Winning feels a long ways away right now.

[Docwaukee]

The offense is actually pretty good.  Maybe we roll with Ward at 3b next year.  Maybe we upgrade catcher.  Maybe we trade for a solid 2bman.  Whatever they do is likely to be enough to get it done considering our prospect depth.  

But damn our pitching is awful.  Particularly the starters.  And where's the light?  

Second fewest number of innings by SP for the 2nd half of the year.  

A 6.11 era.  

I'll repeat. 

Our starters have a 6.11 era in the second half.  with the 2nd fewest innings in baseball.  

Right now our rotation is Heaney, Barria, Despaigne, Pena and ?????

Guys are injured.  ok fine.  Are we gonna get back Skaggs, Trop and Shoe?  are they gonna pitch a full season next year?  

How about Ohtani?  even if he comes back at full strength, that's 20 starts over the course of a full year.  

Is the pen going to save us?  with their -0.2 WAR in the second half even though they've pitched the most innings in the AL?  

Are we going to call up a bunch of rookies and watch them throw 180 innings next year?  

Are we going to gut the farm for a couple of starters?  

Someone map out how 2019 is going to be any better.  

 

[tdawg87]

This team - Scioscia = World Champions

[arch stanton]

Maybe trade for one, throw Meyer and the two rookies into the mix and hope you can keep 5 at a time healthy?

[Angelsjunky]

Alright, let's talk about getting from 75-80 wins to ~90 wins and a wildcard berth. That's a 10-15 win improvement.

Hitting

Let's start with the idea that the offense is good enough. It isn't Astros or Red Sox good, but it is at least good enough to be competitive. Trout, Upton, Simmons, Calhoun, and Ohtani form a strong core. Hopefully young complementary players like Fletcher, Ward, Fernandez, Hermosillo, Thaiss, Rengifo and Walsh can fill in the gaps. The one possible major signing would be Yasmani Grandal, or at least a solid catcher.

Recommendation: Revamp bench and complementary players with young players. Possibly sign Grandal or another catcher.

Now let's turn to the pitching staff. As you said, the rotation is virtually in shambles or, at best, is mediocre. The bullpen has been more solid over the last couple months, but is still far from "good." So in order for the pitching staff to rise to the level of the offense, we need improvement in both the rotation and bullpen.

Bullpen

We can look at the bullpen first because it is relatively simple. There are some good pieces--Parker, Anderson, Middleton, Buttrey, Jerez, Bedrosian, Anderson, Alvarez, Jewell--but it could use at least one elite pitcher. In my view, Jeurys Familia is the ideal candidate. But regardless of what Eppler actually does, he could greatly improve the bullpen by signing one elite reliever and possibly a second quality veteran, someone like David Robertson. But I don't want to get bogged down in details; the basic point is that the bullpen is relatively easy to improve, by building upon what the team already has and adding one or two quality arms.

Recommendation: 1-2 quality, veteran arms; preferably an elite closer ala Jeurys Familia and a good veteran ala David Robertson.

Rotation

The rotaiton is the tricky part. Let's start with what the Angels have:

Major leaguers: Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Jaime Barria, Felix Pena, Odrisamer Despaigne, Deck McGuire.

DL: Matt Shoemaker, Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez, Jake Lamb, Nick Tropeano.

Minor leaguers who could help: Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, Luis Pena, possibly eventually Patrick Sandoval.

OK, now let's arrange them by talent level:

#1-2 starter ("very good to ace"): Ohtani

#3-4 starters ("average to good"): Skaggs, Heaney, Barria; possibly Shoemaker, Meyer, Tropeano.

#5-6 starters ("filler"): F Pena, Despaigne, McGuire; possibly Ramirez, Lamb.

 

The question is, what is the best possible rotation that can be made of these parts? And is it good enough to get the team to 90 wins?

I'd say in a best-case scenario, it could be good enough but would require a lot of things: health from Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, and Barria to extend their innings and continue their development; at least one of Shoemaker and Meyer to come back to their best form, and one of the rookies to breakout. Or something like that.

