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26 wins


Docwaukee

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8 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

So by my very precise calculations, the Angels need to win about 90 games to make the playoffs in 2024.  They won 73 games and lost a 9 win player.  

Hence they need to make up 26 wins from last year.  

Where are they are coming from?  

Health, growth of Neto, O’Hoppe, Schanuel, pitching staff pitching more like 22 than 23, addition of two starters and a guy like Hicks. That may not be 26 wins but it will certainly help. 

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1 minute ago, Docwaukee said:

So by my very precise calculations, the Angels need to win about 90 games to make the playoffs in 2024.  They won 73 games and lost a 9 win player.  

Hence they need to make up 26 wins from last year.  

Where are they are coming from?  

Healthy Trout and Rendon, New manager, Improved starting pitching from Sandoval, Detmers, Canning and any new starter, have Ward back, full year of Moniak, O'Hoppe, Neto and 1B. Plus not having to deal with what's going to happen to Ohtani hanging over Angels head all year. Playing with a chip on their shoulders as everyone counting them out before season starts. Jo Adell becoming player we all thought he was going to be. Rengifo playing like he did in second half for a full year. Always a surprise team in baseball and halos will be that team in 2024. Ninety wins I see 95.

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I don’t really look at it that way.

It’s a new season; every team is gaining and losing players, so I don’t think you can just look at it as “we won X games last year and need to add Y wins to get to Z.”

Looking at the lineup now, it’s reasonable to think that every single starter can be at least a league average player. The biggest area to address is the pitching.

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53 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

So by my very precise calculations, the Angels need to win about 90 games to make the playoffs in 2024.  They won 73 games and lost a 9 win player.  

Hence they need to make up 26 wins from last year.  

Where are they are coming from?  

Arte's ass

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I think it’s underrated how challenging a 6 man rotation is.

The Doyyers may find that out in 2025.

I look forward to 5 man rotations, going forward.

Time to go back to being a team effort, and hope the new training and conditioning staffs finally bring REAL health back to the Halos.

Being in the upper 1/3 for most injuries/games lost in SEVEN of the past NINE years can no longer be tolerated.

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1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

So by my very precise calculations, the Angels need to win about 90 games to make the playoffs in 2024.  They won 73 games and lost a 9 win player.  

Hence they need to make up 26 wins from last year.  

Where are they are coming from?  

The first pick in the draft when we finish with 64 wins?

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9 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

So by my very precise calculations, the Angels need to win about 90 games to make the playoffs in 2024.  They won 73 games and lost a 9 win player.  

Hence they need to make up 26 wins from last year.  

Where are they are coming from?  

Honestly, Ohtani cost the Angels more games than he won with the 6 man rotation. He was a bit of a white elephant. All stats say he is an MVP but for the Angels he actually made it harder to win games. 

 

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There are three areas, or at least three controllable areas (not counting luck/fate):

Health: I know, not fully controllable, but it isn't entirely outside of control, either. Trout needs to get on the phone with Novak Djokovic and find out some yoga moves and perhaps whatever alchemical concoctions Novak is drinking. Add in Rendon and Ward and the Angels got 222 games from those three, or an average of 74 games. That needs to improve, and almost certainly will. 222 games of Trout-Rendon-Ward yielded 4.7 WAR. With positive regression from all three and more games played, even just 350 games could give them 10+ WAR. The Angels were beyond even the worst-case reasonable scenario last year, so even if they still have injury issues in 2024, chances are it won't be nearly as bad. Meaning, they gain an easy 5 wins just through not having the worst injury-plagued season of all time, but the range starts there and could be +5 to 15 wins.

Player Development: Here's the good news: A larger number of Angels players are on the ascending arc: Neto, O'Hoppe, Schanuel, Moniak, Adell, Silseth, Detmers, even still Rengifo and Canning. Chances are there is overall improvement from this group. So again, a baseline +5 wins but with range being something like +5-10 wins.

Player Acquisitions: Many focus on this, and while it is obviously important, it is just one of three big areas of possible improvement - and I think probably less impactful than the other two. They need another starter or two and depth all around. +0-10 wins.

So a baseline of +10 wins from better health (it really can't be that bad again) and modest player development. But that is negated by the loss of Ohtani. 

So by my account, that's +10-30ish games...quite a range. Take away Ohtani and, at worst, they're around the same place, in the 70-75 win range. At best and they can win 90+, but...this is where luck/fate comes in, and the simple fact that they need someone to step forward and have a breakout/comeback year - and probably several players. Meaning, they really need Trout to return to being vaguely Trout-esque. They need one of Ward or Rendon to return to a better form of themselves and stay healthy. They need two or three of the young guys to grow up fast and be impact players. They need one or two of Sandoval, Detmers, Canning and Silseth to do more than be an erratic #3-4 and solidify as a strong #2. And they need some help from the outside.

 

 

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