Marlins Hope To Trade Stanton, Gordon, Prado

[Troll Daddy]

Even if the Angels show some interest in Stanton ... Stanton would have to approve the trade. I’m not convinced he would  ... are you ?

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Even if the Angels show some interest in Stanton ... Stanton would have to approve the trade. I’m not convinced he would  ... are you ?

Why wouldn't he? Hometown team, good players around him, opportunity to win, a team that's far more consistently competitive than the Marlins have been, doesn't have to be the main star in the spotlight...

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Even if the Angels show some interest in Stanton ... Stanton would have to approve the trade. I’m not convinced he would  ... are you ?

Yes.  He has said he wants to go to the Angels or Dodgers.  He’s from So Cal.

[tomsred]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yes.  He has said he wants to go to the Angels or Dodgers.  He’s from So Cal.

Why do I feel that we would have a lot better team if someone convinced the Dodgers to move to Rapid City, South Dakota.

[ukyah]

38 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Even if the Angels show some interest in Stanton ... Stanton would have to approve the trade. I’m not convinced he would  ... are you ?

if the only hold up was stanton approving the trade, then i think he would be an angel.

[totdprods]

On 11/14/2017 at 9:56 AM, totdprods said:

You could probably draw up similar proposals with the Giants, who are also interested in Stanton. 
Angels could be interested in some of SFG's heftier contracts (Samardzija, Belt, Panik, Melancon) in addition to Miami's (Gordon, Prado) but the Giants don't have the desirable prospect depth to play with.

Here's the first instance of a writer mentioning or speculating about a 3rd team's involvement in facilitating a Stanton trade....

The Giants are willing to pick up a sizable amount of Stanton’s contract, one source said. Such a deal, however, would exacerbate the team’s luxury-tax concerns, likely resulting in the trade of at least one high-priced veteran, perhaps as part of a package going to the Marlins, perhaps to other clubs.

https://theathletic.com/159001/2017/11/17/rosenthal-giants-make-trade-proposal-for-giancarlo-stanton-other-teams-also-in-the-mix/

Angels would seemingly have interest in Belt or Panik, with Cueto and Samardzija behind them and Melancon a step behind that. If the Giants have to take on a Prado or Gordon as well, then those could also be players flipped afterwards.

[Angelsfan1984]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Here's the first instance of a writer mentioning or speculating about a 3rd team's involvement in facilitating a Stanton trade....

The Giants are willing to pick up a sizable amount of Stanton’s contract, one source said. Such a deal, however, would exacerbate the team’s luxury-tax concerns, likely resulting in the trade of at least one high-priced veteran, perhaps as part of a package going to the Marlins, perhaps to other clubs.

https://theathletic.com/159001/2017/11/17/rosenthal-giants-make-trade-proposal-for-giancarlo-stanton-other-teams-also-in-the-mix/

Angels would seemingly have interest in Belt or Panik, with Cueto and Samardzija behind them and Melancon a step behind that. If the Giants have to take on a Prado or Gordon as well, then those could also be players flipped afterwards.

If they pick up Stanton they aren't selling the farm around him. That makes no sense.

[ukyah]

11 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

If they pick up Stanton they aren't selling the farm around him. That makes no sense.

in one regard, but if they blow well past the luxury tax, then that would likely be a different story. the giants operate like the angels, from the luxury tax perspective, meaning they like to stay just under it.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, ukyah said:

in one regard, but if they blow well past the luxury tax, then that would likely be a different story. the giants operate like the angels, from the luxury tax perspective, meaning they like to stay just under it.

And dealing away Panik or Belt and replacing with cheaper stopgap FAs could be in the cards. They'd just be in a position with little leverage and will have to be forced to take less prospects to save money.

[wopphil]

@eaterfanand I were discussing the framework of a deal earlier today. If the Marlins took back Calhoun and flipped him to another team, and also sent over Gordon and ate his entire deal, the Marlins would shed about $300 mil of $330 mil owed, while the Angels would get Stanton and Gordon while only increasing payroll by effectively $20 mil over the next few years (Stanton minus Calhoun). The Marlins get huge salary relief, and the Angels keep payroll in check.

