Breaking: Alex Cobb TRADED to Angels for Jahmai Jones

[Pancake Bear]

43 minutes ago, Stradler said:

Even if you get more out of the guy in retrospect, paying more than he's worth to a desperate team willing to unload him is outright stupid.

You're assuming Jones is considered to have a value comparable to what most prospect sites rate him at. It's entirely possible that over the course of the offseason with deals being discussed that they've realized he has far less value, and that that matches their own internal valuation of him. 

Now you could say that his value is low and is likely to go up, but if their internal assessment of him is actually that his value, despite being much lower than public assessments, is actually lower than, say, Baltimore's, and he's not likely to improve, the smart thing to do would be to take as much value as you can for him.

Is that a lot of assumptions? Yes. Could it be just a blunder? Yes. But we really don't know yet.

[Docwaukee]

25 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

You're assuming Jones is considered to have a value comparable to what most prospect sites rate him at. It's entirely possible that over the course of the offseason with deals being discussed that they've realized he has far less value, and that that matches their own internal valuation of him. 

Now you could say that his value is low and is likely to go up, but if their internal assessment of him is actually that his value, despite being much lower than public assessments, is actually lower than, say, Baltimore's, and he's not likely to improve, the smart thing to do would be to take as much value as you can for him.

Is that a lot of assumptions? Yes. Could it be just a blunder? Yes. But we really don't know yet.

I think this is all true or at least could be true about Jones.  Although it's unlikely his value is that low to every team yet other teams might not match up well with us in trade.  

But if all Jones can get is Cobb and some cash then we'd have been better off keeping Jones on the off chance he improves his stock.  He's entering his age 23 season so it's not like he's 27.  He's also got some positional versatility. He actually had a pretty easy path to the majors this year.  Rengifo and Barreto sucking and either Fletch or Iglesias going on the DL.  Or throw him in RF some.  

 

[Pancake Bear]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think this is all true or at least could be true about Jones.  Although it's unlikely his value is that low to every team yet other teams might not match up well with us in trade.  

But if all Jones can get is Cobb and some cash then we'd have been better off keeping Jones on the off chance he improves his stock.  He's entering his age 23 season so it's not like he's 27.  He's also got some positional versatility. He actually had a pretty easy path to the majors this year.  Rengifo and Barreto sucking and either Fletch or Iglesias going on the DL.  Or throw him in RF some.  

 

The most obvious answer is for some reason they overpaid. Why is not entirely clear. All that gives me pause on that is simply if it's so obvious to literally everyone, why would they make such an obvious error, which makes me wonder if we're missing something. I guess we'll see. 

[Docwaukee]

There is one way that Cobb could actually help this team.  If the Angels agree to pay some of his deferred salary instead of the money in 2021 and he essentially pitches for free for the Angels this year.  I am not sure this is even possible.  If the Angels can somehow find a way to pay him in 2030-32 then maybe it make a little sense.  I could see a path to that considering that he's got 4.5m deferred this year which is probably prorated over the payout from 2022-2032.  

If the halos pay him say 1m in 2021 and then about half a mil in each of the next ten years then he could be a decent backup arm as 6 or 7 on the depth chart should the shit hit the fan.  

that wouldn't change the financial position of the team for 2021 and potentially allow them to make more moves.  

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

The most obvious answer is for some reason they overpaid. Why is not entirely clear. All that gives me pause on that is simply if it's so obvious to literally everyone, why would they make such an obvious error, which makes me wonder if we're missing something. I guess we'll see. 

see my post above.  I think that's the path to this making more sense.  

[Docwaukee]

The more I think about it, the more I have to believe that the Angels are taking advantage of that deferred money somehow.  I really want to believe Minasian would make a savvy move like that.  

I've been critical of the idea that Minasian would trade someone like Heaney but maybe that is the path to getting a guy like Bauer.  

Could it be that Perry has a string of moves lined up?  Maybe.  

I hope so.  

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

The more I think about it, the more I have to believe that the Angels are taking advantage of that deferred money somehow.  I really want to believe Minasian would make a savvy move like that.  

I've been critical of the idea that Minasian would trade someone like Heaney but maybe that is the path to getting a guy like Bauer.  

Could it be that Perry has a string of moves lined up?  Maybe.  

I hope so.  

Well, Callaway sure won't be the reason why not anymore. 

