Fangraphs 2021 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels by Dan Szymborski

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

there's definitely some upside to be had from both Walsh and Fletch.  Which is good.  

Upton to some degree as well.  I think this also show that a solid LH hitting 4th OFer could has significant impact on both corner OF spots because of the potential downside without one.  

We've played the 'what if' game with pitchers in the past like 'replace so and so' but it really is a decent group.  Not bad.  Not good.  Bauer changes the entire rotation in a good way.  It essentially gives you 3 guys for the last rotation spot in Ohtani, Sandoval, Barria that can also fill in should the other four suffer an injury.  Plus, by mid year I think you could spot starting Detmers and Rodriguez.  And you've also got the Naughton's of the world along with a couple other AAAA guys.  

There are some other names in terms of pen depth but it would be great to replace Peter's name with another legit guy.  

I'm totally fine with a platoon backup at C who a defensive whiz and handles the staff well.  I don't think we need to take what I think would be a big risk on McCann.  

That said, would I replace Bauer with Realmuto and just try to beat the crap out of the ball every game while adding some mediocre starter to complete the rotation?  Maybe.  It wouldn't be my first or probably even my second choice but I could live with that more than I could adding Jake Odorizzi as our primary pitching acquisition.  

I sorta doubt we'll pursue Realmuto due to his projected cost (20mil+ AAV).  I think with McCann, if they signed him, it'd be a max of 10mil/yr, and then they can pivot and trade for one of Gray/Snell, who both cost ~10mil/yr.  

Going with what that one account said, if they can get Quintana around 7-8mil on a 1 year deal, the question is, which would you prefer?  Gray/Snell, McCann, and Quintana vs. Bauer + whatever prospects we would have had to ship for Gray/Snell?

Option #1 could probably lead to a better overall team, at least this year.  Obviously long-term, it would depend on which prospects we are shipping out to get either Gray/Snell.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Warfarin said:

I sorta doubt we'll pursue Realmuto due to his projected cost (20mil+ AAV).  I think with McCann, if they signed him, it'd be a max of 10mil/yr, and then they can pivot and trade for one of Gray/Snell, who both cost ~10mil/yr.  

Going with what that one account said, if they can get Quintana around 7-8mil on a 1 year deal, the question is, which would you prefer?  Gray/Snell, McCann, and Quintana vs. Bauer + whatever prospects we would have had to ship for Gray/Snell?

Option #1 could probably lead to a better overall team, at least this year.  Obviously long-term, it would depend on which prospects we are shipping out to get either Gray/Snell.

gray or snell make 11m.  McCann will make about 10m and Quintana about 8 or 9.  That's close to 30m.  

If we get Bauer I think there'd be enough room for 2021 to add another guy in the 6-7m range somewhere.  Like a decent 4th OFer or a very good reliever.  Or a ok 4th OFer and a decent reliever.  

I'd probably favor the Bauer option. 

I think it's gonna hurt bad to get Gray or Snell from a prospect standpoint.  I'm not sold on McCann being worth 10m per for 4 years and Quintana doesn't blow up my skirt.  

I've got a good feeling that Bauer is going to have sustained success for the next 3-4 years at least.   

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I sorta doubt we'll pursue Realmuto due to his projected cost (20mil+ AAV).  I think with McCann, if they signed him, it'd be a max of 10mil/yr, and then they can pivot and trade for one of Gray/Snell, who both cost ~10mil/yr.  

Going with what that one account said, if they can get Quintana around 7-8mil on a 1 year deal, the question is, which would you prefer?  Gray/Snell, McCann, and Quintana vs. Bauer + whatever prospects we would have had to ship for Gray/Snell?

Option #1 could probably lead to a better overall team, at least this year.  Obviously long-term, it would depend on which prospects we are shipping out to get either Gray/Snell.

btw, I'd even consider going all in and adding Bauer and trading for Snell or Gray.  Seeing if Bauer would take a little less that first year to make the money work.  Then maybe trading Sandoval or Barria for the best reliever/C/OFer you can get.  

[Warfarin]

16 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

gray or snell make 11m.  McCann will make about 10m and Quintana about 8 or 9.  That's close to 30m.  

