MLBTradeRumors FA Predictions // Cole, Miley, and Castro

[Chuck]

If Miley was the only other pitcher the Angels signed or acquired besides a top tier arm, I'd be pretty disappointed in the offseason unless the team went bonkers and signed Donaldson and Grandal in addition to say a Gerrit Cole.

Wade Miley would be a good third arm to slot behind or in between Heaney and Canning though. 

Castro or d'Arnaud would be good pickups for C if the team goes all in on starting pitching. 

[Angel Oracle]

5 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

If Miley was the only other pitcher the Angels signed or acquired besides a top tier arm, I'd be pretty disappointed in the offseason unless the team went bonkers and signed Donaldson and Grandal in addition to say a Gerrit Cole.

Wade Miley would be a good third arm to slot behind or in between Heaney and Canning though. 

Castro or d'Arnaud would be good pickups for C if the team goes all in on starting pitching. 

This, and add Yan Gomes to the catching choices.

[Angel Oracle]

9 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

Signing Castro seems pointless to me, but I'm not going to pretend to know much about catchers. Seems like a basically random prediction.

I don't really have a problem with Miley. He put up 167 innings in 33 starts last year at a 3.98 ERA. While that might not look all that impressive, all three of those numbers are better than any qualified starter on the team last year. If we got Cole (which, in their prediction, we did), that would put us at: Cole, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Miley. I'd prefer another legit option, or Miley as the third signing (40m between him and Cole in their prediction would allow us to grab another pitcher instead of Castro at around 15ish, maybe).

I'm leery about his September though, as it was pretty bad, to the point that they left him off of the post-season roster. 

If he was the third pitcher signed on a short 1-2 year deal for about $5 million/year, I could be okay with that.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Angel Oracle

[Lou]

Wade Miley in second half of 2019 = 5.07 ERA (15 games)

In September, Miley allowed 21 runs over 11.1 ip for a 16.68 ERA.

[Mark68]

17 hours ago, Dochalo said:

this is completely realistic except I think Cole gets 7 years.  Other than that I can see this exact scenario playing out.  

It's 45m without back loading and would put the team around 190m in payroll.  

I am certainly hoping for more than that, but I am not expecting more. 

This would make the team a lot better.  90 wins?  probably not.  85 wins or so?  probably.  

To get above that with this haul, there would have to be that magical mystery piece/player who we collect off the scrap heap and they turn into the next Morton or Arrieta.  Like a Danny Salazar or something like that.  Essentially, we'd need the SP equivalent of Tommy La Stella or Brian Goodwin.  Or we'd have to have a lot of other good stuff happen in order to get above 90 wins.  

ie, they'd be selling hope again.  

What could happen is a could slightly more expensive short term players on top of Cole than those listed.  But after running the numbers on what would happen if we added two other guys in the 3-5 year range on top of Cole, I just don't see it happening.  

I still think what's being sold behind the scenes is that after 2020 or maybe 2021, guys like Canning, Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, Fletcher, Sandoval, Suarez, Thaiss, Barria etc plus whoever else is in the pipeline will become significant or major contributors by then and the key is still bridging a gap to that outside of having Cole and Trout as your centerpieces.  

So some short term payroll bumps but not excessive.  Sorry to disappoint.  

Salazar is a guy I was thinking of as being in the "hey, why not" file. If we can get him cheap, and he flops/can't stay healthy, no big deal. If he comes here and contributes, whether it be from the rotation or the bullpen, then it's a steal. 

[Mark68]

16 minutes ago, Lou said:

Wade Miley in second half of 2019 = 5.07 ERA (15 games)

In September, Miley allowed 21 runs over 11.1 ip for a 16.68 ERA.

Miley had a 3.06 ERA after his August 30th start. Maybe he ran out of gas?

[Second Base]

I also think a prediction like this largely fails to take into account factors that mostly Angels fans only know about.

1. Eppler is in a prove it year. 

2. With a new manager and staff, this team is going to be aggressive.

3. Arte specifically said he's going to increase payroll, but non Angel fans won't take into account that managerial changed were largely driven by the owner, and the owner allowing a payroll increased AND not extending Eppler all suggests Arte is going to be aggressive.

Gerrit Cole is aggressive. Wade Miley and Jason Castro are not. That off-season would lead to either a major trade made in desperation, or a GM losing his job.

