Rumor Central: Angels preferred destination for Mike Moustakas?

[totdprods]

18 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-biggest-change-in-approach-that-weve-seen/

Wow that just about summed up all the percentages I posted a few posts up, even concluding with the same "is it good or bad? Don't know but it's a difference" conclusion.

I'm still not sold on the guy but there is enough going on beneath the surface for me to be mildly interested still, but has to be at a good price and fit into a greater context.

 

[Inside Pitch]

18 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

I can't remember last time this board was this split.  Were the hr a fluke or did moose figure something out? I love baseball.  

There seem to be two camps.  Those that are putting a high value on his HR totals and those that are putting greater weight in the predictive stats.   

The HR totals last year were highly influenced by what even MLB had admitted were juiced baseballs -- people are seemingly glossing over what really is a pretty significant "issue".   At the same time, we have no clue of MLB is going to switch back to the previous balls or try to milk the HRs in some attempt to win over disgruntled NFL fans..   Meanwhile the argument against what the predictive stats are pointing towards is that maybe players knew and he went up there trying to hit HRs thus impacting those other other predictive numbers -- we really don't have any clue and it's not something that people should dismiss either..   What I do know....  normally, a career worst walk rate and a spike in K rate are not things you want to invest in --- there is some ugly there.

He is IMO one of the harder guys to peg.  His having been hurt the previous year after a very good 2015 season only makes him harder to predict.    Until we hear actual numbers from him or the marketplace as to what he might get, we have no idea how big a risk or possible value he might be.

 

 

[oater]

3 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

You're talking about a completely different era with a different GM, different scouts and different scouting director. Right here, right now, our second round picks are at a completely different level. 

All three may be top 100 prospects next year.

Ric Wilson was the scouting director from 2011 through 2016.  So, no.

[Second Base]

47 minutes ago, oater said:

Ric Wilson was the scouting director from 2011 through 2016.  So, no.

But with a different GM calling the shots with different scouts and crosscheckers.. So yes.

[Billy_Ball]

[oater]

52 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

But with a different GM calling the shots with different scouts and crosscheckers.. So yes.

Jeff Malinoff was also the national cross-checker through 2016.  So:

Jones was drafted when Jerry D. was GM, Ric Wilson was scouting director and Jeff Malinoff was national cross-checker.

Marsh was drafted when Eppler was GM, Wilson was scouting director and Malinoff was national cross-checker.

Canning was drafted when Eppler was GM, Swanson was scouting director and Jason Smith was the national cross-checker.

Of course Canning hasn't pitched an inning of professional ball and dropped in the draft due to medical concerns.  He may end up being a great player, but IMO it is far too early to pronounce the "new regime" as being vastly better than Ric Wilson and Jeff Malinoff.  

[eligrba]

5 hours ago, oater said:

Jeff Malinoff was also the national cross-checker through 2016.  So:

Jones was drafted when Jerry D. was GM, Ric Wilson was scouting director and Jeff Malinoff was national cross-checker.

Marsh was drafted when Eppler was GM, Wilson was scouting director and Malinoff was national cross-checker.

Canning was drafted when Eppler was GM, Swanson was scouting director and Jason Smith was the national cross-checker.

Of course Canning hasn't pitched an inning of professional ball and dropped in the draft due to medical concerns.  He may end up being a great player, but IMO it is far too early to pronounce the "new regime" as being vastly better than Ric Wilson and Jeff Malinoff.  

I have no idea who did what concerning draft picks. I also do not know if the problem is the draft or development but the Angels have historically been bad. 

[Troll Daddy]

I read that his dream destination is the Angels. So a team friendly contract may workout for the Angels. 

[Erstad Grit]

10 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

There seem to be to camps.  Those that are putting a high value on his HR totals and those that are putting greater weight in the predictive stats.   

The HR totals last year were highly influenced by what even MLB had admitted were juiced baseballs -- people are seemingly glossing over what really is a pretty significant "issue".   At the same time, we have no clue of MLB is going to switch back to the previous balls or try to milk the HRs in some attempt to win over disgruntled NFL fans..   Meanwhile the argument against what the predictive stats are pointing towards is that maybe players knew and he went up there trying to hit HRs thus impacting those other other predictive numbers -- we really don't have any clue and it's not something that people should dismiss either..   What I do know....  normally, a career worst walk rate and a spike in K rate are not things you want to invest in --- there is some ugly there.

