MLBTradeRumors FA Predictions // Cole, Miley, and Castro

[VariousCrap]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

This is the way Andrew Friedman has operated the Dodgers ever since he took over.  What was the last big contract he has given out?

They spent a lot to re-sign Turner and Jansen even though they were only bidding against themselves.  Pollock got a decent contract.

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

They spent a lot to re-sign Turner and Jansen even though they were only bidding against themselves.  Pollock got a decent contract.

I think they do spend to re-sign their own, but they generally don't spend a lot to sign "outsiders."  Pollock actually got the biggest non-Dodger contract from Friedman I believe, and yeah - that was 5/60.  Not cheap, but definitely not "big spender" territory, either.  I don't think of the Dodgers as a team who will go out and sign players like Cole, Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, etc, at least not with Friedman in charge.

[VariousCrap]

7 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think they do spend to re-sign their own, but they generally don't spend a lot to sign "outsiders."  Pollock actually got the biggest non-Dodger contract from Friedman I believe, and yeah - that was 5/60.  Not cheap, but definitely not "big spender" territory, either.  I don't think of the Dodgers as a team who will go out and sign players like Cole, Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, etc, at least not with Friedman in charge.

 

I guess with their farm system they don't really need to.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, VariousCrap said:

 

I guess with their farm system they don't really need to.

Yep.  If anything, he "buys" prospects via trades, like he did with Puig last year.  Those prospects he acquired are now consensus top 100 prospects, I think.  Ideally, I'd like for us to build the same minor league powerhouse.  We'll see.

[ScottT]

2/12m for Hudson. 

What a business.  

Buttttttt, tv ratings and kids....

[ScottT]

I'm hoping for a bit more than their predictions.  Castro, especially, seems like a dud.... two years?  

I think I'd prefer Wheeler, Odorizzi, and someone else....but that's not how these things work.  It's a bit complicated.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Cole at 8 yrs 32 does not sound bad at all, ideal would be 7, while offering 8 years with less money..IDk 8yt/ 240 mil

no to Miley, Heck NO......

fine with Castro, what wouldn't mind D'anauds

Seems like Wheeler might get a contract north of 100 or close to, i feel like he'll either be the overpriced or the best value played from this free agency.  

[Stradling]

37 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think they do spend to re-sign their own, but they generally don't spend a lot to sign "outsiders."  Pollock actually got the biggest non-Dodger contract from Friedman I believe, and yeah - that was 5/60.  Not cheap, but definitely not "big spender" territory, either.  I don't think of the Dodgers as a team who will go out and sign players like Cole, Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, etc, at least not with Friedman in charge.

Greinke?

[Warfarin]

38 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Greinke?

Wasn't signed by Friedman - Colletti signed him.

[Angelsjunky]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I still think what's being sold behind the scenes is that after 2020 or maybe 2021, guys like Canning, Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, Fletcher, Sandoval, Suarez, Thaiss, Barria etc plus whoever else is in the pipeline will become significant or major contributors by then and the key is still bridging a gap to that outside of having Cole and Trout as your centerpieces.  

So some short term payroll bumps but not excessive.  Sorry to disappoint.  

 

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

This is what I really hope to be true. Don’t go all out spending this winter to try and force things. We’re adding a ton of young talent to the 40-man the next couple offseasons. A lot of it is here now. But we also shouldn’t expect the kids to lead us this year. Canning could have growing pains (or actual pains), Adell might not quite be ready. Thaiss and Rengifo could still be shaky. Come 2021, these guys should be ready to compete. 

Get Cole or another top arm this year, we will need it for the foreseeable future, but I’m cool keeping the other adds light. Over-spending for mid-tier could hurt us.

There’s a whole host of guys on the market again next year we can dig , guys I like as much or more than Wheeler, Odorizzi, Hamels, and Bumgarner.

I think you guys are onto something.  With Trout-Cole you'd have the best player in the game and one of the best starters; build around that with a homegrown core, with the idea of an upward trajectory over the next few years, peaking in the 2022-2025 range, which is consequently when the Astros will likely be in decline.

2020-21 could see wildcard contention, but the key is to see positive development - not only in the win column, but the next great team's young core coming of age. Maybe 85 wins in 2020, 90 in 2021, and 95+ in 2022 and beyond. 

