Fangraphs 2021 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels by Dan Szymborski

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

No one is suggesting they dont need help, only that the staff as a whole isnt shit.  IF we got a Bauer at the top for example it pushes everyone down a rung and get much better much faster.  Either way were not replacing all of them.  
The projections dont suck, if they hold up.
No ace in their and no one thats going to likely win a Cy... but thats not going to be where our bread is buttered anyway. 

The projections work if they get pushed down in the rotation from signing an Ace. Heaney isn't an Opening Day starter. Say we get Bauer and Gray then suddenly Heaney becomes an incredibly strong #4 guy. He never was or will be a #1 or #2 guy. 
Being able to push them down 2 spots would allow us to say we have an incredibly deep and good rotation.
Sure, Canning/Barria/Heaney had a decent year but not for correctly being an Opening Day starter. 

This has been my point all along that they are just average pitchers. We need an Ace and hopefully a trade for someone else to solidify them being "average".

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

The projections work if they get pushed down in the rotation from signing an Ace. Heaney isn't an Opening Day starter. Say we get Bauer and Gray then suddenly Heaney becomes an incredibly strong #4 guy. He never was or will be a #1 or #2 guy. 
Being able to push them down 2 spots would allow us to say we have an incredibly deep and good rotation.
Sure, Canning/Barria/Heaney had a decent year but not for correctly being an Opening Day starter. 

This has been my point all along that they are just average pitchers. We need an Ace and hopefully a trade for someone else to solidify them being "average".

And once again, if we don’t sign an ace and get two strong starters we can compete.  I think Doc mentioned a post or a thread by AJ that breaks it all down.  You really should read that.

[Angels in 2030]

This isn’t a knock on anyone.  But I always laugh when I read “if we get an ace and another strong SP” our rotation will be really good. Like what team will not have a good rotation if you magically add both a #1 and #2-3 to their current rotation?!? That’s one HORRIBLE rotation/team if you added that and their rotation still sucked. 

[angelsnationtalk]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

And once again, if we don’t sign an ace and get two strong starters we can compete.  I think Doc mentioned a post or a thread by AJ that breaks it all down.  You really should read that.

Totally agree. But it only happens with a few more pitchers. Not with the current state.

[Stradling]

Just now, angelsnationtalk said:

Totally agree. But it only happens with a few more pitchers. Not with the current state.

By a few you mean 2

[angelsnationtalk]

Just now, Stradling said:

By a few you mean 2

A couple as in 5.... jk yes.

[angelsnationtalk]

2 minutes ago, Fourts said:

This isn’t a knock on anyone.  But I always laugh when I read “if we get an ace and another strong SP” our rotation will be really good. Like what team will not have a good rotation if you magically add both a #1 and #2-3 to their current rotation?!? That’s one HORRIBLE rotation/team if you added that and their rotation still sucked. 

The Orioles would still be bad

[Warfarin]

41 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

It will be interesting how Minasian and his staff evaluate our prospects and how that affects going after SP trades.  While getting Bauer leaves prospect currency in the bank for other moves, it tightens payroll flexibility for several years even with other big contracts dropping off.  Going after Snell +1 through trade and seeing how they manage the prospect list is interesting  The cost will be high, but Minasian may be confident in his staffs ability to draft, procure and prune a restructured farm.  Bauer may be financially possible but Snell or similar gives Minasian more elbow room in the overall scheme.  My guess is that he is prepared for Bauers ask being too high anyway. 

Right, and It think this is a very key consideration.

A lot of people point out that Bauer "only costs money," and that we can afford him because Pujols is coming off the payroll after this year and Upton the year thereafter.  While true, there are other upcoming costs beyond that, as Ohtani goes deeper into arbitration, Fletcher starts arbitration next year, same with Canning, etc.  Year 1 generally isn't too expensive, but the better they perform, the higher the costs, etc.

So while Pujols and Upton will be off the payroll in 2 years, we will also see significant costs associated with the others in terms of arbitration.  In this regard, trading for Snell, Gray, Darvish, etc is more appealing in that they all have 3 years remaining, not the 5-6 that Bauer will likely command, and both Gray and Snell are considerably more cost-effective.

Minasian may ultimately feel the best path in terms of balancing payroll and prospect cost is to deal for one of Snell/Gray, who have 3 years and 30-40mil remaining, and trading some prospects who he may not feel as high on as Eppler did, than spending 6/150+ on Bauer.  This is likely a strong consideration, since we have mega contract for Trout + Rendon already, as well as projected arbitration costs.

[floplag]

40 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

The projections work if they get pushed down in the rotation from signing an Ace. Heaney isn't an Opening Day starter. Say we get Bauer and Gray then suddenly Heaney becomes an incredibly strong #4 guy. He never was or will be a #1 or #2 guy. 
Being able to push them down 2 spots would allow us to say we have an incredibly deep and good rotation.
Sure, Canning/Barria/Heaney had a decent year but not for correctly being an Opening Day starter. 

This has been my point all along that they are just average pitchers. We need an Ace and hopefully a trade for someone else to solidify them being "average".

The projections were not conditional.  We all want that, but it isnt dependent on that. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Shouldn't Marsh get his chance soon? Will Reid Detmers get a shot in ST to make the team. Because when he was drafted some talking heads said he was the closest to ML ready pitcher in the draft. They said he could even pitch that very same season