totdprods

MLBTradeRumors FA Predictions // Cole, Miley, and Castro

Recommended Posts

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

  • 1. Gerrit Cole - 8/$256m
  • 24. Wade Miley - 2/$16m
  • 34. Jason Castro - 2/$10m

This actually seems pretty realistic, though a bit underwhelming. Might need to swing a trade or round out the pen and bench with some solid low-dollar signs to really make the offseason feel like a win if those were the three we landed.

They have Wheeler at 5/$100m to Philly and Grandal to Cincy for 4/$68m. I'd pass on both for those amounts. Ryu at 3/$55m for Bowden at 3/$54m for MLBTR has me a little interested though. 

Edited by totdprods

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll tell you this right now, if the Angels offseason consists of an EIGHT year deal for Gerrit Cole, plus a pitcher that couldn't crack a playoff roster, and another glove first catcher....then I'll be on the FIRE EPPLER TRAIN. 

I'm expecting a heck of a lot more from this offseason.  Meaning either Cole and another top starter, or three non-Cole top starters. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As good as Cole is, the rotation has too many holes to plug.  I'd rather split that 8/256 to Wheeler and Mad Bum.  You don't put all your eggs in one basket as good as he is especially with all the extra innings he pitched this season and you don't commit as much money for as long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Lou said:

who did they have us signing last year?

JA Happ, Joe Kelly, Daniel Murphy, and CC Sabathia.

They were pretty terrible with their predictions last year, to be honest. Their predictions this year look MUCH more realistic.

Edited by totdprods

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, totdprods said:

JA Happ, Joe Kelly, Daniel Murphy, and CC Sabathia.

They were pretty terrible with their predictions last year, to be honest. Their predictions this year look MUCH more realistic.

But their predictions for dollars wasn’t too bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is completely realistic except I think Cole gets 7 years.  Other than that I can see this exact scenario playing out.  

It's 45m without back loading and would put the team around 190m in payroll.  

I am certainly hoping for more than that, but I am not expecting more. 

This would make the team a lot better.  90 wins?  probably not.  85 wins or so?  probably.  

To get above that with this haul, there would have to be that magical mystery piece/player who we collect off the scrap heap and they turn into the next Morton or Arrieta.  Like a Danny Salazar or something like that.  Essentially, we'd need the SP equivalent of Tommy La Stella or Brian Goodwin.  Or we'd have to have a lot of other good stuff happen in order to get above 90 wins.  

ie, they'd be selling hope again.  

What could happen is a could slightly more expensive short term players on top of Cole than those listed.  But after running the numbers on what would happen if we added two other guys in the 3-5 year range on top of Cole, I just don't see it happening.  

I still think what's being sold behind the scenes is that after 2020 or maybe 2021, guys like Canning, Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, Fletcher, Sandoval, Suarez, Thaiss, Barria etc plus whoever else is in the pipeline will become significant or major contributors by then and the key is still bridging a gap to that outside of having Cole and Trout as your centerpieces.  

So some short term payroll bumps but not excessive.  Sorry to disappoint.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I still think what's being sold behind the scenes is that after 2020 or maybe 2021, guys like Canning, Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, Fletcher, Sandoval, Suarez, Thaiss, Barria etc plus whoever else is in the pipeline will become significant or major contributors by then and the key is still bridging a gap to that outside of having Cole and Trout as your centerpieces.  

This is what I really hope to be true. Don’t go all out spending this winter to try and force things. We’re adding a ton of young talent to the 40-man the next couple offseasons. A lot of it is here now. But we also shouldn’t expect the kids to lead us this year. Canning could have growing pains (or actual pains), Adell might not quite be ready. Thaiss and Rengifo could still be shaky. Come 2021, these guys should be ready to compete. 

Get Cole or another top arm this year, we will need it for the foreseeable future, but I’m cool keeping the other adds light. Over-spending for mid-tier could hurt us.

There’s a whole host of guys on the market again next year we can dig , guys I like as much or more than Wheeler, Odorizzi, Hamels, and Bumgarner.

Edited by totdprods

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If getting Cole means only being able to afford Miley and Castro, then stay away from Cole.  His price is simply too great.

