Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[tdawg87]

I'm gonna throw this wrench into the conversation and then leave:

Mike Trout.

[Lou]

14 hours ago, mmc said:

 

Shocking news. 

[Dtwncbad]

10 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Re: Marsh, to @Dochalo and @Dtwncbad.

Brandon is the type of player that, even if he doesn't improve his in-game power, is going to be really good, because he's just an all around good player, average or better at every aspect of the game. In fact, I think we see see his low, medium, and high potential outcomes over the next three years:

2022 (low): .270/.350/.400, 10 HR, 3-4 WAR

2023 (medium): .280/.360/.430, 15 HR, 4-5 WAR

2024 (high): .290/.370/.480, 20 HR, 5-6 WAR

Or something like that. Add in 40+ XBH as he hits a ton of line-drives and has legs. I don't see him being a 30 HR guy, but he should be able to hit 20-25 for a few years. But again, even if he sticks around 15, he's going to hit for a solid average, hit a bunch of doubles and triples, take walks, steal bases, and play great defense.

I see a bit of Shane Victorino, Lenny Dykstra, and Grady Sizemore. Absolute best-case scenario is something approaching peak Sizemore, but even just a solid Dykstran or Victorino-esque career would be really nice. Victorino was an average to good regular for eight straight years, with several borderline star seasons thrown in the mix. Dykstra was the same for nine years, but had one MVP caliber season (9 WAR in 1990) and another one approaching that level (6.8 WAR).

Any team would love to have him. Marsh was a 60 FV (according to Fangraphs) earlier this year and given that he showcased his potential in games--even if the numbers didn't reflect it--I think he's equivalent to a 65 FV prospect. I don't think there's a single prospect in baseball that a team wouldn't consider trading for him, with the possible exception of Baltimore's Adley Rutschman. According to Fangraphs, AR is a 70 FV and everyone else is 60 FV or lower.

Thanks for this response.  You took the time to actually project some numbers.  I would be thrilled if Marsh hits your “medium” number of 4-5 WAR.

Personally I think that is really optimistic considering how many players actually produce 4-5 WAR.

Just for fun, I would say my projections for him would be like your medium is my high.  Something like that.

I feel like I have to keep repeating that I am a fan of Marsh and I am pulling for him to be great.  Just being honest about my level of optimism that he will be as great as everyone else seems to be so sure about.

I want I see it on the field.

[Junkballer]

12 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Not sure when Ken Rosenthal talked about the Angels being especially interested in Stroman, Syndergaard or Alex Wood. But any news is cool.

 

I'd like to see Minasian be aggressive with getting a 2nd tier starter right off the bat (Gray?), if possible, while he is waiting for the CBA shenangigans to play out.  Last thing they need is to be making desperation moves as the season looms.

[Angels 1961]

Verlander short deal 2 years and Stroman on 5 year deal and resign Raisel

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

 

I'd like to see Minasian be aggressive with getting a 2nd tier starter right off the bat (Gray?), if possible, while he is waiting for the CBA shenangigans to play out.  Last thing they need is to be making desperation moves as the season looms.

The Braves had a history of addressing at least one need really quickly when he was there, and I'd say both he and Eppler have done a similar early 'necessity' move each of the last few offseasons. 

I imagine we get a reliever/borderline closer, a shortstop, or a secondary SP within the next couple of weeks.

[angelsnationtalk]

-Asked about the Angels' 2022 payroll, Minasian didn't give a number. He did say: "I wouldn't rule us out of anything."

-Mike Trout is running, working out and doing other normal offseason activities. Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval and Jo Adell are all working out in AZ

— Jack Harris (@Jack_A_Harris) November 9, 2021

"I wouldn't rule us out of anything" to me sounds interesting. Yes, it likely means nothing, but it also could mean the payroll increases this year. From what I recall, I can't remember a recent time where our GMs have said something along those lines. Could mean open words, or could indicate Angels being aggressive for multiple high-end pieces that they could say "fell into our laps".

[Angelsjunky]

41 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Thanks for this response.  You took the time to actually project some numbers.  I would be thrilled if Marsh hits your “medium” number of 4-5 WAR.

Personally I think that is really optimistic considering how many players actually produce 4-5 WAR.

Just for fun, I would say my projections for him would be like your medium is my high.  Something like that.

I feel like I have to keep repeating that I am a fan of Marsh and I am pulling for him to be great.  Just being honest about my level of optimism that he will be as great as everyone else seems to be so sure about.

I want I see it on the field.

Just to clarify, that is "medium" for a peak season. Or to put it another way:

Low projection: Typical season in the 2-3 WAR range, with a few 3-4 WAR peak seasons.

Medium: Typical season in 3-4 WAR range, with a few 4-5 WAR peak seasons.

High: Typical season in the 4-5 WAR range, with a few 5+ WAR seasons sprinkled in.

