Rumor Central: Angels preferred destination for Mike Moustakas?

[eaterfan]

37 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Ok, So the Angels aren't signing Manny Machado or Josh Donaldson in a year. Those guys are going to cost what Trout and Pujols do. 

Moustakas is the top free agent at 3B this offseason.

I'd like to see them try to address 3B this offseason instead of having a virtual black hole there along with one at 2B. 

We need offense, Moustakas will provide it, and may have a great year with a solid offensive team around him. And Kauffman isn't exactly a homer prone stadium, like Arizona or Colorado or Texas. More importantly, I think this may push Pujols to 5th or 6th, depending on what they do at 1st base. With Moustakas and Cozart or another leadoff friendly 2B option, the lineup would look much more complete.

Upton was a good first step, but I want two more solid bats preferably at 2nd and 3rd. And If they can get a solid bat at 1st too, I'm all for it.

Will he? If he's a 20 HR guy (more along his career norms) he's not bringing anything else to the table offensively and his defense has been steadily declining. I think there's a good chance he becomes a poor man's Trumbo over the next two years. 15-20 HRs and a .300 OBP along with bad defense at that point is going to kill us. Why not commit to Frazier for 1-2 years and if it doesn't work out then you can move on? If you are going to make a big commitment why not make a trade for Suarez, who is younger, and cheaper than Moustakas?  Everything about Mous is trending in the wrong direction except his HR total. And he's only had one season when his HR total justifies where the rest of his stats are heading.

Not having positional stability allows for more moves. Stop gaps aren't sexy, but look what happened with Maybin last season. He put up 1.8 WAR for us (exceeding his expected value based on contract) and his low salary allowed us to walk away when a real long term solution on a good contract became available. Had we been locked into him for 3 more years at more money we couldn't have gotten Upton.

BTW - For those of you saying Mous would give us a 2-3 win player and that's good enough, he's put up 2.0+ WAR exactly twice in his career. And last season - which everyone seems to love - he put up 1.8 WAR. The same WAR total that Maybin put up for us and we were looking to upgrade that spot. And Maybin did it for $9 million.

[Mark68]

I'm a firm no on Moustakas. I believe last year was a mirage caused by the juiced ball and we'll end up hating the contract.

I also think that the money that Moose would cost can be better utilized elsewhere (getting a cheaper 3B option AND getting a 2B AND a pitcher who can give us reliable and stable production).

I believe the opportunity cost to get Moose would be prohibitive.

[eaterfan]

17 minutes ago, Zardawg16 said:

It’s almost like people fault Arte for spending money, and fault him if he doesn’t. Lose, Lose situation here.. Moose would be a great addition to the ball club, that solidifies the middle of our lineup, and the gaping hole we had at 3rd for 10+ years, for a fraction of the price of a Machado or Arenado. 

I really like the direction the club is going. I've never faulted Arte for not spending money and have defended the building of the farm and keeping draft picks the last two seasons. I wish we would have done more of it.

[Vlad27Trout27]

What about Jeffery Marte? Felt like he never really got a chance last year due him being in a similar cases as Cron ( Platooning with Bat-flip boy).

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Before this past year, he was basically a Valbuena clone. The 38 homeruns in a contract year when the balls are juiced screams fluke to me. Not to mention, Angels Stadium is where LHH go to die. He's not hitting 30+ homers with the Angels.

Defensively, he's an upgrade over Valbuena for sure but "gold glove caliber" is a stretch considering he's never won a GG and the stats point to him being an average-to slightly above average third baseman. Good arm, glove of stone, moderate range. 

Garret Anderdon and Jim Edmonds sure did suck here.

[totdprods]

45 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Will he? If he's a 20 HR guy (more along his career norms) he's not bringing anything else to the table offensively and his defense has been steadily declining. I think there's a good chance he becomes a poor man's Trumbo over the next two years. 15-20 HRs and a .300 OBP along with bad defense at that point is going to kill us. Why not commit to Frazier for 1-2 years and if it doesn't work out then you can move on? If you are going to make a big commitment why not make a trade for Suarez, who is younger, and cheaper than Moustakas?  Everything about Mous is trending in the wrong direction except his HR total. And he's only had one season when his HR total justifies where the rest of his stats are heading.

Let me preface this by saying Moose is not my first choice, or even my second or third, and I think he will be massively overpaid and should only be an Angel by a result of happy circumstance. 

There are a few things that Moustakas has been trending upwards with if you feel positively about current trends with launch angles and worrying about striking out less. 
To me, that reads like a fancy way of 'swinging for the fences a lot more' and isn't anything that radical, but it's apparently a big deal and the way a lot of hitters have 're-invented' themselves. If all of that sounds like a good thing to you, then Moose may be your guy. He was only 26 when he had arguably his best year yet in 2015, and has now had a newfound power surge at 28.

