2018 Hot Stove League

[Homebrewer]

16 hours ago, Stradling said:

I keep going back to the stats the fifth starter gave us last year.   The improvement there feels like five wins by itself.  

 

12 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

You think we’ve improved? Lol the low expectations are hilarious on this board

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Jay said:

Not really going out on a limb to say the team has improved from 80 wins. Changing the color of their socks would be an improvement.

 

Scioscia is gone. That's good for 5 games right there!

#playoffbound

[totdprods]

If the Reds get Grandal or Realmuto, Barnhart would be a great target. Sort of a Grandal-lite.

Bradley and Greinke would be great. There’s a lot of offseason to go!

[UndertheHalo]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

My only response is Albert. That was the price.  Obviously it won’t destroy the team but if Erin is right on the price it would be a huge hit. We look at Kole or Cozart contract and cringe.  This would be the same. 

There’s absolutely risk.  It’s part of it with FA.  I don’t know that I’d comp it with Albert tho. 

I mean I think it’s valid to say that the Angels aren’t in a position to make the commitment given their realistic outlook over the next couple of years.  It’s definitely fair to be concerned about whether Grandal will productive when the Angels enter a win window. 

I guess it boils down to how close you think they are.  It’s definitely debatable.  The Angels are a tough to team to get a good read on right now. 

Edited December 22, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[beatlesrule]

This team has given up on winning the division. They are going for the 2nd wild card. New York, Boston, Houston and Cleveland(unless they keep trading away everyone) are pretty much automatic locks to get a playoff birth. That leaves the Angels as a fringe 2nd wild card contender. Arte doesn't want to put the best team possible on the field. He seems very content with just seeing what happens all while he gets 3 million fans and sticking to his budget. The Luxury tax is 206 million next year. The Angels are well below that and Arte seems very comfortable there. To say he wants to win is a little misleading. He wants to remain competitive which is why we haven't seen any kind of rebuild even though we should have 2-3 years ago. As long as we have Trout, Simmons, Ohtani and some halfway decent pitching, the Angels will remain just want Moreno wants. Entertaining enough to watch but not likely to make any noise in October all while staying within his comfortable budget.

[Angel Oracle]

I’m actually hoping the Reds sign Grandal.   Barnhart would be a good target.   Average WAR since 2016 is 2.5, only turns 28 in January, and is under club control through 2021 for only $12 million total.

That leaves enough to bring in one solid reliever like Robertson.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, ettin said:

Grandal will command $16M to $20M per season on a 4-year deal. His comp is similar to McCann.

You're likely right in that he's as close to a comp as we can likely find but that deal turned out to be awful....   7.5 bWAR return on 85 mil in salary.   

I don't know that teams are willing to operate in the same manner they did 6 years ago when McCaan got his deal.   I'm guessing of course, but I don't know that we can look back as easily as we once did when trying to project salaries.

What we do know is that the Dodgers felt comfortable offering him 17.9 mil for one year with the Q.O.   The question now is, are there any teams out there willing to go that high for four years.

[Erstad Grit]

9 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're likely right in that he's as close to a comp as we can likely find but that deal turned out to be awful....   7.5 bWAR return on 85 mil in salary.   

I don't know that teams are willing to operate in the same manner they did 6 years ago when McCaan got his deal.   I'm guessing of course, but I don't know that we can look back as easily as we once did when trying to project salaries.

What we do know is that the Dodgers felt comfortable offering him 17.9 mil for one year with the Q.O.   The question now is, are there any teams out there willing to go that high for four years.

This!  

[Lou]

who has Houston lost and added since the end of the season? 

[Lou]

18 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

What we do know is that the Dodgers felt comfortable offering him 17.9 mil for one year with the Q.O.   The question now is, are there any teams out there willing to go that high for four years.

I don't think they extend the QO offer if they thought that there was any chance that he accepts it. 

[floplag]

50 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If this is true then no way in hell would I be ok with giving Grandall $80 million. 

I admit 100% i would not love that deal...  15ish is one thing, 20 is another entirely.

50 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I’d rather go with Briceno

...but if this is the option, then i would manage to deal with it.  

Im simply not prepared to concede the 19 season and if this is what we do thats what were doing unless we upgrade elsewhere or in another way.    

[floplag]

18 minutes ago, Lou said:

I don't think they extend the QO offer if they thought that there was any chance that he accepts it. 

i think they offered it thinking even if he did accept it was only 1 year, not that that sets the bar for a 3-4 year deal.  
He was projected at 3/39, about 13M per, the market has been running high for the top names so 14, 15 isnt absurd, beyond that... yeah, too much 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're likely right in that he's as close to a comp as we can likely find but that deal turned out to be awful....   7.5 bWAR return on 85 mil in salary.   