[UndertheHalo]

If the Angels get Cole I don’t really give a shit about anything else.  We‘ll have our ace and maybe the best pitcher in baseball.  Always go with the best player. 

[Docwaukee]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

I think you guys are onto something.  With Trout-Cole you'd have the best player in the game and one of the best starters; build around that with a homegrown core, with the idea of an upward trajectory over the next few years, peaking in the 2022-2025 range, which is consequently when the Astros will likely be in decline.

2020-21 could see wildcard contention, but the key is to see positive development - not only in the win column, but the next great team's young core coming of age. Maybe 85 wins in 2020, 90 in 2021, and 95+ in 2022 and beyond. 

this is where I would like to see Arte and Billy do better than Miley and Castro. Maybe Gibson and Grandal if the latter is for 3yrs.  

[Pancake Bear]

Signing Castro seems pointless to me, but I'm not going to pretend to know much about catchers. Seems like a basically random prediction.

I don't really have a problem with Miley. He put up 167 innings in 33 starts last year at a 3.98 ERA. While that might not look all that impressive, all three of those numbers are better than any qualified starter on the team last year. If we got Cole (which, in their prediction, we did), that would put us at: Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Miley. I'd prefer another legit option, or Miley as the third signing (40m between him and Cole in their prediction would allow us to grab another pitcher instead of Castro at around 15ish, maybe).

[Pancake Bear]

Just want to throw out there something I noticed on the mlbtr predictions article: 

"We haven’t seen a significant eight-year contract for a pitcher since Mike Hampton signed with the Rockies 19 years ago."

Given how cautious teams are these days compared to previous years, I'm highly skeptical that changes this offseason. Could it happen? Yeah. But it still feels like a stretch.

[Second Base]

5 hours ago, Warfarin said:

We might have to "settle" for a staggered approach.  For example - this offseason, if we do what MLBTR suggests, we have SP1, SP4, and C covered.  Disappointing, but at least a step in the right direction.

Then, next offseason, when Cozart and Simmons depart (although Simba's departure is not a given, it's a possibility) and we shed ~27mil in payroll, then maybe we re-allocate the money that offseason and sign a SP2/SP3, then fill any other gaps that are necessary.

Not as exciting to split it up, but maybe that's what'll end up happening.

If Eppler had job security, sure. He doesn't, so I'm expecting a more impactful winter.

[Second Base]

8 hours ago, totdprods said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

• 1. Gerrit Cole - 8/$256m
• 24. Wade Miley - 2/$16m
• 34. Jason Castro - 2/$10m

This actually seems pretty realistic, though a bit underwhelming. Might need to swing a trade or round out the pen and bench with some solid low-dollar signs to really make the offseason feel like a win if those were the three we landed.

They have Wheeler at 5/$100m to Philly and Grandal to Cincy for 4/$68m. I'd pass on both for those amounts. Ryu at 3/$55m for Bowden at 3/$54m for MLBTR has me a little interested though. 

Ryu makes a ton of sense. Low dollar amount for ace potential, already in So-Cal, many Japanese and Koreans prefer West Coast teams, doesn't cost a draft pick or international bonus slot, and because of injury history, relatively low miles in the last 3-4 years. Limited side sessions between starts already fits was Eppler has been pushing.  Weak contact approach already fits because of the caliber defense Eppler has built.

Another pitcher that is highly intriguing at the dollar amount predicted is Michael Pineda. Eppler traded for him once when he was AGM in New York, ace potential was realized for a solid portion of last year, peripheral numbers seem to back him. He's the exact sort of pitcher that smarter teams like the Astros scoop up for nothing and turn into aces.

And at 1/5, there's no reason not to push for Rich Hill either. Even if he only gives you 10 starts, that's still 10 quality outings you're going to get at practically no investment. If he goes 20 starts like I think, then you're golden. It takes the pressure off, while also opening up an opportunity for either Barria, Suarez or Sandoval to grab a spot too.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, RBM said:

Eppler can/must/will do better than this. If this is HIS idea of realistic he’ll likely be done this year. 

8 years for Cole is dicey. 
He can do much better than Miley at #2. 
He can do much better than Castro at C.