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

I agree with you completely that the price that has been paid is baffling. I'm just not as optimistic as you are that there's more headed the Angels way. 

I think it's just a lopsided trade. 

One or two happen every winter and this winter, we're on the wrong side of one. Just like last year, we were on the right side of one, though the other side didn't know it.

 

I'm not optimistic that there's more headed the Angels way; I'm just pointing out that the alternate is, well, not good. It is just so blatantly dumb, that I have to leave the door open that there's more to it. But I fear that there isn't, so my impression of Perry has definitely gone down a notch.

I mean, if this is all there is to it then we're left with an uncomfortable fact: Perry isn't as smart as we hoped he was. I just see no other conclusion that can be made, if this is really all there is. 

So in a way the worst part about it isn't the trade itself, but the fact that he made it. It is not a good sign.

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

The more I think about it, the more I have to believe that the Angels are taking advantage of that deferred money somehow.  I really want to believe Minasian would make a savvy move like that.  

I've been critical of the idea that Minasian would trade someone like Heaney but maybe that is the path to getting a guy like Bauer.  

Could it be that Perry has a string of moves lined up?  Maybe.  

I hope so.  

See my post above. Here's the problem: The only way this makes any kind of sense is if there's more to it - either a prospect, or another deal lined up. And even then, why must he trade Jones? Why not just sign Shoemaker, Anderson, Leake, Archer or any number of guys who would cost the same or a few pennies more, and be as good or better than Cobb and not cost a useful player?

 

[Pancake Bear]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I mean, if this is all there is to it then we're left with an uncomfortable fact: Perry isn't as smart as we hoped he was. I just see no other conclusion that can be made, if this is really all there is. 

He'd have to be in incredibly stupid to make a move that, as I noted above, *everyone* thinks is an overpay. You seem to allow that the only way the deal could be not bad is if something else is coming back. I would suggest that seems overly rigid. While I won't say you're wrong for certain, if you aren't, the Angels are really screwed. Personally, I see a number of options that could explain why this made sense to them, including some (that have been mentioned) that could make this a good deal for the Angels. I'm taking a, 'I can't see the whole picture' and 'wait and see' approach before I say this trade is a dud and bad omen. 

[Angelsjunky]

15 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

He'd have to be in incredibly stupid to make a move that, as I noted above, *everyone* thinks is an overpay. You seem to allow that the only way the deal could be not bad is if something else is coming back. I would suggest that seems overly rigid. While I won't say you're wrong for certain, if you aren't, the Angels are really screwed. Personally, I see a number of options that could explain why this made sense to them, including some (that have been mentioned) that could make this a good deal for the Angels. I'm taking a, 'I can't see the whole picture' and 'wait and see' approach before I say this trade is a dud and bad omen. 

What am I missing in my rigidity? Here are the options, as I see it:

#1 Trade as is...Angels see something no one else does. 

#2 Trade as is...But Angels have another pending trade involving another pitcher, so Cobb acquired for insurance.

#3 Trade unfinished...A prospect coming along with Cobb.

Again, am I missing a possibility?

If it is #1--which is most likely--I don't see how one can say it isn't just a dumb trade. What are the Angels seeing that no one else is? Is it because Maddon likes him? Why Cobb instead of any number of others, without losing Jones? Why overpay?

If it is #2, we'll just have to wait and see, but I still don't see why they had to trade Jones for Cobb rather than just signing one of the above-mentioned pitchers.

If it is #3, well, that is the only way it makes sense to me.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What am I missing in my rigidity? Here are the options, as I see it:

#1 Trade as is...Angels see something no one else does. 

#2 Trade as is...But Angels have another pending trade involving another pitcher, so Cobb acquired for insurance.

#3 Trade unfinished...A prospect coming along with Cobb.

Again, am I missing a possibility?

If it is #1--which is most likely--I don't see how one can say it isn't just a dumb trade. What are the Angels seeing that no one else is? Is it because Maddon likes him? Why Cobb instead of any number of others, without losing Jones? Why overpay?

If it is #2, we'll just have to wait and see, but I still don't see why they had to trade Jones for Cobb rather than just signing one of the above-mentioned pitchers.

If it is #3, well, that is the only way it makes sense to me.

even if there is no one else, then best case is that he essentially got Cobb for almost free in 2021.  Maybe Arte told him that there's no more money.  Alternatively, another move is coming to either clear some payroll or a trade for someone better than what we've got.  