But can the Angels go into 2019 with that plan? I'd say probably not. They probably need to sign at least one starter, and someone pretty good. They've got a ton of mid-rotation types, filler types, and prospects who could be mid-rotation or filler types as soon as next year. What they need is someone who is as good or better than Skaggs/Heaney and can slot behind Ohtani, even replace him as the staff ace if Ohtani needs TJS.

The problem is that there aren't many good options. Among free agents, the list is short: Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, and Charlie Morton are the only three free agents that seem to have a good or likely chance of being better than Skaggs and Heaney, and I'm not so sure about Keuchel.

Other more budget options include Nathan Eovaldi, Gio Gonzalez, Lance Lynn, Tyson Ross, and maybe a few others.

So the Angels can ignore Corbin's reduced velocity and go all in. Maybe he'd be happy to come back to the team that drafted to him. Morton is kind of interesting and might be less expensive than his performance would entail because of his age, but he is, but he is going to be 35. 3/$45M?

But we probably should assume that the Angels will go into 2019 with what they have plus a mid-rotation free agent or trade - not Corbin or Morton but someone lesser.

Recommendation: Go after Corbin, within reason; if not possible, go after Morton; if not, skip Keuchel and sign someone like Eovaldi or Lynn and hope for the best with the in-house candidates.

Will that be good enough to get to 90 wins? Maybe, but it is far from a sure thing or even a probability.

[kevinb]

Ya no offense the offense isn’t good either. Trout Ohtani Simmons Upton maybe Calhoun are the only above awful hitters on this team. 

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Ya no offense the offense isn’t good either. Trout Ohtani Simmons Upton maybe Calhoun are the only above awful hitters on this team. 

Great hitter (150+ wRC): Trout

Very good hitters (130-150 wRC+):  Ohtani

Good hitters (110-130 wRC+): Upton, Calhoun, Simmons

Mediocre to Average hitters (80-110 wRC+): Cozart, Pujols, Fletcher, Ward?, Fernandez?, Briceno?

The above is based not just upon what they've done this year, but what (I think) we can expect next year. For example, I think we can assume that Calhoun won't have another historically atrocious bad start and will hit more in alignment with his career average (107 wRC+)

So you've got two star hitters, three good hitters, and a bunch of mediocre to average. I'd still call that good overall. 

Now it could be improved upon. The Angels could sign Grandal and add another "good" hitter. Or maybe one of Cozart, Fletcher, Ward, Fernandez, or Rengifo has a good year. But barring a disaster, it should be at least pretty good.

[GrittyVeterans]

They need to spend quite a bit of money to be in playoff contention next season. I’m extremely skeptical they will do enough

they need a leadoff hitter and MOTO bat if Ohtani is going back to pitching.

the pitching needs to be completely revamped

 

[totdprods]

I'm setting 2019 expectations akin to that of the 2000 Angels. It's the start of something new, it's a year for transition and developing youth. If they get hot and compete, great, and I hope a few supplementary moves are made to help that goal, but nothing at the expense of the future. That doesn't mean they can't trade prospects - I feel we have some redundancy that allows some dealing. 

The farm has made such substantial strides this year that I'm buying into the Thaiss, Ward, Jones, Fletcher, Adell, Canning, Suarez years. We will have a new manager, Eppler will be extended. It's likely losing someone like Scioscia will lead to some growing pains - but I'm confident the next administration will be successful, and we're already seeing some of those efforts paying off in the minors. 

[Blarg]

They need to bench Pujols until he voluntarily retires. His career is over, he just needs to accept it. 

[arch stanton]

He's still around .800 in his DH ABs. Just let him DH the games Ohtani doesn't and keep him out of the field

[Angel Oracle]

9 minutes ago, Blarg said:

They need to bench Pujols until he voluntarily retires. His career is over, he just needs to accept it. 

He has been pretty bad this month.   It’s clear that he can’t play 140-150 games any more.  He should be limited to about 110-120 games (no more than 40 1B starts) in 2019, and then retire and collect his remaining $59 million in whatever way.

