Astros Payroll

[Docwaukee]

I only bring this up as a separate top because I think it's relevant to the Angel's chances going forward.  

For 2020, they've got 157m in commitments plus an anticipated 62.2m in arb estimates.  And another 6m or so in pre arb guys.  

Which puts them at about 225m for next year without adding 

They could non tender Sanchez which would save them about 5m.  But they're also losing both Chirinos and Maldonado to free agency so they'll need at least one everyday C which could add another 6-7m which could get them above 230m.  

That's pretty hefty right there.  I just can't imagine a scenario where they add anyone else let alone trying to retain Cole.  

 

[kevinb]

In before something something no state income tax something...

[tdawg87]

But they know how to win.

[Claude]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

But they know how to spend.

 

[totdprods]

My hesitation to rule out Houston stems from something similar to what I read here a lot lately...that Arte can afford to lift payroll for a couple years to support the team’s chances at competition while the farm catches up to keep things sustainable.

Houston isn’t very different. Crane can afford it. This is possibly the tail-end of one of their windows. In a couple years, Greinke, Verlander, Correa, Springer, Brantley, Reddick, and Gurriel all drop from payroll, giving them plenty of relief again. And they still have a farm. And their current window to win championships is very strong. And he’s dramatically increased payroll over the last 4 years. He had years where he reaped in plenty of profit and fielded a strong, popular team that drew with a small payroll. And the Greinke trade could signal two things - an acknowledgement that Cole is going to walk, or a doubling down to win as much now while they have the pieces. 

I still think it’s extremely unlikely they go after Cole. But they also could surprise folks and consider trading Springer or Correa, or Reddick or Gurriel, to bring back prospects, bring back the next Gerrit Cole, save money for Cole, whatever, as they have plenty of minor league talent to bring up as replacements.

[tdawg87]

I would give up Adell and Marsh for Correa.

Fight me.

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I would give up Adell and Marsh for Correa.

Fight me.

I wouldn't.

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I would give up Adell and Marsh for Correa.

Fight me.

[Lou]

[tdawg87]

[Docwaukee]

16 minutes ago, totdprods said:

My hesitation to rule out Houston stems from something similar to what I read here a lot lately...that Arte can afford to lift payroll for a couple years to support the team’s chances at competition while the farm catches up to keep things sustainable.

Houston isn’t very different. Crane can afford it. This is possibly the tail-end of one of their windows. In a couple years, Greinke, Verlander, Correa, Springer, Brantley, Reddick, and Gurriel all drop from payroll, giving them plenty of relief again. And they still have a farm. And their current window to win championships is very strong. And he’s dramatically increased payroll over the last 4 years. He had years where he reaped in plenty of profit and fielded a strong, popular team that drew with a small payroll. And the Greinke trade could signal two things - an acknowledgement that Cole is going to walk, or a doubling down to win as much now while they have the pieces. 

I still think it’s extremely unlikely they go after Cole. But they also could surprise folks and consider trading Springer or Correa, or Reddick or Gurriel, to bring back prospects, bring back the next Gerrit Cole, save money for Cole, whatever, as they have plenty of minor league talent to bring up as replacements.

Getting Cole without moving anyone else would put them at like 250+ for 2020 and way over the CBT.  

It would make sense for them to trade Reddick but I just can't imagine he's worth anything on the open market.  

They'd probably have to move Springer to keep Cole.  I just don't see them doing that.  

and let's be honest.  All the owners can afford it.  Especially for a year or two.  My point is that I think they're already 'affording' it.  Meaning they're in that overage range without adding anything else.  

If Arte took payroll above 200 next year I think everyone would be like WTF?!! They're at 225 walking into Nov.  They have some money coming off the books soon, but like our farm, it's more bottom heavy.  We shall see.  

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Getting Cole without moving anyone else would put them at like 250+ for 2020 and way over the CBT.  

It would make sense for them to trade Reddick but I just can't imagine he's worth anything on the open market.  

They'd probably have to move Springer to keep Cole.  I just don't see them doing that.  

and let's be honest.  All the owners can afford it.  Especially for a year or two.  My point is that I think they're already 'affording' it.  Meaning they're in that overage range without adding anything else.  

