Pre-Hot Stove Discussion; or, how do you spend $45 million this offseason?

[Angelsjunky]

Let's avoid the "a small island with supermodels" comments. OK, go ahead if you must--and I probably just opened the flood-gates--but I just wanted to pre-empt the smartassery. Onto the topic at hand....

Consider this a pre-Hot Stove discussion. There have been comments scattered throughout the forum, but let's consolidate it. From what I can tell, the Angels have $40-50M to spend this offseason. Let's say $45M...how do you spend it?

Considering all expiring contracts, I think the priorities are, in order:

1. A bullpen (3+ relievers). This is obviously the biggest concern, with only Mayers under club control for 2022, other than guys who have spent most of the year in the minors like Pena, Wantz, Warren, and Quijada. They've also not newcomer Selman, but he seems mediocre at best, and a bunch of minor leaguers to consider, including newcomers Elvis Peguero and Jose Marte. But the cupboard is pretty barren, as far as proven, quality relievers. So while they can fill several slots from within, I figure they'll want to sign at least three quality relievers, include a closer (e.g. Raisel Iglesias).

2. A starter. While the Angels are all of a sudden relatively flush in solid young starters--with breakthrough performances from Ohtani and Sandoval, "quasi-breakthroughs" from Suarez and Barria, two top prospects in Detmers and C Rod on the cusp, and, of course, presumably Canning will be back--it seems unlikely they won't go after at least one quality starter. They've also got several minor leaguers who could conceivably start major league games next year, like Davis Daniel, Jhonathan Diaz, and Janson Junk, not to mention top pick Sam Bachman possibly later in the year. So while a starter isn't absolutely necessary, it is probably a good idea to sign at least one guy, either Alex Cobb or someone like Marcus Stroman. The big fish will be Kevin Gausman, but he'll almost certainly be garnering the type of mega-contract that will be prohibitive to the Angels.

3. A shortstop. While there is a big crop of good shortstops available, this will likely be a budget signing--whether bringing Jose Iglesias back or rolling the dice on Luis Rengifo, or possibly moving Fletcher back to SS and going with an extended try-out at 2B/utility with Rengifo, Franklin Barreto, Michael Stefanic, or even fringe prospects Brendon Davis and Luis Aviles.

4. A back-up catcher. Max Stassi has emerged as a legit major league starting catcher. Consider that his 2.4 fWAR this year is 7th among all catchers, and he's done it in only 170 PA. The Angels might want to give Matt Thaiss a chance, with someone like Bemboom in AAA as insurance, or they might want to sign a cheap defense-first backup. Regardless, Suzuki is gone and we can only hope that it is lesson-learned, as far as a poor defensive catcher is concerned.

One Possible/Likely Scenario: "2021, Take Two"

The Angels re-sign Cobb for $9-10M AAV, Raisel for $14-15M AAV, and Jose Iglesias for $5-7M AAV. That's $28-33M just for those three players, leaving about $15M for two or (preferably three) more relievers and possibly a back-up catcher. A quality veteran reliever usually costs around $5-6M per year, so that should work out.

Meaning, they bring back those three players and spend the rest on re-vamping the bullpen. So basically you have the same 2022 team, but hope for better health from the lineup, continued improvement from the young starters, and you add a better cast around Raisel in the bullpen. Thus, "2021, Take Two."

Other Possibilities

Alternately, they can go the budget route at SS and either go after Stroman instead of Cobb or spend a bit more on relief.

I don't see them putting the required money into an elite starter, whether it is a huge 6+ year, $200M deal for Gausman or an expensive shorter deal for Scherzer (assuming he goes to free agency, which is probably unlikely). I also don't see them going after a more expensive shortstop than Iglesias. On the other hand, if they are willing to trade prospects to build up the bullpen, they might consider signing one of the better starters rather than (or in addition to) Cobb.

But without trades, I see them spending about two-thirds of their cash (~$30M) on the bullpen, about half of which will go to Raisel Iglesias and the other half to two or three veterans. The other one-third goes to a starter and a shortstop. The money ($45M) doesn't quite work, but they can budget-shop for that fourth reliever.

Don't Forget About Trades!

Trades are also possible. The Angels don't absolutely need both Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell, and as much as I'd like to see that Trout-Marsh-Adell outfield, these guys have significant trade value. I could also see them creating a package of one of their young starters (maybe Canning or Barria), a middle infield prospect (Jeremiah Jackson), and someone like Ward or Thaiss for a higher end pitching prospect. Or possibly several trades of prospects for quality relievers.

