Angels and Reds have discussed Castillo trade, remain far apart

[tdawg87]

Just now, John Taylor said:

8-16 with a 3.98 ERA and leading the NL in walks is top 20 in baseball?

He wasn't even the best pitcher on his team last year Tyler Mahle was.

Don't use record and raw ERA as an indicator of how good/bad a pitcher is. 

His ERA+ was 120. That means his ERA was very good with park factors included.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I would prefer we stay with out core of prospects. But thats just me.

What I do like about the potential here is this guy eats innings, and would be safe (like how I prefer stroman).

Moreso, if you could make this trade and then sign scherzer to short term/big money that falls off when ohtani is due to get paid...

Our rotation is suddenly "holy shit". With front end guys and solid depth

[Inside Pitch]

17 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

It's only 2 years of control for Castillo so, the price would be high, but I don't think it's stupid high. 

It's stupid high.

[CanadianHalo]

Ideally Arte just sucks it up and spends money or we’re just going to deplete the farm again.

Bite the bullet spend the money and reset the direction of this organization 

We sign 2 legit starting pitchers and all of a sudden we have some serious prospect depth 

[Dtwncbad]

15 minutes ago, John Taylor said:

8-16 with a 3.98 ERA and leading the NL in walks is top 20 in baseball?

He wasn't even the best pitcher on his team last year Tyler Mahle was.

Using the win/loss record in your argument ends the exchange for me.

Rate him any way you want.  I think most will view him better than you view him.

[Second Base]

I didn't have any insight into negotiations, but I think I remember something along the lines of either Adell or Marsh and one more high end prospect like Jackson or Adams. 

I wouldn't under any circumstance use any pitching prospects in negotiations. It's hard to see right now, but Detmers, Davis, Bachman and Bush will play a major role in 2023 and beyond. 

[Warfarin]

40 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I would say Castillo is safely among the top 20 starters in baseball.

That is not a middle of the rotation starter.  That makes him a #1 for many teams.

If Castillo is your #3 starter, your rotation is epic.

On a staff with Ohtani and Syndergaard, there's actually a chance Castillo would be the #3 SP, which would, indeed, make our rotation epic  

[Warfarin]

29 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I don't know if any of you remember, but a little birdie told @Chuckster70last trade deadline that Angels scouts were on hand for Castillo's start against the Padres. 

At the time, it was believed that the Reds were looking at three Angels position players, Adell, Marsh and Jeremiah Jackson. 

There were negotiations, and the fact that there still are is actually a promising sign. Sometimes, the groundwork for off-season trades is laid during the trade deadline. 

 

Realistically, if the Reds part with Castillo, it's hard to envision them accepting a prospect package that doesn't include a SP of some kind.  Not necessarily a top flight one, but I'd imagine they'd at least want someone who could be a mid-rotation SP down the line.

The Reds do need OFers, so I can see a package around Adell/Adams (I don't think they need SS/3B, so I don't envision Jackson being a desire for them), but I think we'd have to kick in at least someone like Canning, Suarez, Bachman, etc.  Would love if we could just include Barria, but I highly doubt he moves the needle.

[tdawg87]

28 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

It's stupid high.

Indeed it is.

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Realistically, if the Reds part with Castillo, it's hard to envision them accepting a prospect package that doesn't include a SP of some kind.  Not necessarily a top flight one, but I'd imagine they'd at least want someone who could be a mid-rotation SP down the line.

The Reds do need OFers, so I can see a package around Adell/Adams (I don't think they need SS/3B, so I don't envision Jackson being a desire for them), but I think we'd have to kick in at least someone like Canning, Suarez, Bachman, etc.  Would love if we could just include Barria, but I highly doubt he moves the needle.

and @Inside Pitch had already stated their wanting pitching.

I know we want to keep Detmers and Bachman, but we do have a trio of young SP in Canning, Sandoval, and Suarez with promise. Barria could fit here too. We just drafted 20 arms, and in the last full draft, I recall we scooped a bunch of pitching there. Crow, Seminaris, Smith, Daniel, Erla…these guys obviously are a tier, maybe two, below Detmers and Bachman, but there stands reasonable chance at least one or two of them turn into decent MLB SP - or have trade value in a quantity package. Crazier yet, Halos could move say, Adell and Bachman for Castillo, Marsh for Max Meyer, and then go back to stopgap OF hell. Would suck, but easier to find success there than FA SP, plus the rotation could be all kinds of nuts. Perry’s Braves had a lot of luck finding stopgap OF help.

And we have the 2022 draft too. We’re in the same general order and can draft another Bachman/Detmers. Sure, they’ll be a year or two behind on timeline but the talent is back.

