The 2022 Angels could easily be the 2021 Red Sox

[Angelsjunky]

The Red Sox combine a stellar offense with a solid pitching staff. To put it very simply, they're 2nd in the AL in runs scored, 8th in the AL in runs allowed. They have a pretty average starting rotation, but an excellent bullpen. They were pretty bad last year, and surprisingly good this year.

The point being, as much as people bitch about the pitching, you don't have to have great pitching win more ball games than you lose if you have a very good offense and if your pitching (and defense) is at least solid across the board. Not every team can be great in all facets of the game: hitting, fielding, starting, relieving. But every good team is at least OK in every area and plus in one area. Or, at least, not terrible in any area, and pretty good in half or most areas. The lone exception that I can think of--at least as far as WS winning teams--was the Nationals a couple years ago, when they had a bad bullpen, but a very good lineup and a terrific rotation. Meaning, if you have one weak (below average) leg, it probably has to be the bullpen. But that only works if your starters and defenders can take up the slack.

So the key for Minasian this offseason is to do two things: raise the floor on the pitching staff, so that it is--at least--average across the board, and fix the defense. With the Angels lineup, an average pitching staff and defense equals 90 wins. If he can improve the pitching staff to above average, we could see more.

It sounds obvious, but that's kind of the point: not only that the task is clear, but that it is quite achievable, because the Angels already have a part of the picture: an excellent offense. And, with their core of young starters--both in the majors and high minors--they have the makings of a pretty good rotation already.

[failos]

[Angel Oracle]

Now, just need the owners and players to cooperate in 2022.

[Justin]

17 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

And, with their core of young starters--both in the majors and high minors--they have the makings of a pretty good rotation already.

I like the optimism but people have been saying some version of this for more than half a decade. One idiot* even said a core of Richards/Heaney/Skaggs/Tropeano was good enough to keep the Angels competing for the AL West title for years to come. 

 

*me

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, Justin said:

I like the optimism but people have been saying some version of this for more than half a decade. One idiot* even said a core of Richards/Heaney/Skaggs/Tropeano was good enough to keep the Angels competing for the AL West title for years to come. 

 

*me

Those statements are based on the assumption of good health.   It very well could have. Even accurate but we had the entire staff blow out their arms 

Edited July 5, 2021 by stormngt

[UndertheHalo]

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Justin said:

I like the optimism but people have been saying some version of this for more than half a decade. One idiot* even said a core of Richards/Heaney/Skaggs/Tropeano was good enough to keep the Angels competing for the AL West title for years to come. 

 

*me

Not just one idiot, but many (including myself) - and add in Shoemaker and Meyers.

There are a few differences, though, between now and 2015ish.

1) The Angels have a much better lineup. 2014 was a very good offense, but it is was kind of a "superstar and solid players." The Angels now have two mega-stars, plus Rendon and Walsh, plus a solid supporting cast, with more young players on the way. Mostly importantly, it is far more likely to be sustainable than the 2014 offense was (or wasn't, as it turned out).

2) The Angels had unusually bad luck with starter injuries back then. I mean, cosmically bad - all four of the guys you mentioned, plus the two I added, went down for extended time, most (all?) with TJS (and one died). Richards looked like the bonafide heir of staff ace to Weaver; Shoemaker was surprising good; Heaney and Skaggs were well-regarded prospects; Tropeano looked like a solid #4-5; and Meyers was the ultimate clean peanut. Meaning, it wasn't idiotic to not expect the rash of injuries or that none of these guys would be pretty good as a group. It is very unlikely for that to happen again.

3) The Angels have a much better farm than they did back then. They have tons of good OF and MI prospects to fill in gaps over the next half decade, plus a solid number of, at least, decent arms.

Those aren't just small differences, but rather huge ones.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Justin]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

2) The Angels had unusually bad luck with injuries back then.

This is the one of which I keep reminding myself. In a 5-year period from '14-'19, the Angels suffered torn UCLs to Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, and Ohtani.

Richards tore his twice and destroyed his knee on that freak play in Boston. Skaggs died. Shoemaker almost died from taking a comebacker to the head. 

It is unlikely the organization will be that unlucky again.

But who knows?

As far as the team having a better farm system than they did back then, this is true. But is it good? Or is it simply no longer the worst in baseball, the one Keith Law literally called "the worst I've ever seen"?

I don't really disagree with anything you've written, I'm just beaten down from years of watching one of the greatest players in the history of baseball on a team that can't finish above .500. I imagine many others feel the same. 

