Holy Hell, Trevor Bauer!

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Give Bauer 2 million his first year, 8 million his second, then 40 million each in his 3rd and 4th.

I'm a genious.

$1 first year, $1 second, $1 third, $1 fourth, $149,999,996 fifth year

[Jeremiah]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

If we got Bauer, I think that would be about it.  Unless you could convince him to take a significantly lower 1st year salary.  

That's actually one of the minor benefits of adding Bauer or any other multi year free agents is that you've got some flexibility of what you can do with that first or even second year comp.  

I would agree with this. I think 2020 is going to be a year when players aren't going to mess around with shorter deals or lower salaries because there's a lot of payroll uncertainty. Combine that with how MLB has cooled the FA market the past few years, and I think Bauer is going to want his money. I doubt he'll perform to a five-year deal, but that's the going rate in FA. I'd rather the Angels had him than not.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

5 minutes ago, Jeremiah said:

I would agree with this. I think 2020 is going to be a year when players aren't going to mess around with shorter deals or lower salaries because there's a lot of payroll uncertainty. Combine that with how MLB has cooled the FA market the past few years, and I think Bauer is going to want his money. I doubt he'll perform to a five-year deal, but that's the going rate in FA. I'd rather the Angels had him than not.

I think it's why Bauer abandoned the 1 year deal idea he used to have. Maximize guaranteed money in the face of covid uncertainty. Makes sense.

Lower salary in the first year or two won't be an issue IMO

[Jeremiah]

1 minute ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

I think it's why Bauer abandoned the 1 year deal idea he used to have. Maximize guaranteed money in the face of covid uncertainty. Makes sense.

Lower salary in the first year or two won't be an issue IMO

Maybe they can offer him the Bobby Bonilla deal? 

[wopphil]

As much as I hope we sign Bauer, for less total dollars we could probably get Gray, Happ, Pederson, Suzuki, and Rosenthal. And those five would make the team far better than Bauer alone. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

Yes, he pulled Snell, why?  Because they believed in their bullpen because they did all season long, and the season before.  

Bad decision everyone thought so at the time especially Snell. Pulling his pitchers early doesn't mean he had to. So using the argument they didn't go past 5 innings is on the manager and not so much the pitcher. The bullpen gets overworked and then become less reliable, not so much in a short season but a 162 game season even a good BP having to go 4 innings a game will be too taxed.

[Pancake Bear]

4 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Bad decision everyone thought so at the time especially Snell. Pulling his pitchers early doesn't mean he had to. So using the argument they didn't go past 5 innings is on the manager and not so much the pitcher. The bullpen gets overworked and then become less reliable, not so much in a short season but a 162 game season even a good BP having to go 4 innings a game will be too taxed.

It was what he'd been doing all along to great success. People second guess when things go bad. Doesn't mean he was wrong to take out Snell. Certainly at least we can say he had lousy luck with which reliever he put in. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

It was what he'd been doing all along to great success. People second guess when things go bad. Doesn't mean he was wrong to take out Snell. Certainly at least we can say he had lousy luck with which reliever  justhe put in. 

we need an Ace, l hope Maddon doesn't pull our pitchers after 5 just because he can.

Edited December 19, 2020 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[ScottT]

There is apparently a contest going on about who is the best baseball twatter

Sad!

[Pancake Bear]

26 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

we need an Ace, l hope Maddon doesn't pull our pitchers after 5 just because he can.

Snell has consistently been pulled that early. He almost never goes deep into games. That should concern anyone who wants to trade for him. It might be organizational philosophy or it might mean there are serious durability issues. 

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

As much as I hope we sign Bauer, for less total dollars we could probably get Gray, Happ, Pederson, Suzuki, and Rosenthal. And those five would make the team far better than Bauer alone. 

I disagree

Also depends on who we're giving up for Gray

This team needs an ace. Probably needs an ace and a SP like Gray. 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Bad decision everyone thought so at the time especially Snell. Pulling his pitchers early doesn't mean he had to. So using the argument they didn't go past 5 innings is on the manager and not so much the pitcher. The bullpen gets overworked and then become less reliable, not so much in a short season but a 162 game season even a good BP having to go 4 innings a game will be too taxed.

No shit. My point is it’s a team that used their dominant pen to make a championship run. 

[angelsnationtalk]

Based on the fact Maddon said he and Minasian talked about "do we put all the eggs in one basket or do we spread it around" makes me either think one of two things....

1: It's sign Bauer and that's it

2: they really do go for an Odorizzi type guy with another RP and a meh catcher. 

Option 2 fills up holes but are they fixed? Or is it a hole in a pool that you put duct tape over? Basically a redneck saying "Hey y'all, watch this!"

[BTH]

I wonder if a player would rather take a backloaded deal this offseason.

The reason I speculate about that is because there is less certainty that a full season will be played this season than there will be for other seasons.

If you're a player, you'd prefer that a salary of $25 million is prorated rather than a salary of $30 million.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Based on the fact Maddon said he and Minasian talked about "do we put all the eggs in one basket or do we spread it around" makes me either think one of two things....

