Analyzing the remaining starting pitcher options

[Pancake Bear]

There seems to be a wide array of different views on the pitchers available. On any given pitcher, there are both positive and negative views on him from the different posters. 

Obviously anyone available right now (or any time) has upside and downside involved. Whether they're good but cost a lot of money/there is a big injury risk, or they used to be good but we don't know if they still are, or they're inexpensive but we don't know if they're actually that good - any one of these realities is true for pretty much anyone available.

I'm not exactly a great pitching analyst. Most of us probably arent, tbh. But I'm curious to hear opinions more centralized. 

Basically what I had in mind is to list off the main guys whose names are being thrown around, give your thoughts on each, both positive and negative, whether you'd be interested in bringing them in, and what the likely cost would be (whether straight cost for FA or cost in players/prospects for trades).

The main names I see thrown around: 

FA: 
- Most likely: Ryu or Keuchel
- Less likely: Teheran (Fletch says he isn't available), probably a few others, too.

Trade possibilities: Jon Gray, Boyd, Ray, Archer, Price, Quintana, Happ, or someone else.

I'll give my thoughts on some of them when I get a chance to look at them all a bit more. I've looked at a couple of them today, but I want to take a bit more time.

[Ochocinco!]

Ok

[jchalos89]

Keuchel+Teheran+Boyd I want

[Inside Pitch]

38 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

The main names I see thrown around: 

FA: 
- Most likely: Ryu or Keuchel
- Less likely: Teheran (Fletch says he isn't available), probably a few others, too.

Trade possibilities: Jon Gray, Boyd, Ray, Archer, Price, Quintana, Happ, or someone else.

I'll give my thoughts on some of them when I get a chance to look at them all a bit more. I've looked at a couple of them today, but I want to take a bit more time.

Ryu and Keuchel are head and shoulders above whats out there -- truth is they are better than anyone that's been signed other than Stras, Cole, and Wheeler.   The projections for Teheran are pretty brutal -- but he may be someone that simply needs to be coached away from throwing his FB and focusing solely on throwing his sinker..  Basically the exact opposite of what everyone else is doing.  So, that's something the Angels are probably aware of and may limit their interest.

Quintana is better than he showed last year, he and Gray are probably the best options among the guys you're listing as trade candidates.   Happ was actually worse than his ERA last year -- they shouyld avoid him at all costs IMO.  Price is a massive risk because of his elbow, Archer has been trending in the wrong direction for a bit but hasn't reached awful status yet, despite his bad showing last season.

Robbie Ray probably deserves to be mentioned with Quintana and Gray, but... you gotta wonder how a 5 inning pitcher in the NL will translate to the AL....     @Dochalo has mentioned Joe Musgrove a few times and he really is worth looking at but, I wonder if Pittsburgh wouldnt ask for a lot simply because he was one of the names from the Cole trade.   I think @ettin and others have mentioned the Marlins as a team with a surplus of arms and a lack of quality position players...  You gotta think their scouts might be familiar with Thaiss from his days at VA and in the ACC -- he's been doing really well in winter ball and the Marlins mine the shit out of the DR and VZ winter leagues.

[robblin17]

I’m getting sick of these threads. No offense to you OP, but this shit has been hashed and rehashed numerous times. 

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, robblin17 said:

I’m getting sick of these threads. No offense to you OP, but this shit has been hashed and rehashed numerous times. 

LOL..  People really want to see them sign a pitcher..    Say what you willl these threades are still better than someone posting a link to a tweet that says --  Angels interested in (name of pitcher).    At least these threads are an attempt to talk about things, those tweets amount to nothing more than "no shit sherlock".

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

LOL..  People really want to see them sign a pitcher..    Say what you willl these threades are still better than someone posting a link to a tweet that says --  Angels interested in (name of pitcher).    At least these threads are an attempt to talk about things, those tweets amount to nothing more than "no shit sherlock".

"Hearing @AngelsWin.com is still interested on acquiring bueller for renigfo. No info on how that will happen. Also hearing @ladodgers are not interested" - Rosenthal

[Pancake Bear]

15 minutes ago, robblin17 said:

I’m getting sick of these threads. No offense to you OP, but this shit has been hashed and rehashed numerous times. 

No, I asked for specifics analysis of a given set of pitchers. I didn’t just create a new thread to create a new thread. I can’t help it if other posters use it indiscriminately to other threads. When I post later, I’ll give more an example of what I have in mind.

I will say, though, that your post seems like one they could fit into any thread, so: nice petard hoisting there. 