[arch stanton]

With Ohtani (235), Pujols, (194), and Trout (60) the Angels have a DH WAR of 1.0 which is equal to what Seattle gets from Cruz or Oakland gets from Davis. 1B is a  -2.0. That where they need to upgrade the offense

Edited August 27, 2018 by arch stanton

[UndertheHalo]

I think the Angels pitching fortunes could turn around very quickly with some luck in the health sphere and the introduction of even one good new arm.  Maybe that’s Canning or Suarez, maybe it’s someone external.  That’s not to say that it isn’t a problem right now, it definitely is.  The bullpen I’m less worried about.  There’s so much volatility with bullpens.  The Angels bullpen hasn’t been nearly as bad as some of the narrative here suggests.  Especially when considering the pressures heaped onto it by the teams other inadequacies.  It would be good to add a reliable 9th inning guy.  But otherwise I think Eppler has enough to assemble a solid to good bullpen.

Im much more concerned about the offense.  There’s a lot of uncertainty that we’ll be able to get even average production out of 2B, 3B, 1B, C and RF.   A lot needs to go right with the line up even if the Angels throw money at it. 

[UndertheHalo]

And the Pujols problem is a huge issue. Even being optimistic about his production makes him a slightly below average bat in the line up.  Realistically, he’s going to be much worse, especially as the next few seasons progress into late summer.  Perfect for potentially competeing for divisions or wild card berths.  Not only that, but he severely hampers the teams flexibility at 1B and DH.  Two traditionally easier places to get production.  It’s a complete disaster.  Potentially he’s taking AB’s from one of the teams best hitters regularly.  The team needs to move on.  They should have dealt with it this season.  Now they have to deal with this shit all of next year at least. 

Edited August 27, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Blarg]

This season was the test to see if he could get a dead cat bounce after not having off season surgery. There is a slight uptick from last season's numbers but the cat is dead. 

[totdprods]

Meh - Pujols will likely start as the regular 1B/DH again unless he severely injures himself again or has another awful month in September. 

I do think he'll start losing at-bats as 2019 goes though, transitioning more to a part-time 1B/DH and PH, especially if Thaiss, Fernandez, and Walsh stay in the org and hit well. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

They need a starter. Again. Which sucks because we need a bat.

We can say the offense is "fine", but the last two years weve seen trout missing time. So looking forward, we have to bank on trout not missing time and ohtani being able to hit lefties. Kole has rebounded nicely, but its a gamble to expect his recent surge to be who he is. I like simmons alot, and upton is very solid.

Pujols is still here, and will be here for too much longer.

Fletcher and ward can quietly round the lineup out and make is balanced, or they can sink us. Too early to tell. Catcher is likely the only place we can upgrade.

But as much as i want to add a real bat, the pitching staff (yet again) has to use up our available funds.

[fan_since79]

I can't shake this bad feeling about Ohtani as a starting pitcher.

He already has a history of elbow problems. I keep imagining him stepping off the mound in the 4th inning of some game in May, asking for the trainer, and disappearing.

Let him hit, let him hit, let him hit! Don't let him go under the Tommy John knife and be gone for a year and a half. With this team, it's bound to happen. Huge risk, in my opinion.

 

 

[zenmaster]

I was mildly depressed before reading this and now I'm extremely depressed.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

I can't shake this bad feeling about Ohtani as a starting pitcher.

He already has a history of elbow problems. I keep imagining him stepping off the mound in the 4th inning of some game in May, asking for the trainer, and disappearing.

Let him hit, let him hit, let him hit! Don't let him go under the Tommy John knife and be gone for a year and a half. With this team, it's bound to happen. Huge risk, in my opinion.

 

 

If he has to have TJ surgery he will be able to hit like 6-9 months later, especially if he’s simply a DH.  

[Docwaukee]

38 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If he has to have TJ surgery he will be able to hit like 6-9 months later, especially if he’s simply a DH.  

Actually think he might be ready to hit by spring but there's no precedent obviously.  

[mulwin444]

"Someone map out how 2019 is going to be any better."