I hope next year will be better, but this is the 7th year in a row that I've said that. 

[JustATroutFan]

The thing about the 2014 Angels was that they had a lot of things go their way. They had guys who were surprising many people and put up good seasons and had career seasons like Richards, Shoemaker, and even Cory Rasmus (LMAO). If they didn't contribute a lot that season, I don't think the Angels would have been in the postseason. No doubt the offense was pretty good but it wasn't like the 2015 Blue Jays or anything. That was Trout's "worst" full season up to this point. It's funny looking back at it but people were really worried about Trout's future as a hitter. A .287/.377/.561 in another "Year of the Pitcher" when the baseballs weren't juiced led people to being worried about him, think about that for a second. it's too bad that non of those guys ever put up good seasons again, which is not shocking that the Angels fell back into playing mediocre baseball, at best. Richards is fighting for his career at the Major League level, Shoemaker was DFA by the Twins like last week, and Rasmus isn't even playing at the big leagues nowadays. If Richards or Shoemaker had performed well in 2015 like in 2014, the Angels probably would have made the postseason in 2015. If I remember correctly, the Angels would have made the postseason in 2015 if they had defeated the Rangers on the last day of the regular season. 

[Docwaukee]

Easily?  No

They have so much going right it's annoying.  The Sox are either really f'n smart or really f'n lucky or some combo thereof.  

Two years ago they had a bloated payroll (way bloated) and a crappy farm system.  Sound familiar?  

They move on from Betts to get the very underrated Verdugo and then trade the overrated Benintendi to help restock their farm.  They were somehow able to offload the overpaid David Price in the process.  Paying half of his salary and getting 16m per season back in the process.  

They picked up former top prospect Chris Arroyo off waivers from CLE for nothing and he's turned into a solid player

They signed Kike to a reasonable 14m and let the more expensive Bradley go.  Kike has been solid with the bat and great defensively.  Bradley has been a nightmare in Milwaukee.  

They got Hunter Renfroe after he wasn't offered arb and now have him controlled for two more years after this one.  He's on pace for a 3 WAR season and somehow he became a good defender again.  

They somehow got Nate Eovaldi to be an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

They made a nothing deadline deal with the phils to get Nick Pivetta who's 28, throws in the high 90's and has been very good for them plus Connor Seabold who's now their 8th best prospect albeit injured right now for Heath Hembree who has an era of 5 out of the CIN pen after the phils let him and his 12 era go and Brandon Workman who signed with the cubs as a FA, was released after 8 innings and then picked back up by the sox and now has a 1.54 era yet a 6.07 FIP with Boston.  

They found out how to make Martin Perez a decent pitcher.  

They've figured out how to make Matt Barnes one of the better relievers in baseball.  

They got Adam Ottavino AND a prospect for nothing from the skanks except they have to pay him.  He has also been one of the better relievers in baseball.  

They got Garrett Whitlock in the R5 draft and he has a 1.54 era in 41 innings.  He pitched in AA last year

They signed Sawamura for just above league min out of Japan, have him controlled for 2 more years and he somehow has a 2.48 era yet an FIP  of 4.84.  

They got Josh Taylor as a PTBNL from the dbacks for Deven Marrero a couple years ago.  He has a sub 3 era out of their pen

24 yo failed starter Darwinzon Hernandez who has a whip of 1.63 and almost a bb per ip has a 2.67 era yet an FIP of 4.31.  

The only guy they've missed on so far is Richards who was actually pitching well but has had a mental break down (surprise surprise) since the crack down on foreign substances and an era near 8 over his last 5 starts.  

Now they have a manageable payroll and an ok farm system (depth with not much at the top)

So yah.  Not easily at all.  

And DAMMIT!  you made me say nice things about the Red Sox.  You suck for that.  

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Easily?  No

They have so much going right it's annoying.  The Sox are either really f'n smart or really f'n lucky or some combo thereof.  

Two years ago they had a bloated payroll (way bloated) and a crappy farm system.  Sound familiar?  

They move on from Betts to get the very underrated Verdugo and then trade the overrated Benintendi to help restock their farm.  They were somehow able to offload the overpaid David Price in the process.  Paying half of his salary and getting 16m per season back in the process.  

They picked up former top prospect Chris Arroyo off waivers from CLE for nothing and he's turned into a solid player

They signed Kike to a reasonable 14m and let the more expensive Bradley go.  Kike has been solid with the bat and great defensively.  Bradley has been a nightmare in Milwaukee.  