Why couldn't it be that he got a rotation arm to replace someone else and did so for way less in 2021 than it would have cost to add a guy like shoe.  And maybe they like Cobb more than any of those super cheap options.  

paying Cobb anything more than 2-3 mil in 2021 and it's a mistake imo.  

I'm telling you a hoping at the same time that it's the deferred money because it would restore my faith in the move not being outright dumb.  So I'll give it a couple days and then continue my ranting if necessary.  

[Pancake Bear]

30 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What am I missing in my rigidity? Here are the options, as I see it:

I didn't see you list as an option previously to this quoted post that your evaluation of either player could be wrong, but I could have missed it. It appears some believe that prospect ratings have overhyped Jones. Obviously that remains to be seen. But if that is true, is it impossible that Cobb is worth more than 3m? Certainly it seems like Minasian thinks he is.

There could also be, as Dochalo has suggested, that there is some other benefit that Minasian is using this trade for to facilitate some other move, and this particular trade could be well-suited for that purpose due to the deferred money somehow.

Is that optimistic? Probably. I just find it hard, as I've said numerous times today, to believe that a GM, even a rookie GM, would make that big of an overpay to the point that everyone on here is wondering what is wrong with him.

It's very possible that we'll find out very soon that Minasian (/Maddon) just really likes Cobb and was willing to overpay to bring him in. And it's also very possible that Jones will turn into a Zobrist-type super-utility guy with a solid amount of value and we'll be talking about this idiotic trade for years to come.

[Second Base]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm not optimistic that there's more headed the Angels way; I'm just pointing out that the alternate is, well, not good. It is just so blatantly dumb, that I have to leave the door open that there's more to it. But I fear that there isn't, so my impression of Perry has definitely gone down a notch.

I mean, if this is all there is to it then we're left with an uncomfortable fact: Perry isn't as smart as we hoped he was. I just see no other conclusion that can be made, if this is really all there is. 

So in a way the worst part about it isn't the trade itself, but the fact that he made it. It is not a good sign.

Part of me wonders if it's mostly a character thing. Perhaps Maddon and Callaway think the pitching staff needs a veteran to step in and mentor the kids and eat some innings and Cobb fits the description and has a rapport with Maddon. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Archer was brought in as a multi-inning relief option as well. Getting the hang back together in Anaheim to see if they can't get something going here.

[Second Base]

Honestly, what concerns me most about the team at this point it's the potential of losing Callaway. The man is a wizard with pitchers and losing him might turn Bundy into a pumpkin, undo everything Barria did, and Callaway may have been the one that saw something in Cobb, and now if he's out of the picture, someone else will be left working with him.

[Stradling]

Mentor the kids?  I mean I guess but the only kid projected to start after he’s acquired is Canning. 

[Angelsfan1984]

Any one of us is capable of showing the pitching staff how to send donger pics. So at least that’s covered 

[Dtwncbad]

9 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

 

 

LOL!! I tried 2 different posts from my phone but it was really messing up. This website and google chrome on my phone do not get along. It's better if I use this website with firefox which I do from my laptop but not my phone. Anyway, 2 separate posts were supposed to be:

MLBTR wrote; It’s rather surprising to see Jones included in this swap. While his stock has tumbled in recent seasons, he’s a former second-round draft pick who at one point ranked among MLB’s top 100 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America ranked Jones 11th on the Halos’ 2020-21 list. The 23-year-old Jones went 3-for-7 in a very brief MLB debut with the Angels in 2020, so he’s a departure from some of the Orioles’ other prospect acquisitions. He’s a near-MLB-ready piece that could be plugged into the big league mix as soon as this season. Jones has played second base and center field throughout his minor league career. His bat has stalled a bit in Double-A, where he’s batted .237/.315/.338 in a very pitcher-friendly environment.

The next post was Arte hasn't been burned by any big SP contracts so I'm not sure why he's obsessed with all these 1 year deals for mediocre pitchers. All of these stupid one year contracts are baffling and they have proven over and over that they don't help the club win.

Thanks for keeping it light. 

[Junkballer]

6 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

The most obvious answer is for some reason they overpaid. Why is not entirely clear. All that gives me pause on that is simply if it's so obvious to literally everyone, why would they make such an obvious error, which makes me wonder if we're missing something. I guess we'll see. 