If Arte took payroll above 200 next year I think everyone would be like WTF?!! They're at 225 walking into Nov.  They have some money coming off the books soon, but like our farm, it's more bottom heavy.  We shall see.  

My guess is that the Astros traded for Greinke in part to be Cole's replacement.  If they really were ready to go all-in on Cole, they would not have taken Greinke's contract.  Given all their salary commitments, I think it is very, very unlikely he returns there.

Likely, they are hoping Whiteley takes a step up, and that they have a new dominant trio next year - Verlander, Greinke, Whiteley.

[tdawg87]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Getting Cole without moving anyone else would put them at like 250+ for 2020 and way over the CBT.  

It would make sense for them to trade Reddick but I just can't imagine he's worth anything on the open market.  

They'd probably have to move Springer to keep Cole.  I just don't see them doing that.  

and let's be honest.  All the owners can afford it.  Especially for a year or two.  My point is that I think they're already 'affording' it.  Meaning they're in that overage range without adding anything else.  

If Arte took payroll above 200 next year I think everyone would be like WTF?!! They're at 225 walking into Nov.  They have some money coming off the books soon, but like our farm, it's more bottom heavy.  We shall see.  

200 million the next two years, then 170 in 2022 once Pujols is off the books. Maybe 180 of we include backloaded contracts starting to come to the surface. Back down to 158 after Upton comes off. Let's say 170 with backloaded contracts. 

Dude could do it. We all know he can.

Whether he will is a different story. But he absolutely can do it.

200 million gives them about 62 million to spend. 25 on Cole the first year, 18 on Wheeler the 1st year. Grandal is then an easy get.

God damnit Arte.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

48 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I would give up Adell and Marsh for Correa.

Fight me.

Correa is hurt too often...

[Warfarin]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

200 million the next two years, then 170 in 2022 once Pujols is off the books. Maybe 180 of we include backloaded contracts starting to come to the surface. Back down to 158 after Upton comes off. Let's say 170 with backloaded contracts. 

Dude could do it. We all know he can.

Whether he will is a different story. But he absolutely can do it.

200 million gives them about 62 million to spend. 25 on Cole the first year, 18 on Wheeler the 1st year. Grandal is then an easy get.

God damnit Arte.

You're hired!

But seriously, I do think the path to contention for us is pretty clear, as you nicely laid out there.

The key thing will be to have our farm system systematically start to graduate talent, so that we can good, young cheap players who will complement the expensive "splurges" like Cole, Wheeler, etc.

Adell and Marsh are close.  Jones has been iffy, but it looks like he's made some solid adjustments and can become a contributor.  SP is iffy, but there's some solid talent in hi/low A.  We've drafted a lot of middle infielders recently, so hopefully, we see them continue to take steps forward.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

You're hired!

But seriously, I do think the path to contention for us is pretty clear, as you nicely laid out there.

The key thing will be to have our farm system systematically start to graduate talent, so that we can good, young cheap players who will complement the expensive "splurges" like Cole, Wheeler, etc.

Adell and Marsh are close.  Jones has been iffy, but it looks like he's made some solid adjustments and can become a contributor.  SP is iffy, but there's some solid talent in hi/low A.  We've drafted a lot of middle infielders recently, so hopefully, we see them continue to take steps forward.

I think Canning takes a big step forward in 2020. I also believe Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval are solid 4/5 options going forward. Soriano has 2/3 upside. C Rod has 1-2 upside.

Just need guys to step up. IMO it happens this year.

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think Canning takes a big step forward in 2020. I also believe Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval are solid 4/5 options going forward. Soriano has 2/3 upside. C Rod has 1-2 upside.

Just need guys to step up. IMO it happens this year.

Yessir.

*IF* we added Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal, I truly think we'll be a strong WC contender, and pave a path to be a legit contender for years.

Next year - Cole, Wheeler, Ohtani (80-100 IP), Heaney, Canning, with Barria/Suarez/Sandoval alternating in the 6th SP role as you said, maybe even Pena.  That's actually a very solid rotation, with 3 pitchers who have ace-like potential.  