They got Hunter Renfroe after he wasn't offered arb and now have him controlled for two more years after this one.  He's on pace for a 3 WAR season and somehow he became a good defender again.  

They somehow got Nate Eovaldi to be an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

They made a nothing deadline deal with the phils to get Nick Pivetta who's 28, throws in the high 90's and has been very good for them plus Connor Seabold who's now their 8th best prospect albeit injured right now for Heath Hembree who has an era of 5 out of the CIN pen after the phils let him and his 12 era go and Brandon Workman who signed with the cubs as a FA, was released after 8 innings and then picked back up by the sox and now has a 1.54 era yet a 6.07 FIP with Boston.  

They found out how to make Martin Perez a decent pitcher.  

They've figured out how to make Matt Barnes one of the better relievers in baseball.  

They got Adam Ottavino AND a prospect for nothing from the skanks except they have to pay him.  He has also been one of the better relievers in baseball.  

They got Garrett Whitlock in the R5 draft and he has a 1.54 era in 41 innings.  He pitched in AA last year

They signed Sawamura for just above league min out of Japan, have him controlled for 2 more years and he somehow has a 2.48 era yet an FIP  of 4.84.  

They got Josh Taylor as a PTBNL from the dbacks for Deven Marrero a couple years ago.  He has a sub 3 era out of their pen

24 yo failed starter Darwinzon Hernandez who has a whip of 1.63 and almost a bb per ip has a 2.67 era yet an FIP of 4.31.  

The only guy they've missed on so far is Richards who was actually pitching well but has had a mental break down (surprise surprise) since the crack down on foreign substances and an era near 8 over his last 5 starts.  

Now they have a manageable payroll and an ok farm system (depth with not much at the top)

So yah.  Not easily at all.  

And DAMMIT!  you made me say nice things about the Red Sox.  You suck for that.  

Dang! You follow the Red Sox pretty close too. I'm impressed 

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, Jason said:

Dang! You follow the Red Sox pretty close too. I'm impressed 

I don't.  I went on bbr and looked at their team and was like holy hell.  Then just clicked on guys I was like 'where the hell did that come from'.  I started off thinking it might be a few guy but it just kept on going and going.    

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I don't.  I went on bbr and looked at their team and was like holy hell.  Then just clicked on guys I was like 'where the hell did that come from'.  I started off thinking it might be a few guy but it just kept on going and going.    

Why can't the Halos be like them? Now I'm sad 

[Docwaukee]

13 minutes ago, Jason said:

Why can't the Halos be like them? Now I'm sad 

they can't without being an anomaly.  A combo of luck, over performing and a lot of really smart moves and of course health.  That's what it takes to from 80 to 100 wins in one season.  We've seen it in other situations where a bunch of young guys come into their own all at once.  

[Inside Pitch]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

they can't without being an anomaly.  A combo of luck, over performing and a lot of really smart moves and of course health.  That's what it takes to from 80 to 100 wins in one season.  We've seen it in other situations where a bunch of young guys come into their own all at once.  

It's also probably worth saying that in all likelihood, 2020 was a bit of an anomaly for the Sox.   Their talent level was better than that of a .400 team.

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Justin said:

I don't really disagree with anything you've written, I'm just beaten down from years of watching one of the greatest players in the history of baseball on a team that can't finish above .500. I imagine many others feel the same. 

I hope next year will be better, but this is the 7th year in a row that I've said that. 

Yeah, I hear you. I am reminded of what I've told people who want to quit smoking. You try and fail, try and fail. But you never know when it will finally stick, even if it is the 27th such attempt.

As Angels fans, or fans of any struggling organization, we can't give up--well, we can try, but hope springs eternal.

p.s. I wouldn't say the farm is good yet, but it isn't bad. I don't know enough about other farms to accurately rank them, but my sense is that they're in the 15-20 range, probably closer to the latter side - which is still better than they were a few years ago. But more to the point, in another year or two, they could be entering the top 10, as most of the talent is pooled at the bottom.

[Angelsjunky]

@Dochalo, I agree with IP that the Sox underperformed last year -- not unlike the Angels did the first month or two. I thought they were over-performing this year after what seemed like a fluky start. They did even off for awhile, but are playing really well again. Maybe they're a bit like the 2014 Angels: not as good as their record, which will likely be exposed once they hit the postseason.

