Active Players You Think are HOF Worthy

[Lou]

11 hours ago, eaterfan said:

We've just all forgotten the past equivalents of the Lee Smith's who got voted into the Hall in 1941.

Seeing as there was no such thing as a closer, there were no equivalents.

[Angelsjunky]

He has a point. Monte Irvin has the lowest career fWAR among HoF batters at 20.8, but he spent his 20s in the Negro Leagues, where he was a superstar, so has extenuating circumstances.

Next up from the bottom is Ray Schalk with 22.4 fWAR. He hit .253/.340/.316 with an 88 wRC+ in 1762 games, but was a defensive specialist during a time when there were no good defense stats. The Veterans Committee voted in a ton of players from the first half of the century as some kind of nostalgia binge.

There are currently 269 players--including 35 Negro Leaguers--in the Hall. Considering that over 19,000 people have played in MLB--a number that would rise to well over 20K if we include the Negro Leagues--then we can say that a Hall of Famer is a player who is among the best 1% or so to play the game. One in a hundred has a certain ring to it.

If we tighten the criteria a bit and say 500 PA and 150 IP--or roughly equal to a qualifying season--then the total is closer to 10K, meaning one in 40-50 guys to have substantial careers.

Given that about 850-900 guys play MLB in a given year, that means that means there should be 8-9ish active Hall of Famers in a typical year. Let's take another look (active players only):

Definite: Pujols, Cabrera, Trout, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer.

Maybe-to-Probably: Posey, Votto, Cano, Greinke, Yelich, Betts, Altuve, Arenado.

Probably not, but possible: Donaldson, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rendon, Stanton, Lindor, deGrom, Simmons, Y Molina, Chapman, Kimbrel, etc.

Hall Talents But Too Soon: Harper, Machado, Acuna, Soto, Correa, Chapman, Bellinger, Bregman, etc.

So the definites gives us six; if we take half of the next group, we're already at 10 (and probably more than half of those guys make it); if we take one-third of the next group and sprinkle in a few more, we're in the 15-20 range...about twice what would have been expected from the historical numbers.

I'm not quite up for the task, but probably the only way to get to the bottom of this would be to look year by year and see how many active Hall of Famers there were, and look for fluctuations. Maybe we're just in an upswing of Hall of Fame talent.

Edited May 19, 2020 by Angelsjunky

[happybat4]

24 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

He has a point. Monte Irvin has the lowest career fWAR among HoF batters at 20.8, but he spent his 20s in the Negro Leagues, where he was a superstar, so has extenuating circumstances.

Next up from the bottom is Ray Schalk with 22.4 fWAR. He hit .253/.340/.316 with an 88 wRC+ in 1762 games, but was a defensive specialist during a time when there were no good defense stats. The Veterans Committee voted in a ton of players from the first half of the century as some kind of nostalgia binge.

There are currently 269 players--including 35 Negro Leaguers--in the Hall. Considering that over 19,000 people have played in MLB--a number that would rise to well over 20K if we include the Negro Leagues--then we can say that a Hall of Famer is a player who is among the best 1% or so to play the game. One in a hundred has a certain ring to it.

If we tighten the criteria a bit and say 500 PA and 150 IP--or roughly equal to a qualifying season--then the total is closer to 10K, meaning one in 40-50 guys to have substantial careers.

Given that about 850-900 guys play MLB in a given year, that means that means there should be 8-9ish active Hall of Famers in a typical year. Let's take another look (active players only):

Definite: Pujols, Cabrera, Trout, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer.

Maybe-to-Probably: Posey, Votto, Cano, Greinke, Yelich, Betts, Altuve, Arenado.

Probably not, but possible: Donaldson, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rendon, Stanton, Lindor, deGrom, Simmons, Y Molina, Chapman, Kimbrel, etc.

Hall Talents But Too Soon: Harper, Machado, Acuna, Soto, Correa, Chapman, Bellinger, Bregman, etc.

So the definites gives us six; if we take half of the next group, we're already at 10 (and probably more than half of those guys make it); if we take one-third of the next group and sprinkle in a few more, we're in the 15-20 range...about twice what would have been expected from the historical numbers.

I'm not quite up for the task, but probably the only way to get to the bottom of this would be to look year by year and see how many active Hall of Famers there were, and look for fluctuations. Maybe we're just in an upswing of Hall of Fame talent.

Greinke is definitely in in my book. 

[JustATroutFan]

Kluber might have a good shot. Might have had a poor season when he was pitching in 2019 but he's done well prior to last season for 5 seasons that I'm still thinking he's got a solid chance of making the Hall of Fame. Guys who locate their pitches tend to age well. Kluber is that guy. So is Greinke. And before him, Maddux. Felix is going to make it in one day. There are worse pitchers in it than Felix. Jack Morris, don't get how a mediocre 3.90 ERA puts a starting pitcher in. Cole, not bad of a shot at making it. Still in the prime of his career and has the stuff and confidence to continue to be special for the next five seasons at the very least. Rendon? He does have a shot. I expect him to put up a few great years at the plate for the Angels. Excellent plate discipline. 

[Angelsjunky]

I just found this which uses Bill James' formula:

https://www.thebaseballgauge.com/hof.php?tab=active

[Tank]

On 5/18/2020 at 5:45 PM, Lou said:

Seeing as there was no such thing as a closer, there were no equivalents.