Jump to content
  • Welcome to AngelsWin.com

    AngelsWin.com - THE Internet Home for Angels fans! Unraveling Angels Baseball ... One Thread at a Time.

    Register today to join the most interactive online Angels community on the net!

    Once you're a member you'll see less advertisements. Become a Premium member and you won't see any ads! 

     

IGNORED

The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread


Chuck

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Jinzu said:

Without Adell, our farm is very underwhelming in the sense of having prospects that will be, instead of might be. And I know technically all prospects are might bes, but y’all should know what I mean.

Here’s a break down of 50 grade or above prospects per team according to MLB.com:

ARI (16) - 55 (4), 50 (12)

ATL (10) - 60 (1), 55 (4), 50 (5)

BAL (11) - 65 (1), 55 (3), 50 (7)

BOS (11) - 55 (1), 50 (10)

CHC (10) - 55 (2), 50 (8)

CWS (9) - 65 (1), 55 (4), 50 (4)

CIN (10) - 55 (3), 50 (7)

CLE (13) - 55 (4), 50 (9)

COL (6) - 60 (1), 55 (1), 50 (4)

DET (14) - 65 (1), 55 (3), 50 (10)

HOU (3) - 60 (2), 50 (1)

KC (8) - 60 (1), 55 (2), 50 (5)

LAA (5) - 65 (1), 50 (4)

LAD (14) - 60 (1), 55 (3), 50 (10)

MIA (12) - 55 (6), 50 (6)

MIL (9) - 55 (1), 50 (8)

MIN (13) - 60 (2), 55 (3), 50 (8)

NYM (12) - 55 (3), 50 (9)

NYY (12) - 55 (3), 50 (9)

OAK (8) - 55 (3), 50 (5)

PHI (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

PIT (7) - 55 (3), 50 (4)

SD (10) - 65 (1), 55 (7), 50 (2)

SF (10) - 55 (4), 50 (6)

SEA (8) - 55 (5), 50 (3)

STL (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

TB (11) - 70 (1), 60 (1), 55 (4), 50 (5)

TEX (16) - 55 (3), 50 (13)

TOR (13) - 60 (2), 55 (1), 50 (10)

WAS (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

And therein lies the issue.  MLB.com is pretty much the worst place you can look to get detailed incite of prospects or even remotely accurate information on any of the lesser known prospects.  

I'm going to flat out say it, because AngelsWin involves more people who are more focused on this system specifically, our Top 30 Prospect rankings are much better than anything you'll see from MLB.com. 

MLB.com says the Angels will end up with 5 players from their current prospect crop that end up being average or better major leaguers.  The pessimist in me says 6.  The optimist in me says 13.  The realist in me says 10.

And you can choose to believe me or not.  That really isn't my concern.  I'm simply saying that using the knowledge that I've accumulated on each one of these guys through this stage in their respective careers, I believe there are currently 10 prospects in the Angels system that will end up being average major leaguers or better.  For me, I identify an average major league position players as one that is a starter, and not just on the worst team in the league.  As a pitcher, an average pitcher would be one that makes it into a rotation and pitches better than a #5 starter, or one that pitches in relief and becomes something better than a middle reliever or mop up pitcher. 

Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, Jordyn Adams, Will Wilson, Matt Thaiss, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Oliver Ortega, Kevin Maitan, and Jack Kochanowicz all fit this description to me.  Adell will be a perennial all-star.  Marsh, Adams and Wilson will be studs that may make an all-star team once or twice.  Thaiss will be a solid starting 3B/1B.  Maitan will be a switch-hitting starting 3B/1B with plus power.  Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano and Jack Kochanowicz (super aggressive on him) will be mid-rotation starters and Oliver Ortega is going to be a dominant late inning reliever for a few years. 

The other guys that I think will miss out, like Jeremiah Jackson, Jose Suarez, Karen Paris, and Patrick Sandoval, all have the upside to exceed the FV50 mark though.  I'm not saying they will, but I am saying the talent is there. 

And then there are guys like Aaron Hernandez who to me looks like he could turn into a lethal 8th or 9th inning option as well. 