The most impressive thing about this article is they actually understand the team is interested in SP’s and a catcher. They are “generalists” looking at all 30 clubs. We are “specialists” looking at this team. Last week there was another report one of the Angels major needs was help in the IF.  Really?  This is the time of year when the uninformed inform (Bowden). The reality is they/we don’t really know how it will play out but the ride is fun. 

Honestly we don’t know if he can do much better than Miley.  If Arte tells him to sign Cole but keeps the spending at around $45 million it could get sketchy. 

[AngelsFaninGA]

Cole is obviously great, but the other two don't move the needle at all. Castro is a throwaway player and Miley is Cahill/Harvey-esque signing. He'll regress to to a 5+ ERA and settle in as a forgettable #5/6 starter

[Torridd]

12 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Cole is truly the prize, and it’s really rare to see someone like this hit the market.

I agree with what you are saying.  We might just have to be a bit more patient and wait two offseason to entirely rebuild the team into a juggernaut.  This offseason, a lot of great work can be done - signing a true ace, finding a decent SP who can serve as SP3 after Cole/Ohtani, etc.

I do hope we are able to “solve” our catcher issue this offseason, too.  Getting an ace and starting caliber catcher would be really huge.  It may not fix all our problems, but it should at least make us a fringe contender.  This, combined with the organic growth of our young core, should make this a fun team to watch.

Don't take this wrong, but how long are you willing to wait before the Angels get into the playoffs again?

[DCAngelsFan]

5 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Just want to throw out there something I noticed on the mlbtr predictions article: 

"We haven’t seen a significant eight-year contract for a pitcher since Mike Hampton signed with the Rockies 19 years ago."

Given how cautious teams are these days compared to previous years, I'm highly skeptical that changes this offseason. Could it happen? Yeah. But it still feels like a stretch.

And just a reminder how that worked out - he signed an 8-year, $121m contract to start the 2001 season, he missed two years to injury, put up 2.9 bWar over those 8 years, and the Rockies cut him his last check a year ago for his deferred payments.      

I really want Cole - who doesn't?  But that contract amount would be a huge gamble.  If he's the only significant pitcher we can afford, and he's injured or fails to perform?  We'll be in purgatory for years (more.)  

[arch stanton]

There’s always a chance that Cole sucks and isn’t worth it but as we sit now the suckitude is guaranfuckingteed so do you wanna hide behind mama’s skirt or take a shot at winning for a change?

[Warfarin]

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

Ryu makes a ton of sense. Low dollar amount for ace potential, already in So-Cal, many Japanese and Koreans prefer West Coast teams, doesn't cost a draft pick or international bonus slot, and because of injury history, relatively low miles in the last 3-4 years. Limited side sessions between starts already fits was Eppler has been pushing.  Weak contact approach already fits because of the caliber defense Eppler has built.

Another pitcher that is highly intriguing at the dollar amount predicted is Michael Pineda. Eppler traded for him once when he was AGM in New York, ace potential was realized for a solid portion of last year, peripheral numbers seem to back him. He's the exact sort of pitcher that smarter teams like the Astros scoop up for nothing and turn into aces.

And at 1/5, there's no reason not to push for Rich Hill either. Even if he only gives you 10 starts, that's still 10 quality outings you're going to get at practically no investment. If he goes 20 starts like I think, then you're golden. It takes the pressure off, while also opening up an opportunity for either Barria, Suarez or Sandoval to grab a spot too.

Yeah, honestly - if we can't get Wheeler as our 2nd option, I'd love Ryu.  Hill is a good idea too - very cheap and a very modest commitment.

Cole, Ryu, Ohtani, Canning, Heaney, and Hill would be a great starting staff, IMO.

[Warfarin]

29 minutes ago, Torridd said:

Don't take this wrong, but how long are you willing to wait before the Angels get into the playoffs again?

Don't get me wrong - it's not what I'd want, but I guess I'd reluctantly understand if that's the ultimate viewpoint.  Obviously, I would like to see them sign Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal this offseason.  That's been my "perfect" offseason plan, and it still is.

[eligrba]

I think that many of last year's pitching problems will go away with the new pitching coach.  I know all of the youngsters pitched poorly but in their defense,  it is not clear whether they had any help.