He is IMO one of the harder guys to peg.  His having been hurt the previous year after a very good 2015 season only makes him harder to predict.    Until we hear actual numbers from him or the marketplace as to what he might get, we have no idea how big a risk or possible value he might be.

 

 

He was still one of top hr hitters.  If the balls were juiced, they were juiced for everyone not just moose.

[Mark68]

14 hours ago, Zardawg16 said:

My god do we have some penny pinchers in here. Do you guys have a problem with bringing in a guy who helps us win games? Or a 2nd round pick who may or may not turn out, with a ceiling as high as the guy we are trying to get... (most likely) 

He will be overpaid by someone. I would much rather it be someone else.

There are many holes that need to be filled on this team, so signing Moustakas to a large contract will most likely preclude us from being able to spread the money around to fill all the holes. It can be done relatively cheaply IF we don't budget 90% of those funds to signing someone who will most likely disappoint.

It's not that we're being penny pinchers...it's about using the funds wisely. Upton was a wiser investment than Moustakas, IMO. But now that Upton is locked up, we need to look at where improvements can be made across the board with the funds that are available.

[JustATroutFan]

11 hours ago, tomsred said:

Maybe MLB will try to juice the baseball even more next year, home runs are good for business.

Except for pitchers though.

[Stradling]

I have no idea if his price is going to go down or not because this place is where I get most of my baseball news and rumors.  I can tell you that we are in a bubble on this website, for good or for bad, and so while we might think his price is coming down because the narrative we created here is he is too risky or the market is limited, that may not at all be the case.  All that being said, the Angels and Dodgers would get him for the least amount of money, simply because he does want to be closer to home.  It certainly doesn’t appear the Dodgers have room for him with Turner, so it very well could be the Angels.  However, if Eppler doesn’t value his skill set, or like many here, think the money could be allocated better it won’t really matter.  I think if his price drops enough, he will probably be an Angel.  

My personal opinion is I wouldn’t trade Calhoun to free up the cash it takes to get a guy like Mous.  He’s an improvement and I have a lot more faith in him than I do Valbuena, but he isn’t a must have.  The risk/reward between him and Valbuena probably isn’t enough to justify the salary.  I am on team, sign Santana, trade for a 2nd baseman that is a long term fix, and if there is enough money sign Mous.  

[vladdy#27]

Actually now that you bring up Turner that might be a good comp for Moustakas. Turner was a free agent last year and had a hard time finding a deal and ended up signing for less than what was projected. While Turner is 3 years older he is a better player.

Turner signed for 4 years 64M

There doesn’t appear to be much of a market for Moustakas meaning his value is going to come down. I’d be surprised if he got more than Turner. 

[Angelsfan1984]

18 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I have no idea if his price is going to go down or not because this place is where I get most of my baseball news and rumors.  I can tell you that we are in a bubble on this website, for good or for bad, and so while we might think his price is coming down because the narrative we created here is he is too risky or the market is limited, that may not at all be the case.  All that being said, the Angels and Dodgers would get him for the least amount of money, simply because he does want to be closer to home.  It certainly doesn’t appear the Dodgers have room for him with Turner, so it very well could be the Angels.  However, if Eppler doesn’t value his skill set, or like many here, think the money could be allocated better it won’t really matter.  I think if his price drops enough, he will probably be an Angel.  

My personal opinion is I wouldn’t trade Calhoun to free up the cash it takes to get a guy like Mous.  He’s an improvement and I have a lot more faith in him than I do Valbuena, but he isn’t a must have.  The risk/reward between him and Valbuena probably isn’t enough to justify the salary.  I am on team, sign Santana, trade for a 2nd baseman that is a long term fix, and if there is enough money sign Mous.  

If that scenario plays out id rather use that money on a pitcher like Lynn or Cobb than Mous. I'm fine with whatever route they go, I just know we need at least 2 of 3 positions being fixed. RF and 1B are not must haves since we currently have people in those slots. 2nd and 3rd  are must haves in my book.

[Angelsfan1984]

9 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

Actually now that you bring up Turner that might be a good comp for Moustakas. Turner was a free agent last year and had a hard time finding a deal and ended up signing for less than what was projected. While Turner is 3 years older he is a better player.

Turner signed for 4 years 64M

There doesn’t appear to be much of a market for Moustakas meaning his value is going to come down. I’d be surprised if he got more than Turner. 