I don't know that teams are willing to operate in the same manner they did 6 years ago when McCaan got his deal.   I'm guessing of course, but I don't know that we can look back as easily as we once did when trying to project salaries.

What we do know is that the Dodgers felt comfortable offering him 17.9 mil for one year with the Q.O.   The question now is, are there any teams out there willing to go that high for four years.

Personally I don't think the spending has changed it is simply who the teams spend it on. Pujols, Cabrera, and Davis deals at 1B are not what they once were and rightfully so. Catcher is still a critical position so I think Grandal will get something like 4 years, $65M-$80M no problem. If a team goes to a fifth year then you are in McCann territory and perhaps even more if he has a diverse market for his services.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

If this is true then no way in hell would I be ok with giving Grandall $80 million. 

It certainly makes you stop and think about how you apply your resources. Also the 2nd round pick loss too.

I'd rather see the Angels make a trade for a guy like Plawecki instead at this point. Alternatively start on of Briceno/Smith as a lefty-mashing option and put the other down in AAA as backup and then sign someone like Avila who can mash righties and get another optionable catcher (say a Chance Sisco type perhaps) that can handle RHP and call it a day.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, ettin said:

Personally I don't think the spending has changed it is simply who the teams spend it on. Pujols, Cabrera, and Davis deals at 1B are not what they once were and rightfully so. Catcher is still a critical position so I think Grandal will get something like 4 years, $65M-$80M no problem. If a team goes to a fifth year then you are in McCann territory and perhaps even more if he has a diverse market for his services.

I can't argue for or against -- but I agree we have seen a shift in how the buyers spend.   I can see 15 mil for four years -- in part because the bar was set at 18 mil for one year.   It will be interesting to see where Harper and Machado ultimately sign and what they sign for.   

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

I don't think they extend the QO offer if they thought that there was any chance that he accepts it. 

Oh, I agree -- what I should have said was that QO might be the high end of what he can expect on a per year basis....

Edited December 22, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[ukyah]

On 12/21/2018 at 2:23 PM, Kody Mac said:

Who plays Center? Bellinger?

 

angelsfan who thinks your trolling with this idea, would be wise to look up bellinger's metrics in center. he's surprisingly decent at that position. it's not nearly the square peg in a round hole that i would have thought.

i think there are many scenarios where the dodgers are comfortable with bellinger in CF.

[beatlesrule]

The Padres and Blue Jays are reportedly discussing a deal that would send Marcus Stroman to the friendly confines of San Diego, per sources close to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.

[ukyah]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

Ok I know you won’t, but how bout a friendly wager.   You say 80, I’ll take the over.   How bout $50 per game difference?  So if they win 75 games I owe you $250, they win 85 you owe me $250.  

 

14 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

Deal

 

i'm into this bet. i like stradling's side here, by a lot. i can see it going either way slightly, but it has massive potential to blow up in grittyveterans face. the angels aren't going to be the worst team in the league, unless horrific things happen to a name i shall not mention. so a losing season for them is somewhere between 75-80 games, a maximum likely loss of 250 dollars. however things could finally go well for the team, average offensive production and healthy league average pitching could lead to a scenario where they win 90-95 games. potentially a 10-15 game swing at $50 a pop. that's a wise bet, even if you end up losing.

[ettin]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

I’m actually hoping the Reds sign Grandal.   Barnhart would be a good target.   Average WAR since 2016 is 2.5, only turns 28 in January, and is under club control through 2021 for only $12 million total.

That leaves enough to bring in one solid reliever like Robertson.

I like Barnhart a lot but really didn't think the Reds would move him but if they do trade for Realmuto or sign Grandal then it becomes a possibility, although they could be looking for a super platoon at catcher.

He would cost two quality prospects though unless we send a MLB piece back, i.e. someone with equivalent surplus value.

[nando714]

Wouldn’t mind the angels kicking tires on C Travis D’Arnaud 

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, nando714 said:

Wouldn’t mind the angels kicking tires on C Travis D’Arnaud 

he and the Reds just avoided arbitration by agreeing to a deal for $3.5M 

[hangin n wangin]

Damn it. I would love to have D’Arnaud. He  would be great at catching the injuries from our pitchers.

[nando714]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

he and the Reds just avoided arbitration by agreeing to a deal for $3.5M 

Mets

hes behind Ramos and battling for back up spot 

[Roy Hobbs]

They say sarcasm doesn't translate on message boards, this post proves it can sometimes.Well done Hangin

[floplag]

Per Cafardo at Boston Globe were supposedly still in on Keuchel.  
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/angels-brewers-rangers-reportedly-interested-in-dallas-keuchel.html
I find this odd considering recent developments unless the plan is to turn around and spin pitching for catching?