THE Official 2019-2020 Hot Stove Thread

[Angels_Fan]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Boyd started off 2019 just fine, 2.80 ERA and only 7 HRs allowed in 72 innings, pre June 1.

The BIG problem is June 1 through the end of the season, 5.60 ERA and 32 HRs allowed in only 113 innings.

As the greatest sheriff ever (Buford T. Justice) would say: There's no way.....noooo way, that the Halos should include Adell, Marsh, OR Adams in ANY deal for Boyd.  

Either the Tigers would be selling low (based on assumed potential) or the Angels would be overpaying. Boyd hasn’t done anything to warrant giving up the Angels best prospects. 

[floplag]

51 minutes ago, True Grich said:

Someone needs to sell me on this Boyd thing... the guy gave up 39 freakin' homeruns last year.  The 238 K's are awesome... but those HR's scare the crap out of me.  If the Angels get him - I hope Callaway is as good as many think he is. 

Im with you, i dont see it.
Flashes of greatness and the hope that our pitching coach can fix him would be nice if it didnt cost us 2 of our top 10 guys which many are talking like it will with Marsh+... thats an awful lot to pay on a wing and a prayer. 
Many here are high on him and others like him, Gray for example, and while i get the concept im not sure i am on board with what it will cost to get them over getting guys that are or have been in FA for about the same money. 
At this point that may be moot at the rate everyone not named us are signing people from that list but yeah.

[kevinb]

Dodgers talking to Boston about Betts. 

[Angels_Fan]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im with you, i dont see it.
Flashes of greatness and the hope that our pitching coach can fix him would be nice if it didnt cost us 2 of our top 10 guys which many are talking like it will with Marsh+... thats an awful lot to pay on a wing and a prayer. 
Many here are high on him and others like him, Gray for example, and while i get the concept im not sure i am on board with what it will cost to get them over getting guys that are or have been in FA for about the same money. 
At this point that may be moot at the rate everyone not named us are signing people from that list but yeah.

Can’t really compare Gray with Boyd. Gray actually has the results (while pitching in a brutal environment like Coors half the time).

[totdprods]

You guys are fixating way too much on the wrong numbers, IMO. 

HRs can be flukey. A K9 increase of 3, to above 11 at the age of 28, a K rate he maintained all season, is pretty hard to be a fluke. It’s pretty apparent something clicked for him and at his age, there’s a chance he might trend upwards more than trend downwards.

His K/9 was 1.9. Gerrit Cole? 1.2. Cy Young Verlander’s was 1.5.

Obviously, those two pitchers are a whole different wavelength than Boyd, but the point I’m making about the data is that it’s not nearly as heinous as it seems and that there’s a very real chance that 2-3 of those HR are a result of him being left in too long by a Detroit team with no pen, or being allowed because he was pitching for a 100+ loss team in September and wasn’t being quite as careful. Knock 4-5 HR allowed in those circumstances and there’s nothing dramatically alarming about his HR rate. Probably wouldn’t even be much of a discussion point. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by totdprods

[angelsnationtalk]

13 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im with you, i dont see it.
Flashes of greatness and the hope that our pitching coach can fix him would be nice if it didnt cost us 2 of our top 10 guys which many are talking like it will with Marsh+... thats an awful lot to pay on a wing and a prayer. 
Many here are high on him and others like him, Gray for example, and while i get the concept im not sure i am on board with what it will cost to get them over getting guys that are or have been in FA for about the same money. 
At this point that may be moot at the rate everyone not named us are signing people from that list but yeah.

That's why maybe he's a buy-low guy. As long as Marsh isn't involved. 

[Angels_Fan]

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

You guys are fixating way too much on the wrong numbers, IMO. 

HRs can be flukey. A K9 increase of 3, to above 11 at the age of 28, a K rate he maintained all season, is pretty hard to be a fluke. It’s pretty apparent something clicked for him and at his age, there’s a chance he might trend upwards more than trend downwards.

His K/9 was 1.9. Gerrit Cole? 1.2. Cy Young Verlander’s was 1.5.