Using mostly 2014 through 2017 numbers unless noted - discounting 2016 because of injury...
His ISO has trended way up (.131 in '13, .149 in '14, .186 in '15, way up to .249 in '17)
His HR% has nearly doubled...3% in '14, 3.6% in '15, 15.7% in '17
His XBH% has trended up... 7.4% in '13 and '14, up to 9.3% in '15, up to 10.4% in '17
His BB% went down, significantly, to a career low (7% in '14 and '15, down to 5.7% in '17)
His line drive % has steadily increased...22% in '13, 24% in '14, 25% in '15, 27% in '17
Here's a big one...his 1st pitch swinging % jumped a huge amount - he had been averaging 23.5% his career, and it jumped way above the MLB average to 34% in '17. 
He swung on a 3-0 count 11 times - in his career, he had only done that 18 times before.
His strike looking percentage plummeted - 24% over his career down to 17%. His strikes swinging jumped from 14% to 17%.
His swinging at strikes percentage went up 83% from a career average of 75%..

Now that's mostly just a stream of incremental numbers, but if you really look over them in a big picture, it seems to indicate to me that there Moose has a newfound confidence in his approach. His walks aren't increasing because he's become more aggressive (he also saw fewer pitches per PA in '17 than ever before) and swinging first pitch far often but he's also making harder contact than ever before, hitting more home runs, and also striking out more. I don't think that bodes well for him aging, but I don't think he's a total lost cause for power and even for the walks department. Another plus is he really doesn't strike out too much.

His 2017 line is eye-catching because of the homers and because of how recent it is, but his '15 line was easily the best of his career.
In 147 games, .284/.348/.470/.817, 119 OPS+ with 34 doubles, 22 home runs, 43 walks to only 76 strikeouts. 

If Moustakas can find a way to blend his '15 discipline and pitch recognition and patience and contact with his newfound confidence, aggressiveness, and power, then he actually could become a pretty special player for a few seasons. Those two years averaged out together give you... .278/.331/.496/.826, 30 doubles, 30 home runs, 40 walks, 85 strikeouts.

Now...if it's worth the financial risk is the question. 
 

[eligrba]

I prefer to put my faith in Eppler's ability to draft than Moose. I think that Eppler will draft a player that will be better for the future than Moose will be for the present.

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Garret Anderdon and Jim Edmonds sure did suck here.

That's a great post that is obviously exactly what I said.

[totdprods]

24 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

What about Jeffery Marte? Felt like he never really got a chance last year due him being in a similar cases as Cron ( Platooning with Bat-flip boy).

On the verge of being non-tendered or waiver claimed, more than likely.
If we do stick with Valbuena at 3B, I could see Marte as the back-up corner infielder next year.

[Tank]

for me it's a question of whether or not he can help us win, especially during the trout window.

i'd be willing to sign moose for a reasonable contract in the 15-20 mil range and for about 3 years with a club option. not interested in longer terms or higher money, and if he wants it, let him get it elsewhere.

[WeaverFever]

My god do we have some penny pinchers in here. Do you guys have a problem with bringing in a guy who helps us win games? Or a 2nd round pick who may or may not turn out, with a ceiling as high as the guy we are trying to get... (most likely) 

[eaterfan]

Just now, Zardawg16 said:

My god do we have some penny pinchers in here. Do you guys have a problem with bringing in a guy who helps us win games? Or a 2nd round pick who may or may not turn out, with a ceiling as high as the guy we are trying to get... (most likely) 

Last year he put up a 1.8 WAR. Todd Frazier put up 1.6. Maybe it would be smarter to sign Todd Frazier and spend that money on pitching, 2nd base, or first base.

[Erstad Grit]

I can't remember last time this board was this split.  Were the hr a fluke or did moose figure something out? I love baseball.  

[oater]

6 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

We've known for a couple years that Moustakas has wanted to be back in So-Cal. The fact that he's just now reaching free agency only creates this narrative.

Eppler has been extremely hesitant to sacrifice draft picks (and with good reason, have you seen his track record with the draft?) for free agents. It just isn't how you build a farm system.

In the mean time, he's traded pitching prospects that weren't his to begin with (Newcomb, Ellis, Alcantara, Long, Rodriguez) to acquire the talent he needs. Billy does this because of his confidence in finding quality pitching on the waiver wire, which he's proven adept at.

It isn't as if we won't pay the price.  Eppler basically paid this price for Upton, with Long and Rodriguez essentially being the equivalent of free agent compensation and the 5/106 Upton got from us.

It just has to be the right player.

If we sign Moustakas, we forfeit our second round pick, which in the last three years has been Jahmai Jones, Brandon Marsh and Griffin Canning. 

I think I'll take the prospect and the money and allocate it somewhere for a player with a better OBP than .310.

And the second round picks the 5 years previously were:

• Joe Gatto
• Hunter Green
• RJ Alvarez
• Nick Maronde
• Daniel Tillman

I am not a big Moustakas fan, but he would represent an upgrade at 3B, so the question is whether his contract is reasonable.  For 4 yrs and $48M, I say go for it.  For 5 years and $90M, I say pass.  For 5 years and $65M, I could go either way.

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I can't remember last time this board was this split.  Were the hr a fluke or did moose figure something out? I love baseball.  

I think 38 is a fluke, but he's making harder contact and getting more lift. Anaheim may hurt him a bit, but I think he can still drop 30-35 doubles and 20-25 homers for the first couple seasons, maybe hit 30 once if things break right.

