Explain Bumgarner’s value

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

He also knows how to gut out a win and churn out innings without your best stuff. He is an old school pitcher! 

[Hubs]

Worrying about his results last year at a 3.9 ERA/FIP and a higher road ERA... is recency bias.

I've been guilty of it too, like with Cozart, but I really felt he'd turned a corner.

Bumgarner is going to cost around 20-$22 M per season. That's big money, but it's not insane money.

15 of his 34 appearances were on the road, 19 at home.

He pitched in Boston, St. Louis, Oakland, Arizona x 2, San Diego x 2, Milwaukee, Los Angeles (Chavez) x 2, New York, Miami, Pittsburgh and Colorado.

At Boston, he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. St. Louis, 6 ER in 5 innings. Colorado, 5 ER in 5 innings. 6 ER in 3.2 innings against the Dodgers. His Road ERA in those 4 starts was 10.60... his road ERA in the other ones? 3.79.

 

[Hubs]

Basically, he had 6 bad games in 34 starts, (5 ER or more) is that ace level? No...but putting your team in position to win 29 times and pitching 207 innings is something this staff badly needs.

[eaterfan]

6 minutes ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

He also knows how to gut out a win and churn out innings without your best stuff. He is an old school pitcher! 

So was Weaver... that works until it doesn't.

I'm fine with a middling innings eating pitcher like I suspect Mad Bum will be. I would not recommend spending $80 million over 4 years for it plus $500k in international bonuses and a 2nd round pick and its monetary slot value.

3 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Worrying about his results last year at a 3.9 ERA/FIP and a higher road ERA... is recency bias.

I've been guilty of it too, like with Cozart, but I really felt he'd turned a corner.

Bumgarner is going to cost around 20-$22 M per season. That's big money, but it's not insane money.

15 of his 34 appearances were on the road, 19 at home.

He pitched in Boston, St. Louis, Oakland, Arizona x 2, San Diego x 2, Milwaukee, Los Angeles (Chavez) x 2, New York, Miami, Pittsburgh and Colorado.

At Boston, he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. St. Louis, 6 ER in 5 innings. Colorado, 5 ER in 5 innings. 6 ER in 3.2 innings against the Dodgers. His Road ERA in those 4 starts was 10.60... his road ERA in the other ones? 3.79.

 

If we only look at outings in some of the best pitcher's parks in baseball than of course his ERA will be great. Oakland, San Diego x 2, NY if Mets, and Miami are all pretty big pitcher's parks, right?

[VariousCrap]

12 hours ago, Tyler said:

Like Kershaw, he doesn't have enough left in the tank. Time to get active on trade market after signing Rendon. Boyd and Ray.

 

Kershaw is still way better than Madbum.

 

[Tank]

if the angels sign him, his decline will happen rapidly.

if the angels don't sign him, he'll go somewhere else and be very serviceable for 3-4 years.

this is the angels reality we face every year.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

2 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

So was Weaver... that works until it doesn't.

I'm fine with a middling innings eating pitcher like I suspect Mad Bum will be. But I would not recommend spending $80 million over 4 years for it. 

If we only look at outings in some of the best pitcher's parks in baseball than of course his ERA will be great. Oakland, San Diego x 2, NY if Mets, and Miami are all pretty big pitcher's parks, right?

I already mentioned this in a previous post in another thread.

He was 2-0 vs the A's 7 innings and 5 innings think he gave up 2 runs in 12 innings with 12 k's.

[VariousCrap]

I believe I read that Madbum's velocity has been dropping and if that is the case, I think it is dumb to give him a five year deal.  Supposedly the Dodgers are going for him, so he is going to get his 5 year/100+ million.

Highest I'd offer for him is 3/60 or 4/80.

Edited December 11, 2019 by VariousCrap

[Hubs]

6 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

I believe I read that Madbum's velocity has been dropping and if that is the case, I think it is dumb to give him a five year deal.  Supposedly the Dodgers are going for him, so he is going to get his 5 year/100+ million.

