The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[rafibomb]

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Before you go Jo Adell is 2-5 with 2 runs and 2 RBI's and just hit this double.

 

 

[Docwaukee]

Adams runs like the wind blows.  

[tdawg87]

Black guys.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, he's still likely going to need another 2-3 more full seasons in the minors, that should give us an ETA of sometime in 2022, maybe 2023. By then the Angels should know what they have in Adell and Marsh. It could be a good "problem" to have.

And that's the worst part. Even if we move Upton to 1B and all is well in the community works because Marsh and Adell flank Trout, in two or three years when Adams is ready, Adell and Marsh will still only be 23 or 24. 

Smart teams don't trade 23 or 24 year old stud outfielders, not unless they aren't aware they're studs yet, which the Angels will be well aware of.

The only possible way I see this working is that if Adams is ready in three years, Upton's contact will be off the books and we'll need a 1B and part time DH, by which time Trout will be 31/32. Still in his prime pretty much, but no longer the extremely fast kid he once was. They'll want to save his legs, so having him DH the couple times a week would help. That's too young to move Trout to 1B, but I suppose the Angels could pull an Erstad and move Marsh to 1B to make room for Adams. So in the days when Trout DH's, move Marsh back to the outfield with Adell and Adams, and slot Thaiss or Walsh at 1B.

[goldenGlove]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

Wow he has a really nice swing. Once he’s loaded up it kinda reminds me of a smoother version of Upton

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

And that's the worst part. Even if we move Upton to 1B and all is well in the community works because Marsh and Adell flank Trout, in two or three years when Adams is ready, Adell and Marsh will still only be 23 or 24. 

Smart teams don't trade 23 or 24 year old stud outfielders, not unless they aren't aware they're studs yet, which the Angels will be well aware of.

The only possible way I see this working is that if Adams is ready in three years, Upton's contact will be off the books and we'll need a 1B and part time DH, by which time Trout will be 31/32. Still in his prime pretty much, but no longer the extremely fast kid he once was. They'll want to save his legs, so having him DH the couple times a week would help. That's too young to move Trout to 1B, but I suppose the Angels could pull an Erstad and move Marsh to 1B to make room for Adams. So in the days when Trout DH's, move Marsh back to the outfield with Adell and Adams, and slot Thaiss or Walsh at 1B.

Well, part of what I was getting it is that when Adams is ready, we'll have a better sense of how good Adell, Marsh, and him will be, so it might be more straightforward to choose who to keep and who to trade than it seems now.

What I find interesting about Adams is that he's harder to gauge, both in terms of upside and what sort of player he'll become. It is more clear what type of players Adell and Marsh will be, less clear about Adams. He's got tons of athleticism, speed and potential power, but how will it all manifest? He could end up similar to Adell, or he could be more like a Tim Raines type. Or maybe he hits for more power and is in the Eric Davis mold (I'm talking less about upside and more about type of player).

Anyhow, my hope is that we get to face this "problem" come 2022 or so. But my gut says that one of these three will be traded well before then - probably Marsh, but maybe Adams. You'd think that in a year or two Eppler will dangle Deveaux or Knowles over these guys, but other GMs will be looking at these three.

[vladdy#27]

The Dodgers have had Bellinger (19 DRS in RF this year) play quite a bit of first base in his first two seasons in the Majors. If Marsh has to play 2/3 of his games at 1B and 1/3 of his games in the outfield for a year or two it's not the end of the world.

Upton has 3 years left on his contract. Marsh likely spends a good portion of next year, if not all of it, in Triple-A. In 2021/2022 he spends the majority of the time at 1B and giving the guys in the OF a day off. Injuries are also inevitable so there will be time in the outfield when guys go on the IL. In 2023 he can move permanently to the OF.

If/when Adams breaks out you can explore just keeping Marsh at 1B or moving Adams in a trade.