Heck, this team would be better off with Wheeler/Odorizzi/Miley and Grandal than it would with Cole/Miley and Castro.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, aznhockeyguy said:

As good as Cole is, the rotation has too many holes to plug.  I'd rather split that 8/256 to Wheeler and Mad Bum.  You don't put all your eggs in one basket as good as he is especially with all the extra innings he pitched this season and you don't commit as much money for as long.

Cole and Wheeler/Odorizzi and a catcher. Cole is going to be Randy Johnson/Nolan Ryan type pitcher; sign him no matter what. Get a second tier pitcher or 2 to finish of the rotation. We're going to lose a bunch of dead salary over the couple of years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Canning could have growing pains (or actual pains), Adell might not quite be ready. Thaiss and Rengifo could still be shaky. Come 2021, these guys should be ready to compete. 

For the last 2 or 3 years I kept hearing were not quite ready wait for the 2020 season to compete. Guess what times up it's do or die time, especially for Eppler. We need to play in October in 2020. With 3 solid starters we could pull a Nationals type upset next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

Also, odd they don't have the Dodgers signing anyone big.

This is the way Andrew Friedman has operated the Dodgers ever since he took over.  What was the last big contract he has given out?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, totdprods said:

This is what I really hope to be true. Don’t go all out spending this winter to try and force things. We’re adding a ton of young talent to the 40-man the next couple offseasons. A lot of it is here now. But we also shouldn’t expect the kids to lead us this year. Canning could have growing pains (or actual pains), Adell might not quite be ready. Thaiss and Rengifo could still be shaky. Come 2021, these guys should be ready to compete. 

Get Cole or another top arm this year, we will need it for the foreseeable future, but I’m cool keeping the other adds light. Over-spending for mid-tier could hurt us.

There’s a whole host of guys on the market again next year we can dig , guys I like as much or more than Wheeler, Odorizzi, Hamels, and Bumgarner.

Cole is truly the prize, and it’s really rare to see someone like this hit the market.

I agree with what you are saying.  We might just have to be a bit more patient and wait two offseason to entirely rebuild the team into a juggernaut.  This offseason, a lot of great work can be done - signing a true ace, finding a decent SP who can serve as SP3 after Cole/Ohtani, etc.

I do hope we are able to “solve” our catcher issue this offseason, too.  Getting an ace and starting caliber catcher would be really huge.  It may not fix all our problems, but it should at least make us a fringe contender.  This, combined with the organic growth of our young core, should make this a fun team to watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Cole sweepstakes goes into 8 years  and that high of an avg per year I’m okay with pivoting to Wheeler and a couple other starters and then looking at the trade market to fill Catcher and other potential needs. If we added Wheeler, Tehran, and Odorizzi/Bumgarner that’s could be a lot better than Cole and Miley. We need to be smart about this and not back ourselves into a corner... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Perhaps this is an unrealistic expectation, but I will be disappointed if 3/5 or 3/6 of our rotation isn't Ohtani, Cole and Ryu/Wheeler/Odorizzi.

We might have to "settle" for a staggered approach.  For example - this offseason, if we do what MLBTR suggests, we have SP1, SP4, and C covered.  Disappointing, but at least a step in the right direction.

Then, next offseason, when Cozart and Simmons depart (although Simba's departure is not a given, it's a possibility) and we shed ~27mil in payroll, then maybe we re-allocate the money that offseason and sign a SP2/SP3, then fill any other gaps that are necessary.

Not as exciting to split it up, but maybe that's what'll end up happening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, totdprods said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

  • 1. Gerrit Cole - 8/$256m
  • 24. Wade Miley - 2/$16m
  • 34. Jason Castro - 2/$10m

This actually seems pretty realistic, though a bit underwhelming. Might need to swing a trade or round out the pen and bench with some solid low-dollar signs to really make the offseason feel like a win if those were the three we landed.

They have Wheeler at 5/$100m to Philly and Grandal to Cincy for 4/$68m. I'd pass on both for those amounts. Ryu at 3/$55m for Bowden at 3/$54m for MLBTR has me a little interested though. 

They have Cole Calhoun with 1 year deal for 6 million.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.