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How Much Would You Offer Simmons?


Angelsjunky

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We've beaten the Trout extension to death, but what about Simmons? He's paid $13M in 2019, $15M in 2020, and then is a free agent in 2021, at age 31.

As an Angel, he's produced WARs of 2.6, 5.1, and 5.5. That 5.5 last year was in 146 games vs. 5.1 in 158 games in 2017, so he's had a nice upward trajectory, mostly due to improvement with the bat: 90, 103, and 109 wRC+. He's also been very consistent with the glove, showing no signs of decline.

While he isn't at all similar physically, we could look at Ozzie Smith for a comparable player. Like Simmons, Smith transformed from an all-glove no-bat shortstop in his 20s to a still great glove and an above average bat in his 30s. Smith remained a premier shortstop through his age 37 season and was still pretty good for a couple more years. But again, Smith was 5'11", 150 lbs; Simmons is 6'2", 200 lbs...and I'm guessing that in this case, size does matter.

Cal Ripken is another player to look at and at 6'4", 225 lbs, is a bit more similar physically. Unlike Simmons and Smith, however, Ripken started out as a very good hitter and defender. He had his best year in 1991 at age 30, then was very good for another five years after before becoming a pretty average third baseman for a few years starting in 1997 at age 36.

In both cases, Smith and Ripken, they remained very good players in the first half of their 30s.

Now who knows how Simmons will age, but I think he's got a very good chance of being a very good player until his mid-30s. I would happily sign him to at least a 5-year extension (age 31-35), although he may require another year or two, depending upon how 2019-20 go. Unlike Trout, I would not talk extension until at least after 2019, maybe not even until within the 2020 season. My offer would be based upon his 2019-20 performance, with the following ranges:

Slighly worse (~4 WAR/year): 5/$100M

The same (~5 WAR/year): 6/$120M

Better (~6 WAR/year): 7/$150M

Or something like that. I wouldn't have him more than seven  years, and even that only if he took another step forward from what we've seen the last two years. To me the median is something like 6/120M. 

What about you?

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6 years 120 million for what will be a 31 year old shortstop?

Jesus you people over the value the shit out of our own guys. Major league and farm system players. 

A 4 year, 60 million dollar extension would be VERY generous to give someone like Simmons at 31. 

If he was hell bent on a 5th year I’d say 5/70 would be the absolute highest anyone would go. Simmons has peaked offensively and his defence can’t possibly get any better so...

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I tend to agree with @CanadianHalo.  I think that we should pump the breaks on talking about a large deal for Simmons.  I don’t believe that huge contracts should go out to players who are not significant offensive contributors.  I love Simba,  and he has made strides with the bat.  But if he were to regress much with the bat by the time his contract is up I would be very wary about the kind of deals you guys are talking about.

The D is great and of course very important.   It  is a scarcity thing.  Finding guys that are able to be effective everyday hitters is much more difficult than finding a guy who can field at an acceptable level.  

We’ll see with Simmons imo. 

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I think Simmons is going to age VERY well. While his range is going to decrease making him only great rather than other worldly in his mid-30's, his offense seems to be improving as he ages. So while he's a 5 win player right now, I believe Simmons will remain a 4-6 win player across the next half decade. 

Basically right now, he's on a 2 year 28 million dollar deal. Basically I'd extend him five more years at a 20 million clip on top of his current deal. 

So 7 years, 128 million. This ensures that potentially the greatest defensive shortstop of all time remains in an Angels uniform for over a decade. Meaning that if he rides into the Hall of Fame as I think he will at the end of his career, he'll go in wearing an Angel hat.

Flat out, when you want to keep something truly valuable, it costs a lot of money. It will cost a lot to keep Trout, a lot to keep Simmons, and someday, a lot to keep a Ohtani. 

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1 hour ago, Stradling said:

“5 years Eleventy Billion dollars”

- @ettin

https://thesportsdaily.com/2018/11/13/2019-angelswin-com-primer-series-financials-a1w1/

"For example if the Angels extend Andrelton Simmons to a 6-year, $102M deal, they can keep his 2019 salary at $13M but raise his AAV from $8.3M to $17M per season, thereby keeping actual payroll even while sponging up some of the excess AAV dollars available."

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It would be very unusual to offer an extension to someone his age, especially not this early. 

I think the Angels would want to wait at least until sometime in 2020 to get more on how he’s aging and at that point Simmons may not want to do it. 

It also depends what other SS’s will be FA’s after 2020. I have no idea, but that certainly impacts what he could get on the open market. 

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58 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

It would be very unusual to offer an extension to someone his age, especially not this early. 

I think the Angels would want to wait at least until sometime in 2020 to get more on how he’s aging and at that point Simmons may not want to do it. 

It also depends what other SS’s will be FA’s after 2020. I have no idea, but that certainly impacts what he could get on the open market. 

As of right now, Correa, Lindor, Seager, and Story are all set to hit FA the year after Simmons reaches FA, so there could be a few teams that hold off and wait for that crop. 

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Why not talk to him now and offer him 3 years/ 50-55 million. His agent probably wouldn't let him do it but who knows. Locks him thru 2023 and then......

When will ball clubs realize (I think they finally are) they can't carry dead weight of 35+ year olds no matter how good they were when they were  28 years old. That strategy has rarely worked well. I wonder how many times Albert's name gets mentioned in other players negotiations. Do you think Albert has hurt the FA market? 

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3 minutes ago, Rollinghard said:

Why not talk to him now and offer him 3 years/ 50-55 million. His agent probably wouldn't let him do it but who knows. Locks him thru 2023 and then......

When will ball clubs realize (I think they finally are) they can't carry dead weight of 35+ year olds no matter how good they were when they were  28 years old. That strategy has rarely worked well. I wonder how many times Albert's name gets mentioned in other players negotiations. Do you think Albert has hurt the FA market? 

Baseball dead weight is not measured by age.  Lots of clubs have 35+ year old players; some teams even signed FA's that will finish their contracts being older than 35.

Simmons is a core player at this point in the Angels rebuild.  I am confident that Simmons will be an Angel for the rest of his career, just like Mike Trout.  Players like him do not come along very often, and Eppler knows it.  Acquiring Simmons was one of the first moves he made as a new GM raising great concern on this forum.  Eppler knows what he is doing.

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