If we get Bauer I think there'd be enough room for 2021 to add another guy in the 6-7m range somewhere.  Like a decent 4th OFer or a very good reliever.  Or a ok 4th OFer and a decent reliever.  

I'd probably favor the Bauer option. 

I think it's gonna hurt bad to get Gray or Snell from a prospect standpoint.  I'm not sold on McCann being worth 10m per for 4 years and Quintana doesn't blow up my skirt.  

I've got a good feeling that Bauer is going to have sustained success for the next 3-4 years at least.   

I think Gray's prospect could would be considerably less than Snell.  I think Snell would command Adell + others, whereas Gray probably wouldn't require Adell.  

I wouldn't touch McCann at 4/40.  I was thinking max of 3/25 or so.  If the Mets are offering 4/40, then that's fine, there are other fish (catchers) in the sea.

I'd prefer us go all in, but if we end up doing Gray/Quintana/McCann, I think that'd be okay.  Gray is projected at 3.4 fWAR, Quintana at 1.7, and McCann at 1.1 - so those are all definitely upgrades.  We'd just need to find a LHH OF to complete the picture.

 

[CanadianHalo]

If the Angels end up spending 20 out of the remaining 30 million-ish on Quintana and McCann, Arte may as well call back the guy who finished second to Minasian and ask him if he’s still interested in the job. Unless the plan is to waste another 5 years like Billy did

[tdawg87]

14 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

If the Angels end up spending 20 out of the remaining 30 million-ish on Quintana and McCann, Arte may as well call back the guy who finished second to Minasian and ask him if he’s still interested in the job. Unless the plan is to waste another 5 years like Billy did

There's this thing called "Trades". It's a cool concept. You can trade pieces for players you need without necessarily adding a ton of payroll.

[Docwaukee]

57 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I think Gray's prospect could would be considerably less than Snell.  I think Snell would command Adell + others, whereas Gray probably wouldn't require Adell.  

I wouldn't touch McCann at 4/40.  I was thinking max of 3/25 or so.  If the Mets are offering 4/40, then that's fine, there are other fish (catchers) in the sea.

I'd prefer us go all in, but if we end up doing Gray/Quintana/McCann, I think that'd be okay.  Gray is projected at 3.4 fWAR, Quintana at 1.7, and McCann at 1.1 - so those are all definitely upgrades.  We'd just need to find a LHH OF to complete the picture.

 

it cost Dunning and a lotto ticket for 1yr of Lance Lynn.  And he's been no better than Gray.  I think Cin is gonna want Adell.  I think they get a top prospect and another from a team's top 10 at least.  So if it doesn't cost Adell, it's gonna cost Marsh and probably one of Detmers, Rodriguez or Koch.  

He's been very very good the last two years.  He's got two outliers in 2016 where he was injured and 2018 where he couldn't handle NY.  

 

[CanadianHalo]

22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

it cost Dunning and a lotto ticket for 1yr of Lance Lynn.  And he's been no better than Gray.  I think Cin is gonna want Adell.  I think they get a top prospect and another from a team's top 10 at least.  So if it doesn't cost Adell, it's gonna cost Marsh and probably one of Detmers, Rodriguez or Koch.  

He's been very very good the last two years.  He's got two outliers in 2016 where he was injured and 2018 where he couldn't handle NY.  

 

Gray mentioned that part of the problem in NY was also the fact that analytically they were 2 years behind. Gray would ask for certain data and they didn’t have it. 
 

 

[angelsnationtalk]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Bundy, Heaney, Canning and Barria were all solid or better. They accounted for 39 of the team's 60 starts. The other 21 starts were from Teheran (dogshit), Sandoval (bad, but also somewhat unlucky), Ohtani (astronomic dogshit), Suarez (ditto), Andriese, and Peters.

In other words, two-thirds of the starts were pretty good, one third horrible. Now imagine replacing that one third horrible to even just decent. That means a bad rotation becomes an average one. 

The point being, the rotation as is--with no additions--projects to be about average, plus or minus depending upon various factors. Adding a starter or two makes it good.

 

7 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Seems a bit unfair to lump Bundy and Heaney in that.  He was #5 in the AL in fWAR last year.  Heaney was ranked #17.  Bundy was great and Heaney was very solid.

