 

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, jsnpritchett said:

If multiple people are unclear on what you're saying, the problem likely isn't on their end.

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Are you trying to say that they aren't going with a 6 man rotation because Ohtani will likely be hurt?

Jsnpritchett said he's assuming the front office is planning on Ohtani not pitching much or at all. He said the six man rotation will be filled with six pitchers other than Ohtani. I said that's ridiculous. They aren't going to leave him without a spot. 2020 obviously makes people doubt whether he can pitch going forward, but he's healthy at the moment. They're obviously planning on him being in the rotation. They have depth ready if he can't go.

[Junkballer]

2 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Are you Michael Milken?

Not a convicted felon.....Yet.

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

If multiple people are unclear on what you're saying, the problem likely isn't on their end.

Fair, but I'm also not the one saying the front office is filling a six man rotation with six guys other than Ohtani (who is reported to be healthy).