2018 Hot Stove League

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Per Cafardo at Boston Globe were supposedly still in on Keuchel.  
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/angels-brewers-rangers-reportedly-interested-in-dallas-keuchel.html
I find this odd considering recent developments unless the plan is to turn around and spin pitching for catching?

If we are then expect a trade of a starter to get some prospects back.  

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If we are then expect a trade of a starter to get some prospects back.  

If we're spending money on Keuchel might as well get Grandal too.

[Stradling]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

If we're spending money on Keuchel might as well get Grandal too.

I agree and Jed Lowrie 

[totdprods]

Adding Keuchel would make for a for a pretty solid rotation. Would think they could trade an arm for a catcher or infielder 

[wopphil]

58 minutes ago, floplag said:

Per Cafardo at Boston Globe were supposedly still in on Keuchel.  
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/angels-brewers-rangers-reportedly-interested-in-dallas-keuchel.html
I find this odd considering recent developments unless the plan is to turn around and spin pitching for catching?

I have a tough time believing that a writer from the Boston Globe would have any idea whether the Angels are truly interested. Pure speculation, I assume.

[popo85]

Maybe they are going to trade one of there SPs for a Catcher then go after Dallas, maybe who knows

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

If we're spending money on Keuchel might as well get Grandal too.

This!

[Homebrewer]

Not our money!

[Second Base]

As a pitcher, Keuchel makes total sense. But from a business standpoint, he doesn't. He's a ground ball pitcher that keeps the runs down and can go 7-8 innings an appearance when things are going for him. That's definitely what the Angels need. But the Angels also need to keep stockpiling draft picks and international bonus money. Sacrificing the second round pick and another high end prospect from the DR for Keuchel is a steep price to pay. That's basically the equivalent of trading Griffin Canning and D'Shawn Knowles, as well as paying whatever salary Keuchel makes, probably 5 years, 100 million, so 20 million a year. 

It makes sense in a 2019 and 2020 scenario, but 2021-2023 you're looking at his age 33-35 seasons. 

It's no coincidence that Keuchel's best seasons, 2014 and 2015, also happened to be when his velocity was at its highest (averaging 91 mph). His last three seasons which could be fairly described as, "up and down" Keuchel has sat 89. His peripheral stats indicate that 89 mph still works for him though, but it's pretty clear that his front of the rotation days are behind him. As long as Keuchel can remain at 89, this shouldn't be a problem, but not many pitchers carry the same velo at age 35 that they did at 28. 

And if this doesn't scare anyone away from this deal, I don't know what will.

Keuchel's velocity on a year and age basis, almost perfectly mirror Jered Weaver's. Weav was an ace in 2010-2012, his age 27-29 seasons, when he averaged 90-91 mph. But his age 30 season, that velocity dropped down to 88, and remained there for two years. During those two years, Weaver became more of a mid-rotation starter. Then Weav's age 32-34 seasons, he dropped to 86, then 84, and the lowest ERA he managed to post was a 4.64.

Dallas Keuchel is entering his age 30 season. 

Now obviously Keuchel is a ground ball pitcher and Weaver was a fly ball pitcher, so the results won't be as stark, but for two pitchers whose rise to front of the rotation came at similar ages and similar velocity, and also saw that velocity drop by nearly the same amount at the same age, the similarities are DEFINITELY worth keeping an eye on. 

To me, I think Dallas Keuchel will be good for a 3.50 ERA for two more years, but then that velocity is likely going to drop down to 87, then lower and lower. In year three of his contract, he'll still probably be a solid back end starter, but years four and five, I don't think he's going to be major league caliber anymore. 

I wouldn't sign him for more than four years, and that's only if he knocked his AAV down considerably. I'd give him a three year offer that he almost assuredly would not accept. 

[ettin]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

I have a tough time believing that a writer from the Boston Globe would have any idea whether the Angels are truly interested. Pure speculation, I assume.

Actually Nick Cafardo is a well-respected and well-informed baseball writer, so in my opinion he should get more credence, he is not a hack from everything I've seen.

[Second Base]

15 minutes ago, ettin said:

Actually Nick Cafardo is a well-respected and well-informed baseball writer, so in my opinion he should get more credence, he is not a hack from everything I've seen.

Cafardo IS a hack. He's just a well-connected hack, so I think his assertion that the Angels are interested is probably accurate.

[Broad Street]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Cafardo IS a hack. He's just a well-connected hack, so I think his assertion that the Angels are interested is probably accurate.

