Active Players You Think are HOF Worthy

[happybat4]

Betts isn't that far off. He is already at 41.8 WAR. His down years are usually around 6 WAR. Three more good seasons he will be close. Vlad only had a 59 career WAR. 

[Angelsjunky]

WAR is very useful for this, or more specifically,  JAWs (Average of career WAR and best seven years - based on Baseball Reference). In a way, a Hall of Fame career is like crossing a threshold of accumulative greatness: you need to accumulate enough stats to get there, so every player is on their way, but most fade out before getting there. The average JAWs for each position, with active or recently retired players (not-yet eligible) that have at least half the average JAWs:

C: 44.2 (Mauer 47.2, Posey 39.2, Y Molina 34.5, Martin 33.0, V Martinez 30.4, McCann 28.3)

I don't any of them are definites. I'm including Mauer even though he didn't play in 2019, as he is an interesting case because he was really, really good for about nine years, then faded badly as a mediocre 1B/DH. According to JAWs, he should make it. Posey is going a similar route, it would seem, as he's been fading badly the last couple years. But he was the best non-Trout player in baseball overall from 2012-17 or so, so could sneak in. I don't think any of the others will make it, unless voters highly favor Fangraphs' new catching framing stat which gives Molina, Martin and McCann a huge boost. I think Molina has the best chance of the three.

1B: 54.8 (Pujols 81.3, Cabrera 57.2, Votto 54.4, Ortiz 45.3, Teixeira 44.3, Goldschmidt 41.7, Freeman 33.8, Rizzo 32.6, Encarnacion 31.8, Santana 28.5)

Pujols and Miggy are in, so is Ortiz almost certainly (the postseason heroics are legendary). Votto is close - he's kind of the Jeff Bagwell of this era. But right now he's borderline and he might need to have another good year or two, or else join the ranks of guys like Lance Berkman and Jim Edmonds: Hall of Fame talents who didn't quite have the longevity to get into the Hall, at least not yet. The clock is ticking for Goldschmidt and right now I think he's on the otherside of the borderline divide from Votto. His numbers dipped last year and he's already 32, so will need to have at least a few more good years to have a chance. Freeman isn't quite as good, so will need to age well. None of the others will get in.

2B: 57.0 (Cano 58.7, Utley 56.8, Kinsler 46.6, Pedroia 46.3, Zobrist 42.1, Altuve 35.8, Kendrick 30.1)

Cano and Utley both should probably get in, but the Hall is finicky with second basemen. I could see them going yes for Cano, but no for Utley, who was truly great for half a decade, but only decent for the rest of his career. Altuve would have seemed  a lock a year or two ago, but could be declining. He'll be worth watching over the next year or two as he could go either way.The rest are Hall of the Very Good players.

SS: 55.3 (A-Rod 90.9, Tulowitzki 42.4, Rollins 40.1, H Ramirez 36.5, Simmons 35.3, Reyes 33.3, Peralta 28.5, Andrus 28.1, Lindor 27.6)

It seems more than four years since A-Rod retired. For some reason it is easy to forget how great he was. Roids, I know, but damn. None of the other guys will make it except maybe Lindor, if he has another good half decade or so. Simmons has a slight chance, but needs to return to 2017-18 form for a few years, at least.

3B: 55.7 (Beltre 71.2, Longoria 49.0, Wright 44.3, Donaldson 40.8, Arenado 37.5, Machado 35.9, Zimmerman, Seager 31.9, A Ramirez 30.9, Rendon 29.1, Turner 28.0, Carpenter 27.8)

Beltre is definite. Of the rest, Arenado has the best chance and just needs another few good years. Machado obviously has a chance, but is questionable at this point. The rest are Hall of Very Good types. Rendon has a chance, but needs to age well and be healthy.

LF: 53.6 (Braun 42.7, Holliday 39.4, Gardner 37.2, Crawford 35.7, Gordon 33.2, Upton 31.9, Yelich 31.8, Brantley 28.3, S Marte 27.9)

Remember when the best hitters were either at 1B or LF? Gone are those days, seemingly. Yelich is the only one of these guys that has a real chance and should get in if he has another couple years like the last two and doesn't decline too quickly. 