Offense next year is pretty much set:

C) Arcia/Briceno/Free Agent

DH) Ohtani/Pujols

1B) Pujols

2B) Fletcher/Cozart

SS) Simmons/Cozart

3B) Cozart/Ward

LF) Upton

CF) Trout

RF) Calhoun

Bench: (Guessing) JMF, EY Jr

That's 13 guys of the 25 man.  They definitely need a 4th OF and back up C.  Maybe Ward and JMF shuffle between MLB and AAA because they have options an Cozart gets first crack at 3B but, due to the starting pitching, they may need to carry 13 relievers at first thus reducing the position players on the bench.

Overall, though, an offensive core built on Trout, Upton, Simmons, Ohtanoi and 2nd half Calhoun is pretty solid.  If Cozart can put up near .800 OPS, Briceno/Arcia can provide something at the back of the line-up and Ward and Fletcher can continue to develop, the offense won't be a problem.

The fact that Fletcher will replace Kinsler  (.239 .304 .710 OPS) means you won't see much of a change in the offensive output.  There won't be a defensive drop-off but Fletcher doesn't appear to walk much, have much speed or hit for much power  - he's basically Johnny Giavotella is he played great 2B defense.  

The bullpen, while not elite, has pretty good options in 2019 as opposed to what it had going into 2018.

Parker, Alvarez, and Bedrosian will likely carry over.  While not sexy, they had a positive output in the BP.  Jim Johnson will be gone but Anderson should be a fixture again, Taylor Cole, when used as a reliever, has been really good (1.59 ERA 0.765 WHIP 10.1 K/9), and both Jerez and Buttrey give them young, fresh arms with options with elite upside.  That's 7 solid arms with another 5 to 6 that could come from a combination of Noe Ramirez, Hansel Robles, Deck McGuire, and Jake Jewell with the rest filled out through whatever starters don't make the rotation, waiver pick-ups, and minor league promotions.  I think the BP will be better by virtue of the available talent in comparison from last season.

The biggest question mark is the rotation.

With Ohtani supposedly healthy, you are looking at another 6 man rotation with the likeliest candidates to get first crack being Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, Barria and Pena.  The other candidates would be Alex Meyer, Parker Bridwell, Suarez and Canning.  Again, much like last season, you have 9-10 candidates and a whole lot of question marks.

To improve the team, I think you need to sign a starter and use some of your minor league prospect depth to trade for a starter.  Skaggs' arm appears to be healthy and Heaney has made it through this season without issue so you have 2 guys that can make up the middle of the rotation with a ton of candidates for 5th and 6th but we need 2 or 3, maybe both, that can be paired with Ohtani at the top to give this team some length into the game so they are less dependent on their BP.  

If they can add some quality starters, I think the rest can fall into place and give them a shot at 90+ wins.   

 

[eligrba]

Ward does not seem to be ready. I am not sure he is in the 2019 picture, at this point.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, eligrba said:

Ward does not seem to be ready. I am not sure he is in the 2019 picture, at this point.

That's absurd.

[Docwaukee]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Alright, let's talk about getting from 75-80 wins to ~90 wins and a wildcard berth. That's a 10-15 win improvement.

Hitting

Let's start with the idea that the offense is good enough. It isn't Astros or Red Sox good, but it is at least good enough to be competitive. Trout, Upton, Simmons, Calhoun, and Ohtani form a strong core. Hopefully young complementary players like Fletcher, Ward, Fernandez, Hermosillo, Thaiss, Rengifo and Walsh can fill in the gaps. The one possible major signing would be Yasmani Grandal, or at least a solid catcher.

Recommendation: Revamp bench and complementary players with young players. Possibly sign Grandal or another catcher.

Now let's turn to the pitching staff. As you said, the rotation is virtually in shambles or, at best, is mediocre. The bullpen has been more solid over the last couple months, but is still far from "good." So in order for the pitching staff to rise to the level of the offense, we need improvement in both the rotation and bullpen.

