Fangraphs: The Angels Have Won the Offseason

[bloodbrother]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-angels-have-won-the-offseason/

Angels are the champions!

[AngelArcher]

When is the parade?

 

[Troll Daddy]

 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

 

this doesn't count as both of you being in the same place at the same time.  

[Tyler]

Damn straight! 

[DMVol]

Uh oh....kiss of death....

[zenmaster]

Now if we can handle the on-season 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Im gonna catch flack for this. But i think i would have still preferred to trade for gordon (for 2B, not CF), and sign Moustakas.

Id probably be dead wrong, and I see the upside of what weve done. Id just be more comfortable with a true leadoff guy (gordon for his speed, but hernandez would have been better) and another MOTO bat.

Anyway, if things go our way, weve definetely improved. And the low cost of the makeover is impressive as hell.

[IheartLA]

[nando714]

Print the playoff tickets 

[Troll Daddy]

This can’t be good 

[UndertheHalo]

Last time I checked winning the off season doesn’t mean a whole lot.  

We’ll see how it goes.  We’re seemingly a lot better today then we were on opening day 2017 if you assume relative health for our pitchers.  Everything depends on the pitchers.  If it works out the team can win the division.  If guys like Richards, Heaney, and Skaggs don’t have good years or can’t stay healthy we’re probably not gonna be much better then the last couple of years.  It’s that simple really. 

Edited December 16, 2017 by UndertheHalo

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

Uh oh....kiss of death....

Absolutely!  I remember the last time we won the offseason.

[Ohtaniland]

16 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Absolutely!  I remember the last time we won the offseason.

Percy was there taking it all in. Miss that guy. 

[JustATroutFan]

I thought the Angels had a great offseason in 2011 when they signed Pujols and Wilson to big deals on the same day. We'll have to wait how they perform when it counts.

[Warfarin]

7 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

I thought the Angels had a great offseason in 2011 when they signed Pujols and Wilson to big deals on the same day. We'll have to wait how they perform when it counts.

Yeah, we'll have to wait and see.  The beauty of this offseason so far though is with the exception of Cozart, none of these moves can really actually backfire.  Ohtani will be paid the minimum.  Maintan and Soto are essentially like free draft picks.  Kinsler has a one year deal and was traded for two lotto tickets.  Cozart is the only one who has a contract that we could be "stuck with" if he ends up randomly flaming out.  Big difference between acquiring short-term deal players vs signing monster 10 year contracts.

[JustATroutFan]

45 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, we'll have to wait and see.  The beauty of this offseason so far though is with the exception of Cozart, none of these moves can really actually backfire.  Ohtani will be paid the minimum.  Maintan and Soto are essentially like free draft picks.  Kinsler has a one year deal and was traded for two lotto tickets.  Cozart is the only one who has a contract that we could be "stuck with" if he ends up randomly flaming out.  Big difference between acquiring short-term deal players vs signing monster 10 year contracts.

I don't know why but I kind of feel this could be a re-run of 2011. As we remember, the Angels got Pujols and Wilson on the same day that offseason and I felt really confident that both guys were going to be studs with the team. Pujols had a great career with the Cardinals and Wilson was great the last 2 years with the Rangers and that is despite pitching in a little league ballpark. This offseason is filled with guys trying to prove themselves that they can either 1) bounce back from a below average offensive season (Kinsler's case) 2) prove that his only good year, which was also his walk year wasn't a fluke (Cozart) 3) prove that he can perform in the major leagues (Otani). You didn't have those concerns with either Pujols or Wilson.

[ettin]

3 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

This can’t be good 

Hey a year and a half ago you said the Angels would be competitive in 2017 and they were. Now you said this off-season they can improve and compete too. You can't have it both ways!

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Last time I checked winning the off season doesn’t mean a whole lot.  

We’ll see how it goes.  We’re seemingly a lot better today then we were on opening day 2017 if you assume relative health for our pitchers.  Everything depends on the pitchers.  If it works out the team can win the division.  If guys like Richards, Heaney, and Skaggs don’t have good years or can’t stay healthy we’re probably not gonna be much better then the last couple of years.  It’s that simple really. 

Downer post.

But agree fully. Everything this year, and honestly the next 3, hinges on if our pitchers come back to st least average. Im not expecting best case scenario. Ill be happy if those guys are just average, but hopefully theyll be better than that.

If they have major setbacks, we go back to scrambling to fill the rotation with peanuts.

[eligrba]

I would agree that the Angels improved the most this off season, but I am not sure anyone knows who actually wins the off season until the season plays out.