There's just a TON of potential in this system, which is a far cry from the days of Jerry Dipoto.  I agree with @Dochalo that the Angels are probably a mid-ranked farm system, though I think they're still being undersold.  They were a mid-ranked farm system back before they produced Canning, Barria, Suarez, Buttrey, Rengifo, Fletcher and Ohtani (technically).  Yet when we compare the Angels recent output of prospects (Sandoval and Thaiss included), they FAR exceed that of your average major league team.  The Angels were a top five ranked farm system a year or two ago, but were only ranked middle of the pack, and most publications are now only beginning to realize how wrong they were.

I think the same thing is happening here.  They're going to rank them right there in the middle, but there's so much more talent here than they're being given credit for.  Then suddenly when Jordyn Adams figures it out they'll pretend like he shot up out of nowhere even though he was a first round pick.  Or Chris Rodriguez is suddenly healthy and pitching like a Top 50 prospect and they'll act all surprised by that as well.  But the boys on AW, they knew.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Dochalo, I think you're misunderstanding my stance. That last post was merely pointing out how you can take one step the other way and provide reasonable reasons to be underwhelmed with the farm this year; meaning, that being somewhat concerned and disappointed is a reasonable reaction to the farm. I'm actually almost as optimistic as you are, but adjusting for my own optimistic bias by trying to look at it from an outside perspective. But I am far less concerned than you seem to think; and "concern" isn't either/or but a matter of degree...I get that the farm is in much better shape than it was a few years ago, but my concern comes from the possibility that the upward trajectory has slowed and even stagnated.

Most of the prospects are highly volatile, with a wide range of possible outcomes. For instance, I fully realize that Marsh is a much better prospect than Lund, but there's a pessimistic outlook where he has a career not that much better. While Marsh's ceiling is quite a bit higher than Lund's, their floors are quite a bit closer. Potentially isn't always actualized, and so far Marsh's talent is more in potential than actualized. In other words, three years after being drafted he still hasn't had that big breakthrough year in the minors, while overall holding his own. I like Marsh and have high hopes for him, but he exemplifies a lot of Angels prospects in terms of having more talent than has yet translated into actual numbers.

And again, based on what we've seen so far. That's what I'm getting at. We can talk about potential all we want, but in the end potential is just a possibility of better performance. At some point it has to translate.

And I agree that the farm is middle of the pack, but this could change rather quickly - in about a year, which is what I and @UndertheHalo are speculating. Because of high volatility, this is a farm system that could just as easily be #25 as #10 a year from now. 

As for Adell, I'm not basing my concern about his BBs and Ks on 50 AAA plate appearances, but over 900 minor league PA. Again, I am reasonably certain that Adell will at least be a borderline star (4-5 WAR), with a very good chance of being an all-star (5-6 WAR). He could become a superstar (6+ WAR), but I'll feel more confident once we see strike zone mastery translate to better BB/K rates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Second Base said:

And therein lies the issue.  MLB.com is pretty much the worst place you can look to get detailed incite of prospects or even remotely accurate information on any of the lesser known prospects.  

I'm going to flat out say it, because AngelsWin involves more people who are more focused on this system specifically, our Top 30 Prospect rankings are much better than anything you'll see from MLB.com. 

MLB.com says the Angels will end up with 5 players from their current prospect crop that end up being average or better major leaguers.  The pessimist in me says 6.  The optimist in me says 13.  The realist in me says 10.

And you can choose to believe me or not.  That really isn't my concern.  I'm simply saying that using the knowledge that I've accumulated on each one of these guys through this stage in their respective careers, I believe there are currently 10 prospects in the Angels system that will end up being average major leaguers or better.  For me, I identify an average major league position players as one that is a starter, and not just on the worst team in the league.  As a pitcher, an average pitcher would be one that makes it into a rotation and pitches better than a #5 starter, or one that pitches in relief and becomes something better than a middle reliever or mop up pitcher. 

Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, Jordyn Adams, Will Wilson, Matt Thaiss, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Oliver Ortega, Kevin Maitan, and Jack Kochanowicz all fit this description to me.  Adell will be a perennial all-star.  Marsh, Adams and Wilson will be studs that may make an all-star team once or twice.  Thaiss will be a solid starting 3B/1B.  Maitan will be a switch-hitting starting 3B/1B with plus power.  Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano and Jack Kochanowicz (super aggressive on him) will be mid-rotation starters and Oliver Ortega is going to be a dominant late inning reliever for a few years. 

The other guys that I think will miss out, like Jeremiah Jackson, Jose Suarez, Karen Paris, and Patrick Sandoval, all have the upside to exceed the FV50 mark though.  I'm not saying they will, but I am saying the talent is there. 