But you're kind of missing my main point, or at least arguing past it. To put it another way, let's say that the different facets of a team account for the following percentages of performance:

Hitting 40%

Fielding 15%

Rotation 30%

Bullpen 15%

(Technically this is inaccurate, as baseball is 50-50 scoring and preventing runs, thus hitting should be 50% and the rest 50%, but I'm accounting for psychological impact; as a general rule, I think a good defense beats a good offense, all things being equal).

I'd rate the Angels like so, this year:

Hitting A-

Fielding F

Rotation C-

Bullpen C-

If we weight that with the percentages above, we get an overall grade point average of 2.25, or roughly C+ - which fits their record pretty well. If the hitting holds steady (and it could/should improve with a healthy Trout and Rendon), and the Angels improve the run prevention elements just a bit, they could be a good team, and that's with minimal changes:

Hitting A-

Fielding C

Rotation C+

Bullpen C+

= 2.8, or B- (85-90 wins)

If they make the right moves, the hitting is even better and they improve the other areas even more, they could be a 90-95 win team. It isn't far off, is my point.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

@Dochalo, I agree with IP that the Sox underperformed last year -- not unlike the Angels did the first month or two. I thought they were over-performing this year after what seemed like a fluky start. They did even off for awhile, but are playing really well again. Maybe they're a bit like the 2014 Angels: not as good as their record, which will likely be exposed once they hit the postseason.

But you're kind of missing my main point, or at least arguing past it. To put it another way, let's say that the different facets of a team account for the following percentages of performance:

Hitting 40%

Fielding 15%

Rotation 30%

Bullpen 15%

(Technically this is inaccurate, as baseball is 50-50 scoring and preventing runs, thus hitting should be 50% and the rest 50%, but I'm accounting for psychological impact; as a general rule, I think a good defense beats a good offense, all things being equal).

I'd rate the Angels like so, this year:

Hitting A-

Fielding F

Rotation C-

Bullpen C-

If we weight that with the percentages above, we get an overall grade point average of 2.25, or roughly C+ - which fits their record pretty well. If the hitting holds steady (and it could/should improve with a healthy Trout and Rendon), and the Angels improve the run prevention elements just a bit, they could be a good team, and that's with minimal changes:

Hitting A-

Fielding C

Rotation C+

Bullpen C+

= 2.8, or B- (85-90 wins)

If they make the right moves, the hitting is even better and they improve the other areas even more, they could be a 90-95 win team. It isn't far off, is my point.

while I appreciate the time and effort you put into your methodology, it's pretty much made up and doesn't necessarily correlate to how winning happens.  

the Red Sox have had literally everything but one of their moves go tremendously well.  Their pitching was shit last year and it showed up in the box score that way.  They might have underachieved a bit but now they've got a bunch of guys pitching over their heads.  And some well beyond their peripherals.  Maybe it's because they've got a manager back who can manage a bullpen.  

But let's assume that the Sox underachieved last year.  They've still needed so much to go right for them to be where they're at now.  Levels of improvement we shouldn't expect.  The Angels have to replace half their roster.  

I just don't agree that C level rotation, bullpen, and fielding will translate to a 85-90 wins.  And the Sox went from an F to an A- by your method.  In both categories.  

[Vlad27Trout27]

8 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Easily?  No

They have so much going right it's annoying.  The Sox are either really f'n smart or really f'n lucky or some combo thereof.  

Two years ago they had a bloated payroll (way bloated) and a crappy farm system.  Sound familiar?  

They move on from Betts to get the very underrated Verdugo and then trade the overrated Benintendi to help restock their farm.  They were somehow able to offload the overpaid David Price in the process.  Paying half of his salary and getting 16m per season back in the process.  

They picked up former top prospect Chris Arroyo off waivers from CLE for nothing and he's turned into a solid player

They signed Kike to a reasonable 14m and let the more expensive Bradley go.  Kike has been solid with the bat and great defensively.  Bradley has been a nightmare in Milwaukee.  

They got Hunter Renfroe after he wasn't offered arb and now have him controlled for two more years after this one.  He's on pace for a 3 WAR season and somehow he became a good defender again.  

They somehow got Nate Eovaldi to be an ace and one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

They made a nothing deadline deal with the phils to get Nick Pivetta who's 28, throws in the high 90's and has been very good for them plus Connor Seabold who's now their 8th best prospect albeit injured right now for Heath Hembree who has an era of 5 out of the CIN pen after the phils let him and his 12 era go and Brandon Workman who signed with the cubs as a FA, was released after 8 innings and then picked back up by the sox and now has a 1.54 era yet a 6.07 FIP with Boston.  