Highest I'd offer for him is 3/60 or 4/80.

I think that's the narrative, but it really hasn't been.

It's not like in his early years he was throwing 96 and now he's throwing 92.

I looked it up and posted it and basically, he was mid to high 92's, one 93.0 season, and his velocity last year was 91.7. It's not that big of a variance.

 

[eaterfan]

10 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think that's the narrative, but it really hasn't been.

It's not like in his early years he was throwing 96 and now he's throwing 92.

I looked it up and posted it and basically, he was mid to high 92's, one 93.0 season, and his velocity last year was 91.7. It's not that big of a variance.

 

I think that's a trick of scale. When the range of fastballs in MLB is basically from 89-97 (8) losing 1 MPH is losing 13% comparatively. Also, wasn't there a study done that showed basically for every MPH lost it was worth about half a run of ERA? I think if Mad Bum pitched like this for the next 5 years then he's worth the $100 million, but if he loses another MPH or 2 over that time then he's a possible disaster at a Harvey like level.

[angelinkc]

I would love to see the Angels get MadBum. We are from the same small town and played at same HS years apart. He was slightly better than me. That said, I don't see him going to the AL unless there is a huge overpay. If the money is equal, he goes to the Giants, Braves,Cards, or Reds. Anyone else is will need to seriously outbid those teams. The talking heads are have to know this but I guess the need to stir up interest throwing all these teams  landing spots. 

Makes me think Ryu goes back to Dogs. The  Angels need to grab Darvish and Contreras. We will then have to win the battle for Rendon. 

[failos]

He’s better than Ordismer Despaingne or whatever the fuck his name is

[Hubs]

29 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I think that's a trick of scale. When the range of fastballs in MLB is basically from 89-97 (8) losing 1 MPH is losing 13% comparatively. Also, wasn't there a study done that showed basically for every MPH lost it was worth about half a run of ERA? I think if Mad Bum pitched like this for the next 5 years then he's worth the $100 million, but if he loses another MPH or 2 over that time then he's a possible disaster at a Harvey like level.

His velocity upticked from 2017 and 2018 to match 2016.

Season	Team	vFA	vFC	vFS	vSI	vCH	vSL	vCU	vCS	vKN	vSB
2009	Giants	89.5				83.0	78.1
2010	Giants	92.0	85.6			83.8		75.2
2011	Giants	92.5	88.0			84.1		77.4
2012	Giants	92.2	88.6			85.2		76.9
2013	Giants	92.5	88.7			85.2		77.8	69.1
2014	Giants	92.8	88.9			84.4		77.6	70.7
2015	Giants	93.0	87.1			85.9		77.5	70.5
2016	Giants	91.7	87.6			84.1		75.4	70.7
2017	Giants	91.3	87.0			83.1		78.2	69.9
2018	Giants	91.4	86.0			84.1		78.1	71.0
2019	Giants	91.7	87.5		88.8	84.5	93.3	79.0
Total	- - -	92.2	87.8		88.8	84.5	78.4	77.5	70.7

[Hubs]

I just see consistency. If he's a 3.7-4.2 pitcher for the next 5 seasons, with 1000 IP and 150 starts, I'm good with that.

If he rebounds for two years into the low 3's, then pushes up to the high 3's to low 4's, I'm good with that.

This is the guy left that they need.

I also want Darvish and Contreras.

[Stradling]

Hey I love the competitor he is and if we sign him I hope he goes out and finds a bit of his past success.  Right now I think most of us are disappointed enough to be overly critical.  

[2112]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Worrying about his results last year at a 3.9 ERA/FIP and a higher road ERA... is recency bias.

I've been guilty of it too, like with Cozart, but I really felt he'd turned a corner.

Bumgarner is going to cost around 20-$22 M per season. That's big money, but it's not insane money.

15 of his 34 appearances were on the road, 19 at home.

