The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Docwaukee]

Marsh's wRC+ for this year is 138.  Which is park and league adjusted and puts him 6th in the league and 38% above league average.  

some of that is inflated by his .380 babip and he's also got a very high GB rate of 54.2% (2nd in the league).  

His ability as a pure hitter has really progressed this year as his walk rate has stayed the same and k rate has gone down.  If he can start elevating the ball, he's gonna be super dangerous.  

[Docwaukee]

also thinking that max kepler could be a good comp for Marsh.  

[ksangel]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

also thinking that max kepler could be a good comp for Marsh.  

How about Garret Anderson...developed power late after he made it to the bigs

[ScottT]

https://www.milb.com/orem/news/owlz-pummeled-by-vibes-13-2/c-310202880

Owlz Pummeled by Vibes, 13-2

	Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
W: Schultz, Paxton (1-2, 3.21) L: Randel, Ryan (0-1, 5.14) Recaps: Vibes | Owlz(Colorado Springs, CO) - The Rocky Mountain Vibes (26-33) scored the final 13 runs of the game as the Owlz (24-36) lost the series opener with the Vibes, 13-2 on Wendesday night at UCHealth Park.
	Owlz (24-36)	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7	2
	Vibes (26-33)	0	3	3	5	0	0	1	1	X	13	14	0

Anthony Mulrine gave the Owlz the lead first on Wednesday night, smashing a two-run homer in the second inning, his second of the season, giving the Owlz a 2-0 lead.

The lead didn't last long as the Vibes came back and scored three runs in the bottom of the second inning on a two-run homer off the bat of Cam Devanney and a solo homer from Jose Sibrian. The Vibes added to it in the third with their second three-run inning. Devanney drove in a pair with a double and then Nick Kahle drove in a run with a single, pushing the lead to 6-2. 

[ScottT]

Jackson isn't in the lineup. I think he's missed 3 of the last 4 games.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, ksangel said:

How about Garret Anderson...developed power late after he made it to the bigs

No. Garret never walked; Marsh will walk 70+ times a year in the bigs. Marsh is also faster and a much better athlete.

[ten ocho recon scout]

15 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm not saying this is applies to you but, I don't think people fully appreciate how difficult a hitting environment the Southern League is.   

The league average batting line is only a .681 OPS, and there are all of 9 hitters in the entire league with an OPS above 800.  Of those 9, only three are 23 or under; Marsh who is 21 and Braves' farmhands Drew Waters (now at AAA) and their #3 ranked prospect, and Christian Pache who is 20 and considered the #1 prospect in the Braves organization.    

Both Waters and Pache are top 100 guys.    Pache ranks 14th overall, Waters 29th overall.  

These are their BB and K totals while at AA, btw.

Waters - 28 BB/121 Ks - 420 ABs
Pache - 34 BB/104 Ks - 392 ABs
Marsh - 45 BB/83 Ks - 322 ABs

Marsh may be the Angels prospects Angels fans are most underrating.  Everyone wants to see the power but that plate discipline being where it is bodes well for his future.  

Im not as up on this stuff as you, Doc, tot, etc. But Marsh is more "interesting" to me than Adell almost. Meaning, Adell is looking cant miss, whereas Marsh (fingers crossed) is maybe going to be a super solid sleeper than no one knows yet.

Figure back to the pre jeets marlins. Adell is our stanton... hoping marsh is our (florida) yelich, or osuna.

Edit because someone will throw out numbers and argue that. So trout is our stanton, hopefully adell is our yellich and marsh our osuna.

Edited August 23, 2019 by ten ocho recon scout

[ten ocho recon scout]

55 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

No. Garret never walked

"He never ran either!" - AW

 

 

 

Or was cool at golf stores

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Im not as up on this stuff as you, Doc, tot, etc. But Marsh is more "interesting" to me than Adell almost. Meaning, Adell is looking cant miss, whereas Marsh (fingers crossed) is maybe going to be a super solid sleeper than no one knows yet.

Figure back to the pre jeets marlins. Adell is our stanton... hoping marsh is our (florida) yelich, or osuna.