And then there are guys like Aaron Hernandez who to me looks like he could turn into a lethal 8th or 9th inning option as well. 

There's just a TON of potential in this system, which is a far cry from the days of Jerry Dipoto.  I agree with @Dochalo that the Angels are probably a mid-ranked farm system, though I think they're still being undersold.  They were a mid-ranked farm system back before they produced Canning, Barria, Suarez, Buttrey, Rengifo, Fletcher and Ohtani (technically).  Yet when we compare the Angels recent output of prospects (Sandoval and Thaiss included), they FAR exceed that of your average major league team.  The Angels were a top five ranked farm system a year or two ago, but were only ranked middle of the pack, and most publications are now only beginning to realize how wrong they were.

I think the same thing is happening here.  They're going to rank them right there in the middle, but there's so much more talent here than they're being given credit for.  Then suddenly when Jordyn Adams figures it out they'll pretend like he shot up out of nowhere even though he was a first round pick.  Or Chris Rodriguez is suddenly healthy and pitching like a Top 50 prospect and they'll act all surprised by that as well.  But the boys on AW, they knew.  

I feel like the FG rank is about as good as I've seen in terms of comprehensive reviews.  I disagree with some of their rankings but in both directions and overall I feel like it evens out.  There's probably an AW.com equivalent for every team that think their rankings are better than the pundits and they're probably right.  

However, even a site like fangraphs has to hedge their bets.  They're never going to give guys with superstar potential a high grade when they're in rookie ball unless they're the #1 draft pick or the #1 international prospect.  

We've got a decent gap in potential from A+ to AAA now that we've graduated a bunch of guy.  We've got our two best prospects and a couple of pitchers in that realm.  Most of the systems value is at A or lower with a ton of upside.  

People are gonna hate this statement, but it might take 2-3 more year before a few of these guys become top 100 types and the rest of that crew to graduate to AA and fill things out.  What we're seeing at the major league level right now is as much Dipoto and his crew as it is Eppler.  Billy just made the wise choice of not trading them.  What Eppler is building is still on it's way for the most part along with some strong trades for Rengifo, Buttrey and Sandoval and a couple draft picks already materializing in Canning and sort of Thaiss.  Otherwise, people should expect a normal development process.  If the major league team, which has now been put into a position to use those early returns to create a potentially competitive team, can parlay them into wins, then great.  Ahead of schedule regardless of the timeline people want.  

Again, either the strategy is gonna work or it's not.  I have no idea if it will but I like a lot of what they've done so there's hope.  Maybe the sign, draft and development process fails and we're SOL which happens.  We'll just have to see on that.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@Dochalo, I think you're misunderstanding my stance. That last post was merely pointing out how you can take one step the other way and provide reasonable reasons to be underwhelmed with the farm this year; meaning, that being somewhat concerned and disappointed is a reasonable reaction to the farm. I'm actually almost as optimistic as you are, but adjusting for my own optimistic bias by trying to look at it from an outside perspective. But I am far less concerned than you seem to think; and "concern" isn't either/or but a matter of degree...I get that the farm is in much better shape than it was a few years ago, but my concern comes from the possibility that the upward trajectory has slowed and even stagnated.

Most of the prospects are highly volatile, with a wide range of possible outcomes. For instance, I fully realize that Marsh is a much better prospect than Lund, but there's a pessimistic outlook where he has a career not that much better. While Marsh's ceiling is quite a bit higher than Lund's, their floors are quite a bit closer. Potentially isn't always actualized, and so far Marsh's talent is more in potential than actualized. In other words, three years after being drafted he still hasn't had that big breakthrough year in the minors, while overall holding his own. I like Marsh and have high hopes for him, but he exemplifies a lot of Angels prospects in terms of having more talent than has yet translated into actual numbers.

And again, based on what we've seen so far. That's what I'm getting at. We can talk about potential all we want, but in the end potential is just a possibility of better performance. At some point it has to translate.

And I agree that the farm is middle of the pack, but this could change rather quickly - in about a year, which is what I and @UndertheHalo are speculating. Because of high volatility, this is a farm system that could just as easily be #25 as #10 a year from now. 