Obviously, those two pitchers are a whole different wavelength than Boyd, but the point I’m making about the data is that it’s not nearly as heinous as it seems and that there’s a very real chance that 2-3 of those HR are a result of him being left in too long by a Detroit team with no pen, or being allowed because he was pitching for a 100+ loss team in September and wasn’t being quite as careful. Knock 4-5 HR allowed in those circumstances and there’s nothing dramatically alarming about his HR rate. Probably wouldn’t even be much of a discussion point. 

So one should just blindly hope that he’ll stop giving up lots of HRs and put it all together? Archer is another guy who has a lot of potential but seemed to underperform these last few years for various reasons. 

[T.G.]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

You guys are fixating way too much on the wrong numbers, IMO. 

HRs can be flukey. A K9 increase of 3, to above 11 at the age of 28, a K rate he maintained all season, is pretty hard to be a fluke. It’s pretty apparent something clicked for him and at his age, there’s a chance he might trend upwards more than trend downwards.

His K/9 was 1.9. Gerrit Cole? 1.2. Cy Young Verlander’s was 1.5.

Obviously, those two pitchers are a whole different wavelength than Boyd, but the point I’m making about the data is that it’s not nearly as heinous as it seems and that there’s a very real chance that 2-3 of those HR are a result of him being left in too long by a Detroit team with no pen, or being allowed because he was pitching for a 100+ loss team in September and wasn’t being quite as careful. Knock 4-5 HR allowed in those circumstances and there’s nothing dramatically alarming about his HR rate. Probably wouldn’t even be much of a discussion point. 

[angelsnationtalk]

12 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Dodgers talking to Boston about Betts. 

Says who?

[failos]

Just now, angelsnationtalk said:

Says who?

Kevinb

[totdprods]

Digging deeper, Boyd allowed four HR in an 8/31 start against the HR record-breaking Twins. Detroit scores 7 in the 3rd and had an 8-2 lead the first half of the game. Boyd allowed four HR that day, but three solo, one 2-R. With a lead that large, in a last day of August game for a team well on the way to 100 losses, I doubt Boyd was too concerned with how many HR he allowed. Aside from those 4 solo HR, he also struck out 11, and only allowed two hits and one walk. 

He also gave up 4 HR against Seattle, in a pretty miserable start, but it was also August with two teams each at 80 losses already. 

That’s not excusing or dismissing his other second-half HR struggles, but it’s an example of how easy HR can inflate some stats. His improved H, BB, and much improved K rates were consistent all season.

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

That's why maybe he's a buy-low guy. As long as Marsh isn't involved. 

But thats just it, people are talking about him being involved, it raises eyebrows.  If he can be had on a buy low that doesnt cost top 10 guys, great, but that doesnt seem to be the narrative people are willing to pay or at least assume it might cost. 

[floplag]

15 minutes ago, Angels_Fan said:

Can’t really compare Gray with Boyd. Gray actually has the results (while pitching in a brutal environment like Coors half the time).

Which means he would cost even more.  Although im not sure i agree on the results his numbers have not been great recently either home or away.  I get it different approaches thus and so but were still assuming he will do better elsewhere. 

[kevinb]

4 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Says who?

USA Today. 

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Digging deeper, Boyd allowed four HR in an 8/31 start against the HR record-breaking Twins. Detroit scores 7 in the 3rd and had an 8-2 lead the first half of the game. Boyd allowed four HR that day, but three solo, one 2-R. With a lead that large, in a last day of August game for a team well on the way to 100 losses, I doubt Boyd was too concerned with how many HR he allowed. Aside from those 4 solo HR, he also struck out 11, and only allowed two hits and one walk. 

He also gave up 4 HR against Seattle, in a pretty miserable start, but it was also August with two teams each at 80 losses already. 

That’s not excusing or dismissing his other second-half HR struggles, but it’s an example of how easy HR can inflate some stats. His improved H, BB, and much improved K rates were consistent all season.

[Angels_Fan]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Which means he would cost even more.  Although im not sure i agree on the results his numbers have not been great recently either home or away.  I get it different approaches thus and so but were still assuming he will do better elsewhere. 

He’s a good pitcher. He also would’ve by far been the Angels best starter last season.