[robblin17]

21 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

No, I asked for specifics analysis of a given set of pitchers. I didn’t just create a new thread to create a new thread. I can’t help it if other posters use it indiscriminately to other threads. When I post later, I’ll give more an example of what I have in mind.

I will say, though, that your post seems like one they could fit into any thread, so: nice petard hoisting there. 

We should sign two pitchers of MLB quality. 

[Drink More Yakult]

1 minute ago, robblin17 said:

We should sign two pitchers of MLB quality. 

Good idea, can you make a thread about which you think would best fit?

[Second Base]

The Angels will need a 6 (well, 5 and a half) man rotation. And I'm confident in Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy and Canning all being productive members of this unit. 

The other guys, like Barria, Sandoval and Suarez will all get their chance next year too. You don't want to pencil them in as part of the rotation. But if the last few years have taught fans and front offices anything, it's that your rotation needs to be at minimum 8 deep. So their chances to pitch in the rotation will come organically and you don't need be making room for them. 

So it's pretty clear the Angels will be needing two more arms. And the identity, or quality of those two arms is largely dependent upon what's available, at what price and what the Angels have in hand. Working with Callaway is really going to help matters. But this is a pretty generic middle of the road expectation for each pitcher...that I have, which is probably too rosy for some, but I'm ok with that. Just innings and ERA, not the most compete picture, but again, just in general.

Ohtani - 125 innings and a 3.25 ERA

Canning - 125 innings and a 3.75 ERA

Heaney - 150 innings and a 4.00 ERA

Bundy - 170 innings and a 4.25 ERA

Or basically, I view Ohtani as a #2 starter, Canning as a low end #3 or high end #4. Heaney a standard 4th starter and Bundy a low end 4th starter or high end 5th starter. 

Sandoval and Barria I think will be on par with Bundy, just less durable at this stage of their development. Suarez, I'd need to see the velocity return before anything. He needs fixing for sure. 

The Angels, in my opinion need an ace, and need a #3 starter. If they get that, I believe they can legitimately catch the Astros and A's. If they get a couple mid rotation starters, I think it will be enough to make them a borderline playoff team. If they get a mid rotation starter and a back end starter, it will be enough to get them back into contention, but little else.

So if the goal is to win 84 games, then sure, get Keuchel and Boyd/Teharan. If the goal is 88-92 wins, then two of Keuchel, Price and Ray will be sufficient. If the Angels want to win 95-ish games, I think it needs to be Ryu/Gray and Price/Keuchel.

Now the fact that there likely 30-35 million to spend on the upcoming year and still needing a catcher shouldn't be an issue. Back-loading contracts is the norm, and quality defensive catchers are not expensive.

Personally, for me, I love the upside Ryu presents. He doesn't cost prospects or draft picks and he's shown he's fully capable of pitching at the front end of a rotation for extended periods of time. I also really like Price, and I don't believe his days as a #2/3 starter are done yet. 

Get Ryu done for 4/80 and offer the necessary prospects not named Marsh, Adell, Adams, Sandoval and Thaiss to get Price's salary down from 3/96 down to 3/60, with the Angels only owing about 15 million this year and 22 million thereafter. 

If you want to sub Price out for Keuchel, as long as he's coming in at c something like 3/50, I'd be ok with that too. Teams are desperate for pitching right now though, so I doubt Keuchel takes that sort of deal.

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Second Base

[robblin17]

1 minute ago, Drink More Yakult said:

Good idea, can you make a thread about which you think would best fit?

We could even trade for one, too. 

[Drink More Yakult]

7 minutes ago, robblin17 said:

We could even trade for one, too. 

Hopefully we can move Adell.

[Troll Daddy]

32 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The Angels will need a 6 (well, 5 and a half) man rotation. And I'm confident in Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy and Canning all being productive members of this unit. 

The other guys, like Barria, Sandoval and Suarez will all get their chance next year too. You don't want to pencil them in as part of the rotation. But if the last few years have taught fans and front offices anything, it's that your rotation needs to be at minimum 8 deep. So their chances to pitch in the rotation will come organically and you don't need be making room for them. 

So it's pretty clear the Angels will be needing two more arms. And the identity, or quality of those two arms is largely dependent upon what's available, at what price and what the Angels have in hand. Working with Callaway is really going to help matters. But this is a pretty generic middle of the road expectation for each pitcher...that I have, which is probably too rosy for some, but I'm ok with that. Just innings and ERA, not the most compete picture, but again, just in general.