Edit because someone will throw out numbers and argue that. So trout is our stanton, hopefully adell is our yellich and marsh our osuna.

I actually see a decent number of parallels with Marsh to Yelich if you compare them by age although Yelich is and was just a better pure hitter and Marsh will likely never come close to his ceiling.  But I think Marsh's power potential is there.  Some might call me crazy for making that statement as he's got to learn to elevate the ball which he hasn't shown as of yet.  So he still could end up like Kotchman who I see as another comp.  

btw, Adell went 3-5 tonight.  

[rafibomb]

 

 

 

First time getting a look at Soriano's stuff and damn it's nasty.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

btw, Adell went 3-5 tonight.  

 

27 minutes ago, RBM said:

Adell is in a good groove. After hitting 2 phantom HR's last night he went 3-5 with 2 RBI's tonight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDa6qc93nNs

[Second Base]

7 hours ago, rafibomb said:

 

 

 

First time getting a look at Soriano's stuff and damn it's nasty.

That's what I've been telling people all year. Though the videos have illuminated a point which will make or break Soriano, which is keeping the ball down.

I remember watching Garrett Richards back in A Ball and he was about as similar to Soriano as you can be. Fastball sat 93-95, slider had ridiculous bend to it. He'd sprinkle in that nasty curve of his and occasionally throw a change up just to make sure the batter knew he had it. The fastball had run to it as well. But his problem, a bunch of interior hitters would tag him at times because he left the ball up way too often. He wasn't putting it in spots where the hitters couldn't do any damage.

And he eventually developed into quite a bit more as we know. He learned to live low in the zone, he added about 3 ticks to his fastball and found a grip whichresulted in a comical yet unpredictable amount of movement.

That's what I'm hoping for from Soriano. That he can add another couple mph as he develops, can keep the ball lower in the zone and can more predictably make his ball dance in and out of the zone.

Edited August 23, 2019 by Second Base

[Docwaukee]

that breaking ball is ridiculous.  

If he starts throwing the ball where he wants, he's gonna be a #1.  

Delivery looks a bit rushed.  

[Angelsjunky]

I like Chris Rodriguez's upside slightly better than Soriano's, but Soriano seems like a much safer pick. With Canning and Suarez graduated as prospects, I think its safe to say that Soriano is our current top pitching prospect.

[tdawg87]

That stuff is legit. As others have said, his command will determine if he's a 4 starter/reliever or a #1.

[ksangel]

23 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

No. Garret never walked; Marsh will walk 70+ times a year in the bigs. Marsh is also faster and a much better athlete.

So Marsh is better prospect then Anderson, who was #2 prospect in 94 and 95 and is now all-time Angel leader in RBI's, HR's and doubles? Not arguing just trying to understand how good Marsh is now and projects to be. He's not Adell from what I read here but how good?

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, ksangel said:

So Marsh is better prospect then Anderson, who was #2 prospect in 94 and 95 and is now all-time Angel leader in RBI's, HR's and doubles? Not arguing just trying to understand how good Marsh is now and projects to be. He's not Adell from what I read here but how good?

GA and Marsh just aren't really comparable. Marsh has far better plate discipline and is one of the best athletes in the system. 

That doesn't mean he will be a better player than GA was. We would be lucky if Marsh can put up a 25 career WAR. 

But does he have potential to be better? Absolutely. 

Adell is a legit top prospect and will absolutely be a successful Major league baseball player. Marsh isn't quite there but he's unquestionably the 2nd best prospect in our system. He has a little ways to go but he could end up being a good MLB regular himself.

[Angelsjunky]

14 minutes ago, ksangel said:

So Marsh is better prospect then Anderson, who was #2 prospect in 94 and 95 and is now all-time Angel leader in RBI's, HR's and doubles? Not arguing just trying to understand how good Marsh is now and projects to be. He's not Adell from what I read here but how good?

Well, Marsh is probably the Angels' #2 prospect so there's a similarity there. But let's look at what GA was, to get a sense of comparison.