He pitched in Boston, St. Louis, Oakland, Arizona x 2, San Diego x 2, Milwaukee, Los Angeles (Chavez) x 2, New York, Miami, Pittsburgh and Colorado.

At Boston, he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. St. Louis, 6 ER in 5 innings. Colorado, 5 ER in 5 innings. 6 ER in 3.2 innings against the Dodgers. His Road ERA in those 4 starts was 10.60... his road ERA in the other ones? 3.79.

 

And games where he didn't give up a run his era was 0.00.  You're cherry picking.

 

And his ERA will climb being in the AL with the designated hitter.  His road stats might be what he sees in the AL.

[floplag]

All i know is that the dodgers,. who are as of this moment still better than us and have more pitching than we have, are interested in their once bitter adversary... that should tell us something. 

[Pancake Bear]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

I don’t think you should be calling anyone out with an insult.  You’re just upset Cole chose the Yankees and want to vent.

I like him, and I’m not worried about his peripherals. His Velocity is within 1.3 mph of his high and has always been around the same. It is not diminishing.

You said he’s worse than the four locks for the Angels rotation so you’ve drunk the analytic Kool Aid.

None of the Angels starters pitched 100 innings last year and had an ERA under 4. MadBum did. So maybe I just have a different opinion and that’s fine. 

No need for personal insults.

I specifically asked for a why. You ignored it. Don’t get huffy with me for that. 

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Worrying about his results last year at a 3.9 ERA/FIP and a higher road ERA... is recency bias.

I've been guilty of it too, like with Cozart, but I really felt he'd turned a corner.

Bumgarner is going to cost around 20-$22 M per season. That's big money, but it's not insane money.

15 of his 34 appearances were on the road, 19 at home.

He pitched in Boston, St. Louis, Oakland, Arizona x 2, San Diego x 2, Milwaukee, Los Angeles (Chavez) x 2, New York, Miami, Pittsburgh and Colorado.

At Boston, he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. St. Louis, 6 ER in 5 innings. Colorado, 5 ER in 5 innings. 6 ER in 3.2 innings against the Dodgers. His Road ERA in those 4 starts was 10.60... his road ERA in the other ones? 3.79.

 

If you’d just posted this at the beginning, I wouldn’t have complained about the first post. I’ve been seeing people argue than Bumgarner is a clear second tier guy with zero argument why other than something something 2014 playoffs. 

I don’t think I see him as a guy I want still, but I appreciate a more substantial defense of him. 

[Hubs]

I know we disagree, and that's fine. I understood your question but was too lazy to do a full defense. It's not the first time you've jumped on me with an implied insult, and I'm just asking for you to refrain from that sort of thing, ok?

But anyway, I think I like the idea of Bumgarner and Darvish now for a few more million than Cole's AAV.

(Or Bumgarner and Ryu I suppose)...

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

I don’t think you should be calling anyone out with an insult.  You’re just upset Cole chose the Yankees and want to vent.

I like him, and I’m not worried about his peripherals. His Velocity is within 1.3 mph of his high and has always been around the same. It is not diminishing.

You said he’s worse than the four locks for the Angels rotation so you’ve drunk the analytic Kool Aid.

None of the Angels starters pitched 100 innings last year and had an ERA under 4. MadBum did. So maybe I just have a different opinion and that’s fine. 

No need for personal insults.

Who did he insult?   Calling you out for not actually responding to what he was asking isn't anymore insulting than ignoring the question -- if you think it is maybe you're the one tilted about Cole going elsewhere..

Also, it's pretty hypocritical to cry out about insults when your response includes the line "so you’ve drunk the analytic Kool Aid."  I guess believing in facts should take a back seat to a good case of "the feels" in your world and anyone who doesn't share your POV, is what exactly?

