Fangraphs 2021 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels by Dan Szymborski

[Chuck]

Article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-los-angeles-angels/

"Trevor Bauer would be a nice fit for the Angels, but that’s because he’d be — at least on the mound — a nice fit for pretty much everyone. Well, maybe not the Astros."

[Warfarin]

Quote

The Angels rotation is not in particularly bad shape, though it could use some spice at the top and some depth at the bottom. As with the offense, the Angels have a real incentive to go as over-the-top as they can this season while they still have the opportunity.

ZiPS is equally as positive about the bullpen, seeing it somewhere around the 10th-best in the majors despite losses to free agency. The Angels won’t miss Noé Ramirez if Raisel Iglesias closes out 40 games for a division winner in 2021. While the closer role is likely taken care of with Iglesias, an extra arm or two ought to be welcomed. When the injuries start, it would be a nice change of pace if the Angels employed too many quality pitchers rather than too few.

All very positive signs.  Adding Bauer would transform the rotation to actually pretty good, albeit a bit shallow in depth should someone (inevitably) get hurt.  The bullpen definitely has promise, and if we add another under-the-radar arm or two, that'd be huge.  Very positive overview by ZIPS.

[CanadianHalo]

Outside of Bundy, those guys just haven’t been reliable. If the Angels are serious about winning it’s time they stop betting on the same names every season. 
 

Bauer / Sonny / Bundy - is a very nice 1-2-3. The others can compete/fill in the other half of the rotation. 

[totdprods]

The second part of the first paragraph @Warfarin posted is interesting...opens the door for possibility of more offense upgrades instead of the tunnel-vision that’s been on the rotation.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

All very positive signs.  Adding Bauer would transform the rotation to actually pretty good, albeit a bit shallow in depth should someone (inevitably) get hurt.  The bullpen definitely has promise, and if we add another under-the-radar arm or two, that'd be huge.  Very positive overview by ZIPS.

Thats such an interesting take where it says our rotation isnt in particular bad shape when were all freaking out over it.   No it isnt sexy, but perahps it isnt shit either. perhaps we have more options than we think?

[Angelsjunky]

Aside from the fact that ZIPs is usually low, especially on premier players, it paints a generally optimistic view of the Angels in 2021. 

It also seems that ZiPs agrees with my preference of Sandoval over Barria. But this is partially due to Barria faring more poorly with FIP-based WAR; he's of the Glavine/Weaver mold, and his ERA will usually be better than his FIP. Pitchability and all that. But both should be solid performers.

The Angels, right now, have five starters who should provide plenty of quality starts, with a sixth guy who is more talented than any of them, although with obvious question marks. This is why I think the Angels are very serious in Bauer, and if they don't get him, may still only spend on one mid-rotation guy like Tanaka, Odorizzi, or Walker, and then spend the extra cash on another quality reliever and even possibly McCann. Either way, flesh out out the rotation depth with some clean peanuts.

I

[AngelsLakersFan]

Im a little surprised at the generally positive Adell / Ward projection. I think Fletcher is considerably underrated on there as well.

I expect a bit more out of Walsh and Upton but I think it is important to remember the downside risk inherent in Upton's play. That's why they need to find a solid outfielder.

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Aside from the fact that ZIPs is usually low, especially on premier players, it paints a generally optimistic view of the Angels in 2021. 

It also seems that ZiPs agrees with my preference of Sandoval over Barria. But this is partially due to Barria faring more poorly with FIP-based WAR; he's of the Glavine/Weaver mold, and his ERA will usually be better than his FIP. Pitchability and all that. But both should be solid performers.

The Angels, right now, have five starters who should provide plenty of quality starts, with a sixth guy who is more talented than any of them, although with obvious question marks. This is why I think the Angels are very serious in Bauer, and if they don't get him, may still only spend on one mid-rotation guy like Tanaka, Odorizzi, or Walker, and then spend the extra cash on another quality reliever and even possibly McCann. Either way, flesh out out the rotation depth with some clean peanuts.

I

Perhaps part of the motivation to secure someone like McCann is to help the pitching staff reach its potential.  If they highly believe in McCann's game-calling and pitch-framing, maybe our starters (and relievers) will all get a bit of a collective boost.  In that sense, I can see why such a large premium is being placed on catching by Minasian.  It's hard, as a casual fan, to truly know the degree to which a catcher impacts the game defensively.  In the WS though, we saw the Dodgers pivot to a much weaker hitting Austin Barnes over Will Smith, in part because both Kershaw and Buehler raved about how good he was defensively.  So perhaps in the eyes of Minasian, spending 10mil/yr on McCann provides surplus worth, as he helps the whole staff pitch better, which would be a better allocation of funds than just spending money on pitching alone.

[Second Base]

Hard to picture Fletcher not even bring a 2-win player at this point. I thought most sources were done selling him short. 

And I think we all have higher hopes that Walsh will be better than 1-win at 1B.

[Hubs]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Hard to picture Fletcher not even bring a 2-win player at this point. I thought most sources were done selling him short. 

And I think we all have higher hopes that Walsh will be better than 1-win at 1B.

Maybe their predicting Walsh for 2-3 WAR and Pujols for -1 to -2.

[AngelsLakersFan]

8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Hard to picture Fletcher not even bring a 2-win player at this point. I thought most sources were done selling him short. 

And I think we all have higher hopes that Walsh will be better than 1-win at 1B.

I think the system just hedges bets on Walsh based on the small sample. I think his true performance level next year is hard to gauge.

[eligrba]

 

WTF is up with the comps for Ty Buttrey and Mike Mayers?

Edited December 11, 2020 by eligrba

[failos]

Upton lol

[Second Base]

15 minutes ago, eligrba said:

 

WTF is up with the comps for Ty Buttrey and Mike Mayers?