1: It's sign Bauer and that's it

2: they really do go for an Odorizzi type guy with another RP and a meh catcher. 

Option 2 fills up holes but are they fixed? Or is it a hole in a pool that you put duct tape over? Basically a redneck saying "Hey y'all, watch this!"

This is basically nothing new. I think most of us could've guessed that that was basically what they were thinking. Now it's just made explicit.

Other holes would be filled at a higher level with option one, I assume, but they'd be basically going league minimum on catcher, RF, and maybe another reliever, along with the second starter. Personally, I'm very okay with that.

Option 2 creates a bunch of mediocre. They likely still don't go big on all all the areas, but they have a little more flexibility in 2-3 more areas than in option 1 to get someone a little pricier (think Pederson in RF, Yadi at catcher, Hand at RP - but probably only one, maybe two of those). Pitching would then require hoping a couple of budget options work out. 

Obviously it also depends whether one believes Bauer's upgrades are more flash than substance and repeatable for multiple seasons. I personally buy in on that, so as far as I'm concerned, my vote is still Bauer, and trade for a cost controlled option like Musgrove - screw the cost of it. Then pick up a defense first guy who can cover CF (I'd be okay with bringing Goodwin back, tbh, if he's still cheap), another relatively inexpensive reliever (maybe 3-5m if the money is there), and someone like Castro at catcher. 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

This is basically nothing new. I think most of us could've guessed that that was basically what they were thinking. Now it's just made explicit.

Other holes would be filled at a higher level with option one, I assume, but they'd be basically going league minimum on catcher, RF, and maybe another reliever, along with the second starter. Personally, I'm very okay with that.

Option 2 creates a bunch of mediocre. They likely still don't go big on all all the areas, but they have a little more flexibility in 2-3 more areas than in option 1 to get someone a little pricier (think Pederson in RF, Yadi at catcher, Hand at RP - but probably only one, maybe two of those). Pitching would then require hoping a couple of budget options work out. 

Obviously it also depends whether one believes Bauer's upgrades are more flash than substance and repeatable for multiple seasons. I personally buy in on that, so as far as I'm concerned, my vote is still Bauer, and trade for a cost controlled option like Musgrove - screw the cost of it. Then pick up a defense first guy who can cover CF (I'd be okay with bringing Goodwin back, tbh, if he's still cheap), another relatively inexpensive reliever (maybe 3-5m if the money is there), and someone like Castro at catcher. 

I'd go with the Bauer option as well.  Assuming that the Angels have done their appropriate due diligence and they are confident that Bauer will perform as one of the league's better pitcher for the next 3 years or so.  

I can only think of a couple 100m+ pitching contracts that have been an absolute nightmare.  Jordan Zimmermann comes to mind.  Mike Hampton, Barry Zito, and Kevin Brown were awhile ago now.  Johan Santana was bad mostly because of injury.    

The rest only went bad if they did toward the end.  Like Felix and a few others.  

If you can avoid that 6th and 7th years then I think it's worth the risk.  

We all still have 1yr contract PTSD due to Eppler as well.  It's still a viable way to get a good player without having to add additional risk of those mid market 3-4 year deals on guys that are 31-32 at the start.  

The top guys are gonna get paid and the AAV for the mid market guys is still pretty decent but we're seeing 1-2yr deals so far.  Even before the bigger names set the market.  I think there will be deals to be had at the lower end of the market so I'd rather take the chance on getting a top player and then wait for those deals down the road for C, RF and pen help than settle for spending all your budget on mediocrity.  

[angelsnationtalk]

6 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

This is basically nothing new. I think most of us could've guessed that that was basically what they were thinking. Now it's just made explicit.

Other holes would be filled at a higher level with option one, I assume, but they'd be basically going league minimum on catcher, RF, and maybe another reliever, along with the second starter. Personally, I'm very okay with that.

Option 2 creates a bunch of mediocre. They likely still don't go big on all all the areas, but they have a little more flexibility in 2-3 more areas than in option 1 to get someone a little pricier (think Pederson in RF, Yadi at catcher, Hand at RP - but probably only one, maybe two of those). Pitching would then require hoping a couple of budget options work out. 

Obviously it also depends whether one believes Bauer's upgrades are more flash than substance and repeatable for multiple seasons. I personally buy in on that, so as far as I'm concerned, my vote is still Bauer, and trade for a cost controlled option like Musgrove - screw the cost of it. Then pick up a defense first guy who can cover CF (I'd be okay with bringing Goodwin back, tbh, if he's still cheap), another relatively inexpensive reliever (maybe 3-5m if the money is there), and someone like Castro at catcher. 

It sounds like it's not new but then again your suggestion is more of an option 3 which I believe that's what we've all been talking about. 

Bauer then trade for someone is an option 3 which I prefer as well. 

And to agree with you, yes I'd rather have the Bauer option and not the lower level / multiple guys option.

