AL West Title path for Halos?

[Rally Gorilla]

I've been kind of resigned to the fact that the Astros will take the AL West again in 2020.   They'll be weaker this year with the loss of Cole and others, but they still have a boatload of talent and they esepcially outshine us in the SP department. 

However, the thought just struck me that....maybe...   we got a shot at the AL West this season.     Here is is the logic fueling my clearly homerish dream:

1)  With Cole gone, they will be relying more heavily on Verlander and Grienke.    Grienke will be 36 with 2,800 IP on his arm....Verlander, 37 with nearly 3,000 IP.    Maybe they finish 1 & 2 in CY voting.  Maybe they both lose effectiveness through injury or just age.

2)  Without knowing when the changup is coming, it'll be harder for their hitters to stay in the groove.   Maybe some will be unaffected, while others see their numbers drop.

3)   Whatever penalties the MLB may hand out to the 'Stros.

4)  The Astros may be a bit demoralized over being outed as cheaters...and the resulting scorn as they travel.

5)  Finally, maybe everything gels for the Angels and we just kick butt  in 2020,  passing up the A's and others.

I dream a dream....

[Angel Dog and Beer]

Rearranging the numbers in 2002 gets you 2020. It's meant to be. 

[zenmaster]

Don't get hurt. A couple starting pitchers step it up.

[Dick B Back]

10 minutes ago, Rally Gorilla said:

homerish dream:

 

 

Someone will be in their bunk.

[Angelsfan1984]

1. Stay healthy

2. Houston should not be nearly as good over the length of the season given how many departures they had.

3. League average pitching with the additions of Teheran and Bundy and absence of Cahill and Harvey

4. More production in front of and behind Trout with a healthy Upton and Rendon

5. Better managing (especially pitching coach)

 

 

[Adam]

1. Win as many games as they can

2. Hope that every other team has at least 1 less win at the end of the season

3. drink budweiser with those stupid goggle ons

4. Get bounced in 3 by the Rays

[Second Base]

The path to a surprise AL West championship for the Angels doesn't reside in other teams fading as much as it resides in the Angels receiving surprise performances and remaining healthy.

It would take the following

1. The rotation: Health. Then after that, Ohtani is an ace, Canning develops into a mid rotation starter, Bundy and Teheran use their sinkers effectively and they reach a new level. Sandoval develops into a Heaney type of #4 starter.

2. The youth take a major step forward. Jo Adell is a legitimate star from April on. Either Upton is back to form, or Marsh is really good as his replacement. La Stella or Thaiss take over the majority platoon role at 1B and are productive.

3. The bullpen all performs as expected. Robles is still one of the better closers in baseball, Middleton is lights out, Buttrey takes a step forward in consistency and some of the low cost arms work out. 

4. This one is so important I'll list it twice. Health. Everyone on the roster stays HEALTHY. 

5. Maddon and Callaway really do make a big difference. However you want to quantify that.

----------

If all those happen, I don't think it matters much what the other teams do, the Angels would win the AL West. 

Edited January 10, 2020 by Second Base

[hangin n wangin]

Don't get injured. Don't die.

[floplag]

I'm skeptical there is a path in 20 as we sit today, but anything is possible. 
Hou will fall back some for various reasons but even dropping 10 games still puts them in the upper 90s
Oak, well ive said before they perplex the hell out of me and are a pain to predict.   I didnt think they were 97 wins good last year, i still dont, but they will find i way to be a pain in the ass.
Right now, i think were a mid to upper 80s win team, with luck low to mid 90s, which means we still need more to get to that level.
The AL wildcard is going to be an absolute dogfight this year with as many as 6 teams in it.
The window is opening, but we still need more to be in that picture in my opinion be it another arm, another bat, both, whatever... i just dont think were there yet. 

[greginpsca]

1. Starting pitchers need to consistently get to the 6th inning or finish the 6th or longer, keeping the team no more than 2 runs behind. Then offence takes over.