 

8 hours ago, floplag said:

Define solid?  All but Barria are projected in the same range as May/Urias which most here would kill to get by those numbers.  Im not sure i fully buy that but i also think they have been scapegoated a bit. 
 

Okay I agree, maybe Bundy is the one guy to leave out of this. 

Angels ranked 29th in starting ERA (5.52) in 2020. 

Sure, take away over the years with Cahill, Harvey, Teheran and others and you get "average". I'm pretty sure average doesn't get you deep into the playoffs. 
I get the points, I really do, but I can care less about the advanced analytics because they haven't worked. At all. 

We've all gotten so used to hoping for a mediocre rotation that's it's getting sad. Heaney needs to drastically improve to even be considered solid.

[angelsnationtalk]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

btw, I'd even consider going all in and adding Bauer and trading for Snell or Gray.  Seeing if Bauer would take a little less that first year to make the money work.  Then maybe trading Sandoval or Barria for the best reliever/C/OFer you can get.  

If Arte feels like going all in then he should open payroll and let Minasian go hard after Bauer and then not stop there. Let them flip prospects for one of Gray/Marquez/Snell to revamp the rotation. Do I think Bauer fixes the rotation? No. It's going to take 2 solid arms up top to give this team the real rotation depth playoff teams need. (assuming Canning isn't traded it'd look like this)

Bauer, Snell, Bundy, Ohtani, Canning, Heaney. 

This is the rotation that gets deep into playoffs. Not just adding Bauer.

[tdawg87]

37 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

We've all gotten so used to hoping for a mediocre rotation that's it's getting sad. Heaney needs to drastically improve to even be considered solid.

IMO we've all got far higher aspirations than that. 

Also, I think Heaney is what he is. I think you're underselling him significantly. He's still young enough to perhaps tap into his full potential for a couple years (like Bundy seemingly has) but even if he doesn't, he's pretty much the definition of a solid 3-4 starter. He misses bats at a very good rate, doesn't walk a ton of guys or give up a ton of hits. His problem, like most Angels pitchers, has been the long ball.

If he puts up another year like 2020 behind Bundy and HOPEFULLY someone like Gray/Snell or Bauer, we're in pretty good shape.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

 

 

Okay I agree, maybe Bundy is the one guy to leave out of this. 

Angels ranked 29th in starting ERA (5.52) in 2020. 

Sure, take away over the years with Cahill, Harvey, Teheran and others and you get "average". I'm pretty sure average doesn't get you deep into the playoffs. 
I get the points, I really do, but I can care less about the advanced analytics because they haven't worked. At all. 

We've all gotten so used to hoping for a mediocre rotation that's it's getting sad. Heaney needs to drastically improve to even be considered solid.

not true about heaney at all.  FIP just above 4 over the last three years.  He's a bit light on innings but he's pitched the same number as Snell over the past three years.  Of the guys who have pitched more than 300 innings over the past three years, he's middle of the pack in WAR and 38th in FIP.  He's quite the definition of solid.  

Would like like him to be our 4th guy out?  Sure.  Would I accept him as our #3?  probably.  

And don't assume that we've seen everything that Cannings got.  He's 24.  

I know it's a tough ask, but people need to get past the 'everyone is gonna get injured and we need 11 pitchers just in case' bs PTSD.  It doesn't work like that.  

Also, when you compare playoff rotations, you can just remember historical outliers like those of recent past from the Astros or Nats.  And even those pitching staffs were actually mediocre during the WS.  

@Angelsjunky did a nice write up a while back about how you don't really need a bunch of #1 starters to win.  

Having a Teheran in your rotation or similar production over a whole season is as catastrophic as having an Ace is beneficial.  20 of the teams starts last year ended up with -1.7 WAR.  Prorated over 162 games is -5 WAR in 54 starts.  A couple of 2 WAR pitchers replacing that is 9 wins.  Bauer and a 2 WAR pitcher replacing that is 11 wins.  

I do think we could use two starters and I would very much love to have Bauer and Marquez (that would be my absolute dream off season), but a couple lesser guys still makes this team a lot better.  