Also can’t rule out that this team sucks again for whatever reason and the Angels flip Castillo or Syndergaard at the deadline. Rendon could never recover, Trout or Ohtani get hurt, and this could blow up again even if the new arms are good.

Edited November 28, 2021 by totdprods

[John Taylor]

34 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Don't use record and raw ERA as an indicator of how good/bad a pitcher is. 

His ERA+ was 120. That means his ERA was very good with park factors included.

Fair point. I'm still concerned about how many walks he has allowed, but the K/9 rate is pretty impressive as well. 

This is not the (Ken) hill I'm going to die on, so if he is much better than I realize and we land him for a decent price, I'm in.

[Warfarin]

Just now, totdprods said:

and @Inside Pitch had already stated their wanting pitching.

I know we want to keep Detmers and Bachman, but we do have a trio of young SP in Canning, Sandoval, and Suarez with promise. Barria could fit here too. We just drafted 20 arms, and in the last full draft, I recall we scooped a bunch of pitching there. Crow, Seminaris, Smith, Daniel, Erla…these guys obviously are a tier, maybe two, below Detmers and Bachman, but there stands reasonable chance at least one or two of them turn into decent MLB SP - or have trade value in a quantity package. 

And we have the 2022 draft too. We’re in the same general order and can draft another Bachman/Detmers. Sure, they’ll be a year or two behind on timeline but the talent is back.

Right.  And if our goal is to go for it now, then having a trio of Ohtani, Syndergaard, and Castillo would be almost as dominant as Scherzer, Ohtani, and Syndergaard, but we'd have about 25mil "extra" to spend that wouldn't be going towards Scherzer, which we can use to address both the bullpen and SS.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, John Taylor said:

Fair point. I'm still concerned about how many walks he has allowed, but the K/9 rate is pretty impressive as well. 

This is not the (Ken) hill I'm going to die on, so if he is much better than I realize and we land him for a decent price, I'm in.

I appreciate your input and I don't mean to come off like a dick. 

He does have some control issues for sure. The good news is he keeps the ball in the park. 

Your point is just as valid as mine. I just don't like raw ERA because it doesn't tell the full story. 

[totdprods]

Castillo sort of is in that Zack Wheeler stage where he’s been very good but still has a bit of consistency issues, but could turn a corner and become elite any day. Change of scenery and fresh coaching could do that. 

[John Taylor]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

I appreciate your input and I don't mean to come off like a dick. 

He does have some control issues for sure. The good news is he keeps the ball in the park. 

Your point is just as valid as mine. I just don't like raw ERA because it doesn't tell the full story. 

I actually didn't view your response as dickish at all, in fact it made me reevaluate my perception of him (Which I would assume was your's and @Dtwncbad's point).

I think I get too hung up on legacy stats, lol

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

and @Inside Pitch had already stated their wanting pitching.

I know we want to keep Detmers and Bachman, but we do have a trio of young SP in Canning, Sandoval, and Suarez with promise. Barria could fit here too. We just drafted 20 arms, and in the last full draft, I recall we scooped a bunch of pitching there. Crow, Seminaris, Smith, Daniel, Erla…these guys obviously are a tier, maybe two, below Detmers and Bachman, but there stands reasonable chance at least one or two of them turn into decent MLB SP - or have trade value in a quantity package. Crazier yet, Halos could move say, Adell and Bachman for Castillo, Marsh for Max Meyer, and then go back to stopgap OF hell. Would suck, but easier to find success there than FA SP, plus the rotation could be all kinds of nuts. Perry’s Braves had a lot of luck finding stopgap OF help.

And we have the 2022 draft too. We’re in the same general order and can draft another Bachman/Detmers. Sure, they’ll be a year or two behind on timeline but the talent is back.

Part of the Angels problem in regards to pitching isn't necessarily quantity but quality. The Angels churn out plenty in the mold of Canning, Suarez and Barria. Their biggest issue is they haven't been able to draft, develop or produce anyone near the front of a rotation. 

Guys like Bachman, Detmers and even Sandoval, you don't trade, because with them exists the potential for enormous payout. 

Having a collection of #4-5 starters near the makes doesn't equate a collection of potential TOR starters. 

[tdawg87]

Just now, John Taylor said:

I actually didn't view your response as dickish at all, in fact it made me reevaluate my perception of him (Which I would assume was your's and @Dtwncbad's point).

I think I get too hung up on legacy stats, lol

It happens. It's what pops up when you search for stats. 

Things like ERA+ and OPS+ are "sabermetric" stats but they're a good intro for beginners. 