2. Bullpen is consistently solid.

3.Hitters have career average seasons or better.

4. Adell has a big rookie season.

5. Have really strong records against teams in other divisions, and against Texas and Seattle. And hold their own against A's and Astro's.

6. Defense plays better then even expected.

7. Health, Health, Health!

 

[failos]

some really terrific fan fiction here.

[John Taylor]

The best part about the upcoming season is the fact it hasn't been played yet, so the outcome isn't determined no matter what the analytic nerds or prognosticators say.

 

Unless you're the Mariners, at which point you might as well just forfeit the season.

[Revad]

4 hours ago, Φαήλος said:

some really terrific fan fiction here.

True, agreed.  The way I understand the OP the ask was to describe a path (or set of conditions) that allows the Angels to take the division.  If that doesn’t call for a bit of fan fiction I don’t know what will.

[Claude]

5 hours ago, Φαήλος said:

some really terrific fan fiction here.

The Great Gazoo couldn’t have come up with a better scenario. 

[Stradling]

We are playing well until the deadline, the Mets aren’t playing well at the deadline.  We make a move for one of their starting pitchers.  We stay healthy in the pitching staff.   Ohtani pitches like we expect him to pitch in 2021 after being fully recovered.  Heaney pitches more like 2018 than 2019.  Canning takes the big step forward with control and throwing efficient innings, the stuff is there, he just throws a lot of pitches.  Trout goes into crazy mode with “protection” in the line up.  Adell comes up and plays like a rookie of the year and is comfortably batting in the 6 range in the line up.  Healthy years from Upton and Simmons and being in that 3-5 WAR range.  While this is happening the Astros two starting pitchers who are 36 and 37 start to show their age, with either lack of health or diminishing skill set. 

The line up looks solid, really solid.

La Stella

Trout

Rendon

Ohtani

Upton

Adell

Castro

Simmons

Fletcher

[eligrba4ever]

AL West title path for Halos?

Yeah. Why not? It's January.

And Goody wants more money.

[kevinb]

Angels will win the west. They have the pitching. Offense. Defense. Stars. Management. Time for the Angels to reign again. 

[beatlesrule]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

We are playing well until the deadline, the Mets aren’t playing well at the deadline.  We make a move for one of their starting pitchers.  We stay healthy in the pitching staff.   Ohtani pitches like we expect him to pitch in 2021 after being fully recovered.  Heaney pitches more like 2018 than 2019.  Canning takes the big step forward with control and throwing efficient innings, the stuff is there, he just throws a lot of pitches.  Trout goes into crazy mode with “protection” in the line up.  Adell comes up and plays like a rookie of the year and is comfortably batting in the 6 range in the line up.  Healthy years from Upton and Simmons and being in that 3-5 WAR range.  While this is happening the Astros two starting pitchers who are 36 and 37 start to show their age, with either lack of health or diminishing skill set. 

The line up looks solid, really solid.

La Stella

Trout

Rendon

Ohtani

Upton

Adell

Castro

Simmons

Fletcher

 

 

You spelled Pujols wrong.

[Docwaukee]

Trout missed 20 games
LaStella - 80 games
Ohtani - 50 games
Simmons - 50 games
Upton - 90 games and even when he played, he wasn't great.  

that's about 2 players worth of games missed by our core group

Cozart, Bour, Lucroy, Bourjos combined for -2.1 WAR in about 180 games.  

We added a 5+ win player in Rendon.

Albert got -0.4 wins because he was forced to play 131 games due to others' injuries.    

I know this sounds a little crazy, but I think there's 12-15 wins there from the guys we've subtracted, having guys in the lineup, the addition of Rendon, and limiting Alberts' at bats.  The loss of Calhoun could hurt unless Goodwin fills in solidly until Adell is ready and he hits the ground running.  I also think we could see greater contributions from Thaiss and Rengifo this year.  Like giving Rendon the occasional DH day and putting Fletch at 3b with Rengifo at 2b.  Or putting Fletch in RF with Rengifo at 2b on some days.  We also have very good depth on the offensive side should anyone get injured outside of Rendon and Trout of course.  

