Thoughts on the first nine games & A reminder that we're in the "first third"

[Angelsjunky]

So we're nine games in and, overall, the team has probably performed better than anyone--or at least most--expected. 6-3 = .667 W% = 108-win pace. They won't do that all year, but my pre-season prediction of 91-71 seems at least feasible.

At this point it is really too early to make any clear judgements. Only half of the starters have pitched two games, and the position players are only around 40 PA a piece. So anything I say going forward is with the caveat that "it's early," but there are a few concerns - or, at least, things to watch for. So let's take a look at the team, section by section:

The Starting Rotation

The standouts have been Bundy and Ohtani. Bundy's velocity is up and his command from last year seems to have carried over. The one concern is a penchant for the home run ball: three dingers in two starts isn't a good pace. But...its early. Ohtani's stuff was ridiculous and he should only get better, as long as he's healthy. While it is disappointing that he's already missing a start due to a blister, let us not forget that he's barely pitched in two years. Heaney was awful in his first start, pretty good in his second; meaning, Heaney doing Heaney, and we shouldn't expect anything other than what we've seen over the last few years: a guy with #2-3 talent but #4-5 consistency, and thus overall a #3-4 starter. Cobb looked solid but it has only been one start, but there's a general feeling of optimism that he should at least continue to be solid. Canning was a mixed bag and was done in by two homers, including a three-run bomb to Vlad Jr, but you've got to like his K-BB ratio of 7 to 1. Quintana has been awful. Two starts, but I think there's room for concern. And his replacement, Barria, was just as bad.

The Bullpen

Surprisingly good overall. Raisel has been bad in non-save situations, but looks good otherwise. It is way too early to take bullpen ERAs seriously, but so far it looks pretty encouraging. C-Rod has struggled with control, but the stuff is legit and it is impressive how well he's held up facing major league hitters considering he's never pitched about A+. Slegers seems like the best new acquisition.

Defense 

Hmm. We've seen some shaky play and Iglesias is no Simba, who I'm guessing never made three errors in one game (go ahead, prove me wrong, nerds). Given their respective starts, we might really regret this swap. Stassi had some real brain farts, but overall we might be able to chalk this up to early season nerves. Walsh is still adjusting to 1B, I guess. 

Hitting

Trout is off to one of his best starts. Ohtani looks really good, although I wish he'd take a walk now and then. Walsh continues to be a revelation, as does Stassi. After those four, the lineup hasn't really clicked. Rendon is showing signs of life but Upton is not. Fletch has also started slowly but he'll slap his way to a .290+ BA in short order. Lagares, Suzuki, Iglesias, Pujols and Fowler have all been bad. Rojas seemingly doesn't exist; when do we start calling him 0afer? (He's now hitless in his first 8 at bats).

Concerns

So what are the concerns? Well, overall l like what I see so far and still think this team can win 90 games. I'm a little concerned about the back third of the rotation. Quintana has looked really bad, and I wouldn't be surprised if Barria is finally exposed as a weak-stuff smoke-and-mirrors guy, as evinced by his ERA/FIP career spread; he looks like a guy who should have an ERA around 4.50, not the 3.50 that 2018/20 implies. I think Heaney and Cobb should both be solid. I'm particularly excited about Bundy, Ohtani, and Canning; Bundy seems like he could becoming a bonafide #2; how good will Ohtani be once his command settles? As for Canning, I'm 50-50 on whether he'll wallow in #4ness for another year or if we're about to see a big step forward. If one or both of Quintana and Barria continue to suck, Sandoval is waiting in the wings and I'm far more bullish on his upside than Barria's. Who knows, maybe they consider transitioning C-Rod this year, and Detmers might be available by the second half. So I'm not hugely concerned and think the rotation will be, overall, above average.

As for the bullpen, I think it has the potential to be good, maybe even very good. I like the array of pitchers and think they offer some different looks. Not worried at all and actually far more optimistic than I was a couple weeks ago.

The other concern is some of the platoon situations and bench. I think most of the lineup is good to great: Trout, Rendon, Walsh, Fletcher, Ohtani, Stassi. But I'm not convinced that Upton was discovered the fountain of youth, and RF is probably going to continue to be bad until the Angels give Marsh or Adell--or even Ward--a shot. We all knew Iglesias's 2020 was a short season fluke, but he's looked awful and I'm kind of hoping he conitnues to struggle so that Rengifo eventually gets called up. But he obviously deserves the benefit of the doubt, at least for the next month or two.

TLDR/Short Version

The team has performed really well so far, better than expected, but there are some areas of improvement - the bottom part of the rotation and the latter third or so of the lineup. But nothing that can't be worked out as the season progresses.