I'm totally fine with Mous at 4 years between 55-65. Above that, send the money to a pitcher.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

If that scenario plays out id rather use that money on a pitcher like Lynn or Cobb than Mous. I'm fine with whatever route they go, I just know we need at least 2 of 3 positions being fixed. RF and 1B are not must haves since we currently have people in those slots. 2nd and 3rd  are must haves in my book.

I agree with neither of those positions being must haves.  That being said, if I could only choose one, Mous to take Valbuena's place or Santana to take Cron's plays, I will take Santana.  

[Angelsfan1984]

24 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree with neither of those positions being must haves.  That being said, if I could only choose one, Mous to take Valbuena's place or Santana to take Cron's plays, I will take Santana.  

I would not consider Valbuena a good candidate to play 3rd. You either have good defense or good hitting and at this point he hasn't provided good enough of either to qualify as the starter. With that said we don't have a 2nd or 3rd baseman on the roster outside of Cowart and I don't think most people want to give him a full season at either position. At least with 1st base you get Cron and as you said Valbuena to play that position.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

41 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Above that, send the money to a pitcher.

Not what Eppler is going to do.

[Angelsfan1984]

2 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Not what Eppler is going to do.

Its what he should do. We didn't get a full season out of any starter outside of Bridwell. I'd say its time to boost the rotation.

[eaterfan]

13 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I would not consider Valbuena a good candidate to play 3rd. You either have good defense or good hitting and at this point he hasn't provided good enough of either to qualify as the starter. With that said we don't have a 2nd or 3rd baseman on the roster outside of Cowart and I don't think most people want to give him a full season at either position. At least with 1st base you get Cron and as you said Valbuena to play that position.

I get that 3rd base can be easily upgraded, but you don't need someone to just stand there. Santana was a bigger upgrade from Cron than Moustakas was from Valbuena last year. Cron+Mous were worth a combined 2.6 wins and Santana and Valbuena were worth 3.4. Almost a full win better. But even if you don't want to go that route, Todd Frazier will most likely cost much less and put up 1.6 WAR last season. That's 90% of the value of Mous without 90% of the commitment. 

[Erstad Grit]

12 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I get that 3rd base can be easily upgraded, but you don't need someone to just stand there. Santana was a bigger upgrade from Cron than Moustakas was from Valbuena last year. Cron+Mous were worth a combined 2.6 wins and Santana and Valbuena were worth 3.4. Almost a full win better. But even if you don't want to go that route, Todd Frazier will most likely cost much less and put up 1.6 WAR last season. That's 90% of the value of Mous without 90% of the commitment. 

To be fair the comparison should be

3b Moose + 1b Cron/Valbuena

or

3b Valbuena + Santana 

 

[eaterfan]

Just now, Erstad Grit said:

To be fair the comparison should be

3b Moose + 1b Cron/Valbuena

or

3b Valbuena + Santana 

 

Valbuena put up 0.0 WAR. So it doesn't make any difference to the equation.

[Angelsfan1984]

15 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Valbuena put up 0.0 WAR. So it doesn't make any difference to the equation.

He's part of the equation at both 1st and 3rd. If you don't like him at first base why would you like him at third?

Valbuena - .199 .294 .727 22 HR 65 RBI

Mous-  .272 .314 .835 38 HR 85 RBI

 

Cron- .248 .305 .741 16 HR 56 RBI/Valbuena - .199 .294 .727 22 HR 65 RBI (so we got an average of .223 .299 .734 Totals of 38 HR and 122 RBI out of the 1st base position)

Santana- .259 .363 .818 23 HR 79 RBI

 

Why wouldn't you want the upgrade at 3rd?

[arch stanton]

Whether at 1B or 3B Valbuena will be part of a platoon and if it’s 3B he will have a late inning defense caddy. I’d prefer that they solve 2B first then do whatever makes sense based on budget, availability, and long term plans

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

55 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Its what he should do. We didn't get a full season out of any starter outside of Bridwell. I'd say its time to boost the rotation.

What's to say any pitcher we spend big money on will not become injured also? Last year Keuchel, Kershaw, Price, Milone, Wheeler, Harvey, Felix, and the entire Seattle pitching staff spent significant time on the DL.

I'm sure that those injured pitchers were just a sample of all the injuries to pitchers last season. At least our in house 8 pitchers are healthy at the moment and are still under team control.

Our offense on the other hand was atrocious last year, and even with the Upton addition we still have more holes in the IF than Bonnie and Clyde's last car.