Ohtani - 125 innings and a 3.25 ERA

Canning - 125 innings and a 3.75 ERA

Heaney - 150 innings and a 4.00 ERA

Bundy - 170 innings and a 4.25 ERA

Or basically, I view Ohtani as a #2 starter, Canning as a low end #3 or high end #4. Heaney a standard 4th starter and Bundy a low end 4th starter or high end 5th starter. 

Sandoval and Barria I think will be on par with Bundy, just less durable at this stage of their development. Suarez, I'd need to see the velocity return before anything. He needs fixing for sure. 

The Angels, in my opinion need an ace, and need a #3 starter. If they get that, I believe they can legitimately catch the Astros and A's. If they get a couple mid rotation starters, I think it will be enough to make them a borderline playoff team. If they get a mid rotation starter and a back end starter, it will be enough to get them back into contention, but little else.

So if the goal is to win 84 games, then sure, get Keuchel and Boyd/Teharan. If the goal is 88-92 wins, then two of Keuchel, Price and Ray will be sufficient. If the Angels want to win 95-ish games, I think it needs to be Ryu/Gray and Price/Keuchel.

Now the fact that there likely 30-35 million to spend on the upcoming year and still needing a catcher shouldn't be an issue. Back-loading contracts is the norm, and quality defensive catchers are not expensive.

Personally, for me, I love the upside Ryu presents. He doesn't cost prospects or draft picks and he's shown he's fully capable of pitching at the front end of a rotation for extended periods of time. I also really like Price, and I don't believe his days as a #2/3 starter are done yet. 

Get Ryu done for 4/80 and offer the necessary prospects not named Marsh, Adell, Adams, Sandoval and Thaiss to get Price's salary down from 3/96 down to 3/60, with the Angels only owing about 15 million this year and 22 million thereafter. 

If you want to sub Price out for Keuchel, as long as he's coming in at c something like 3/50, I'd be ok with that too. Teams are desperate for pitching right now though, so I doubt Keuchel takes that sort of deal.

 

 

 

Ryu is the only true Ace left (based on last season) on the board. Angels need to sign him no matter what the cost. 

[VariousCrap]

IMO, Keuchel is a must for this team.  He is a ground ball pitcher and with the Angels infield defense, this type of pitcher works.

After signing him, I think the Angels trade for another starter.  I have no idea who though.

[Pancake Bear]

We'll be getting a pitcher, we may be getting two. It seems likely we'll go hard for either Keuchel or Ryu, but we might pivot to a trade option instead or in addition to one of those guys. It sounds like the money is not there to pursue both. 

I don't claim my opinions are all correct or even very good, I just want to start some more precise discussion on some of these guys. I like seeing posts like that in other threads and thought it might be good to have a central place for it.

Keuchel:

- Only 31, so he should have a couple more good years in him
- A lefty; we're more RH centered at the moment on the pitching staff
- No QO attached
- His ERA was a solid 3.75 over half a season last year, and as recently as 2017, he had a sub 3.00 ERA
- Small sample size, but if you take out his 10 innings in June (5.06 ERA), his ERA is even better (3.52 to 3.86 in July - October)
- Innings have always been good for Keuchel; he put up 200+ in 2018 and a pitched a full half season when he signed with the Braves in June; 2016-2017 were a little down, but he was over 200 the two before that; he's only pitched less than 150 innings in a season in 2017 (barely - 145) since his first year, 2012
- More on the concerning side, he posted a career worst HR% and hard hit percentage and worst weak contact rate; for a guy who pitches more to contact, that's not ideal and could suggest he's about to fall off a cliff 
- I wouldn't be crazy about giving him four years, but that's probably what it will take; if you can get him for 60 (unlikely), I don't really care if it's 3 or 4 years; 75-80 or more is really pushing it, but you might not be able to sign him for less

Ryu:

- 32, and with a history of injuries
- Only 740 innings on his career compared to 1300 for Keuchel who is a year younger, but durability is a real concern
- The only times he's pitched more than this last season was in 2013-14 - over five years ago; aside from that, the three years prior to 2019 were 82, 126, and 4 respectively
- His last two seasons (265 IP) showed elite control on contact vs opposing hitters (just over a 2.00 ERA over that time), despite a solid, not great K%
- The fact that the Dodgers haven't seriously pursued him is a bit worrisome - Michael Duarte (NBC LA reporter) tweeted that the Dodgers feel like 4yr, 80m (Rosenthal report) is more than Ryu is worth
- I've seen some speculation that the issue is both durability and personal issues
- I think if you pursue Ryu, you'd want to give him a little bit lower base (15m?) and incentives based on performance (i.e. bonuses based on starts after 15-20 stats made; he can earn up to 25m if he gets 30 starts); make the fourth year vest automatically if he gets at least 20 starts in the third year; I'd be okay with a deal structured like that