Lineup:  LaStella 3B, Trout CF, Ohtani DH, Grandal C, Upton LF, Goodwin RF, Thaiss/Pujols 1B, Simba SS, Fletcher 2B.  Adell arrives by mid-season, pushing Goodwin to the bench.

Bench:  Smith C, Cozart IF, Ward 1B/3B, Thaiss 1B/3B, Hermosillo OF

Legit contender, IMO.

[tdawg87]

I'm moist just thinking about it.

Most likely Arte opts to sign Cole then goes the cheaper route for a 2nd starter and a catcher (as Doc has already stated), but to me that makes us a WC contender, not a favorite as we should be. Cole, Wheeler and Grandal puts us in position to give Houston a run for their money. 

Arte can do it. 

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm moist just thinking about it.

Most likely Arte opts to sign Cole then goes the cheaper route for a 2nd starter and a catcher (as Doc has already stated), but to me that makes us a WC contender, not a favorite as we should be. Cole, Wheeler and Grandal puts us in position to give Houston a run for their money. 

Arte can do it. 

Yep.  I think we have enough minor league talent in the OF and IF to effectively cover us there in the upcoming years, as well as SP further down the road.  At the moment, we definitely need legit SP talent now, as well as a legit catcher now.  Those 3 moves should add roughly 12-15 WAR to our team, which vaults us up considerably and makes us, in all likelihood, a 90+ win team, with our farm system poised to start graduating more talent to help future runs.

[Pancake Bear]

I think if Arte had confidence that those guys would be the difference makers, he would be much more likely to go all in. 

Missing on Pujols and Hamilton hasn’t given him a lot of confidence. Spending that much money can put the team in a really tough position for years if the contract goes south. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I would give up Adell and Marsh for Correa.

Fight me.

I wouldn't. A couple years ago, Fangraphs mentioned Correa as one of the contenders for replacing Trout as best player in the majors - that was after he had two 5 WAR seasons in a row at age 21-22. Since then he's accrued 4.8 over two sesons, age 23-24. Still a really good player, but he hasn't played in more than 110 games in the last three years, meaning no mater how good he is, he has a hard time staying healthy.

Adell could be as good as Correa, and Marsh almost as good. 

[Angelsjunky]

As for the OP, I didn't realize the Astros had that much invested payroll. It will be interesting to see how they transition, or how they are able to maintain a contending team. I think where a lot of teams go wrong is trying to keep the same team intact, and not accepting that some ups and down are inevitable and learning how to "ride the tides."

The Red Sox are the only team with four World Series championships in the 21st century, all four within the last 15 years (2004, 2007, 2013, 2018). notice they're all 3-6 years apart. They seem to be heading into another "fallow" period, but my guess is they're really good again in two or three years, even after Betts leaves.

The Astros can either go all in and optimize their chances over the next half decade or so (the "Altuve-Bregman Window" through 2024) but risk sucking after that, or they can start dis-assembling after 2020 or so, and accept a down-turn for a few years, before getting really good again by 2024, Altuve/Bregman's last year.

If they do accept a 2021-23ish down-turn, that would also correspond well with when the Angels should start getting really good.

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I think Canning takes a big step forward in 2020. I also believe Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval are solid 4/5 options going forward. Soriano has 2/3 upside. C Rod has 1-2 upside.

Just need guys to step up. IMO it happens this year.

Every pitcher will improve with the new pitching coach....Bank on it.

[Taylor]

Which Astro's payroll?

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

I think if Arte had confidence that those guys would be the difference makers, he would be much more likely to go all in. 

Missing on Pujols and Hamilton hasn’t given him a lot of confidence. Spending that much money can put the team in a really tough position for years if the contract goes south. 

And this is something people need to realize. Fans, media, etc.

Arte is RICH. Rich people still dont like losing money. Any more than you or I do.

Hamilton, CJ Wilson, Wells and Pujols werent cheap. They were like a boat.... fun when you bought it, had tons and tons of problems, finally sold it at a loss. And your wife and kids keep telling you to buy a new one.

Again, Im all for him spending this winter. Its time. But people need to cut some slack on why he hasnt spent his way out of this the last few years.