Add a couple good prospects to the deal (Jones and Barria) and you have the framework of a deal that could be palatable to both clubs.

[ukyah]

10 minutes ago, wopphil said:

@eaterfanand I were discussing the framework of a deal earlier today. If the Marlins took back Calhoun and flipped him to another team, and also sent over Gordon and ate his entire deal, the Marlins would shed about $300 mil of $330 mil owed, while the Angels would get Stanton and Gordon while only increasing payroll by effectively $20 mil over the next few years (Stanton minus Calhoun). The Marlins get huge salary relief, and the Angels keep payroll in check.

Add a couple good prospects to the deal (Jones and Barria) and you have the framework of a deal that could be palatable to both clubs.

i would not take on that contract and send jones and barria over.

it's important to realize that there has been no indication that the angels have any interest in acquiring stanton's contract. dodgers or giants seem to be the landing spot.

[Troll Daddy]

31 minutes ago, ukyah said:

i would not take on that contract and send jones and barria over.

it's important to realize that there has been no indication that the angels have any interest in acquiring stanton's contract. dodgers or giants seem to be the landing spot.

The landing spot is up to Stanton ... but you’re on target. 

[wopphil]

40 minutes ago, ukyah said:

i would not take on that contract and send jones and barria over.

it's important to realize that there has been no indication that the angels have any interest in acquiring stanton's contract. dodgers or giants seem to be the landing spot.

I'm not suggesting the Angels have any interest. I am sure they don't. But Stanton's contract will look like a bargain in about 14 months.  And the guy just won an MVP. He is going to require prospects to acquire, along with the acquiring team eating the vast majority of his contract.

[Hubs]

Four prospects is often the price for these type of deals. We actually haven't had one of these deals in a while. But look at Cabrera deal and you have a framework I suppose.

[Blarg]

19 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Four prospects is often the price for these type of deals. We actually haven't had one of these deals in a while. But look at Cabrera deal and you have a framework I suppose.

Cabrera didn't have a boat anchor contract when was traded. He does now. 

[Hubs]

I think he'll end up with the Dodgers for a combo of prospects, Puig and Grandal.

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 11/17/2017 at 7:01 PM, wopphil said:

I'm not suggesting the Angels have any interest. I am sure they don't. But Stanton's contract will look like a bargain in about 14 months.  And the guy just won an MVP. He is going to require prospects to acquire, along with the acquiring team eating the vast majority of his contract.

I think thats a good point...his contract is huge, but any guy his age and as good as he is will be....

People compare the moustakas thread into the beltre situation...i dont see that at all. With Stanton, i do. The reason beltre was such a blunder was we had no 3B in our system at the time, and none of the good ones were looking to hit FA any time soon.

Stanton i see the same thing. We have no one in the system that projects to be his bat. Pujols will only get worse, and upton isnt young. We will have to get a bat to pair trout with sooner than i think people realize. It doesnt have to be stanton, obviously. But any plus bat is going to cost a ton, in either dollars or prospects. 

Its almost a perfect oppurtunity. The money is an obvious issue, and i understand saying no thanks because of it. But we WILL have to spend going forward. Stanton gets you a legit second guy who can carry a team, which is also insurance if trout ends up leaving, and doesnt cost a draft pick.

Its not going to happen, but the angels are stupid if they dont at least check in, especially since he says he wants to come to socal. If anything, drive up the price the dodgers will habe to pay at least.

[SoWhat]

I’m not getting my hopes up for Stanton or even a guy like Carlos Santana. These past few offseasons have really taught me to temper expectations no matter how much a guy makes sense or how much we’re under the luxury tax. All I’m expecting this offseason is Logan Morrison and Cesar Hernandez, which is still an upgrade but not enough to compete with the big boys. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

13 minutes ago, SoWhat said:

I’m not getting my hopes up for Stanton or even a guy like Carlos Santana. These past few offseasons have really taught me to temper expectations no matter how much a guy makes sense or how much we’re under the luxury tax. All I’m expecting this offseason is Logan Morrison and Cesar Hernandez, which is still an upgrade but not enough to compete with the big boys. 