Boyd: 

- Nice contract status - he's 28 with 3 years of control
- He's an interesting target because he put up ridiculous K numbers this year, and his ERA was extremely solid through May (72 ip) and still decent overall through July (around a 4.00 ERA); but if you just look at his June, July (both not great), and August (horrendous), you end up with nearly a 6.00 ERA over about 90 ip; his final 20 innings in Sept/Oct were an okay 4.43 ERA
- Another issue is that before last year, his K rate was starkly lower than the 11.56% he posted in 2019 - it ranged from 6.75 in his rookie season (2015) to 8.40 in 2018; it did, however, imrpove each year
- Also concerning is his HR/FB rate went to a career worst 18.2 after 10-12% the previous 3 seasons (in 2015, in 57 ip, it was 17.7)
- So, on one hand he's controllable, but on the other hand, it's tough to know what you're really getting with him
- The other issue is it sounds like Detroit isn't looking to let him go for cheap, and why should they? He's one of their better trade assets and they don't have to move him yet; they could wait a year, hope he posts an improvement on 2019, and still trade him with two years of control; of course, the downside is if he stays the same (a roughly 4.5 ERA pitcher), that isn't super valuable - The Angels just acquired Dylan Bundy, who was similar to that in a tougher environment (AL East, Baltimore) for peanuts

I'll look at some of the others later. 

[VariousCrap]

5 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Ryu is the only true Ace left (based on last season) on the board. Angels need to sign him no matter what the cost. 

 

Ryu is also an injury waiting to happen.  Just like Jeff Fletcher mentioned, there has to be a reason the Dodgers haven't resigned him.  They always do for their own free agents they like.

Edited December 18, 2019 by VariousCrap

[JAHV76]

Just curios is Felix Pena not a option as a spot starter next season. Is he injured or out of options? I thought he pitched decently at times.

[VariousCrap]

1 minute ago, JAHV76 said:

Just curios is Felix Pena not a option as a spot starter next season. Is he injured or out of options? I thought he pitched decently at times.

 

I think while Pena had some good games last year, it was evident he isn't starter material.  Putting him in the bullpen makes the Angels bullpen even better.

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, VariousCrap said:

 

Ryu is also an injury waiting to happen.  Just like Jeff Fletcher mentioned, there has to be a reason the Dodgers haven't resigned him.  They always do for the free agents they like.

They aren't always right, but yeah, it's a legitimate question. Clearly there is some issue there if they won't even go 4/80 for a guy who has pitched around a 2 ERA over the last two seasons. Maybe it is just health concerns - they've been okay bringing Rich Hill back every year on short term deals, and Friedman is notoriously tight on giving out years to starters. But some others here have suggested there may be conditioning issues also. With a guy like that, you kinda worry about signing him to a big deal off a career year in a contract year. 

[Angels_Fan]

Keuchel and Gray would be the best the Angels can do out of the remaining free agents and  reportedly available trade targets. 

[Drink More Yakult]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

They aren't always right, but yeah, it's a legitimate question. Clearly there is some issue there if they won't even go 4/80 for a guy who has pitched around a 2 ERA over the last two seasons. Maybe it is just health concerns - they've been okay bringing Rich Hill back every year on short term deals, and Friedman is notoriously tight on giving out years to starters. But some others here have suggested there may be conditioning issues also. With a guy like that, you kinda worry about signing him to a big deal off a career year in a contract year. 

If we sign Ryu, his contract will age worse than Pujols. Dude does not give a shit about his body and should not be trusted with millions of dollars on the hope that he doesn’t all-you-can eat KBBQ himself out of even the largest Angels jerseys available.

[Angels_Fan]

Ryu is probably the kind of player who’d just mail it in after getting his contract. The Dodgers know that in all likelihood and are avoiding him.

[CanadianHalo]

4 minutes ago, Angels_Fan said:

Keuchel and Gray would be the best the Angels can do out of the remaining free agents and  reportedly available trade targets. 

I agree and it’s what I’m hoping for at this point.

I’m thinking Marsh would have to be included in a deal for Gray and I think I’d be ok with that 

[T.G.]

Hyun-Jin Colon doesn't excite me at all.

Neither does Bartolo Ryu

Edited December 18, 2019 by True Grich