CF: 58.0 (Trout 69.2, Beltran 57.7, McCutchen 41.6, Granderson 40.9, Hunter 40.7, Cain 34.3, Victorino 30.2, Ellsbury 39.5, Adam Jones 29.1)

That one guy is already earned his placard and just needs to play one more game to make it to the ten years for eligibility. Beltran has a good chance and has kind of snuck up on us, quietly being very good for a long time. I think he'll get the nod, but isn't definite - and if they vote him in, they've got to seriously consider Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds. All three are more deserving than Andre Dawson and Jim Rice. None of the other guys are close; McCutchen faded too quickly.

RF: 57.2 (Suzuki 51.7, Betts 41.8, Stanton 37.6, Bautista 37.5, Heyward 34.5, Cruz 33.9, Choo 31.8, Harper 31.3, Markakis 29.4, Pence 28.9)

Ichiro is in. Betts will get in, barring a collapse. Stanton has the talent, but maybe not the health. It is too soon to tell with Harper. He never really actualized that potential we saw in 2015, but he's young enough that he still might. But there's also a view that he's an old player in his 20s, so might not age well. We'll see. None of the other guys have a chance.

Young Players Not Listed Who Have a Good Chance, But is Too Soon to Tell: Bogaerts, J Ramirez, Bregman, Correa, Chapman, Bellinger, Albies, Soto, Acuna, Tatis Jr, Vlad Jr, Bichette, Hiura, etc.

I'll do pitchers in a second post.

 

[Stradling]

I put Harper in because he’s 27 and has 220 homers.  He will have almost 300 homers at age 30, with ten more years on a contract to get those 200 homers.  

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Yeah, I'm not throwing Harper in yet either.

Agreed. He’s splashy but he hasn’t been consistently amazing. He has a long way to go to get in.

[Tank]

Aaron Judge will be fun to watch.

i think Arenado is headed that way.

[happybat4]

56 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

WAR is very useful for this, or more specifically,  JAWs (Average of career WAR and best seven years - based on Baseball Reference). In a way, a Hall of Fame career is like crossing a threshold of accumulative greatness: you need to accumulate enough stats to get there, so every player is on their way, but most fade out before getting there. The average JAWs for each position, with active or recently retired players (not-yet eligible) that have at least half the average JAWs:

44.2 (Mauer 47.2, Posey 39.2, Y Molina 34.5, Martin 33.0, V Martinez 30.4, McCann 28.3)

I don't any of them are definites. I'm including Mauer even though he didn't play in 2019, as he is an interesting case because he was really, really good for about nine years, then faded badly as a mediocre 1B/DH. According to JAWs, he should make it. Posey is going a similar route, it would seem, as he's been fading badly the last couple years. But he was the best non-Trout player in baseball overall from 2012-17 or so, so could sneak in. I don't think any of the others will make it, unless voters highly favor Fangraphs' new catching framing stat which gives Molina, Martin and McCann a huge boost. I think Molina has the best chance of the three.

1B: 54.8 (Pujols 81.3, Cabrera 57.2, Votto 54.4, Ortiz 45.3, Teixeira 44.3, Goldschmidt 41.7, Freeman 33.8, Rizzo 32.6, Encarnacion 31.8, Santana 28.5)

Pujols and Miggy are in, so is Ortiz almost certainly (the postseason heroics are legendary). Votto is close - he's kind of the Jeff Bagwell of this era. But right now he's borderline and he might need to have another good year or two, or else join the ranks of guys like Lance Berkman and Jim Edmonds: Hall of Fame talents who didn't quite have the longevity to get into the Hall, at least not yet. The clock is ticking for Goldschmidt and right now I think he's on the otherside of the borderline divide from Votto. His numbers dipped last year and he's already 32, so will need to have at least a few more good years to have a chance. Freeman isn't quite as good, so will need to age well. None of the others will get in.

2B: 57.0 (Cano 58.7, Utley 56.8, Kinsler 46.6, Pedroia 46.3, Zobrist 42.1, Altuve 35.8, Kendrick 30.1)

Cano and Utley both should probably get in, but the Hall is finicky with second basemen. I could see them going yes for Cano, but no for Utley, who was truly great for half a decade, but only decent for the rest of his career. Altuve would have seemed  a lock a year or two ago, but could be declining. He'll be worth watching over the next year or two as he could go either way.The rest are Hall of the Very Good players.