[Warfarin]

8 hours ago, JustATroutFan said:

I don't know why but I kind of feel this could be a re-run of 2011. As we remember, the Angels got Pujols and Wilson on the same day that offseason and I felt really confident that both guys were going to be studs with the team. Pujols had a great career with the Cardinals and Wilson was great the last 2 years with the Rangers and that is despite pitching in a little league ballpark. This offseason is filled with guys trying to prove themselves that they can either 1) bounce back from a below average offensive season (Kinsler's case) 2) prove that his only good year, which was also his walk year wasn't a fluke (Cozart) 3) prove that he can perform in the major leagues (Otani). You didn't have those concerns with either Pujols or Wilson.

Those are definitely some valid points.  There's a lot of euphoria that we have "Won the Offseason!", but winning the offseason means, IMO, that we have transformed ourselves into a 86-88 win team right now.  Is that a sure fire guaranteed playoff team?  No, it's not at all.  Is it possible some of those guys don't perform to expectations?  Yeah, it definitely is, and I'd say it's even probable at least one isn't.

The key thing though is incremental progress without tying yourself down to long-term diminishing returns.  Even if Kinsler regresses, I cannot imagine any situation in which he wouldn't be a significant improvement over Espinoza.  Cozart might end up hitting worse than Valbuena did last year, but I've got to imagine his defense will be light years ahead, thus making him an improvement to some varying degree.  Ohtani taking some ABs from Pujols, who was rated the worst player in baseball last year, also has to be an improvement to some degree.  Pitchers are likely to get hurt again too, but I have to say we had an amazing confluence of injuries last year, so even a slight improvement in pitching health will improve our chances too.

Again, this is not to say we are now a juggernaut team.  I personally think it's very unlikely we can compete against the Astros this year, but I do think we are building a team that will, very soon, be a championship team.

[Inside Pitch]

9 hours ago, JustATroutFan said:

I don't know why but I kind of feel this could be a re-run of 2011. As we remember, the Angels got Pujols and Wilson on the same day that offseason and I felt really confident that both guys were going to be studs with the team. Pujols had a great career with the Cardinals and Wilson was great the last 2 years with the Rangers and that is despite pitching in a little league ballpark. This offseason is filled with guys trying to prove themselves that they can either 1) bounce back from a below average offensive season (Kinsler's case) 2) prove that his only good year, which was also his walk year wasn't a fluke (Cozart) 3) prove that he can perform in the major leagues (Otani). You didn't have those concerns with either Pujols or Wilson.

The difference of course is they spent 331.5 million that year .vs 49 million so far this year...   Also, nobody is expecting inner circle HOF numbers from Kinsler or Cozart -- we just want them to be better than the -1.0 fWAR we got from Espinsoa and Escobar.   If they both just come in with 2.0 fWAR seasons it's a 5 fWAR swing.

This is more a case of how truly bad the two positions were last year than how awesome the two guys coming in might be.    Now they just need AP to play to his 2016 numbers and not 2017.

[Inside Pitch]

30 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Again, this is not to say we are now a juggernaut team.  I personally think it's very unlikely we can compete against the Astros this year, but I do think we are building a team that will, very soon, be a championship team.

The Angels will likely be looking up at the Astros for as long as it takes for Houston to have to start paying players.   

They ended last year with their biggest payroll ever and are currently looking at a payroll in the 150 million range after arbitration -- estimated at north of 47 million dollars..  They have 6 pending FA's at the end of this year including 2/5ths of their rotation.  They can cut loose McCaan to free up some money but they will also have four 3rd year arbitration eligible players including Springer in 2019.   

The high costs of success will start working against Houston very soon... just about the same time the Angels should expect the farm to start kicking in with players...

Eppler has done an amazing job.

[Stradling]

18 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The difference of course is they spent 331.5 million that year .vs 49 million so far this year...   Also, nobody is expecting inner circle HOF numbers from Kinsler or Cozart -- we just want them to be better than the -1.0 fWAR we got from Espinsoa and Escobar.   If they both just come in with 2.0 fWAR seasons it's a 5 fWAR swing.

This is more a case of how truly bad the two positions were last year than how awesome the two guys coming in might be.    Now they just need AP to play to his 2016 numbers and not 2017.

If AP has 2016 numbers, which really weren’t that great, that’s another 3 win swing. Hell if he’s a 0 WAR player it’s a 2 win swing.  

[eaterfan]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

If AP has 2016 numbers, which really weren’t that great, that’s another 3 win swing. Hell if he’s a 0 WAR player it’s a 2 win swing.  

If AP puts up his 2016 numbers then it's basically like adding what we could have expected from adding Moustakas.

I don't think it will happen. But it would be a nice surprise.