Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[angelsnationtalk]

Trade market update: The #Mariners are among the teams to check in with the #Reds on right-hander Luis Castillo. Seattle has one of the industry’s top farm systems, and Jerry Dipoto isn’t shy about making major trades. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 10, 2021

 

Mariners can easily outbid us. 

Edited November 10, 2021 by angelsnationtalk

[angelsnationtalk]

Red Sox have made a multiyear offer to Eduardo Rodriguez in addition to the $18.4M qualifying offer

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 10, 2021

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

 

Mariners can easily outbid us. 

Both the Angels and the Mariners have the prospect capital to make a deal for Castillo.

[ettin]

15 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

So you are high on him.  Great.  I like him a lot but don’t have the level of confidence you have in terms of his ceiling.

This is another moment in time where I would be perfectly happy to be off the Mark.

You were on a guy named Mark?

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

You don’t get it I guess.  There are scouting reports on every player.  We can all see them.  Baseball history says they are often wrong on how players actually turn out.

Do you really think I asked you for his scouting report?  When I used the word “objectively” I was saying let’s keep the discussion unemotional.  The observation of not actually seeing any power from him is not emotional.

Basically I have an opinion and you are telling me I am wrong because of the scouting report.  Wonderful.

Let’s try this again.  In my opinion, an opposing GM will likely prefer to pursue a young player that has already shown the hit for power tool rather than hand away their young controllable arm for a player that projects to develop the skill in their scouting report.

What is thick about that?  Nothing.

Getting annoyed at that and getting uppity that the scouting report says he could develop more power in the future misses the point.

What have you seen in Marsh that assures you the power is there (don’t say the scouting report)?  Anything?  I haven’t seen it.  If the Angels keep him I really really hope he develops some hit for power in his game.

Lastly, people dig up old posts years later for fun.  No, I am not predicting that Marsh will never have power.  He has the frame.  He just has not shown it yet and I believe that probably matters in his trade value today versus another player that has already shown it.

I'm not telling you you're wrong.  I disagree with you opinion.  That's why I called you thick.  You're apparently using a different definition of the word 'objective' which is typically 'not influenced by personal feelings or opinions'.   Not sure how 'objective' means not emotional.  So you were asking me to speak objectively on Marsh's power.  What other potentially objective source outside of my bias would we have besides scouting reports from multiple sources?  

I'm not calling you thick because of your opinion.  

And why do you think I'm annoyed or emotional or not relaxed?  I think maybe you're projecting a bit.  

Back to the topic at hand.  Apparently.  My (now) opinion on Marsh's power.  I have watched him a ton.  I see a fair amount of power potential.  None of that assures me or anyone else of anything any more than what you've seen assures you that he doesn't have the power potential.  Has he shown it yet?  No.  But we weren't talking about current but his ceiling.  I think (and so do others who scout for a living) that he's got a lot more game power in his future. 

Your last paragraph is confusing to me.  You said that based on what you've seen, you don't think he's got power potential which decreases his trade value yet you see that he has the frame and you're now saying that you're not predicting he won't have power.  Which is essentially what you were saying before based on what you've seen.  I agree he hasn't show it yet but again, we were talking about ceiling.  So do you think his ceiling includes power or not?  And if it does then his trade value would include that.  

And btw, if Marsh was actually showing his power in games he'd have been the top prospect in baseball or at least top 5.  It's the only thing missing from what is actually occurring in games vs. his potential.  

My ultimate point is and my opinion is that Marsh has an extremely high ceiling and that it's included in that trade value where he could be the centerpiece for a front line starter.  Isn't that what we were talking about?  It's also my opinion that if you can't get a front line starter for Marsh with at least three years of control then you don't trade him.  And my hope is that we just keep him because even if he doesn't reach his ceiling of having that power, that he'll still be a 3-4 WAR player (like a Marte type) without that due to his other tools.  

[Junkballer]

54 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Both the Angels and the Mariners have the prospect capital to make a deal for Castillo.

Castillo is FA in 2024.  We'd have to deal Marsh (Adell only has a 12.9 score per BTV) and at least a couple of other significant prospects to make up the remaining 20pt differential.  That's a LOT of years to give up for 2 of Castillo.  

[angelsnationtalk]

Steven Matz is expected to be at the GM Meetings on Wednesday to meet with teams. #Bluejays remain interested in a reunion. Keep an eye on the #Tigers. Also #Angels, #RedSox, a few others have interest.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 10, 2021

[tdawg87]

That trade values site is a neat little tool for fans to use, and does have some degree of accuracy, but it shouldn't be used as if the "values" there are the same as the actual values GMs have. 

[angelsnationtalk]

Shohei Ohtani's agent, Nez Balelo, wouldn't comment on potential extension talks with the #Angels. He did say Ohtani is happy with the Angels, and Balelo feels Perry Minasian is committed to building a winning team.

— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) November 10, 2021

[tdawg87]

I googled Nez Balelo and completely lost the "Guess the Race" game.

[HanfordGuy]

18 hours ago, Dochalo said:

You're being a bit thick here. 

[mmc]

 

[Dtwncbad]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

You said that based on what you've seen, you don't think he's got power potential which decreases his trade value yet you see that he has the frame and you're now saying that you're not predicting he won't have power. 