One of possible factors, and in this day of being able to quantify seemingly every aspect of performance, is that Maddon and Minasian have identified something missing within the culture of the pitching staff.  While attributing this factor to the apparent overpay is pure conjecture, I think we have heard a lot from Minasian about him valuing character and culture.  

At the risk of sounding like a Pollyanna, here are some quotes from a 2016 article:

Quote

"When he goes out there, I think he's that bulldog that we've been looking for."

 

And he has been just as impressed with how Cobb, with the most baseball smarts and experience of the starters, has impacted the team on the days he isn't working.

"He's generally the first pitcher to go over to the pitcher that comes out of the game to talk about the outing," Cash said. "You can tell he cares a ton.

"And he's doing everything I would imagine with the younger guys, trying to help those guys and discuss different situations."

Cobb, 29 in October, doesn't limit his sharing to the pitchers, last week suggesting to outfielder and good friend Steven Souza Jr. that he take a simplified try-easier approach that has made a big difference.

 

"He really has that mentality of just a mature ace, of handling a staff and a clubhouse and just the way he goes about every little detail of his business," Souza said.

"He handles everything like a total professional."

Cobb saw enough of buddy Matt Moore's return to know it won't necessarily always be as smooth as Wednesday. He allowed a leadoff double that led to a first-inning run but hardly anything else, retiring 11 straight before giving up his only other hit and throwing 93 pitches. And he, eventually, felt good about it.

"There's some things I know I can help some of the younger guys with," Cobb said. "Things you can only learn from watching guys on the mound, things that I learned watching David and (James) Shields, that you had to rip the ball out of their hands come the seventh, eighth inning.

"They were going to be out there no matter what damage was done to them or what kind of shape the bullpen was in or what the game situation was. And that's what I want to do: go out, throw seven, eight innings each start. I didn't think I'd have much realistic opportunity given the pitch counts and stuff. But now that I've gotten to that point, there is no going back. I'm going to keep pushing that envelope."

Alex Cobb's pitching, leadership will be huge boost to Rays (w/video) (tampabay.com)

Obviously, we can take these kind of articles with a grain of salt because almost exclusively depends on how he does on the mound, but I personally get the sense that Maddon finds the clubhouse chemistry lacking.  And, who knows, if they knew the Callaway stuff was going to blow up, having a sort of player/coach in the clubhouse as they transition to a new coach wouldnt be a bad idea.

[Torridd]

It's very hard for me to believe that Minasian would pick up Cobb because he needs him as a bigger trade in which he may be dealing Heaney. The Angels need as many pitchers as possible and I don't see trading Heaney as a smart option. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Torridd said:

It's very hard for me to believe that Minasian would pick up Cobb because he needs him as a bigger trade in which he may be dealing Heaney. The Angels need as many pitchers as possible and I don't see trading Heaney as a smart option. 

Yep...   I think he's grabbing as many SPs as possible to avoid having to drawn into AAA and pull up a guy that's not ready.  Suarez has been rushed and possibly hurt by this -- they have also burned optioned years as a result.

[Stradling]

There’s some value in trading Heaney.  He has one year of control.  His return should be similar if not better than Matz.  They could target pitching prospects in a trade of Heaney, thus mitigating the loss of our prospects in any deal we could make for a starter of higher caliber than Heaney.  Lastly it frees up $7 million in luxury tax space. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

There’s some value in trading Heaney.  He has one year of control.  His return should be similar if not better than Matz.  They could target pitching prospects in a trade of Heaney, thus mitigating the loss of our prospects in any deal we could make for a starter of higher caliber than Heaney.  Lastly it frees up $7 million in luxury tax space. 

I think I would’ve considered what the Jays gave up for Matz, depending on what else could have been done for the rotation. 

[Mark68]

19 minutes ago, Torridd said:

It's very hard for me to believe that Minasian would pick up Cobb because he needs him as a bigger trade in which he may be dealing Heaney. The Angels need as many pitchers as possible and I don't see trading Heaney as a smart option. 

Yes, they need as many pitchers as possible, but they also need BETTER pitchers, so if dealing Heaney (or any other pitcher) gets us a better pitcher, then so be it.

 

I just don't think that cornering the market of #3/4/5 pitchers is going to cut it.

[Turd Ferguson]

Still holding out hope that this one falls through...c'mon Arte, this would be a good one to nix!