Before Dipoto was a terrible douchebag GM he was a terrible douchebag reliever.

[Lazorko Saves]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think the system just hedges bets on Walsh based on the small sample. I think his true performance level next year is hard to gauge.

Agreed.  I've always liked Dan's stuff, but his system has a bit of a blind spot on rookies who don't have high end prospect pedigrees.

One thing I think his system does really well, however, is identify pitchers who are about to take a step forward in their development.  He mentions his projections liking Sandoval and Canning, so let's hope for that.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I think Fletcher is considerably underrated on there as well.

I agree. bWAR is a cumulative stat and Fletcher reached a 1.8 last season in only 49 games. His previous season he accumulated 4.5 in 154 games and there is no age regression that says he won't repeat 2019.  Even if you subscribe to fWAR Fletcher still is at 3.4 in 2019.

That said, there is no saying any of the other predictions would be factual as well by over or underrating performances that have yet to materialize. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Lazorko Saves said:

Agreed.  I've always liked Dan's stuff, but his system has a bit of a blind spot on rookies who don't have high end prospect pedigrees.

One thing I think his system does really well, however, is identify pitchers who are about to take a step forward in their development.  He mentions his projections liking Sandoval and Canning, so let's hope for that.

100% spot on.

Zips tends to be completely all over the place at both ends of the age spectrum.  Rookies and older veterans tend to see the most volatility and guys like Fletcher (and Trumbo before him),tend to be undervalued due to mediocre showings in the lower minors.  

Still as far as projection systems go its one of the most established, consistent performers.

[T.G.]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

100% spot on.

Zips tends to be completely all over the place at both ends of the age spectrum.  Rookies and older veterans tend to see the most volatility and guys like Fletcher (and Trumbo before him),tend to be undervalued due to mediocre showings in the lower minors.  

Still as far as projection systems go its one of the most established, consistent performers.

 

[angelsnationtalk]

3 hours ago, floplag said:

Thats such an interesting take where it says our rotation isnt in particular bad shape when were all freaking out over it.   No it isnt sexy, but perahps it isnt shit either. perhaps we have more options than we think?

But it was shit last year and has been shit for a few years in a row. We can't keep denying ourselves thinking Heaney, Canning, Bundy and Barria are solid pieces. 

[floplag]

35 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

But it was shit last year and has been shit for a few years in a row. We can't keep denying ourselves thinking Heaney, Canning, Bundy and Barria are solid pieces. 

Define solid?  All but Barria are projected in the same range as May/Urias which most here would kill to get by those numbers.  Im not sure i fully buy that but i also think they have been scapegoated a bit. 
 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

But it was shit last year and has been shit for a few years in a row. We can't keep denying ourselves thinking Heaney, Canning, Bundy and Barria are solid pieces. 

Seems a bit unfair to lump Bundy and Heaney in that.  He was #5 in the AL in fWAR last year.  Heaney was ranked #17.  Bundy was great and Heaney was very solid.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

But it was shit last year and has been shit for a few years in a row. We can't keep denying ourselves thinking Heaney, Canning, Bundy and Barria are solid pieces. 

Bundy, Heaney, Canning and Barria were all solid or better. They accounted for 39 of the team's 60 starts. The other 21 starts were from Teheran (dogshit), Sandoval (bad, but also somewhat unlucky), Ohtani (astronomic dogshit), Suarez (ditto), Andriese, and Peters.

In other words, two-thirds of the starts were pretty good, one third horrible. Now imagine replacing that one third horrible to even just decent. That means a bad rotation becomes an average one. 

The point being, the rotation as is--with no additions--projects to be about average, plus or minus depending upon various factors. Adding a starter or two makes it good.

[BTH]

One thing this shows is that the Angels truly need to add a quality outfielder. While Adell/Marsh/Schebler/Upton/Ward could put together good production, they shouldn't count on it. Adding a quality outfielder gives insurance for both LF and RF.

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Trendon said:

One thing this shows is that the Angels truly need to add a quality outfielder. While Adell/Marsh/Schebler/Upton/Ward could put together good production, they shouldn't count on it. Adding a quality outfielder gives insurance for both LF and RF.

Right, and hence the rumors we hear about Schwarber, etc.  I think Schebler is a nice start in that he'll be solid AAA depth and has shown himself to at least be replacement level (and has been above average most of the time).  That's certainly an improvement above what Adell did last year.

Schwarber would be a great option if management felt he could play RF, but I don't think there's much reason to think he can.  

[Docwaukee]

there's definitely some upside to be had from both Walsh and Fletch.  Which is good.  

Upton to some degree as well.  I think this also show that a solid LH hitting 4th OFer could has significant impact on both corner OF spots because of the potential downside without one.  

We've played the 'what if' game with pitchers in the past like 'replace so and so' but it really is a decent group.  Not bad.  Not good.  Bauer changes the entire rotation in a good way.  It essentially gives you 3 guys for the last rotation spot in Ohtani, Sandoval, Barria that can also fill in should the other four suffer an injury.  Plus, by mid year I think you could spot starting Detmers and Rodriguez.  And you've also got the Naughton's of the world along with a couple other AAAA guys.  

There are some other names in terms of pen depth but it would be great to replace Peter's name with another legit guy.  

I'm totally fine with a platoon backup at C who a defensive whiz and handles the staff well.  I don't think we need to take what I think would be a big risk on McCann.  

That said, would I replace Bauer with Realmuto and just try to beat the crap out of the ball every game while adding some mediocre starter to complete the rotation?  Maybe.  It wouldn't be my first or probably even my second choice but I could live with that more than I could adding Jake Odorizzi as our primary pitching acquisition.