Regardless, the Angels go into the offseason in a better position than they have in years. For one, the core is much better--the lineup is very good and potentially great, and they have a bunch of quality (and cheap) young starters. Furthermore, they have both more money to spend and more (somewhat) expendable prospects to trade from.

Meaning, it wouldn't be terribly difficult for Minasian to greatly bolster the team so that they go into 2022 as a legit contender, and possibly without trading away any of their better prospects.

 

[Revad]

I like “2021, Take Two” and think the emphasis on pitching is right on.  But there may be pressure to sign a high priced shortstop instead of doing all that.  I hope not.

[Second Base]

I really don't like spending large sums on relief pitching. The reason why, Cody Allen two years ago at 8 million. Brad Hand at 10.5 million for meh results. Craig Kimbrel bring terrible the two years before this at 15 million. Adam Ottavino in New York.

If there's one on the market with prolonged success, no major feed flags and is still going enough to have some mileage left on his arm (like Raisel Iglesias), then yeah, you spend on that guy. But for the most part, I'd like to see the Angels trade for some high end relievers, like James Karinchak and develop some of their own. Combine that with a couple of safer free agent targets and they can fix the bullpen. 

[UndertheHalo]

If they want to try and compete with the World Series contenders it’s going to have to be more than 45 million.  More like 65 million.  I like Correra because he’s a good player in his prime and it hurts the Astros.  He has fewer question marks than the other SS’s.  I’d love for them to get Stroman and I think that he realistically would be interested in coming here (purely wild speculation based on his comments about some of our players).  Which has been a problem in other pitcher pursuits.  Obviously they’ve gotta get some relievers.  I don’t want them to spend a lot on one reliever.  I want them to not suck shit at finding guys.  It would be nice if they could work something out with Iglesias but I’d rather they dump the money spent into a SS and a good starter.  Anyway.  One can dream. 

Edited August 1, 2021 by UndertheHalo

[stormngt]

22 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I really don't like spending large sums on relief pitching. The reason why, Cody Allen two years ago at 8 million. Brad Hand at 10.5 million for meh results. Craig Kimbrel bring terrible the two years before this at 15 million. Adam Ottavino in New York.

If there's one on the market with prolonged success, no major feed flags and is still going enough to have some mileage left on his arm (like Raisel Iglesias), then yeah, you spend on that guy. But for the most part, I'd like to see the Angels trade for some high end relievers, like James Karinchak and develop some of their own. Combine that with a couple of safer free agent targets and they can fix the bullpen. 

If we sign Iglesias we will be looking set up men and multi inning pen arms.  They can't be that expensive.

Edited August 1, 2021 by stormngt

[GoodTimesGoneBad]

Stroman, Seagar, budget bullpen, and trade for a backup C. 

[stormngt]

9 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

If they want to try and compete with the World Series contenders it’s going to have to be more than 45 million.  More like 65 million.  I like Correra because he’s a good player in his prime and it hurts the Astros.  He has fewer question marks than the other SS’s.  I’d love for them to get Stroman and I think that he realistically would be interested in coming here (purely wild speculation based on his comments about some of our players).  Which has been a problem in other pitcher pursuits.  Obviously they’ve gotta get some relievers.  I don’t want them to spend a lot on one reliever.  I want them to not suck shit at finding guys.  It would be nice if they could work something out with Iglesias but I’d rather they dump the money spent into a SS and a good starter.  Anyway.  One can dream. 

No F'n 25 million a year contracts!

No need. Bullpen!  Bullpen!  Bullpen!

 

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, stormngt said:

If we sign Iglesias we will be looking fiercest up men and multi inning po en arms.  They can't be that expensive.

[Dtwncbad]

Go to the 99 cent store and buy 45 million items.  Keep the 45 million pennies for a rainy day.

[stormngt]

2 minutes ago, GoodTimesGoneBad said:

Stroman, Seagar, budget bullpen, and trade for a backup C. 

Here we go again. Budget bullpen. 

An expensive starter, and expensive SS and a budget pen. As a fan base we are hard headed.

How many years of a shitty pen are you guys willing to tolerate?  Hell we are probably right in the WC race with an average bullpen!

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Go to the 99 cent store and buy 45 million items.  Keep the 45 million pennies for a rainy day.

This is America.

We pay sales taxes. 

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

This is America.

We pay sales taxes. 

Ahem.

[UndertheHalo]

9 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Here we go again. Budget bullpen. 

An expensive starter, and expensive SS and a budget pen. As a fan base we are hard headed.

How many years of a shitty pen are you guys willing to tolerate?  Hell we are probably right in the WC race with an average bullpen!

The premium cost bullpens don’t work either mang.  It’s about scouting.  They’ve gotta find guys that get outs and then they’ve got to have a coaching and analytics team that know how to use them.  This is literally how all the good bullpens work. 