They found out how to make Martin Perez a decent pitcher.  

They've figured out how to make Matt Barnes one of the better relievers in baseball.  

They got Adam Ottavino AND a prospect for nothing from the skanks except they have to pay him.  He has also been one of the better relievers in baseball.  

They got Garrett Whitlock in the R5 draft and he has a 1.54 era in 41 innings.  He pitched in AA last year

They signed Sawamura for just above league min out of Japan, have him controlled for 2 more years and he somehow has a 2.48 era yet an FIP  of 4.84.  

They got Josh Taylor as a PTBNL from the dbacks for Deven Marrero a couple years ago.  He has a sub 3 era out of their pen

24 yo failed starter Darwinzon Hernandez who has a whip of 1.63 and almost a bb per ip has a 2.67 era yet an FIP of 4.31.  

The only guy they've missed on so far is Richards who was actually pitching well but has had a mental break down (surprise surprise) since the crack down on foreign substances and an era near 8 over his last 5 starts.  

Now they have a manageable payroll and an ok farm system (depth with not much at the top)

So yah.  Not easily at all.  

And DAMMIT!  you made me say nice things about the Red Sox.  You suck for that.  

So..Your saying they have gotten Lucky? The FIP are high compare to the Era! It's the opposite for us.

[failos]

Great timing with this shitty ass thread you jinx

[m0nkey]

10 hours ago, Dochalo said:

 

They signed Kike to a reasonable 14m and let the more expensive Bradley go.  Kike has been solid with the bat and great defensively.  Bradley has been a nightmare in Milwaukee.  

 

Without the accent, his name is an offensive term that can get you in trouble. Something I learned a couple months ago. 

[TheLordofOuts]

Does this mean that the 2022 Angels will be douche bags?

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

So..Your saying they have gotten Lucky? The FIP are high compare to the Era! It's the opposite for us.

it's not just about their FIP vs. ERA.  They've gotten performance out of guys that I wouldn't have expect them to.  Eovaldi is the third be pitcher in baseball.  If you saw that coming then you're a hell of a lot smarter than I am.  So their 'luck' isn't just that they've outperformed their stats but that guys are doing thing they don't normally do.  Maybe that's luck or maybe they're just smarter than everyone else.  

But you need that to happen in order to gain 20 wins.  Should we expect that as realistic for next year?  Here's what I'm saying.  To get where they're at it next year it would mean that Canning breaks out and drops a 2.7 era on the league and we add 4 pen guys who drop a sub 3 era and other stuff as well and the defense magically gets better even though 8 of the nine defensive players from this year will be on the team next year.  

What they're doing is odd and should not be expected.  Is there a chance that a bunch of guys have career years and that everyone we sign works out?  Sure.  Is it probable?  not so much.  Unless we think the Angels are under performing.  

[Vlad27Trout27]

I think part of Boston success is their amazing defense. Looking at there pitching stats, that defense has helped. Last night is a perfect example, there defense saved close to 4 runs for them. 

Perry had a similar idea coming into the season. that was to improve the defense. but hasn't happened....

[Angelsjunky]

12 hours ago, Dochalo said:

while I appreciate the time and effort you put into your methodology, it's pretty much made up and doesn't necessarily correlate to how winning happens.  

the Red Sox have had literally everything but one of their moves go tremendously well.  Their pitching was shit last year and it showed up in the box score that way.  They might have underachieved a bit but now they've got a bunch of guys pitching over their heads.  And some well beyond their peripherals.  Maybe it's because they've got a manager back who can manage a bullpen.  

But let's assume that the Sox underachieved last year.  They've still needed so much to go right for them to be where they're at now.  Levels of improvement we shouldn't expect.  The Angels have to replace half their roster.  

I just don't agree that C level rotation, bullpen, and fielding will translate to a 85-90 wins.  And the Sox went from an F to an A- by your method.  In both categories.  

Yes, its made up - but it is just meant to be illustrative.

As for the last, why wouldn't excellent hitting and average pitching = 85-90 wins? I'm simply saying that if the Angels have an excellent lineup and average in every other facet, they'll be above average/good overall. I mean, I hope they shoot for better and make bigger strides with the pitching and fielding. I'd rather go into 2022 feeling like they can win 90-95. But my initial point is that if you look at it from a certain angle, the Angels could make a similar jump like the Red Sox did from 2020 to 2021, albeit from 2021 to 2022. They have a strong foundation in their lineup and some solid young pitching. The roster needs a lot of work, but it is far from impossible.