[khouse]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Why

Whereas Stroman is talented...from reports...he's also/has been a disruptive force on the field/in the Mets clubhouse. Which, IMO, is not the "tone" or "aggressiveness" I think Minasian was talking about nor the type of personality Maddon would endorse either.

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Part of the Angels problem in regards to pitching isn't necessarily quantity but quality. The Angels churn out plenty in the mold of Canning, Suarez and Barria. Their biggest issue is they haven't been able to draft, develop or produce anyone near the front of a rotation. 

Guys like Bachman, Detmers and even Sandoval, you don't trade, because with them exists the potential for enormous payout. 

Having a collection of #4-5 starters near the makes doesn't equate a collection of potential TOR starters. 

No, but it saves you from having to spend $5-12m a year in FA for those, which has been as much our downfall the last five or six years as not having an ace. We’d still have at least one or two of them with Ohtani, a FA, and Castillo for a couple years, and two drafts to replenish.

We couldn’t produce anything internally really, and that left every GM skating on thin ice trying to adjust needs. And as much as you and I and everyone else would like to see a more sustainable path, at some point I think it needs to be considered that this is just how Arte intends the club to be operated. There will always be a part of this team where spending bare minimum - rotation, bullpen, bench, lineup, catcher - is essentially part of the design. 

There will always be a part of the Arte-led Angels GM that’s going to be reactionary, I think. Developing a balanced, sustainable development roadmap doesn’t seem possible when Arte is half-in “win-all” mode. None of that is intended as an indictment or complaint, btw, just a harsh truth of sorts. We haven’t tried the high-priced rotation yet, with all the cards played to address the top of the rotation with 2-3 aces, maybe it’s time to try and that and see what piecemealing the rest looks like.

Edited November 28, 2021 by totdprods

[Torridd]

54 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I don't know if any of you remember, but a little birdie told @Chuckster70last trade deadline that Angels scouts were on hand for Castillo's start against the Padres. 

At the time, it was believed that the Reds were looking at three Angels position players, Adell, Marsh and Jeremiah Jackson. 

There were negotiations, and the fact that there still are is actually a promising sign. Sometimes, the groundwork for off-season trades is laid during the trade deadline. 

 

OK, what would you guys say is a fair deal? I'm not as knowledgeable in these types of things. I wouldn't want to give up both Adell and Marsh plus a pitcher for this guy, especially if it's just two years. 

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Torridd said:

OK, what would you guys say is a fair deal? I'm not as knowledgeable in these types of things. I wouldn't want to give up both Adell and Marsh plus a pitcher for this guy, especially if it's just two years. 

Evidently they want arms. 

Adell, Bachman, Suarez. Walk away if that's not enough.

[Torridd]

7 minutes ago, khouse said:

Whereas Stroman is talented...from reports...he's also/has been a disruptive force on the field/in the Mets clubhouse. Which, IMO, is not the "tone" or "aggressiveness" I think Minasian was talking about nor the type of personality Maddon would endorse either.

"Disruptive force"? This is the first I'm hearing about this.

[khouse]

1 minute ago, Torridd said:

"Disruptive force"? This i sthe first I'm hearing about this.

In reading some of what the Met's fans have said...it's likely due to the fact he sat out the 2020 season but who really knows...

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, Torridd said:

OK, what would you guys say is a fair deal? I'm not as knowledgeable in these types of things. I wouldn't want to give up both Adell and Marsh plus a pitcher for this guy, especially if it's just two years. 

Pretty risky for the Halos to give up two MLB-ready offensive trade chips and only get two guaranteed seasons of an arm, given that we will still need to count on cheap MLB production in the near-future.

I mentioned this… somewhere?…but maybe Adell, Bachman, SS, and a low-level prospect for Castillo. Or even Suarez, Barria, or Canning if it saves you a prospect. There’s a little redundancy in back of rotation arms here.

Then go pull off that Marsh for Max Meyer deal. 

Now sign an OF. Suzuki? Bryant? Stopgaps like Soler, Joc, Pham, or Rosario?

We’re gambling on bats again but added some high octane pitching to the org without losing any really, as Bachman is essentially replaced by Meyer. Keeps payroll very fluid for pursuit of the offensive help you’ll need next couple of years without Adell or Marsh, but bats tend to be cheaper and easier to find than pitching. Bank on Trout, Rendon, Walsh, and Ohtani to anchor the offense in that time.

Edited November 28, 2021 by totdprods

[totdprods]

Just now, khouse said:

In reading some of what the Met's fans have said...it's likely due to the fact he sat out the 2020 season but who really knows...

That’s dumb as fuck if true. I doubt it is. I haven’t heard or seen anything about Stroman having any clubhouse baggage.