SS: 55.3 (A-Rod 90.9, Tulowitzki 42.4, Rollins 40.1, H Ramirez 36.5, Simmons 35.3, Reyes 33.3, Peralta 28.5, Andrus 28.1, Lindor 27.6)

It seems more than four years since A-Rod retired. For some reason it is easy to forget how great he was. Roids, I know, but damn. None of the other guys will make it except maybe Lindor, if he has another good half decade or so. Simmons has a slight chance, but needs to return to 2017-18 form for a few years, at least.

3B: 55.7 (Beltre 71.2, Longoria 49.0, Wright 44.3, Donaldson 40.8, Arenado 37.5, Machado 35.9, Zimmerman, Seager 31.9, A Ramirez 30.9, Rendon 29.1, Turner 28.0, Carpenter 27.8)

Beltre is definite. Of the rest, Arenado has the best chance and just needs another few good years. Machado obviously has a chance, but is questionable at this point. The rest are Hall of Very Good types. Rendon has a chance, but needs to age well and be healthy.

LF: 53.6 (Braun 42.7, Holliday 39.4, Gardner 37.2, Crawford 35.7, Gordon 33.2, Upton 31.9, Yelich 31.8, Brantley 28.3, S Marte 27.9)

Remember when the best hitters were either at 1B or LF? Gone are those days, seemingly. Yelich is the only one of these guys that has a real chance and should get in if he has another couple years like the last two and doesn't decline too quickly. 

CF: 58.0 (Trout 69.2, Beltran 57.7, McCutchen 41.6, Granderson 40.9, Hunter 40.7, Cain 34.3, Victorino 30.2, Ellsbury 39.5, Adam Jones 29.1)

That one guy is already earned his placard and just needs to play one more game to make it to the ten years for eligibility. Beltran has a good chance and has kind of snuck up on us, quietly being very good for a long time. I think he'll get the nod, but isn't definite - and if they vote him in, they've got to seriously consider Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds. All three are more deserving than Andre Dawson and Jim Rice. None of the other guys are close; McCutchen faded too quickly.

RF: 57.2 (Suzuki 51.7, Betts 41.8, Stanton 37.6, Bautista 37.5, Heyward 34.5, Cruz 33.9, Choo 31.8, Harper 31.3, Markakis 29.4, Pence 28.9)

Ichiro is in. Betts will get in, barring a collapse. Stanton has the talent, but maybe not the health. It is too soon to tell with Harper. He never really actualized that potential we saw in 2015, but he's young enough that he still might. But there's also a view that he's an old player in his 20s, so might not age well. We'll see. None of the other guys have a chance.

Young Players Not Listed Who Have a Good Chance, But is Too Soon to Tell: Bogaerts, J Ramirez, Bregman, Correa, Chapman, Bellinger, Albies, Soto, Acuna, Tatis Jr, Vlad Jr, Bichette, Hiura, etc.

I'll do pitchers in a second post.

 

Ortiz and Cano are always going to have the positive steroid results holding them back. 

What if Markakis gets 3000 hits? Not likely with this year being shortened. 

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, happybat4 said:

Ortiz and Cano are always going to have the positive steroid results holding them back. 

What if Markakis gets 3000 hits? Not likely with this year being shortened. 

Then he'll be the first 3000-hit player not to be elected. Or he should be. New precedents happen, and this would be one, imo. But it is highly unlikely that he'll get there. He's 36 and needs 645 hits, which is four good years for him.

[Lou]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Then he'll be the first 3000-hit player not to be elected

Palmeiro 

[Stradling]

Rose

[Angelsjunky]

 

5 minutes ago, Lou said:

Palmeiro 

 

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Rose

You fucking know what I mean.

[Lou]

Someone (new) is angry 

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, happybat4 said:

Betts isn't that far off. He is already at 41.8 WAR. His down years are usually around 6 WAR. Three more good seasons he will be close. Vlad only had a 59 career WAR. 

I thought about vlad vs betts when i wrote my take on it.

But vlad still had a far longer track record. Betts might get there... likely will... but thats to catch vlad, in WAR. 

Jim Edmonds had 60 WAR... didnt get past the first year...

And Betts still hasnt put together Edmonds' first 5 years in St Louis... 