As for Adell, I'm not basing my concern about his BBs and Ks on 50 AAA plate appearances, but over 900 minor league PA. Again, I am reasonably certain that Adell will at least be a borderline star (4-5 WAR), with a very good chance of being an all-star (5-6 WAR). He could become a superstar (6+ WAR), but I'll feel more confident once we see strike zone mastery translate to better BB/K rates.

I think you're misunderstanding me actually.  I agree that you can spin this years performance one way or the other pretty easily.  I can totally see why someone would look at what's happened this year and be totally bearish on the system.  But that would me they had unrealistic expectations to start.  From Eppler drafts we've got Thaiss in the majors, Marsh in AA, Canning in the majors, Adell at AAA and pretty much every other of the 160 players from those drafts in A or lower with a few exceptions.  That's where they should be considering that many of the players with upside were drafted out of HS.  It's actually pretty impressive that the top 4 prospects from Eppler's first two drafts are close to or in the majors.  It's also crazy to expect anything more.  

So to be disappointed with what's transpired on the farm this year seems premature.  We're probably two years from judging the 2016 draft which was a little over  3 years ago.  If you're thinking about it the right way, this year shouldn't have changed anyone's outlook on our farm system.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree that disappointment as some kind of finalized indictment is premature, but I'm not sure anyone is going that far - at least in this round of conversation. I can only speak for myself, and I certainly don't feel that way. But am I somewhat concerned or disappointed with a number of prospects? Yes, and I don't think that is unreasonable or premature. Is it premature to be disappointed with Chris Rodriguez's inability to stay healthy? With Marsh's lack of power? With Knowles' poor numbers? With Jones' terrible year? Etc, Etc. 

I'm trying to find a middle ground between the usual rosy glasses outlook on one hand and the failo view on the other. Let's allow for some degrees between one extreme and the other. If I'm disappointed that Marsh's power hasn't shown up yet (for the most part), it doesn't mean that I'm writing him off or don't think it won't show up, just that I was hoping it would more this year than it has. 

Is there really a "right way" to view the farm, as you say? I'm not so sure, and partially because such judgement is premature - to project either way. This year hasn't changed by overall outlook of the farm; my disappointment stems more from how my outlook hasn't changed: it hasn't cemented the upward trajectory as firmly as I would have liked. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree that disappointment as some kind of finalized indictment is premature, but I'm not sure anyone is going that far - at least in this round of conversation. I can only speak for myself, and I certainly don't feel that way. But am I somewhat concerned or disappointed with a number of prospects? Yes, and I don't think that is unreasonable or premature. Is it premature to be disappointed with Chris Rodriguez's inability to stay healthy? With Marsh's lack of power? With Knowles' poor numbers? With Jones' terrible year? Etc, Etc. 

I'm trying to find a middle ground between the usual rosy glasses outlook on one hand and the failo view on the other. Let's allow for some degrees between one extreme and the other. If I'm disappointed that Marsh's power hasn't shown up yet (for the most part), it doesn't mean that I'm writing him off or don't think it won't show up, just that I was hoping it would more this year than it has. 

Is there really a "right way" to view the farm, as you say? I'm not so sure, and partially because such judgement is premature - to project either way. This year hasn't changed by overall outlook of the farm; my disappointment stems more from how my outlook hasn't changed: it hasn't cemented the upward trajectory as firmly as I would have liked. 

I agree with everything you've said AJ and was initially responding to some of the statements made about the system by people other than you.  Maybe there's not a right way to view the system but I do think that the initial trajectory and progress attributed to Eppler and his staff was perhaps allocated improperly. 

I guess my ultimate point is that this years progress is probably pretty standard in terms of how Eppler has drafted and acquired talent.  Not great and not bad.  Jones, Barria, Fletcher, Ward, Walsh, Anderson, Middleton,  Hermosillo and the assets to obtain, Rengifo, Sandoval, Upton, Simmons, and ultimately Buttrey  were all here when Eppler arrived.  Actually, so were Yan and Ortega as well as a few other guys.  So maybe the system really wasn't the worst ever and we kinda mentally gave Eppler most of the credit for this initial huge improvement in the system when in fact it was more of a combo of what Eppler did and the fact that maybe we didn't really have the worst farm system ever.  Of course Billy and his staff did a great job initially of using or not using certain currency the right way and then had a couple strong draft classes right off the bat to boot.  