I think it behooves us to remember that old Billy Beane saying (I think): you use the first third of the year to see what you have, the next third to get what you need, and the final third to build momentum for the postseason. Or something like that. Right now we're still in the process of seeing what the team needs and, over the next month or so, the questions and concerns above should be clearer, and then adjustments made. Maybe Quintana settles down; maybe Iglesias and Upton start hitting; maybe someone emerges to claim the bulk of RF starts. And so forth.

But again, while there are some concerns, the overall outlook is positive.

[failos]

[WicketMaiden]

Nice appraisal. Not worried about Upton (yet), he has always been streaky and is likely to string a few multi-hit games together once his timing comes back. When it does, this line-up will be nasty (yes I'm sitting here with everything crossed).

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, WicketMaiden said:

Nice appraisal. Not worried about Upton (yet), he has always been streaky and is likely to string a few multi-hit games together once his timing comes back. When it does, this line-up will be nasty (yes I'm sitting here with everything crossed).

I don't really have a lot of high hopes for Upton, but if he can just be serviceable over the course of the season and be something like a 1 fWAR player by season's end, I'll take it.  As good as the rest of our lineup is, I think that'll be more than enough out of him.

[Jay]

Angels SP are giving up too many runs, other than that so far so good.

[WicketMaiden]

18 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I don't really have a lot of high hopes for Upton, but if he can just be serviceable over the course of the season and be something like a 1 fWAR player by season's end, I'll take it.  As good as the rest of our lineup is, I think that'll be more than enough out of him.

Yes I'd be happy with that. With his streaky nature he will likely carry the team to a few wins during the year and if his D holds up that's a nice enough place-holder until Marsh/Adell are ready.

[sammyscioscia]

If Madden continues to bench Walsh I don't feel like we're fielding the best team and thus, leaving more to be desired.  If Pujols must play 1st than Walsh needs to play RF, his bat is too potent to waste so many abs on.  I think most fans have an idea what I'm thinking but I won't say it, I'll just say hopefully AP retires early.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, sammyscioscia said:

If Madden continues to bench Walsh I don't feel like we're fielding the best team and thus, leaving more to be desired.  If Pujols must play 1st than Walsh needs to play RF, his bat is too potent to waste so many abs on.  I think most fans have an idea what I'm thinking but I won't say it, I'll just say hopefully AP retires early.

Most fans realize Albert is going to start 2-3 games a week.  Last night wasn’t on Albert it was on the shit show on the mound.  Walsh could have started, hit three grand slams and we still lose.  

[sammyscioscia]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Most fans realize Albert is going to start 2-3 games a week.  Last night wasn’t on Albert it was on the shit show on the mound.  Walsh could have started, hit three grand slams and we still lose.  

Walsh throws a laser beam to 2nd and we might turn 2 there preventing the melt down inning,  Albert lobbed the ball to 2nd, far from an ideal play from him.  Also Walsh might have given us the momentum we needed in the 1st inning by driving in those stranded runners.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, sammyscioscia said:

Walsh throws a laser beam to 2nd and we might turn 2 there preventing the melt down inning,  Albert lobbed the ball to 2nd, far from an ideal play from him.  Also Walsh might have given us the momentum we needed in the 1st inning by driving in those stranded runners.

The only reason I would somewhat understand benching Walsh for Pujols would be if we faced a lefty, but we didn't.

We did face a lefty yesterday. 

[sammyscioscia]

Yeah, still needs Walsh in the lineup though.

[BTH]

Hopefully Fletcher and Upton can get cooking at some point. Also, it'd help if Pujols and Iglesias did the same.

That way the would either be clicking on all cylinders or allow them to have some fallback if/when guys like Ohtani, Trout, and Walsh cool off for a little bit.

[tdawg87]

AJ loves to hear himself type.

[Angelsjunky]

40 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

AJ loves to hear himself type.

Change your pad, bro.

[Angel Oracle]

Quintana’s peripherals are crazy.

17 baserunners in 5 innings (10 hits, 7 BBs), but only one XBH allowed (double) and NINE Ks 

Edited April 11, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[failos]

4 hours ago, sammyscioscia said:

If Madden continues to bench Walsh I don't feel like we're fielding the best team and thus, leaving more to be desired.  If Pujols must play 1st than Walsh needs to play RF, his bat is too potent to waste so many abs on.  I think most fans have an idea what I'm thinking but I won't say it, I'll just say hopefully AP retires early.

Maddon

Maddon

Maddon

[WicketMaiden]

25 minutes ago, failos said:

Maddon

Maddon

Maddon

Maddening isn't it? 

[Angelsjunky]

43 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Quintana’s peripherals are crazy.

17 baserunners in 5 innings (10 hits, 7 BBs), but only one XBH allowed (double) and NINE Ks 

Probably is small sample size noise. His velo isn't down. The biggest concern is the walks.