[eligrba]

11 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

we need an Ace, l hope Maddon doesn't pull our pitchers after 5 just because he can.

Joe will either leave the pitchers in long enough for everyone to complain that he doesn't have a clue when to pull pitchers or pull them too soon for everyone to complain that he doesn't have a clue when to leave pitchers in the game.

This, I am sure.

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Joe will either leave the pitchers in long enough for everyone to complain that he doesn't have a clue when to pull pitchers or pull them too soon for everyone to complain that he doesn't have a clue when to leave pitchers in the game.

This, I am sure.

Yes.  Last year it was pulling pitchers too early.  We will see what next year brings 

[Second Base]

I don't think there's a single owner/team that is going to increase payroll in any significant fashion this winter. And since the Angels manager and front office have been clear on the need for two starters, and a RF, I don't picture one of them being Bauer. Trevor has done an excellent job keeping fans engaged with him on Twitter, but in the end, the Angels need more than just him. Will they have discussions with his representation? Absolutely. But at the end of the day, Bauer decreases the amount they can spend on the second starter.

And looking at what the Angels have on hand should help explain a few things. Bundy and Heaney will likely go 180+ innings, but beyomd them, they'll be short on innings, particularly in 2022 and beyond if Bundy and Heaney leave in FA. If Canning is healthy, he's probably more going to be around 150 or 160 innings. Ohtani will be handled extra carefully, so hopefully 120 innings. The bullpen, revamped as it is would be spent too quickly.

And without being be able to depend on Ohtani, the Angels need top talent in the rotation. The stronger likelihood here is that rather than spending lots of money Minasian will bite the bullet and spend prospects. Likely on Sonny Gray. It won't come together quickly as there will be a lot of interested parties, but I think a deal centered around Jordyn Adams (like Adams, Jackson and Yan) would be sufficient. 

Gray is available, and is probably good for 170 innings, something they'll really need. 

As for the second starter they acquire, assuming Sonny Gray as 10 million in payroll and they have around 20 million left to spend for probably four spots ( SP, RP, C, RF), my guess is they'll go the inexpensive inning-eater route and get Jose Quintana, probably for around 2/20. 

Beyond the two of them, they'll need address RF, and because the acquisition will need to cheap, but solid defensively and moved into a reserve role as soon as one of the kids are ready, I think we'll see Minasian bring in Kevin Pillar. He's a local product, decent clubhouse guy, good defensively and Minasian would be familiar with him from his time spent in Toronto. They'll probably get him on a 1/3 deal. 

Whoever the catcher is, will be in a partner role with Stassi who broke out last year. Someone in that vein of Avila, Suzuki, Wieters, etc... that will only cost around 1/3. 

The remaining reliever they get is a mystery, I mean no one predicted Iglesias and Claudio. But just a guess, it would be someone with late inning experience that they can get for around 4-7 million. Maybe Pedro Baez? 

In short, Bauer would be awesome to have, but spreading that money around between Gray, Quintana, Pillar, Suzuki and Baez (don't get too caught up on the last two) seems like the better team building route.

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I don't think there's a single owner/team that is going to increase payroll in any significant fashion this winter.

This is precisely why Arte and company should try to capitalize on a potentially depressed market.  I highly doubt they will, but the team could end up ahead by spending in a season where nobody else is willing to spend or rather, spend on multiple pieces.

[CanadianHalo]

52 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Bundy and Heaney will likely go 180+ innings

[Warfarin]

48 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

This is precisely why Arte and company should try to capitalize on a potentially depressed market.  I highly doubt they will, but the team could end up ahead by spending in a season where nobody else is willing to spend or rather, spend on multiple pieces.

Right.  In a year when there will be lots of talented FAs who could be had for pennies on the dollar, it would make sense for a team to capitalize on the depressed environment and buy low.

I do think the Mets will spend significantly more than they did previously, but asides from them, I don't think any other ownership group will.

Combine the buyers' market with the fact that a number of teams are actually looking to aggressively unload payroll (i.e., good players can be had for virtually nothing), and I hope Arte sees the value in that, uses any profits he made from his land deal (I imagine there are quite a few), and tries to position the team well.

Note that this doesn't mean spending gobs and gobs of money, but rather, just spending a bit in areas where you can likely get very good talent rather cheaply (RP, corner OF, depth, etc).

[Angels in 2030]

Maybe he meant combined between the two of them 180 innings

[Angels in 2030]

If Angels get Bauer, it'll be heavily backloaded -- maybe $18-22M this year.  The 2nd SP in that scenario would be someone cheap on a trade or a reclamation project ($4-7M range for either).  It'd also mean less for RF and C -- maybe Suzuki and some leftover FA OF for a couple million.  

But i agree, i think Bauer is NOT happening.  I think we get Odorizzi...or a Saguno, Tanaka type.  We then make a trade for a guy -- i'd love Musgrove but Gray (& i'm sure others) are possibilities. This might allow a few extra million to spend on one or more of a RF, C, RP