GA compiled 24 fWAR for his career with his two best seasons being 5.1 (which is into star territory) and 3.7 (good regular), five seasons in the 2-3 range (which is "solid regular"), and another five roughly replacement level. He hit .293/.324/.461 for his career, but a dead-average 100 wRC+. He was a pretty average player who just happened to play his entire career in an offense-inflated era, and accrued a lot of counting numbers due to longevity. I'm not bagging on him, I just think we need to see him for what he was.

Do I think Marsh can be that good? Yes, absolutely - and perhaps better due to better plate discipline, speed, and defense. I think a typical prime Marsh season will be somewhere in the 3-5 fWAR range, depending upon how his power develops. Best-case scenario and he's a 5+ fWAR player.

Adell is a more talented player and chances are will be better, but the gap between the two isn't as large as the hype would entail. But where Marsh is probably an good regular, maybe a borderline star and an outside chance at being a star, Adell is probably a borderline star, maybe a star, and a chance at being a superstar.

 

 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I like Chris Rodriguez's upside slightly better than Soriano's, but Soriano seems like a much safer pick. With Canning and Suarez graduated as prospects, I think its safe to say that Soriano is our current top pitching prospect.

I actually kinda see the opposite if Rodriguez stays healthy.  I guess that could be what you're referring to as far as being safer.  Soriano has #1 upside and Daniel Cabrera floor.  Whereas I think Rodriguez has the floor of a #3.  Still could be a #1 but I think Jose's raw stuff is better.  

I agree that right now Soriano is our #1 pitching prospect due to questions about Rodriguez health.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

I actually kinda see the opposite if Rodriguez stays healthy.  I guess that could be what you're referring to as far as being safer.  Soriano has #1 upside and Daniel Cabrera floor.  Whereas I think Rodriguez has the floor of a #3.  Still could be a #1 but I think Jose's raw stuff is better.  

I agree that right now Soriano is our #1 pitching prospect due to questions about Rodriguez health.  

I call Soriano safer because of Rodriguez's health concerns.

The control is a concern for Soriano, but if and when he figures it out, he could advance very quickly. With Rodriguez it feels like all he has to do is stay healthy and he will advance quickly as well.

 

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

that breaking ball is ridiculous.  

If he starts throwing the ball where he wants, he's gonna be a #1.  

Delivery looks a bit rushed.  

He's always kept his delivery fast.

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I like Chris Rodriguez's upside slightly better than Soriano's, but Soriano seems like a much safer pick. With Canning and Suarez graduated as prospects, I think its safe to say that Soriano is our current top pitching prospect.

I've always been more partial to Soriano. He's remained healthier, shows the same velocity with a better breaking ball and more projectable frame. 

[Angel Oracle]

Marsh’s .383 OBP is now second in the Southern League, just .003 behind the leader, at age 21.

Let that sink in.

Maybe 2020-ASB promotion to the parent club?

Leadoff guy here until the power develops?   Also has 17 for 22 SBs.

[totdprods]

19 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Marsh’s .383 OBP is now second in the Southern League, just .003 behind the leader, at age 21.

Let that sink in.

Maybe 2020-ASB promotion to the parent club?

Leadoff guy here until the power develops?   Also has 17 for 22 SBs.

I don’t think he’s far behind Adell, to be honest. And his skill set - defense, baserunning, decent discipline and contact, might even make him a hair more MLB-ready than Adell, purely from a “he can man an outfield slot defensively and whatever he contributes with the bat, great” stance than Adell. 

Goodwin’s strong play recently - and Hermosillo’s hot streak in AAA - has me hoping for a platoon of them both in RF to open 2020, with Adell and Marsh getting playing time in SLC. As soon as one is needed, bring either one up, based on need and performance. 

[totdprods]

I also like Brennon Lund as a 4th OF, and he will need to be added this winter to the 40 to be protected from the Rule 5, though it seems every year there are numerous 4th OFs eligible but few are taken. Jones will need to be added as well, and he could arguably fill a 4th OF role, at least defensively, as well as Lund.

Edited August 24, 2019 by totdprods