 

[Docwaukee]

Also, there is no way in hell Minasian is going to put himself in a position to have to replace 4/5ths of the rotation in 2022.  He'll absolutely get at least one guy who will be here for more than 1yr and if it's only one then I think he'll lock up either Bundy or Heaney to an extension.  

[Warfarin]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

not true about heaney at all.  FIP just above 4 over the last three years.  He's a bit light on innings but he's pitched the same number as Snell over the past three years.  Of the guys who have pitched more than 300 innings over the past three years, he's middle of the pack in WAR and 38th in FIP.  He's quite the definition of solid.  

Would like like him to be our 4th guy out?  Sure.  Would I accept him as our #3?  probably.  

And don't assume that we've seen everything that Cannings got.  He's 24.  

I know it's a tough ask, but people need to get past the 'everyone is gonna get injured and we need 11 pitchers just in case' bs PTSD.  It doesn't work like that.  

Also, when you compare playoff rotations, you can just remember historical outliers like those of recent past from the Astros or Nats.  And even those pitching staffs were actually mediocre during the WS.  

@Angelsjunky did a nice write up a while back about how you don't really need a bunch of #1 starters to win.  

Having a Teheran in your rotation or similar production over a whole season is as catastrophic as having an Ace is beneficial.  20 of the teams starts last year ended up with -1.7 WAR.  Prorated over 162 games is -5 WAR in 54 starts.  A couple of 2 WAR pitchers replacing that is 9 wins.  Bauer and a 2 WAR pitcher replacing that is 11 wins.  

I do think we could use two starters and I would very much love to have Bauer and Marquez (that would be my absolute dream off season), but a couple lesser guys still makes this team a lot better.  

 

This ia a great response.

@angelsnationtalk, I hear what you are saying and I do agree that our SP, collectively, has been bad.  But as outlined above, to me, the biggest culprit in our awful rotation has been awful SP depth.  Bundy was fantastic.  Heaney was very solid, definitely a nice #3 SP.  Canning had some struggles, but overall, you could say he was a very solid SP4 last year, and Barria had some nice flashes.  But unfortunately, given how shallow we are in depth, we had to run out a bunch of awful SP too - Teheran, Peters, Ohtani (just last year), etc.  And those awful starts really tanked our chances and really showed the importance of having SP depth.

So to me, that is what I hope we see this offseason - I want to see Minasian acquire SP depth.  Bauer would be great, but if he limits everything else we can do, maybe the idea of a Gray or Snell + Quintana (or someone similar) would be more useful.  Barria can be placed in the bullpen, while Sandoval and Suarez can both pitch in AAA as SPs.  When an inevitable injury occurs, Sandoval can be the next man up, and he should be, at worst, a serviceable SP.

That's the key thing - having a number of guys who can, at least, give you a competitive start and not require you to dip into the bullpen by the 2nd or 3rd inning, which we had to do a lot last year.

[tdawg87]

I think you get depth by adding Bauer. 

I'm not a "Bauer or Bust" person, but if he gets signed, our rotation looks like this:

Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria/Sandoval/Ohtani/Suarez. That's 8 pitchers deep with Pena as an emergency guy.

@Dochalo mentioned that we want 11 pitchers for the "inevitable injuries" but that's not really a good way to set up a rotation. It's not about quantity as much as quality. 

You need depth, absolutely. But adding that frontline guy pushes everyone back. Now let's say the Angels add Musgrove too (purely hypothetical, not advocating for him). This would be our rotation:

Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Musgrove, Canning, Barria/Sandoval/Suarez/Ohtani.

That's insane depth, especially because I think Sandoval has #4 upside, and Ohtani could be even better than Bauer.

So my rant is basically: We don't need "depth guys". We need good pitchers to push the other guys back. This is why I think it's imperative we get two starters. 

[Warfarin]

18 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think you get depth by adding Bauer. 

I'm not a "Bauer or Bust" person, but if he gets signed, our rotation looks like this:

Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Barria/Sandoval/Ohtani/Suarez. That's 8 pitchers deep with Pena as an emergency guy.