Edited August 1, 2021 by UndertheHalo

[Angelsfan1984]

Extend rasiel. Extend stasis, Extend Cobb, 2 more solid bp pieces. Let the kids play everywhere else. If they can pull a trade like Cobb again where they use a prospect to have a team eat some salary great. 

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Ahem.

Hello

[tdawg87]

Just now, Lou said:

Hello

I don't pay sales tax.

[wopphil]

I’d try to re-sign Cobb for something like 2/24.

I’d try to re-sign Raisel for something like 3/39.

I would try to acquire a very good starting pitcher via trade. Let’s assume this player costs $7 mil. I assume this would be a large trade that would involve Adell and potentially other prospects. 

With these moves, I still need two more pen arms and a shortstop. I’d try to bring back Iglesias on a 2/14 deal. I’d use whatever other money is left to acquire two mid-tier relief arms, either via trade or free agency. 

Sadly, this won’t move the needle much unless I do well with the acquisitions. This just goes to show how important it is to cultivate your own talent. 
 

 

[Lou]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't pay sales tax.

There are no major league players for sale in New Hampshire.

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, Lou said:

There are no major league players for sale in New Hampshire.

I played baseball once.

[stormngt]

23 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

The premium cost bullpens don’t work either mang.  It’s about scouting.  They’ve gotta find guys that get outs and then they’ve got to have a coaching and analytics team that know how to use them.  This is literally how all the good bullpens work. 

Well we havent done it for 8 years.

I am tired if a shitty bullpen and I am tired of superstar FA who are not worth the overall money we spend on them.

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I played baseball once.

Link?

[UndertheHalo]

10 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Well we havent done it for 8 years.

I am tired if a shitty bullpen and I am tired of superstar FA who are not worth the overall money we spend on them.

Hey.  it’s a problem, no doubt.  Still the answer isn’t allocating a lot of money there.  It doesn’t work for anyone. 

[Angels Fan Forever]

Minasian should plug Sam Bachman into the closer role next year for $570K instead of the $14M it would cost to re-sign Iglesias. And then stretch him out to be a starter in 2023. This gives us more financial flexibility to sign or trade for a TOR starting pitcher.

SP's - Ohtani, (TOR addition - Gausman, Stroman, Ray, etc.), Sandoval, Detmers, Barria, (Suarez/Canning).

BP - Bachman, Chris Rodriguez, Mayers, Yan, Wantz, Warren, Junk, Selman - internally and/or bring in other key guys.

Lineup - (1) Fletcher, (2) Trout, (3) Ohtani, (4) Rendon, (5) Walsh, (6) Upton, (7) Marsh, (8) Stassi, (9) Iglesias 

October baseball in 2022!!

[Justin]

The last time I was in a 99 Cent Store, all the items were 99.9 cents.

Also, two ladies were having the single greatest catfight I will ever witness. 

[Hubs]

Cobb, Raisel, one of the FA shortstops, Stroman, Two BP arms. 

Cobb was paid 15 this year but we only paid 5 of that. He’s 34 in October.  I’d imagine he gets 2-3 years max at like 7-8 M per season. Say 8-10-12 to be generous, which is 3/30. 
 

I doubt Bundy is back if he doesn’t turn it around in the next two months. But if not, Marcus Stroman make sense at like 18-22. like Ryu’s deal probably.

Then Raisel gets a slight raise and three to four years. He’s not getting Liam Hendricks money so say 11/13/15/17. Which is a lot but they haven’t had a closer as good as him since Frankie left or the one year Street was decent.

Problem is, that’s already 37. 
 

And I don’t want a budget shortstop. Seager might get the most but so might Baez or Story or Correa. Other than the cheater and I’d  take any of them or any of the other top SS. I’d consider bringing Iglesias back but honestly he’s flashy but not a top bat. He does occasionally have heroics and his bat isn’t bad, it’s just not good either.
 

So that puts me over even before addressing the set-up men. But I’d go get three, one at 5-7, one at 3 and one at 1-2. 
The rotation has presumably two locks in Ohtani and Sandoval, and then I’ve signed two in Stroman and Cobb. The other two spots are up for grabs between Canning, CRod, Barria, Suarez, and Detmers and a bunch of other minor league depth still out there. Barria probably gets it if he keeps pitching this way and Detmers and Canning also have a real shot. But CRod and Suarez can also be used out of the pen. Or in AAA. 
 

So I’m over budget but my pen is strong with Suarez back there. And CRod is in AAA  being first man up and maybe Canning or Barria is traded somewhere in need of a starter for something else we need.