[bloodbrother]

22 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Probably is small sample size noise. His velo isn't down. The biggest concern is the walks.

Yep. Always had good BB rates throughout his career so I expected to see far better command/control than what we've gotten so far.

[Second Base]

I think as most of us, and the rest of the world were realizing toward the end of Spring Training, the Angels rotation is actually going to be just fine.

Bundy has developed into that solid #1 or #2 starter they needed. Ohtani will have his bouts of wildness that will get him into trouble, but when he's healthy, and is throwing that splitter of his down in the zone, he's an ace. Cobb is showing that the adjustments he's made will yield actual results, as long as he stays healthy. That, and getting out of Baltimore helps every pitcher. Canning is finding marginal success without the 96 mph velocity. It's great that he can pump it that high for an extended period, but given his frame and delivery, he needs to learn to thrive at 93-94. Heaney is exactly who he's always been. Occasionally an ace, occasionally not worthy of the rotation. Add it all together and you've got a #4/5 starter. Quintana's stuff is still largely the same as it was three years ago. If he can spot his pitches, he's going to be a steady 4/5 starter, if he can't, then he should be replaced by Detmers. 

Flat out, I think Minasian saved the bullpen a day before the season when he landed Cishek and Watson. They'll both be pretty decent, and to have them profiling in middle relief gives the Angels depth. Iglesias will be fine in the 9th. Mayers looks solid in the 8th. Now among the available options, someone will need to step up and take the 7th, and a stopper role. Slegers, Rodriguez, Watson out Cishek will do just fine. 

The offense is good. Fletcher is getting warmed up, Ohtani might be one of the best hitters in all of baseball, Walsh is clearly the answer at 1B, Trout is the best player in baseball, Rendon is top 10, and while the results haven't been there yet, Upton at least looks better than he has in years. We'll see if the results follow. Stassi looks solid. Iglesias' bat speed and contact ability are still there. I can't promise he'll produce, but he'll hit a hot streak soon enough. 

The biggest issues moving forward, are RF, the 7th inning, and the 6th starter. For RF, the best thing they can do is keep Marsh and Adell in AAA this year, and let Taylor Ward keep us afloat. For the 7th inning, Slegers has had some success, and it appears sustainable in the short term given his height, extension and deception. But Rodriguez has the arsenal, and Cishek and Watson have the history of success. For the 6th starter, Quintana has been there, Barria has had extended runs off success, Sandoval has the stuff and Detmers has the upside and future. Whichever direction they go, I think they'll make something work. 

This looks like a good team to me.

 

[Angel Oracle]

Schebler could well provide some surprise, if called up to replace Fowler.

The defense may be a little better, and the LH power could be an asset in a platoon with Lagares (2/3 starts for Schebler).

[Jeff Fletcher]

The 2018 Angels were 10-3.

At this point in 2019 you guys wanted to shoot Tommy La Stella into the sun.

Keynan Middleton looked like an awesome closer in April 2018.

i think people were even convinced Rendon was a bust after 9 games last year.

Mike Mayers looked horrible after 9 games last year.

I don’t remember when but I am fairly certain there was a point when Jefry Marte looked indispensable.

Anyway, I know you guys gotta write something but just remember that it’s not even close to the point you really know anything about anything. 
 

Mike Trout is good though. 

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The 2018 Angels were 10-3.

At this point in 2019 you guys wanted to shoot Tommy La Stella into the sun.

Keynan Middleton looked like an awesome closer in April 2018.

i think people were even convinced Rendon was a bust after 9 games last year.

Mike Mayers looked horrible after 9 games last year.

I don’t remember when but I am fairly certain there was a point when Jefry Marte looked indispensable.

Anyway, I know you guys gotta write something but just remember that it’s not even close to the point you really know anything about anything. 
 

Mike Trout is good though. 

I think I made clear that "its early" is the underlying truth of the matter. I was riffing off the idea that the first third of the season is to figure out what the team has, and that we're in that process. And then, what can we see so far? Anything to look for?

So while I agree that it is ridiculous to make conclusions about anyone so far, we can at least look at possible developments and concerns.

 

[Taylor]

18 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The 2018 Angels were 10-3.

At this point in 2019 you guys wanted to shoot Tommy La Stella into the sun.

Keynan Middleton looked like an awesome closer in April 2018.

i think people were even convinced Rendon was a bust after 9 games last year.

Mike Mayers looked horrible after 9 games last year.

I don’t remember when but I am fairly certain there was a point when Jefry Marte looked indispensable.

Anyway, I know you guys gotta write something but just remember that it’s not even close to the point you really know anything about anything. 
 

Mike Trout is good though. 

[Inside Pitch]

44 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don’t remember when but I am fairly certain there was a point when Jefry Marte looked indispensable.

Marte was no Cesar Puello