@Dochalo mentioned that we want 11 pitchers for the "inevitable injuries" but that's not really a good way to set up a rotation. It's not about quantity as much as quality. 

You need depth, absolutely. But adding that frontline guy pushes everyone back. Now let's say the Angels add Musgrove too (purely hypothetical, not advocating for him). This would be our rotation:

Bauer, Bundy, Heaney, Musgrove, Canning, Barria/Sandoval/Suarez/Ohtani.

That's insane depth, especially because I think Sandoval has #4 upside, and Ohtani could be even better than Bauer.

So my rant is basically: We don't need "depth guys". We need good pitchers to push the other guys back. This is why I think it's imperative we get two starters. 

Sure, I see this too.  With Barria though, the one issue is he doesn't have any options remaining, so if he isn't in the rotation, he is pitching in relief, and isn't really SP depth.  He could get stretched out, sure, but he'd have to do it in the MLB, which is difficult to do.  That's why it's key to have some guys like Sandoval, Suarez, etc in AAA who are already stretched out and can be recalled to start immediately.

But yeah, I do agree that mission #1 is to improve the rotation at the big league level immediately, and it does create the cascade of having guys like Sandoval and Suarez in AAA who will be stretched out as depth.

[CanadianHalo]

AW last year: We don’t need 3 more starting pitchers!

We add Bundy

AW this year: We need two more starting pitchers!

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

AW last year: We don’t need 3 more starting pitchers!

We add Bundy

AW this year: We need two more starting pitchers!

What is context

[eligrba]

11 hours ago, CanadianHalo said:

If the Angels end up spending 20 out of the remaining 30 million-ish on Quintana and McCann, Arte may as well call back the guy who finished second to Minasian and ask him if he’s still interested in the job. Unless the plan is to waste another 5 years like Billy did

You should wait at least until January before giving up.  The illusion of hope is best savored.

[eligrba]

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Also, I think Heaney is what he is.

Heaney is a pussy.  I would never put any thought into having him pitch any game having great meaning.  I think Heaney should be traded for young controllable arms.  Yes, he has pretty good numbers, but has no heart.  He becomes C.J. Wilson when things get dicey.

[tdawg87]

8 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Heaney is a pussy.  I would never put any thought into having him pitch any game having great meaning.  I think Heaney should be traded for young controllable arms.  Yes, he has pretty good numbers, but has no heart.  He becomes C.J. Wilson when things get dicey.

Maybe so. But at the end of the year, he's been a pretty good #3 pitcher.

Also, who is going to trade "young controllable arms" for Heaney? That doesn't make sense.

[eligrba]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

Also, who is going to trade "young controllable arms" for Heaney? That doesn't make sense.

Apologies.....I thought this was AW where making sense was left at the door.  Did someone change the expectations?

[tdawg87]

[Junkballer]

It will be interesting how Minasian and his staff evaluate our prospects and how that affects going after SP trades.  While getting Bauer leaves prospect currency in the bank for other moves, it tightens payroll flexibility for several years even with other big contracts dropping off.  Going after Snell +1 through trade and seeing how they manage the prospect list is interesting  The cost will be high, but Minasian may be confident in his staffs ability to draft, procure and prune a restructured farm.  Bauer may be financially possible but Snell or similar gives Minasian more elbow room in the overall scheme.  My guess is that he is prepared for Bauers ask being too high anyway. 

[floplag]

9 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

 

 

Okay I agree, maybe Bundy is the one guy to leave out of this. 

Angels ranked 29th in starting ERA (5.52) in 2020. 

Sure, take away over the years with Cahill, Harvey, Teheran and others and you get "average". I'm pretty sure average doesn't get you deep into the playoffs. 
I get the points, I really do, but I can care less about the advanced analytics because they haven't worked. At all. 

We've all gotten so used to hoping for a mediocre rotation that's it's getting sad. Heaney needs to drastically improve to even be considered solid.

No one is suggesting they dont need help, only that the staff as a whole isnt shit.  IF we got a Bauer at the top for example it pushes everyone down a rung and get much better much faster.  Either way were not replacing all of them.  
The projections dont suck, if they hold up.
No ace in their and no one thats going to likely win a Cy... but thats not going to be where our bread is buttered anyway.