He's a big dude entering his prime so I don't think power is what we should be concerned about. The bigger factors for his value will be 1) if his defense can maintain or bounce back and 2) if he can corral his plate discipline again - either by striking out less or walking a little more.

[nando714]

Moose vs the Marine layer 

game over 

[eaterfan]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I think 38 is a fluke, but he's making harder contact and getting more lift. Anaheim may hurt him a bit, but I think he can still drop 30-35 doubles and 20-25 homers for the first couple seasons, maybe hit 30 once if things break right.

He's a big dude entering his prime so I don't think power is what we should be concerned about. The bigger factors for his value will be 1) if his defense can maintain or bounce back and 2) if he can corral his plate discipline again - either by striking out less or walking a little more.

What do you think the odds of either or both of those things happening? Because if he just maintains where he was last season as far as discipline and defense and drops to 25 HRs he's around a 1.3 WAR player. 

Everyone in this thread is basically saying we haven't had a good third baseman since Figgins, but honestly, if Moustakas doesn't stop the declines in his plate discipline and defense he'll be a very comparable player to Escobar was in 2016 (1.6 WAR). Imagine being locked into that for 4-5 years.

[Second Base]

27 minutes ago, oater said:

And the second round picks the 5 years previously were:

• Joe Gatto
• Hunter Green
• RJ Alvarez
• Nick Maronde
• Daniel Tillman

I am not a big Moustakas fan, but he would represent an upgrade at 3B, so the question is whether his contract is reasonable.  For 4 yrs and $48M, I say go for it.  For 5 years and $90M, I say pass.  For 5 years and $65M, I could go either way.

You're talking about a completely different era with a different GM, different scouts and different scouting director. Right here, right now, our second round picks are at a completely different level. 

All three may be top 100 prospects next year.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Well since we've got Upton, that's already a boost to our lineup, I'm expecting Kole to rebound and Simmons to continue improving. VALUBENA did struggle last year  it he still did hit 20+he, there is enough lower in our lineup, that we do not need to get moose, but we should be worried is adding a few guys that can get on base for our power hitter. A guy like Cesar Herendez or Niel Walker. Than after fixing three hole we can come back and worry about 3rd.

Side note.

Would Trop, Dusening, and Pardes get Herendez?

[ten ocho recon scout]

53 minutes ago, nando714 said:

Moose vs the Marine layer 

game over 

Sounds like a childrens book

[JustATroutFan]

Angels will regret it if they sign Moose to a big contract. He is a nice player but no way is he going to live up to a big contract.   Especially with the bat. Those 38 home run were a big fluke. Came during a season when stupid MLB decided to juice the baseballs.

[Hubs]

Explain to me how someone who puts the ball in play nearly 4 in 5 times at the plate has a plate discipline problem? He strikes out a bit more last year than in 15, and he's more likely to be somewhere in the middle. 40 walks and 85 strike outs? Not the best ratio but he's not Mark Trumbo who strikes out twice as much and may not even walk that much.

Moose is the best free agent 3B out there and he's a lefty. What is wrong here? People need to open their minds and get past the one year he had a .314 OBP. He also had a .800 plus OPS last year for the third year in a row. How many Angels had an .800 OPS last year? Trout and Upton. That's it. So maybe he would be considered an upgrade. 

And the Angels have money to spend, so this year i think they spend it. Offensive FA shopping spree, here we come.

[tomsred]

19 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

Angels will regret it if they sign Moose to a big contract. He is a nice player but no way is he going to live up to a big contract.   Especially with the bat. Those 38 home run were a big fluke. Came during a season when stupid MLB decided to juice the baseballs.

Maybe MLB will try to juice the baseball even more next year, home runs are good for business.

[eaterfan]

24 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Explain to me how someone who puts the ball in play nearly 4 in 5 times at the plate has a plate discipline problem? He strikes out a bit more last year than in 15, and he's more likely to be somewhere in the middle. 40 walks and 85 strike outs? Not the best ratio but he's not Mark Trumbo who strikes out twice as much and may not even walk that much.

Moose is the best free agent 3B out there and he's a lefty. What is wrong here? People need to open their minds and get past the one year he had a .314 OBP. He also had a .800 plus OPS last year for the third year in a row. How many Angels had an .800 OPS last year? Trout and Upton. That's it. So maybe he would be considered an upgrade. 

And the Angels have money to spend, so this year i think they spend it. Offensive FA shopping spree, here we come.

OPS isn't a great stat. It overvalues the worth of slugging and undervalues OBP. He put up a 1.8 WAR while hitting 38 homers. If his homers decrease, likely for a lefty moving to Anaheim, he becomes a below average 3rd baseman. Why would you want to be locked into that long term?

[CanadianHalo]

34 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Explain to me how someone who puts the ball in play nearly 4 in 5 times at the plate has a plate discipline problem? He strikes out a bit more last year than in 15, and he's more likely to be somewhere in the middle. 40 walks and 85 strike outs? Not the best ratio but he's not Mark Trumbo who strikes out twice as much and may not even walk that much.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-biggest-change-in-approach-that-weve-seen/