Active Players You Think are HOF Worthy

[Angelsjunky]

Re: Harper, at face value you'd think a guy with his numbers entering his age 27 season would be a likely Hall of Famer, but we really need to see how he ages. Similarly with Machado. Neither has consistently reached that higher level that makes them surefire Hall of Famers like Trout and Betts, and probably Yelich. Harper's trajectory is rather worrisome - he had his best year at age 22 and hasn't come close since. If 2018-19 represents his peak level, he'll need to do it at least another half decade, and then maintain a decent level for a few more years after.

Still, he's a good bet--just not a sure-thing.

[Stradling]

6 hours ago, stormngt said:

You think he will be healthy enough to play until age 40?

I have no idea if he will be healthy enough.   I said he has ten years left on his contract around the time he turns 30.  With the DH coming to the NL anything is possible. 

[wopphil]

14 hours ago, happybat4 said:

I think Price would need a late career resurgence. Hamels and Lester have a better shot of making it. 

I think Lester has a great shot. Though if there is anyone who is going to get killed by this pandemic, it’s a guy like him (a guy who simply needs to add a few more stat years to his totals).

[happybat4]

12 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

SP: 61.6 (Verlander 60.8, Greinke 59.6, Kershaw 58.8, Scherzer 54.3, Sabathia 50.9, Hamels 48.5, Hudson 48.1, Buehrle 47.4, F Hernandez 44.3, Sale 42.4, Colon 40.7, Lester 39.7, Wainwright 37.4, Price 35.7, deGrom 35.5, Peavy 35.0, Haren 34.1, Lackey 33.2, Bumgarner 33.2, Weaver 32.9, Kluber 32.7, Strasburg 31.5, Zito 31.3, Cueto 29.9)

The first four are likely all already in. I guess you could make an argument against Greinke, but he's basically Mike Mussina with a couple great years sprinkled into otherwise very good seasons, and Mussina eventually got in.

Of the rest, I don't think any of them make it except for perhaps deGrom and Strasburg, but both have to age really well. I would have thought Sale had a good chance a year ago, but his arm is worrying. I kind of see Bumgarner as the Andy Pettittle of his era: maybe the VC will eventually vote both in, but neither are quite Hall caliber.

Sabathia has a chance, I suppose. Hard to say.

RP: 32.6 (Nathan 24.2, Papelbon 21.4, F Rodriguez 20.9, Kimbrel 19.0, Soria 17.2, Chapman 16.5, etc)

Man, who knows. JAWs isn't all that useful here, less so even than SP. I suppose Kimbrel and Chapman both have a chance if they age well.

SUMMARY 

Locks (90%+): Pujols, Cabrera, Ortiz, A-Rod (eventually), Beltre, Trout, Suzuki, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer.

Probably (60%+): Posey, Votto, Cano, Greinke, Yelich, Beltran, Betts.

Maybe (Roughly 50-50, plus or minus): Mauer, Y Molina, Utley, Altuve, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Arenado, Rendon, Stanton, Harper, Machado, Lindor, Sabathia.

Probably Not, but Possible (20-40%): Pedroia, Simmons, Longoria, Donaldson, McCutchen, Kimbrel, Chapman.

Unlikely (<20%): Everyone else, other than young guys not listed yet.

 

 

I don't know how much weight people give it but Greinke is an excellent hitter and baserunner for a pitcher. That gives him about a 5 extra WAR. He also has 6 gold gloves. 

[Tank]

9 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Another thing to consider, about using WAR as the end all of if guys are going to get in or not.

Chuck Finley had 57 WAR... almost the same as Vlad. Fin wss never getting in.

and this is why i have issues with WAR. Finley was decent, not dominant. But Vlad was a game-changer. 

[Tank]

2 hours ago, wopphil said:

I think Lester has a great shot. Though if there is anyone who is going to get killed by this pandemic, it’s a guy like him (a guy who simply needs to add a few more stat years to his totals).

this brings up the issue of a guy who was elite vs. a guy who was steady without being spectacular (a compiler).

there are good arguments on both sides.

[happybat4]

21 minutes ago, Tank said:

and this is why i have issues with WAR. Finley was decent, not dominant. But Vlad was a game-changer. 