[kevinb]

1 minute ago, Angels_Fan said:

He’s a good pitcher. He also would’ve by far been the Angels best starter last season.

That’s not saying much 

[Angels_Fan]

Just now, Kevinb said:

That’s not saying much 

Maybe not, but that doesn’t take away the fact that he put up good numbers.

[T.G.]

ok....

Boyd's career 4.92 ERA scares the crap out of me.  He's had 118 starts to figure it out and he hasn't.  But I'm just absolutely, positively sure Callaway can fix him by surgically attaching a new arm to his shoulder.

 

[totdprods]

18 minutes ago, Angels_Fan said:

So one should just blindly hope that he’ll stop giving up lots of HRs and put it all together? Archer is another guy who has a lot of potential but seemed to underperform these last few years for various reasons. 

I don’t see any reason to blindly hope for anything. 

He looks like a guy who should give you 30+ GS, 170-180 IP, 180-200 K, a 4.25 ERA, 30 HR allowed. Basically another Skaggs or Heaney - at worst. If something clicked for him - again, a consistent 3 per 9 K rate indicates something did - than I think there’s a chance he can go a step further, maybe a 3.50-4.00 ERA.

The real concern with him, for me, isn’t the HR, it’d be his hits/walks. His 2019 BB rate continued a trend in the right direction, another good sign as it used to be pretty high. And for someone with a K rate closer to 12, allowing a hit an inning is a little high. Especially with a BB% north of 2. That means a lot of baserunners meaning the HR will hurt more. Allowing 30 HR a year isn’t a big deal if you limit baserunners - see Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.

If he costs you Marsh? Hell no. No reason to make that trade. If he costs you someone like Jones - who is really redundant now with Rendon on board and Adell and Marsh set for future OF - and maybe someone as well-regarded as Suarez, and a lotto ticket, it’s a good trade to consider in the context of other moves, such as signing Keuchel.

Edited December 17, 2019 by totdprods

[Vlad27Trout27]

But that production is not worth Marsh or anyone in our top 10. That is the problem,, the tigers want a grand package for a guy that has only "shown Flashes" instead of being great. 

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, Angels_Fan said:

He’s a good pitcher. He also would’ve by far been the Angels best starter last season.

so would have the guys on FA, thats not a reason to give up too much to make the deal when those options are still there

[Angels_Fan]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I don’t see any reason to blindly hope for anything. 

He looks like a guy who should give you 30+ GS, 170-180 IP, 180-200 K, a 4.25 ERA, 30 HR allowed. Basically another Skaggs or Heaney - at worst. If something clicked for him - again, a consistent 3 per 9 K rate indicates something did - than I think there’s a chance he can go a step further, maybe a 3.50-4.00 ERA.

The real concern with him, for me, isn’t the HR, it’d be his hits/walks. His 2019 BB rate continued a trend in the right direction, another good sign as it used to be pretty high. And for someone with a K rate closer to 12, allowing a hit an inning is a little high. Especially with a BB% north of 2. That means a lot of baserunners meaning the HR will hurt more. Allowing 30 HR a year isn’t a big deal if you limit baserunners - see Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.

If he costs you Marsh? Hell no. No reason to make that trade. If he costs you someone like Jones - who is really redundant now with Rendon on board and Adell and Marsh set for future OF - and maybe someone as well-regarded as Suarez, and a lotto ticket, it’s a good trade to consider in the context of other moves.

Well, you said it. The Angels shouldn’t overpay (Marsh +) and should look to trade Jones and Suarez (which means the Tigers would be selling low, if Boyd’s potential is better than he has shown).

The chances of a deal being reached is probably close to zero. The Tigers would be wise to hold on to him and hope that he reaches his potential. They would likely get way more in return then.

[T.G.]

Just sign Keuchel.

[Angels_Fan]

6 minutes ago, floplag said:

so would have the guys on FA, thats not a reason to give up too much to make the deal when those options are still there

Gray is only projected to earn $5.6 million next season and is under club control for two years. Acquiring Gray could give the Angels a lot of flexibility to keep improving the roster.

Marsh is pretty redundant with Trout, Adell and Upton locked up in the OF for many years. And it isn’t that hard to get an OF once Upton is gone.