Im not big on Morrison, but Hernandez would be an upgrade everyone should aplaud. Him and either a 3B or a better than Cron 1B bat I think (with Upton) makes the offense a hell of a lot more respectable than anything weve had since 14.

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, SoWhat said:

I’m not getting my hopes up for Stanton or even a guy like Carlos Santana. These past few offseasons have really taught me to temper expectations no matter how much a guy makes sense or how much we’re under the luxury tax. All I’m expecting this offseason is Logan Morrison and Cesar Hernandez, which is still an upgrade but not enough to compete with the big boys. 

i wouldn't expect hernandez either. the angels have to trade for him and so far they've been unable to do that. i think neil walker is more likely to be an angel.

[ettin]

10 hours ago, SoWhat said:

I’m not getting my hopes up for Stanton or even a guy like Carlos Santana. These past few offseasons have really taught me to temper expectations no matter how much a guy makes sense or how much we’re under the luxury tax. All I’m expecting this offseason is Logan Morrison and Cesar Hernandez, which is still an upgrade but not enough to compete with the big boys. 

You forgot Justin Upton?

Just teasing. We (me included) often forget we have made a really significant off-season move already.

As I have mentioned in the Middle Infield section of the Primer and in tomorrow's Corner Infield section, the two most likely areas to upgrade are 2B and 1B based on our grand total production of -0.1 and 0.6 WAR, respectively, last season. However those upgrades will only make sense if we can find a player or players that can significantly improve over Cowart's and Cron's projected 2018 WAR of 0.6 and 1.2 respectively (which we should be able to find quite easily).

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

You forgot Justin Upton?

Just teasing. We (me included) often forget we have made a really significant off-season move already.

As I have mentioned in the Middle Infield section of the Primer and in tomorrow's Corner Infield section, the two most likely areas to upgrade are 2B and 1B based on our grand total production of -0.1 and 0.6 WAR, respectively, last season. However those upgrades will only make sense if we can find a player or players that can significantly improve over Cowart's and Cron's projected 2018 WAR of 0.6 and 1.2 respectively (which we should be able to find quite easily).

I agree that 2B is the biggest area of need, but I would probably prioritize 3B above 1B.  I think we could get by with Valbuena / Cron platooning at first.  Valbuena is entering a contract year, and after a slow start last year, he performed well enough where I have some hope that he could be a decent contributor next year.  Nothing special, but he can certainly be a complementary component for us.  We also have Thasis coming up through the minors, although I don't know if he'll ultimately have the bat to stick at first.

I am personally in the sign Moose camp, but ONLY to a "reasonable" contract.  Max of 4 years, no more than 15mil AAV.

[Tank]

16 hours ago, Hubs said:

I think he'll end up with the Dodgers for a combo of prospects, Puig and Grandal.

I can easily see this happening.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

I agree that 2B is the biggest area of need, but I would probably prioritize 3B above 1B.  I think we could get by with Valbuena / Cron platooning at first.  Valbuena is entering a contract year, and after a slow start last year, he performed well enough where I have some hope that he could be a decent contributor next year.  Nothing special, but he can certainly be a complementary component for us.  We also have Thasis coming up through the minors, although I don't know if he'll ultimately have the bat to stick at first.

I am personally in the sign Moose camp, but ONLY to a "reasonable" contract.  Max of 4 years, no more than 15mil AAV.

We got a collective 0.6 WAR out of 1B in 2017 and 1.6 WAR at 3B. Platooning Cron and Valbuena never made sense to me because throughout C.J.'s career he has for the most part stunk against LHP. They both hit RHP fairly well but not LHP. A Cron/Marte or Valbuena/Marte platoon makes a lot more sense to me.

I agree with both you and @Dochalo that Eppler could upgrade at one or both corners depending on how the trade and free agent markets treat him. But based on the low production and other factors which I will discuss in the 'Final Thoughts' article at the end of the Primer Series, upgrading at 1B and putting Valbuena at 3B probably makes the better strategic sense for the 2018 season if Billy can manage it with the current set of resources.