Vlad was great, but I think people forget how bad he was defensively and on the base paths. 

[Tank]

16 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

Vlad was great, but I think people forget how bad he was defensively and on the base paths. 

that won't be enough to convince me that chuck finley was an equally productive player compared to him.

[floplag]

Verlander probably, Molina definitely, im on board with.  Some of the others.. idk too many injuries.  Harper, Stanton, Betts still have something to prove to me. 

I dont think he gets in, but I read something the other day about King Felix that i cant find now on twitter i think it was but it was some silly number of quality starts, i think like 122 or something, that the team lost. he went something like 0-42 in those starts, with a sub 3 ERA.   If he played for better teams he would have been a potential first ballot type. 

[happybat4]

19 minutes ago, Tank said:

that won't be enough to convince me that chuck finley was an equally productive player compared to him.

I think Vlad has the lore, his excellent arm, his ability to hit any pitch etc. Finley played on some crappy Angel teams. What stats do you prefer?

Finley was top 10 in ERA 5 times. Vlad was top ten in AVG 7 times.

Finley was top 10 in strike outs 10 ten times. Vlad was top 10 in HR 8 times.

Finley was top 10 in WAR  for pitchers 5 seasons. Vlad was top 10 in WAR for position players 4 seasons.

Finley was top 10 in innings pitches 9 times. Vlad was top 10 in RBI's 8 seasons.

Vlad was great but I think you forget his defense. He led outfielders in errors 9 seasons. He was 3rd and 4th in errors two other seasons. 

Don't get me wrong I think Vlad was terrific. I just think he is a but overrated and Finley was a bit underrated. If Finley was in New York he would have made several more all star teams and received more CY Young votes. It's honestly a joke he was only top ten in CY Young once, and that was 7th place.

[Inside Pitch]

41 minutes ago, Tank said:

that won't be enough to convince me that chuck finley was an equally productive player compared to him.

Finley isnt a HOFer but he was always pretty underrated, he was more consistently above average than great but he stayed at that level for a long time, kind of like a Jimmy Key, Kevin Appier type.   Dude ended up in the top 30 all time for Ks,  career ERA+ was better than Nolan Ryan's, a lot of people tend to be shocked at that one but it's true..  You look at Fin's career and compare it to Catfish Hunter who is a HOFer and it's hard to argue Fin wasn't the better pitcher, he just didn't play on the same caliber teams.

[Inside Pitch]

31 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

I think Vlad has the lore, his excellent arm, his ability to hit any pitch etc. Finley played on some crappy Angel teams. What stats do you prefer?

Finley was top 10 in ERA 5 times. Vlad was top ten in AVG 7 times.

Finley was top 10 in strike outs 10 ten times. Vlad was top 10 in HR 8 times.

Finley was top 10 in WAR  for pitchers 5 seasons. Vlad was top 10 in WAR for position players 4 seasons.

Finley was top 10 in innings pitches 9 times. Vlad was top 10 in RBI's 8 seasons.

Vlad was great but I think you forget his defense. He led outfielders in errors 9 seasons. He was 3rd and 4th in errors two other seasons. 

Don't get me wrong I think Vlad was terrific. I just think he is a but overrated and Finley was a bit underrated. If Finley was in New York he would have made several more all star teams and received more CY Young votes. It's honestly a joke he was only top ten in CY Young once, and that was 7th place.

Bill James wrote a book about HOFers -- one of his arguments was that players who stood out as being unique tended to make strong HOF cases -- Vlad likely fits in there..   He was for most of his prime one of the most exciting players in MLB.   That's where Fin and Vlad are very different.   There have been a ton of Chuck Finley types --Vlads...  not so much.

[Brandon]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Bill James wrote a book about HOFers -- one of his arguments was that players who stood out as being unique tended to make strong HOF cases -- Vlad likely fits in there..   He was for most of his prime one of the most exciting players in MLB.

Yeah, and I'm kind of basing my posts off this and also what I think voters would vote for.

Finely was really underrated, but never got the media pull or blew you away.....just a dude that went out there and did his job very well.