[Angelsjunky]

SP: 61.6 (Verlander 60.8, Greinke 59.6, Kershaw 58.8, Scherzer 54.3, Sabathia 50.9, Hamels 48.5, Hudson 48.1, Buehrle 47.4, F Hernandez 44.3, Sale 42.4, Colon 40.7, Lester 39.7, Wainwright 37.4, Price 35.7, deGrom 35.5, Peavy 35.0, Haren 34.1, Lackey 33.2, Bumgarner 33.2, Weaver 32.9, Kluber 32.7, Strasburg 31.5, Zito 31.3, Cueto 29.9)

The first four are likely all already in. I guess you could make an argument against Greinke, but he's basically Mike Mussina with a couple great years sprinkled into otherwise very good seasons, and Mussina eventually got in.

Of the rest, I don't think any of them make it except for perhaps deGrom and Strasburg, but both have to age really well. I would have thought Sale had a good chance a year ago, but his arm is worrying. I kind of see Bumgarner as the Andy Pettittle of his era: maybe the VC will eventually vote both in, but neither are quite Hall caliber.

Sabathia has a chance, I suppose. Hard to say.

RP: 32.6 (Nathan 24.2, Papelbon 21.4, F Rodriguez 20.9, Kimbrel 19.0, Soria 17.2, Chapman 16.5, etc)

Man, who knows. JAWs isn't all that useful here, less so even than SP. I suppose Kimbrel and Chapman both have a chance if they age well.

SUMMARY 

Locks (90%+): Pujols, Cabrera, Ortiz, A-Rod (eventually), Beltre, Trout, Suzuki, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer.

Probably (60%+): Posey, Votto, Cano, Greinke, Yelich, Beltran, Betts.

Maybe (Roughly 50-50, plus or minus): Mauer, Y Molina, Utley, Altuve, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Arenado, Rendon, Stanton, Harper, Machado, Lindor, Sabathia.

Probably Not, but Possible (20-40%): Pedroia, Simmons, Longoria, Donaldson, McCutchen, Kimbrel, Chapman.

Unlikely (<20%): Everyone else, other than young guys not listed yet.

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

Tid-bit: Bobby Grich has the highest JAWS among eligible HOF candidates with no controversies that isn't in the Hall, with 58.7. Among position players, at least. For pitchers, it is Jim McCormick at 72.4.

 

 

[failos]

23 hours ago, Stradling said:

Pretty self explanatory.  Which active players do you think will be elected to the Hall of Fame.  

Albert

Trout

Miggy

Kershaw

Greinke

Scherzer

Harper

Votto 

Stanton if he stays relatively healthy

I am missing a ton of guys.  Interested in what you all think.  

 

Bryce Harper does not belong in the Hall of Fame.

[failos]

1 hour ago, happybat4 said:

Ortiz and Cano are always going to have the positive steroid results holding them back. 

Same with Lloyd Braun

[Stradling]

25 minutes ago, failos said:

Bryce Harper does not belong in the Hall of Fame.

He will get there

[Lou]

32 minutes ago, failos said:

Same with Lloyd Braun

Ryan's brother?

[ten ocho recon scout]

31 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He will get there

Meh, i dont know. If WAR ends up being the criteria, like AJ is suggesting, im not so sure.... 

Harper will have the counting stats, im sure. But looking further.... hes got an MVP, whichnis obviously huge. But in 8 years, he finished 12 one other time, and thats it.

Hes a star player. No doubt. But aside from his monster year, has he ever been a top 10 player?

Hes at 31 WAR right now, after 8 years....

I wont write him off, just saying that as of right now, hes not trending that way. Hes gonna have to have another two monster years to bridge the gap.

And like a lot of guys (all of them) it will be interesting to see how covid effects everyone... missing a year of baseball is gonna suck for all these guys.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

Ryan's brother?

dude. 

 

[failos]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

He will get there

He will definitely make the Hall of Douchebags.

[stormngt]

6 hours ago, Brandon said:

Yeah, I'm not throwing Harper in yet either.

I was going to comment on that.  Has Harper done that well that he is a lock?

[stormngt]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

I put Harper in because he’s 27 and has 220 homers.  He will have almost 300 homers at age 30, with ten more years on a contract to get those 200 homers.  

You think he will be healthy enough to play until age 40?

[Lou]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

dude. 

 

Crap. (I missed my nap today)

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Another thing to consider, about using WAR as the end all of if guys are going to get in or not.

Chuck Finley had 57 WAR... almost the same as Vlad. Fin wss never getting in.