You got this wrong.  I did not say he does not have power potential.  The word is potential.  I said he is a big boy.  That alone would suggest he could have some more power.  The entire point was his power has not been seen yet.  Nobody knows for sure what kind of power he will have because no power has been seen yet.  I am not predicting that he will never have power.  I said his trade value would be higher if he had actually displayed some power versus it being all potential that hasn’t happened yet.

I think it is logical to believe a GM will be more interested in a young player that has already shown real evidence of their tools over a player that has potential to have that tool.

Look, if the Angels trade Marsh I hope to be entirely wrong and that he returns an absolute beast of a pitcher.  The genesis of my comments was simply he has at least some sample of production as a professional at this point showing no power yet, and GMs want as much certainty as they can get in the players they acquire.

I think it is fair for a GM to somewhat have a question mark next to “hit for power” based in real world results so far and you evidently think there is no concern about that because scouts project it.

I understand your position.

 

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, mmc said:

 

[mmc]

 

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, mmc said:

 

So basically Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers politely didn’t answer a question on their budget, but reports that he got an answer from them not answering.

OK Jon. Thanks for the insight.

Edited November 11, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[tdawg87]

Heyman knows just enough more than anyone here to make a career out of it.

[Jason]

10 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

 

Mariners can easily outbid us. 

Everyone out does the Angels in everything. 

[angelsnationtalk]

Angels GM Perry Minasian said he's building for the long-term, while also trying to compete in the short term.

My perspective? Finding long-term success requires being successful in 2022.

Here's the story from the GM meetings, with Minasian's thoughts: https://t.co/lANOXeaRW6 pic.twitter.com/nMVKKynopW

— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) November 11, 2021

Not sure when Ken Rosenthal talked about the Angels being especially interested in Stroman, Syndergaard or Alex Wood. But any news is cool.

[mmc]

 

[Angelsjunky]

 

8 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Shohei Ohtani's agent, Nez Balelo, wouldn't comment on potential extension talks with the #Angels. He did say Ohtani is happy with the Angels, and Balelo feels Perry Minasian, in the grand tradition of Billy Eppler, is committed to building a winning team.

— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) November 10, 2021

Fixed @Jeff Fletcher's quote.

[Angelsjunky]

Re: Marsh, to @Dochalo and @Dtwncbad.

Brandon is the type of player that, even if he doesn't improve his in-game power, is going to be really good, because he's just an all around good player, average or better at every aspect of the game. In fact, I think we see see his low, medium, and high potential outcomes over the next three years:

2022 (low): .270/.350/.400, 10 HR, 3-4 WAR

2023 (medium): .280/.360/.430, 15 HR, 4-5 WAR

2024 (high): .290/.370/.480, 20 HR, 5-6 WAR

Or something like that. Add in 40+ XBH as he hits a ton of line-drives and has legs. I don't see him being a 30 HR guy, but he should be able to hit 20-25 for a few years. But again, even if he sticks around 15, he's going to hit for a solid average, hit a bunch of doubles and triples, take walks, steal bases, and play great defense.

I see a bit of Shane Victorino, Lenny Dykstra, and Grady Sizemore. Absolute best-case scenario is something approaching peak Sizemore, but even just a solid Dykstran or Victorino-esque career would be really nice. Victorino was an average to good regular for eight straight years, with several borderline star seasons thrown in the mix. Dykstra was the same for nine years, but had one MVP caliber season (9 WAR in 1990) and another one approaching that level (6.8 WAR).

Any team would love to have him. Marsh was a 60 FV (according to Fangraphs) earlier this year and given that he showcased his potential in games--even if the numbers didn't reflect it--I think he's equivalent to a 65 FV prospect. I don't think there's a single prospect in baseball that a team wouldn't consider trading for him, with the possible exception of Baltimore's Adley Rutschman. According to Fangraphs, AR is a 70 FV and everyone else is 60 FV or lower.

[Docwaukee]

On 11/8/2021 at 9:34 PM, Dtwncbad said:

Marsh established this season that he can be a big leaguer, that he belongs in the majors.  But based on what he displayed, it also would not be unreasonable to now view him as having a fairly modest ceiling.

I seriously have no idea what you're even arguing at this point.  If you say he has power potential then that's part of his ceiling.  

[Angels 1961]

Angels must keep Marsh and Adell

[Dtwncbad]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I seriously have no idea what you're even arguing at this point.  If you say he has power potential then that's part of his ceiling.  

So if Marsh hits 5 homers next year are you going to be surprised and stay stubborn on this?  How about the next year when he hits 9?

I haven’t seen any actual evidence yet he can hit for power and neither have you.  He is 215 lbs and 6’4”.  That’s all we have at this point.  And isn’t 19.

Those are the facts.  The longer a player goes without showing a skill set that was projected foe him, the more it is reasonable to start to question of that projected skill set is real.

He has less than a year in the majors.  I get that. But it’s not like he showed any power at any other level.

I hope he ends up being the greatest player in baseball, or I hope they get the best pitcher in baseball for him if they trade him.  I am an Angel fan.  Duh.

I am just not going to pretend I see something (Marsh hitting for power) that I don’t see yet just because I want him to be great.