I just don't think it's an accurate reelection of the disposition of the owner or some front office.

[ukyah]

18 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Nooooooo on Miley. Wasn't even good enough to be on playoff roster. 

wade miley was excellent for the brewers in the regular season during the stretch run and the playoffs in 2018. i picked up an interesting piece of information on the fangraphs link, this year on august 10th he had an era of 2.99 before not posting another quality start. i think he may be undervalued.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Getting Cole would be great but not if it means the second pitcher they bring in his someone like Miley.  Like a few others said I'd rather have Wheeler, someone like Ryu/Madbum and a Miley type if the predicted years and dollars are anywhere close to being what happens.  

[TheUPSman]

If that's the case then it's just a pure cop out on Epplers part. We'd only really be pushing the payroll till Cozart and Pujols contracts come off the books, so go get the arms now.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 11/5/2019 at 7:00 AM, DCAngelsFan said:

And just a reminder how that worked out - he signed an 8-year, $121m contract to start the 2001 season, he missed two years to injury, put up 2.9 bWar over those 8 years, and the Rockies cut him his last check a year ago for his deferred payments.      

I really want Cole - who doesn't?  But that contract amount would be a huge gamble.  If he's the only significant pitcher we can afford, and he's injured or fails to perform?  We'll be in purgatory for years (more.)  

There's no guarantees in baseball, with this exception if the Angels fail to sign at least 2 top pitchers they miss the playoffs again. Cole and Wheeler works for me.

[19HALO71]

I wasn't able to read the whole thread. But I notice that Wheeler is being mentioned as a possible starting pitching option. Just want to remind everyone that Wheeler was extended a QO. Not sure I would want to extend the draft compensation for anyone other than Cole.

Go Halos!!!

[Jeff Fletcher]

If the Angels are going to be better next year, it’s going to be a lot because....

-Ohtani returned and pitched to expectations

-Canning developed into the No 2-4 that he projected to be 

-Heaney pitched like 2018.

-One of Sandoval, Barría, Suarez, Peña proves to be at least a capable No 5 (4.40 ERA, 100+ IP)
 

The point is that you can’t expect all of your improvement to be based on players you acquire. It’s just not realistic to add 20 wins externally. If you add 10, that’s a huge winter. So, your hopes for next year need to bear in mind that the Angels are planning on internal improvement too. 

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If the Angels are going to be better next year, it’s going to be a lot because....

-Ohtani returned and pitched to expectations

-Canning developed into the No 2-4 that he projected to be 

-Heaney pitched like 2018.

-One of Sandoval, Barría, Suarez, Peña proves to be at least a capable No 5 (4.40 ERA, 100+ IP)
 

The point is that you can’t expect all of your improvement to be based on players you acquire. It’s just not realistic to add 20 wins externally. If you add 10, that’s a huge winter. So, your hopes for next year need to bear in mind that the Angels are planning on internal improvement too. 

I think most fans see the same. If Upton and Simmons are healthy, that really helps the offense and adds a few wins alone. 

Some of the younger guys like Rengifo, Thaiss, and Adell preforming well certainly would help too.

The team is banking big on Ohtani and I feel the same. The difference he can make on the mound can transform a game. Getting a better, or more developed performance from Canning would be huge.

Those are the primary additions, along with Trout staying healthy a month longer than he did this year. But externally is where they will look to make the difference. I mean that's great if Barria and Sandoval both settle in as #4/5 starters, but if this team is able to land something like Cole and Ryu, changes an organizational outlook entirely.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

6 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think most fans see the same. If Upton and Simmons are healthy, that really helps the offense and adds a few wins alone. 

Some of the younger guys like Rengifo, 1.Thaiss, and Adell preforming well certainly would help too.

The team is banking big on 2.Ohtani and I feel the same. The difference he can make on the mound can transform a game. Getting a better, or more developed performance from Canning would be huge.

Those are the primary additions, along with Trout staying healthy a month longer than he did this year. But externally is where they will look to make the difference. I mean that's great if Barria and Sandoval both settle in as #4/5 starters, but if this team is able to land something like Cole and 3.Ryu, changes an organizational outlook entirely.

1. Thaiss just doesn't do it for me i don't see anyway he is more than a meh injury replacement.

 

2. Ohtani, I just hate depending on someone who is coming back from TJ and may need 10-15 starts to get a consistent groove back and feel for his off-speed stuff. is the 

 

3. Ryu, if the money is even close to the same. I take MadBum as he seems like he will age better. Ryu has already had a TJ injury and other assorted maladies. 