Bullpen

We can look at the bullpen first because it is relatively simple. There are some good pieces--Parker, Anderson, Middleton, Buttrey, Jerez, Bedrosian, Anderson, Alvarez, Jewell--but it could use at least one elite pitcher. In my view, Jeurys Familia is the ideal candidate. But regardless of what Eppler actually does, he could greatly improve the bullpen by signing one elite reliever and possibly a second quality veteran, someone like David Robertson. But I don't want to get bogged down in details; the basic point is that the bullpen is relatively easy to improve, by building upon what the team already has and adding one or two quality arms.

Recommendation: 1-2 quality, veteran arms; preferably an elite closer ala Jeurys Familia and a good veteran ala David Robertson.

Rotation

The rotaiton is the tricky part. Let's start with what the Angels have:

Major leaguers: Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Jaime Barria, Felix Pena, Odrisamer Despaigne, Deck McGuire.

DL: Matt Shoemaker, Alex Meyer, JC Ramirez, Jake Lamb, Nick Tropeano.

Minor leaguers who could help: Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, Luis Pena, possibly eventually Patrick Sandoval.

OK, now let's arrange them by talent level:

#1-2 starter ("very good to ace"): Ohtani

#3-4 starters ("average to good"): Skaggs, Heaney, Barria; possibly Shoemaker, Meyer, Tropeano.

#5-6 starters ("filler"): F Pena, Despaigne, McGuire; possibly Ramirez, Lamb.

 

The question is, what is the best possible rotation that can be made of these parts? And is it good enough to get the team to 90 wins?

I'd say in a best-case scenario, it could be good enough but would require a lot of things: health from Ohtani, Skaggs, Heaney, and Barria to extend their innings and continue their development; at least one of Shoemaker and Meyer to come back to their best form, and one of the rookies to breakout. Or something like that.

But can the Angels go into 2019 with that plan? I'd say probably not. They probably need to sign at least one starter, and someone pretty good. They've got a ton of mid-rotation types, filler types, and prospects who could be mid-rotation or filler types as soon as next year. What they need is someone who is as good or better than Skaggs/Heaney and can slot behind Ohtani, even replace him as the staff ace if Ohtani needs TJS.

The problem is that there aren't many good options. Among free agents, the list is short: Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, and Charlie Morton are the only three free agents that seem to have a good or likely chance of being better than Skaggs and Heaney, and I'm not so sure about Keuchel.

Other more budget options include Nathan Eovaldi, Gio Gonzalez, Lance Lynn, Tyson Ross, and maybe a few others.

So the Angels can ignore Corbin's reduced velocity and go all in. Maybe he'd be happy to come back to the team that drafted to him. Morton is kind of interesting and might be less expensive than his performance would entail because of his age, but he is, but he is going to be 35. 3/$45M?

But we probably should assume that the Angels will go into 2019 with what they have plus a mid-rotation free agent or trade - not Corbin or Morton but someone lesser.

Recommendation: Go after Corbin, within reason; if not possible, go after Morton; if not, skip Keuchel and sign someone like Eovaldi or Lynn and hope for the best with the in-house candidates.

Will that be good enough to get to 90 wins? Maybe, but it is far from a sure thing or even a probability.

I went through this prior to my OP almost verbatim to what you've done.  Which is why I posted what I did.  When you first started you were probably more optimistic and then as you went on it was like 'uh.  where are the wins gonna come from'.  amIright?  

the FA market for starters is dookie.  Corbin seems risky to begin with and on top of that, you're gonna have to beat his hometown yankees in money to woo him away.  Didn't someone say Morton would only go back to the 'stros or retire?  Keuchel is the epitome of the FA pitcher not to sign for big money.  

the next tier down is russian roulette.  as are a ton of the trade candidates frankly.  

Ohtani is a coin flip right now.  Barria could take a step forward but more likely settles in as a solid #4.  I'm getting the same vibe from Heaney as well.  Skaggs is still hitting the DL 3-4 times a year.  Who are Trop and Pena?  likely back of the rotation guys who might give you 5 innings per start.  Are we really going to pencil in Meyer at this point?  

Canning and Suarez might chip a bit, but best case they're each 120 ip and an era in the mid 3's.  Don't get me wrong, that would be great.  

We went into this year rubbing the rabbits foot for health.  We are likely going to do the same thing again.