How many home runs does Trout end his career with?

[GrittyVeterans]

He's at 229 after today. Seems pretty obvious he'll get to at least 450 since he's barely about to turn 27. 

[tdawg87]

Threeve

[failos]

I don't really want to think about the end of Trout's career.

[kevinb]

6 minutes ago, failos said:

I don't really want to think about the end of Trout's career.

Why?

[maximus p]

he's got 229 in his age 27 season.  Over the next ten years he should be able to get 350+, right?

I voted for 551-600

[CaliAngel]

Doesn't matter, he's got the dreamiest eyes...

I would definitely resist at first, but if he was persistent, I would probably give in a little bit...depending on how persistent he was...

[Taylor]

At least 230

[gurn67]

Of the 8 guys who had more home runs than Trout at age 26, all 8 hit at least 500. What's interesting is that of none of the 3 guys who hit 700+ are in the top 10 in home runs at 26.

[DJO]

Since it isn't a lock he will be hitting all these home runs in an Angel uniform I find the question slightly depressing .

If he stays in an Angel uniform and they don't get support around him , protecting him ? He will walk 160 times a year and be denied an incredible amount of swings over the course of a career . Depressing aren't I ? You should hear me at parties . 

How many homers will he hit if he walks 1,700 --2,000 times in his career ? The equivalent of standing in the batters box not swinging for three seasons ...

[Dick B Back]

3 hours ago, gurn67 said:

Of the 8 guys who had more home runs than Trout at age 26, all 8 hit at least 500. What's interesting is that of none of the 3 guys who hit 700+ are in the top 10 in home runs at 26.

Of those 3, one started out as a pitcher and one... you know... 

[T.G.]

This thread has jinx written all over it.

[AngelsFanSince86]

I'd say he'll hit an average of 40/year until age 33 (including this year).  Sometimes more, sometimes less. That would put him at about 520. If he's healthy he could average 25 until he's 38 or so. That would be another 125 and would put him at 645. It's possible he'd do more in his later years and also likely he'll deal with some sort of injury at some point so I'll go with around 600, but go for the over.

[CanadianHalo]

Once you take into account the dimensions of Yankee field he may end up hitting a lot more during the tail end of his career than most 

[laagamer]

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Threeve

Cofeve

[ten ocho recon scout]

10 hours ago, Taylor said:

At least 230

Are you really going to make jokes like that with our luck????? Dont tempt the gods!

[Hubs]

He has a .569 Slg Pct in his career, before his prime (27-32) years.

It's been in the .620's the last two seasons, should he keep this up over the next 6 years, a .600 slg pct would translate to 40-50 HR a year for 6 years = 240-300 home runs. That would put him over 500 by age 32. With arguably 8-10 seasons left.

He could finish as the all time Home Run Leader.

[Hubs]

FYI, Hank Aaron has a career .555 slugging percent, and played 23 seasons in the Majors. He never hit more than 47 HR, which he did at age 37.

Willy Mays is fifth all time in HR at 660, behind Bonds, Aaron, Ruth, and A-Rod. He never hit more than 52, and finished with a .557 career slugging percentage.

[bloodbrother]

12 hours ago, maximus p said:

he's got 229 in his age 27 season.  Over the next ten years he should be able to get 350+, right?

I voted for 551-600

age 26 season*

Anyway, I voted for 601-650. He's gonna be halfway to 500 likely around mid-May of next year in what'll be his age 27 season. Puts him on track to reach 500 around his early 30's. Assuming he plays deep into his 30's, I can see another 100 or so HR's to round out his career. I'll guess he hits somewhere around 610 HR's and he'll pair it with 300-350 SB

[disarcina]

I said 501 -550.

A key difference between today's players and all the legends who's numbers they are chasing -- is that back in the day -- almost every MLB player including the big stars - needed to find employment once their playing days were over -- and, of course, it didn't pay as well as playing pro ball and a lot of the players never worked outside of baseball -- so most players never quite really 'retired' of their own accord -- they played until they got released and/or could not physically play anymore -- remember Willie Mays in the post season with the 1973 Mets? It was pretty sad.

So today's players, where everyone - including the bench depth MIF, become millionaires -- there's really no incentive to keep playing -- so they retire after play fewer years -- a small town home town kid like Trout could walk away in a few years and be perfectly content,  he's set for life now.  I think he'll get 500 and then head for the exit leaving another potential 200 home runs on the table.