The thing to remember about Marsh is that he produced 1.0 WAR in 70 games this year, while hitting below average (86 wRC+). That projects to about 2.3 WAR over 150 games. If he hits average (100 wRC+) with the same baserunning and defense, he's in that 3-4 WAR range. If he 110-120, he's at 4-5 WAR, 120-140 and he's a true star, or 5-7 WAR player. I think the chances that he at least becomes a 110 wRC+ hitter are very good, and thus multiple 4+ WAR seasons are a good probability.

But you're right: We need to see it on the field. But I'm just extrapolating from what we've seen on the field, and assuming improvement, which is likely for a 23 year old.

 

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

"I wouldn't rule us out of anything" to me sounds interesting. Yes, it likely means nothing, but it also could mean the payroll increases this year. From what I recall, I can't remember a recent time where our GMs have said something along those lines. Could mean open words, or could indicate Angels being aggressive for multiple high-end pieces that they could say "fell into our laps".

While I think it likely that the Angels stick to around $50M in free agency, I think it possible that they blow that number out of the water and go hard after some premier pieces. Upton's $28M comes off the books after 2022, and other than Trout and Rendon, they have no other big contracts. They'll need to save some money to offer Ohtani a contract, but my point is that Arte may be willing to go over the luxury tax for one year in 2022, and then find a way to offer Ohtani a competitive contract but still stay under.

[totdprods]

Would be a really good offseason for Arte to try and replicate that Colon, Guerrero, Guillen, Escobar winter. Get us two impact arms, two impact bats. Obviously not all top-tier, but glancing at our farm and the MLB talent presently, it really is a good winter to splurge and lock in 3-4 guys to our core for the next several seasons, while the very young talent on the farm starts developing. Would give us a nice window.

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

While I think it likely that the Angels stick to around $50M in free agency, I think it possible that they blow that number out of the water and go hard after some premier pieces. Upton's $28M comes off the books after 2022, and other than Trout and Rendon, they have no other big contracts. They'll need to save some money to offer Ohtani a contract, but my point is that Arte may be willing to go over the luxury tax for one year in 2022, and then find a way to offer Ohtani a competitive contract but still stay under.

The only downside is we say this every year. And I 100% agree with you. A few years back I thought Cole was the guy they'd open up payroll to. Arte has always said he'd push through the tax "If it's the right player, in the right situation, I will do whatever".

Me response to Arte is this--

"If it's the right player": If signing someone like Scherzer or Verlander (after filling other holes) puts you over the tax, then these are the right players.

"In the right situation": Your situation coming up is Trout is now in his 30's and Ohtani will need to be given a reason to want to stay. Need another reason? Look at your dwindling fan attendance. 

Worth $3.6B and now owns developing plans for the platinum triangle which will increase your net worth substantially. 

Either get it done or get out. 

[angelsnationtalk]

Angels met today with the agent for Raisel Iglesias, the rare reliever to receive a qualifying offer ($18.4M). Top pen pitcher on market should have good multiyear options. LAA near-total focus: arms

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 11, 2021

[angelsnationtalk]

The LA Angels have Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard both on their radar per @Ken_Rosenthal

— Pat Ragazzo (@ragazzoreport) November 11, 2021

[Dtwncbad]

7 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Yes they are pitchers.  Yes.

[tdawg87]

The Angels will be in on pitchers.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

I’m sure they have a ton of pitchers on their radar  

but will they be the bride this year? Or remain a bridesmaid?

 

[Junkballer]

8 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

The Angels will be in on pitchers.

The balk calls will be totally worth it.

[Dtwncbad]

11 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

The balk calls will be totally worth it.

Just a slightly less legal delivery than Jordan Walden.

[tdawg87]

17 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

The balk calls will be totally worth it.

I'll be in my dojo.

[Dtwncbad]

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Live look at Tim Tebow still waiting to be called to the pros

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Live look at Tim Tebow still waiting to be called to the pros

You mean live look at every normal person trying to figure out why Colin Kaepernick keeps trying out to be in the NFL when he thinks being in the NFL is slavery.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

While I think it likely that the Angels stick to around $50M in free agency, I think it possible that they blow that number out of the water and go hard after some premier pieces. Upton's $28M comes off the books after 2022, and other than Trout and Rendon, they have no other big contracts. They'll need to save some money to offer Ohtani a contract, but my point is that Arte may be willing to go over the luxury tax for one year in 2022, and then find a way to offer Ohtani a competitive contract but still stay under.

We've all been burned before, but I get this feeling, too. (Its more fun, anyway)

Mainly. Trout isnt getting any younger, the trout window is now suddenly the trout / ohtani window, and finally, the arte window. 

He's not getting any younger either. Id assume he'd like to up the team value before he sells, and its the first time in forever both pujols and hamilton are off the books

[angelsnationtalk]

The #BlueJays have checked with the #Marlins on their starting pitchers; Pablo López and Elieser Hernández are Miami’s most available arms. Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk is likely to be part of talks due to the emergence of Jays catching prospect Gabriel Moreno. @MLBNetwork @FAN590

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 11, 2021

[tdawg87]

Oh fuck give me all of Lopez