As much as I want Thaiss to succeed and become a productive member his development timeline doesn't appear to be moving along as fast as the team would have hoped. If the Angels sign someone like Santana or trade for someone like Carpenter it could give Matt a lot of breathing room to develop on a more normal time frame and gives the Angels flexibility to insert him when he's more ready.

Moose is going to get 5 years minimum at about $16M-$20M per season. The market doesn't have very many quality 3B so he will get paid unless he really does want to take a hometown discount. I think he'd make a better 1B to be honest in the long run. Eppler could sign him and have Valbuena play 1B and Moose 3B in 2018 and then once Luis is gone move him over to 1B. His defense would probably play up better there in the long term.

Edited November 19, 2017 by ettin

[Warfarin]

35 minutes ago, ettin said:

We got a collective 0.6 WAR out of 1B in 2017 and 1.6 WAR at 3B. Platooning Cron and Valbuena never made sense to me because throughout C.J.'s career he has for the most part stunk against LHP. They both hit RHP fairly well but not LHP. A Cron/Marte or Valbuena/Marte platoon makes a lot more sense to me.

I agree with both you and @Dochalo that Eppler could upgrade at one or both corners depending on how the trade and free agent markets treat him. But based on the low production and other factors which I will discuss in the 'Final Thoughts' article at the end of the Primer Series, upgrading at 1B and putting Valbuena at 3B probably makes the better strategic sense for the 2018 season if Billy can manage it with the current set of resources.

As much as I want Thaiss to succeed and become a productive member his development timeline doesn't appear to be moving along as fast as the team would have hoped. If the Angels sign someone like Santana or trade for someone like Carpenter it could give Matt a lot of breathing room to develop on a more normal time frame and gives the Angels flexibility to insert him when he's more ready.

Moose is going to get 5 years minimum at about $16M-$20M per season. The market doesn't have very many quality 3B so he will get paid unless he really does want to take a hometown discount. I think he'd make a better 1B to be honest in the long run. Eppler could sign him and have Valbuena play 1B and Moose 3B in 2018 and then once Luis is gone move him over to 1B. His defense would probably play up better there in the long term.

Those are some excellent points.

I do feel it's unlikely we'll see BOTH corner IF spots upgraded in a single offseason.  We have Valbuena, Cron, and Marte who can all, to some extent, play some kind of role.  I would also prefer not to have several corner IFers locked down to a multi-year contract, knowing that we'll need some dollars to upgrade other positions soon (i.e. catcher, as Maldonado is entering the last year of his contract) in the upcoming offseasons.

I like Santana's offensive game better than Moose's.  He has a better eye and grasp of the strike zone, as evidence by his nearly 1:1 BB/K ratio.  My concern with Santana is he is at the age where decline usually happens, and I feel we'd be paying him for his past accomplishments and not for future contributions.  I'd strongly consider LoMo too.  It concerns me that he's only had the one good year in his contract season, but if we can sign him to a 2/24-ish type contract, then that helps mitigate risk, since even if he proves to be a fluke, we'd just be stuck with him for 2 years.  And he also has the benefit of not costing any draft compensation.

With Moose, if he indeed gets an offer for 5 years, then let him go elsewhere, no biggie.  There aren' many contenders looking for a 3B, and if you recall last offseason, Justin Turner signed at a considerably under-market contract to stay with the Dodgers (most thought he'd get 5 years, too).  I think some of the big market teams that want a stud 3B will wait next offseason for Machado to hit the market.  So with Moose, I say only sign him *IF* you can get him at a below-market value.  I know people say that's unlikely with Boras, so again, if this is true, then forget it.

All that said, if we can acquire Hernandez (my #1 offseason target) and Santana, then I'd say that's a pretty successful offseason.  I'd like to acquire a lefty reliever as well (Minor?  McGee?  someone else?), but I feel we can possibly fill that cheaply as well if those options prove to be too expensive.

Lineup:

2B  Hernandez (S)

CF Trout (R)

1B Santana (S)

LF Upton (R)

DH Pujols (R) **I'd bump him lower but realize that's unlikely**

RF Calhoun (L)

3B Valbuena / Marte platoon

SS Simmons (R)

C Maldonado (R)

This works out well, too.