He also had to deal with Tawney Kitaen which should put him over the edge for the hall. I saw in his first year of eligibility he only got .2% of the vote....kind of absurd, really.

[Lou]

4 hours ago, happybat4 said:

I think Vlad has the lore, his excellent arm, his ability to hit any pitch etc. Finley played on some crappy Angel teams. What stats do you prefer?

Finley was top 10 in ERA 5 times. Vlad was top ten in AVG 7 times.

Finley was top 10 in strike outs 10 ten times. Vlad was top 10 in HR 8 times.

Finley was top 10 in WAR  for pitchers 5 seasons. Vlad was top 10 in WAR for position players 4 seasons.

Finley was top 10 in innings pitches 9 times. Vlad was top 10 in RBI's 8 seasons.

Vlad was great but I think you forget his defense. He led outfielders in errors 9 seasons. He was 3rd and 4th in errors two other seasons. 

Don't get me wrong I think Vlad was terrific. I just think he is a but overrated and Finley was a bit underrated. If Finley was in New York he would have made several more all star teams and received more CY Young votes. It's honestly a joke he was only top ten in CY Young once, and that was 7th place.

Vladdy 

[ten ocho recon scout]

5 hours ago, happybat4 said:

Vlad was great, but I think people forget how bad he was defensively and on the base paths. 

Late in his career, maybe....

Young pre bad back Vlad was a very good baserunner, and very capable RF.

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Bill James wrote a book about HOFers -- one of his arguments was that players who stood out as being unique tended to make strong HOF cases -- Vlad likely fits in there..   He was for most of his prime one of the most exciting players in MLB.   That's where Fin and Vlad are very different.   There have been a ton of Chuck Finley types --Vlads...  not so much.

Ill add something here. 

If vladdy only had to play every 5 days, how many more hot shot 3B prospects would MLB have right now?

[Tank]

6 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Ill add something here. 

If vladdy only had to play every 5 days, how many more hot shot 3B prospects would MLB have right now?

[ten ocho recon scout]

@Angelsjunky, I still say its way too early to call Mookie a surefire HOF guy. In my initial post in regards to that here, i listed some guys, and someone less lazy than me can list more, who had equally stellar 3 or 4 year runs that mookie has had. And theyre all either borderline, or not getting in.

Mookie will have to do what hes done the last 3 years for another 5 give or take to be the guy hes being viewed as right now. Being an MVP candidate for 4 years or so isnt enough. 

Im not at all saying he wont do that. He may come back when baseball resumes and be thr baddest dude in the league. Hes more than capable. 

But like Harper, his hype is making people see him for more than what his numbers actually are. 

His 2019 was very good. His 2018 sas amazing. But which one is he? 2017 he wasnt special at all really.

2019 was the average of those 3 years, give or take. If he puts up another 5 years of 2019, is he a surefire HOF guy?

I know youre a big Harper fan. And youve pumped harper on here a bunch over the years, and I generally agree with you that Harper is a stud, and underrated by many. But harper is a good point in talking betts here..... in 2015 harper seemed like "the man". He never repeated it... and his years since are more star than superstar. Until we see different than mookie, hes not surefire to me.

[m0nkey]

19 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

@Angelsjunky, I still say its way too early to call Mookie a surefire HOF guy. In my initial post in regards to that here, i listed some guys, and someone less lazy than me can list more, who had equally stellar 3 or 4 year runs that mookie has had. And theyre all either borderline, or not getting in.

Mookie will have to do what hes done the last 3 years for another 5 give or take to be the guy hes being viewed as right now. Being an MVP candidate for 4 years or so isnt enough. 

Im not at all saying he wont do that. He may come back when baseball resumes and be thr baddest dude in the league. Hes more than capable. 

But like Harper, his hype is making people see him for more than what his numbers actually are. 

His 2019 was very good. His 2018 sas amazing. But which one is he? 2017 he wasnt special at all really.

2019 was the average of those 3 years, give or take. If he puts up another 5 years of 2019, is he a surefire HOF guy?