Lol ok guy. "He's a successful writer, he's a hack"

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Kody Mac said:

Lol ok guy. "He's a successful writer, he's a hack"

Successful reporter. But yeah, a successful hack  

[Broad Street]

I don't word good. It's interesting (and it's not just you) but every time a reporter/analyst/writer is brought up (not named Jeff Fletcher), it's always "they're a hack" or "they're terrible"..... Why is that? Especially the Alden Gonzalez hate, he seems pretty decent.

[Lou]

according to a guy who actually follows the team and isn't 3,000 miles away, the rumor isn't true. 

who are you going to believe?

[Second Base]

19 minutes ago, Kody Mac said:

I don't word good. It's interesting (and it's not just you) but every time a reporter/analyst/writer is brought up (not named Jeff Fletcher), it's always "they're a hack" or "they're terrible"..... Why is that? Especially the Alden Gonzalez hate, he seems pretty decent.

I don't understand the Alden hate.....maybe because he left to cover the Dodgers? My mistrust of nationally renown reporters stems from their consequence free false rumors. How often are Nightengale, Rosenthal, Brown, Morosi,, etc....all wrong? 

Those guys dream up connections that make sense and then write articles claiming such. The only difference between them and you, is more often than not, a pedestal. 

The only guy that is right more often than not, is Jeff Passan. His recent work is a lot better than it used to be when his articles dropped with his Rangers fandom. He seems more balanced now. He even wrote just how wrong he was about Shohei Ohtani. How many of these guys are willing to publicize their mistakes?

I'd love to see Morosi or Rosenthal write about all the crap they get wrong versus what they actually get right. 

[Lou]

Passan wrote that article because he was getting hammered by everyone . 

[TroutField]

What a lame offseason so far.. Come on now Billy 

[Tank]

9 hours ago, beatlesrule said:

This team has given up on winning the division. They are going for the 2nd wild card. New York, Boston, Houston and Cleveland(unless they keep trading away everyone) are pretty much automatic locks to get a playoff birth. That leaves the Angels as a fringe 2nd wild card contender. Arte doesn't want to put the best team possible on the field. He seems very content with just seeing what happens all while he gets 3 million fans and sticking to his budget. The Luxury tax is 206 million next year. The Angels are well below that and Arte seems very comfortable there. To say he wants to win is a little misleading. He wants to remain competitive which is why we haven't seen any kind of rebuild even though we should have 2-3 years ago. As long as we have Trout, Simmons, Ohtani and some halfway decent pitching, the Angels will remain just want Moreno wants. Entertaining enough to watch but not likely to make any noise in October all while staying within his comfortable budget.

 

[Lou]

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

I don't understand the Alden hate.....maybe because he left to cover the Dodgers? My mistrust of nationally renown reporters stems from their consequence free false rumors. How often are Nightengale, Rosenthal, Brown, Morosi,, etc....all wrong? 

Those guys dream up connections that make sense and then write articles claiming such. The only difference between them and you, is more often than not, a pedestal. 

The only guy that is right more often than not, is Jeff Passan. His recent work is a lot better than it used to be when his articles dropped with his Rangers fandom. He seems more balanced now. He even wrote just how wrong he was about Shohei Ohtani. How many of these guys are willing to publicize their mistakes?

I'd love to see Morosi or Rosenthal write about all the crap they get wrong versus what they actually get right. 

Alden Gonzalez left Mlb.com to cover the Rams for ESPN. Now he covers LA sports in general, I believe. As far as I’m aware, he never covered the Dodgers after he left the Angels coverage. Could you be confusing him for Pedro Moura who covered the Angels for a while at the Times before shifting to the Dodgers? (There’s others who’ve made the switch also - Bill Plunkett, for instance - but Moura is the most recent.)

[m0nkey]

The only national guy I can't take seriously is Bob Nightengale.  

That said, I think he was the first one to break the Domingo Santana trade yesterday.  Other than that, I don't know how often he's right.

[jsnpritchett]

9 hours ago, Second Base said:

 

To me, I think Dallas Keuchel will be good for a 3.50 ERA for two more years...

Cool, so he'd fit right into the Angels rotation, given that all of their starters are going to be between 3.20-3.50.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Cool, so he'd fit right into the Angels rotation, given that all of their starters are going to be between 3.20-3.50.

I actually like Skaggs chances of getting under 3.5 next year.  He had a 2.62 ERA going into his 20th start.  Then 4 of his last 5 starts were clunkers.  I’m sure injury and fatigue set in.  Maybe I’m too optimistic but he’s got the best stuff on the staff, except possibly Harvey.

[The_Outrunner]

Dallas would be an awesome pick up! I'm just nervous if we keep trying to save money for next year,we won't keep trout. I just want to have that nice feeling that we'll be able to keep him for his career.