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

1. Thaiss just doesn't do it for me i don't see anyway he is more than a meh injury replacement.

 

2. Ohtani, I just hate depending on someone who is coming back from TJ and may need 10-15 starts to get a consistent groove back and feel for his off-speed stuff. is the 

 

3. Ryu, if the money is even close to the same. I take MadBum as he seems like he will age better. Ryu has already had a TJ injury and other assorted maladies. 

1. Thaiss was exactly what you described, in 2019, at age 24. It's a lot more likely that Thaiss isn't developing. In fact, everything about his minor league development path suggests you're wrong about him. We'll see.

2. Ohtani had no problems with higher work loads in Japan, and the TJ surgery was his first major pricing injury, and he's only 25 years old. Pretty much everything about this scenario suggests that Ohtani should have little issue going 25+ starts and 150 innings. 

3. Bumgarner? You mean that guy whose velocity has plummeted, and whose peripheral numbers suggests he's more of a back end starter rather than a mid rotation starter? You want him over the guy whose ERA  for the last year and a half is well under 3.00? That's crazy talk. I mean if you want innings and an ERA around 4.00, just sign Julio Teharan for cheap. Ryu offers upside that Bumgarner no longer has.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

1. Thaiss was exactly what you described, in 2019, at age 24. It's a lot more likely that Thaiss isn't developing. In fact, everything about his minor league development path suggests you're wrong about him. We'll see.

2. Ohtani had no problems with higher work loads in Japan, and the TJ surgery was his first major pricing injury, and he's only 25 years old. Pretty much everything about this scenario suggests that Ohtani should have little issue going 25+ starts and 150 innings. 

3. Bumgarner? You mean that guy whose velocity has plummeted, and whose peripheral numbers suggests he's more of a back end starter rather than a mid rotation starter? You want him over the guy whose ERA  for the last year and a half is well under 3.00? That's crazy talk. I mean if you want innings and an ERA around 4.00, just sign Julio Teharan for cheap. Ryu offers upside that Bumgarner no longer has.

Ryu, has never won more than 14 games. Hes never pitched more than 29 starts and he has never thrown over 200 innings.(rookie year 192 last 182). Also, he will be hitting age 33. He throws the Dodgers slider that wrecks havoc on elbows! And missed a lot of time with an arm issue after the all star break.

 

MadBum, 30 in 2020, still threw 200+ (207 inng) 203 k's, 34 starts whip of still 1.12 which was his career norm. ERA of 3.90 BAA .245... Giants couldnt score runs last year! 9-9 record. Had a better 2nd half last year 3.75 vs 4.03.

He will cost 15-20M compared to Ryu of 20-25M.

I would rather have him as a #3.

You wont pitch MadBum and Heaney back to back they are very similar.

1. Cole/Stras

2. Ohtani

3. MadBum 

4. Teheran/Pineda/Gibson

5. Heaney

6. Canning

 

Bullpen addition....Betances

 

Also, I'm not, Thaiss isnt good. AAAA player.

[Pancake Bear]

No to expensive bullpen additions. They tend to be the most likely deals to go bad and waste money (that we can’t spare).

Ryu v. Madbum is an interesting discussion, but the reality is that any SP you look at has risks. Each of them have concerns you can point to. That’s why they aren’t making 30+m per year. (Bumgarner’s ERA last year was basically equal to Miley’s, fwiw, albeit with more innings).

 

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

Ryu, has never won more than 14 games. Hes never pitched more than 29 starts and he has never thrown over 200 innings.(rookie year 192 last 182). Also, he will be hitting age 33. He throws the Dodgers slider that wrecks havoc on elbows! And missed a lot of time with an arm issue after the all star break.

 

MadBum, 30 in 2020, still threw 200+ (207 inng) 203 k's, 34 starts whip of still 1.12 which was his career norm. ERA of 3.90 BAA .245... Giants couldnt score runs last year! 9-9 record. Had a better 2nd half last year 3.75 vs 4.03.

He will cost 15-20M compared to Ryu of 20-25M.

I would rather have him as a #3.

You wont pitch MadBum and Heaney back to back they are very similar.