This is going to be one of the top 3 offenses in baseball.  

and that's without even talking about pitching yet.  

Getting Ohtani back is so huge even if he only pitches about 120-140 inning.  Getting an era around 4 would make him a 2-2.5 win pitcher and immediately replaces the -1.0 wins from the Cahill and Harvey innings as starters.  Bundy is a reasonable replacement for Skaggs.  He'll pitch more innings than Skaggs would have but probably not perform quite as well as he would have.  So I think that's a wash.  I think Teheran outperforms his projects and puts up a 2-3 WAR year with 180ip.  More innings from Heaney.  More innings from Canning.  More innings from Sandoval.  I think that will place them squarely in the middle of the pack from a rotation standpoint and add 8-12 wins.  

The pen should be solid middle of the pack as well.  

So there's the path to 95 or so wins.  I think we're an 88 win team on paper right now so getting to 95 wins is not an act of god.  

The common theme from last year is that on both side of the ball, there were a ton of guys playing that had no business being on a baseball field.  More games and innings from the guys who should be out there will make for a quick turn around and a very good team.  

[wopphil]

Sign Castellanos and trade for Boyd. Lineup becomes one of the best in baseball, and the rotation picks up another 2 or 3 wins.

[Rally Gorilla]

8 hours ago, Φαήλος said:

some really terrific fan fiction here.

You really missed the whole point.   People are talking about possible paths for the Angels to win the AL West...not what will happen for sure.   

 

[Stradling]

56 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

You spelled Pujols wrong.

You misread the title of the thread. 

[Hubs]

One more starter or one starter emerging from the group of Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, and Pena to throw a Matt Shoemaker or Barria in 2018 season at a 3.5 or lower ERA... this team should be the favorite in the division. 
 

Over the last few years, I always wondered how the Astros were this good. Like it didn’t add up on paper, yes they had a good farm and a good young team but so many guys who were virtual cast offs or league average players had such good seasons. Now we know they were cheating with the Trash Can and buzzer bandaids. 

I expect them to get hammered. Even have a post season ban for 2020. That leaves the door wide open for the Angels.

Texas and the A’s will be good, but this Angels lineup is gonna be great. I have faith that Adell turns in a .270 / .345 / .485 season. Castro, LaStella, Pujols, Goodwin, and Thaiss will also be good offensively.

And I think Bundy, Heaney, and Canning all will have seasons that end with ERA’s between 3.75 and 4.25. Teheran and Ohtani will be lower than that. If they added Alex Wood or David Price, and that guy was able to turn in 3.75 ERA over 28-30 starts, that means this 6 man rotation would end up somewhere between 440 and 500 runs allowed for the rotation in around 1050 innings. That would be amazing. That leaves 400 innings for the pen, and likely a great performance.

So sign one more arm for the rotation or trade for one. I’d like another reliever, preferably a lefty. And we’re division contenders.

 

[Hubs]

One more thing, after they completed the sweep of the Dodgers in July, the 2019 Angels were 54-49. They finished the season 72-90, as we all know. That means they finished the final two months plus at 18-41. That’s why Ausmus lost his job. He lost the clubhouse. Bullpen management was terrible all season.

I think they’d have finished closer to .500 as they had the previous three seasons with Scioscia as manager. 18-41 is one of the worst 59 game stretches this team has had since the 90’s. It might be the worst. 

So from 80 or 83 wins, the jump to 95 with a better rotation, and an MVP candidate at 3rd base isn’t that big of a leap.

[nate]

Avoiding injuries, Ohtani solid pitching and a bit of regression from the Astros.  Going to be a tough division to win but not impossible.  Obviously the starting pitching is the real problem and it hasn't significantly improved.