I know youre a big Harper fan. And youve pumped harper on here a bunch over the years, and I generally agree with you that Harper is a stud, and underrated by many. But harper is a good point in talking betts here..... in 2015 harper seemed like "the man". He never repeated it... and his years since are more star than superstar. Until we see different than mookie, hes not surefire to me.

I'm the biggest Harper nutswinger on the board and agree that he's in a tier(s) below Mookie as far as future hall of fame probability goes.  

I know WAR isn't the end all be all stat, but Mookie had a 6.9 WAR last year, and in his worst offensive season in 2017 he still had a WAR over 6.  If he has 5 6+ WAR seasons (along with whatever other accumulated WAR he picks up before his career ends), that's 70+ WAR.  The way voters modern day voters seem to go for seasonal awards these days (who will eventually be voting for HOF), I think if his career goes like I said, he's in.

[Brandon]

Speaking of 3rd. I wonder how our boy Rendon will fare in the coming seasons. He's 29, so not a young duck, but say he puts up 4 top tier seasons and gets some more accolades he might jump up in the mix.

Kind of like Harper where we need to see more, but not out of the realm of possibility.

[happybat4]

2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Late in his career, maybe....

Young pre bad back Vlad was a very good baserunner, and very capable RF.

Vlad had speed but he got caught stealing a lot. He also ran into outs a lot. He had a good arm but he was never a good defender. He led all of major league baseball outfielders in errors 9 times. 

[PattyD22]

2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

 

I know youre a big Harper fan. And youve pumped harper on here a bunch over the years.....

This made me laugh

[Angel Oracle]

On 5/14/2020 at 4:00 PM, Brandon said:

Yeah, I'm not throwing Harper in yet either.

Harper and Machado are both in that category of needing a lot more great to MVP type seasons to be HOFers.

[Angelsjunky]

People seem to forget that WAR is an accumulative stat, which means that health and longevity play a part. But shouldn't that be the case? Of course Vlad also was pretty healthy and had a long career, so he and Finley are similar in that regard.

Vlad might be a bit overrated. During his prime years, 1998-2008, he was the 10th best position player according to WAR, and tied for the 11th best hitter. He was quite a hitter, but I think the mystique around his ability to make contact with balls way outside of the zone bolstered his reputation. There were usually a half a dozen or more players who were better hitters. For instance, his best year with the bat--2000, with a 160 wRC+--saw him tied for 7th in the majors in wRC+. His career wRC+ of 136 puts him just outside the top 100, equal to players like Ryan Braun and Will Clark.

That said, WAR isn't everything. I wouldn't put Finley in the Hall, and see Vlad as a borderline case. I'd rather see Bobby Grich, Jim Edmonds, and Andruw Jones in there, but Vlad's uniqueness gives him a bump and makes his choice a solid one. I mean, Jim Rice, Tony Perez, and Andre Dawson are in. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

14 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

People seem to forget that WAR is an accumulative stat, which means that health and longevity play a part. But shouldn't that be the case? Of course Vlad also was pretty healthy and had a long career, so he and Finley are similar in that regard.

Vlad might be a bit overrated. During his prime years, 1998-2008, he was the 10th best position player according to WAR, and tied for the 11th best hitter. He was quite a hitter, but I think the mystique around his ability to make contact with balls way outside of the zone bolstered his reputation. There were usually a half a dozen or more players who were better hitters. For instance, his best year with the bat--2000, with a 160 wRC+--saw him tied for 7th in the majors in wRC+. His career wRC+ of 136 puts him just outside the top 100, equal to players like Ryan Braun and Will Clark.

That said, WAR isn't everything. I wouldn't put Finley in the Hall, and see Vlad as a borderline case. I'd rather see Bobby Grich, Jim Edmonds, and Andruw Jones in there, but Vlad's uniqueness gives him a bump and makes his choice a solid one. I mean, Jim Rice, Tony Perez, and Andre Dawson are in. 

But keep in mind that when you say Vlad was "only" the 7th best hitter in 2000, uh, err... you mean against the likes of Bonds? Manny in Boston, and ARod in Texas, in that lineup? Oh, and all of them on the gear?

"Only" 7th, at the peak of the gear years, when the league was putting up the craziest numbers in history is still pretty good, AJ.