So it gave the perception and expectation that he was churning out all these players when in fact he was just making good decisions.  Now that the holdovers have done what they're gonna do, what Eppler is building or has built as opposed to what he inherited is starting to take shape and that's what this year has shown us more than anything.  That he's infused the lower half of the system with tons of pitching depth, and a bunch of high upside position players while creating a development process that seems to be moving many forward.  

I can't make people be happy about our system but only try to offer a little perspective that while the lack of a couple breakouts by any 2 or 3 guys may has not been a great optic, the system has actually made progress this year regardless and on par with what one should expect.  There's still more talent and potential than there was or at least that's what I see.  It seemed at first that Eppler was working magic in terms of a transformation but he's not.  Just appropriate progression within the normal confines of how things go.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Dochalo said:

that's what I'm talking about.  he's got something different.  

Not meaning to truly compare Adell to Trout, but he does have that same solid maturity, great athleticism, and developing power at a young age.  

Trout had ridiculous plate discipline in the minors, for an 18-19 year-old.   That, and his seemingly perfect swing, is what separates him from everyone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, ScottT said:

Springer was older, though. Only 8 minor league games as a 21 year old.  Adell won't be 21 until the second week of the 2020 MLB season.

Springer was a college draftee (UConn).    He even had regression a year ago at 28, OPS fell from .889 to .780 mainly due to a power drop off (12 fewer HRs).

But he rallied back in a huge way in 2019, with by far his best season to date so far although missing some 35 games so far, already having 25 HRs and 65 rbis in just 84 games and OPS climbing almost 200 pts from 2018. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the pitching portion of the farm, consider that the Astros run has been made with mainly starting pitchers acquiring from other MLB teams.

Verlander, Morton, Cole, Greinke, and Miley were all acquired as MLB veteran pitchers. 

Only Keuchel and maybe McCullers, of their upper half of the rotation since 2017, were home grown.

The difference is that they had plenty of prospects to use to acquire many of those previously mentioned.

This is why Arte needs to dip into his wallet to sign Cole and a #3/#4 guy for the 2020 season and beyond, while they build a complete farm system that will perpetually be strong enough, with just minor periods of drops in the rankings as the next few years go by.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I can't make people be happy about our system but only try to offer a little perspective that while the lack of a couple breakouts by any 2 or 3 guys may has not been a great optic, the system has actually made progress this year regardless and on par with what one should expect.  There's still more talent and potential than there was or at least that's what I see.  It seemed at first that Eppler was working magic in terms of a transformation but he's not.  Just appropriate progression within the normal confines of how things go.  

Yes, agreed. I think we both like what Eppler is doing overall, and part of that is going after higher risk prospects with greater upside. Maybe only one of Adams/Knowles/Deveaux reaches his potential and the other two flame-out, but any of those three reaching their potential is stardom, and I'd rather have one star than three fringe to solid regulars. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, agreed. I think we both like what Eppler is doing overall, and part of that is going after higher risk prospects with greater upside. Maybe only one of Adams/Knowles/Deveaux reaches his potential and the other two flame-out, but any of those three reaching their potential is stardom, and I'd rather have one star than three fringe to solid regulars. 

I think that's a solid ratio.  If you take ten high upside prospects of 1st, 2nd, 3rd and maybe 4th round pedigree (or guys of similar ilk on the intl side), about 3 will hit the majors.  One will be an every day guy or star, another will bill an everyday guy or part timer, and a third will be a reliever or bench guy who likely spend a fair amount of time going back and forth.  I think Billy has set up the system to where we're going to end up with a few additional relievers mixed into that bunch that contribute in one way shape or form.  A Buttrey or two.  A Noe here and there.  A Jake Jewell or Rodriguez type here and there as well.  

That, to me, seems to be the template.  High ceiling position players and then a bunch of reliever currency.  That's actually what the yankees did very well.  Or still do actually.  Is to make a timely trade off of some high leverage relievers and fill in the gaps with the farm.  Or you keep them if the team is performing well.  I think Eppler has focused on pitching in the later round because you can get that stud relief guy in the 14th round where you are almost never going to get a solid rotation arm or starting position player from that spot.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Will Wilson, a polished collegiate hitter is batting .275 in Orem, and Jeremiah Jackson, a raw 19 year old from the prep ranks last year is batting .268 and has set the team record for homeruns.

still not impressed by Wilson so far.  Last time I posted something negative about him though, he went on a tear.  I'm sure that matters.  

How about Verrier by the way?  All or nothing with an .878 ops and 68k in 154 ab.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...