1. Cole/Stras

2. Ohtani

3. MadBum 

4. Teheran/Pineda/Gibson

5. Heaney

6. Canning

 

Bullpen addition....Betances

 

Also, I'm not, Thaiss isnt good. AAAA player.

We agree on Betances. 

You're using wins as a justification to spend on Bumgarner over Ryu, when everything else points to Ryu being the superior pitcher. Again, if it's innings you're looking for, just go get Teheran. He'll probably match Bumgarner's value at a fraction of the price.

The front office, scouts, coordinators, coaches etc.. all believe that Thaiss has a reasonable chance of turning into an everyday 3B/1B. What knowledge do you have that they don't? Do you think it might be a little early to write him off, after his very first taste of the majors at age 24? He's made the adjustments at every level, but this will be the level he won't be able to adjust to?  His power is finally there, the plate discipline is certainly there and he's turned a quality defensive 3B and 1B. I'd give it a couple more seasons before making any sort of final declaration on his abilities.

[Jeff Fletcher]

6 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

No to expensive bullpen additions. They tend to be the most likely deals to go bad and waste money (that we can’t spare).

Ryu v. Madbum is an interesting discussion, but the reality is that any SP you look at has risks. Each of them have concerns you can point to. That’s why they aren’t making 30+m per year. (Bumgarner’s ERA last year was basically equal to Miley’s, fwiw, albeit with more innings).

 

I’d be pretty surprised if Ryu doesn’t just stay with the Dodgers. 

[Second Base]

20 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I’d be pretty surprised if Ryu doesn’t just stay with the Dodgers. 

Same here, but it's a season of hope. Arte says he's going to spend money, Eppler isn't shy about the need for pitching, we've built what appears to be an incredible coaching staff. If the Angels offered more money and Ryu wanted to stay local, they could quickly become a favorable alternative.

[Jeff Fletcher]

27 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Same here, but it's a season of hope. Arte says he's going to spend money, Eppler isn't shy about the need for pitching, we've built what appears to be an incredible coaching staff. If the Angels offered more money and Ryu wanted to stay local, they could quickly become a favorable alternative.

I assume that Ryu’s comfort level with the Dodgers is about the Dodgers: the people, the way they do things, the facilities. It’s not about being in Southern California. 
 

I have no inside info here, based on him taking the QO last year, then having a really good year, I suspect he’s not looking for a change. 
 

We’ll see. 

[LAA Road Tripper]

To me, there are scenarios and windows when you need to overpay. I felt that way about Adrian Beltre a few years back and I think the same thing applies to Cole now. I'm sure that's how the Angels viewed Pujols. It was discussed here ad nauseam that a 10 year deal was too long but if you got vintage Albert for the first five, then it was worth it. And it would have been but that didn't happen. 

Cole may not end up here but given the circumstances I'd be disappointed and frankly surprised if the Angels are outbid by some other team. 

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I’d be pretty surprised if Ryu doesn’t just stay with the Dodgers. 

Agree. He’s probably the least likely FA to actually change teams. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

6 hours ago, Second Base said:

We agree on Betances. 

You're using wins as a justification to spend on Bumgarner over Ryu, when everything else points to Ryu being the superior pitcher. Again, if it's innings you're looking for, just go get Teheran. He'll probably match Bumgarner's value at a fraction of the price.

The front office, scouts, coordinators, coaches etc.. all believe that Thaiss has a reasonable chance of turning into an everyday 3B/1B. What knowledge do you have that they don't? Do you think it might be a little early to write him off, after his very first taste of the majors at age 24? He's made the adjustments at every level, but this will be the level he won't be able to adjust to?  His power is finally there, the plate discipline is certainly there and he's turned a quality defensive 3B and 1B. I'd give it a couple more seasons before making any sort of final declaration on his abilities.

I'm using everything But, Wins regarding the MadBum vs Ryu... 9-9 vs 14 wins? Where do you even see that?

MadBum threw more innings, had more ks had a 3.75 2nd half era, .28% lower than the 1st half. He was a bit of a hard luck starter as Giants didnt score much last year! Also, he threw well against the A's in 2 starts 1 in Oakland and 1 in SF 12 innings 2 runs!

Ryu spent time on the DL again with elbow/shoulder issues in the 2nd half. I just dont see him being a 30+ start 200inning guy. He's never done it before. Hes come close. He always needs time away for rest starts!