None of Canning, Barria, Suarez or Sandoval started the season on the MLB roster, so your 100 IP criteria is pretty meaningless.  You're just picking out a random factoid and giving it credence regardless of context -- only one of those 4 pitchers made more than 15 starts and none had more than 17, but yes the ability to eat innings is a selling point in favor of Bumgarner.   As far as Bumgarners' ERA goes -- his ERA+ was 107..  Tyler Skaggs who most here felt was having an awful season until he died put up an ERA+ of 106.   Again, the home park is masking the mediocrity.  Based on actual performance, not name recognition, not feels, would you have given Skaggs 100+ mil?  Do you find it even remotely concerning that he's seen his ERA+ drop in four consecutive innings? or does it not matter because OMG he is Madbum!

Look, I don't agree that all the guys the Angels currently have would be better than Bumgarner but, there is reason to question if he is worth 5 years and 100 million particular and whether or not he would be better enough to justify the outlay in payroll -- that's the real issue.   

Looking at the analytic Kool Aid numbers, his spin rates last year might be an indication he should have been better than he was -- we know Eppler loves those spin rates..  But as a whole there are red flags there -- the problem is that pretty much everyone left to be had has some measure of red flag warning attached to them.

Pray Eppler finds the one that offers the most value and best chance of overcoming their warts.   

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Hufflepuff said:

I’ll play devils advocate:

-Peak velo was 92.1 and last year he sat at 91.4. If he can sustain that, he should be solid.

-swinging strike % also very solid, less than 2% off his peak years. 
 

-He really suffered from a high hard hit % which may be attributed to the new ball. 
 

His rate of regression will determine if he’s a good or bad signing. 

K rate is up across all of baseball so, that is masking some erosion of his actual ability to miss bats.  The spin rate data is probably the best argument in favor of Madbum, as is the reality that he can and always has eaten up innings.

[Lou]

IP is getting testy .

 

let it go, gents

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Who did he insult?   Calling you out for not actually responding to what he was asking isn't anymore insulting than ignoring the question -- if you think it is maybe you're the one tilted about Cole going elsewhere..

Also, it's pretty hypocritical to cry out about insults when your response includes the line "so you’ve drunk the analytic Kool Aid."  I guess believing in facts should take a back seat to a good case of "the feels" in your world and anyone who doesn't share your POV, is what exactly?

None of Canning, Barria, Suarez or Sandoval started the season on the MLB roster, so your 100 IP criteria is pretty meaningless.  You're just picking out a random factoid and giving it credence regardless of context -- only one of those 4 pitchers made more than 15 starts and none had more than 17, but yes the ability to eat innings is a selling point in favor of Bumgarner.   As far as Bumgarners' ERA goes -- his ERA+ was 107..  Tyler Skaggs who most here felt was having an awful season until he died put up an ERA+ of 106.   Again, the home park is masking the mediocrity.  Based on actual performance, not name recognition, not feels, would you have given Skaggs 100+ mil?  Do you find it even remotely concerning that he's seen his ERA+ drop in four consecutive innings? or does it not matter because OMG he is Madbum!

Look, I don't agree that all the guys the Angels currently have would be better than Bumgarner but, there is reason to question if he is worth 5 years and 100 million particular and whether or not he would be better enough to justify the outlay in payroll -- that's the real issue.   

Looking at the analytic Kool Aid numbers, his spin rates last year might be an indication he should have been better than he was -- we know Eppler loves those spin rates..  But as a whole there are red flags there -- the problem is that pretty much everyone left to be had has some measure of red flag warning attached to them.

Pray Eppler finds the one that offers the most value and best chance of overcoming their warts.   

He implied that I didn't understand the question. He's also done it several times before. I just didn't appreciate it.

 

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Not that I disagree with what you're saying, because 100 million is a lot for Bummy. But the road ERA could be a one year outlier. I think he's a decent enough pitcher to improve on that, but I don't have any certainty he will. And I'm not really down for us to pay 100 million to find out.

It was 4.97 last year... (2018)

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, VariousCrap said:

 

Kershaw is still way better than Madbum.

 

Not in months ending in ctober