[eaterfan]

1 minute ago, vladdy#27 said:

The Dodgers have had Bellinger (19 DRS in RF this year) play quite a bit of first base in his first two seasons in the Majors. If Marsh has to play 2/3 of his games at 1B and 1/3 of his games in the outfield for a year or two it's not the end of the world.

Upton has 3 years left on his contract. Marsh likely spends a good portion of the year, if not all of it, in Triple-A next year. In 2021/2022 he spends the majority of the time at 1B and giving the guys in the OF a day off. Injuries are also inevitable so there will be time in the outfield when guys go on the IL. In 2023 he can move permanently to the OF.

Belinger is good enough offensively to play 1B. While Marsh Matt develop into a premium hitter, until he does a good portion of his value will be derived from defense. It's not the same thing as putting Belinger there. Additionally, the Dodgers do that to make room for other players they have to get in the lineup because they are so good. Moving Marsh to 1B to keep Upton in LF instead of putting Upton at 1B and letting Marsh play the outfield keeps the same lineup it's just a different defensive alignment.

[vladdy#27]

10 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Belinger is good enough offensively to play 1B. While Marsh Matt develop into a premium hitter, until he does a good portion of his value will be derived from defense. It's not the same thing as putting Belinger there. Additionally, the Dodgers do that to make room for other players they have to get in the lineup because they are so good. Moving Marsh to 1B to keep Upton in LF instead of putting Upton at 1B and letting Marsh play the outfield keeps the same lineup it's just a different defensive alignment.

Marsh likely won't have the power Bellinger had, but he could still be a .270-.280 Avg .340-.350 OBP with 10-20 HR in his first two years. Which is not far off from Bellinger's second year or Freeman's first two years in the Majors. Upton playing a passable 1B would be best it's just not likely. Marsh being above average defensively at 1B while starting 1-3 games in the OF a week seems a lot more likely. 

[Second Base]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, part of what I was getting it is that when Adams is ready, we'll have a better sense of how good Adell, Marsh, and him will be, so it might be more straightforward to choose who to keep and who to trade than it seems now.

What I find interesting about Adams is that he's harder to gauge, both in terms of upside and what sort of player he'll become. It is more clear what type of players Adell and Marsh will be, less clear about Adams. He's got tons of athleticism, speed and potential power, but how will it all manifest? He could end up similar to Adell, or he could be more like a Tim Raines type. Or maybe he hits for more power and is in the Eric Davis mold (I'm talking less about upside and more about type of player).

Anyhow, my hope is that we get to face this "problem" come 2022 or so. But my gut says that one of these three will be traded well before then - probably Marsh, but maybe Adams. You'd think that in a year or two Eppler will dangle Deveaux or Knowles over these guys, but other GMs will be looking at these three.

An interesting comparison....

Speed: Adams, Marsh, Adell

Athleticism: Adams, Adell, Marsh

Routes: Marsh, Adell, Adams

Arm: Marsh, Adell, Adams

Hit: Adell, Marsh, Adams

Power: Adell, Adams, Marsh

Pitch Recognition: Adell, Adams, Marsh

Plate Discipline: Marsh, Adams, Adell.

As you said, we aren't sure exactly who Adams is yet, so we can only go on what scouts believed, which is that eventually Adams Will be the guy that his 20 HR's. But that opinion was formed when Adams was probably 20 lbs lighter and in high school. The kid has gotten a lot bigger and is handling himself extremely well when you consider he's 19, devoting himself solely to baseball for the first time in his life, and is playing full season ball against competition a few years older and a heck of a lot more experienced than he is. By most expectations two years ago, Jordyn Adams was likely going to be a starting wide receiver for North Carolina this year as a freshman.

So we have a very fast, strong, athletic kid from the south that was a very good football player opt to play baseball instead, and is now turning into quite the ball player.

You know who that kind of reminds me. Brandon Marsh.

[tdawg87]

Brown Marsh

[Angel Oracle]

Much has also been made of Adams’ solid maturity for a teen.

That will be important as well as he develops in the minors.

[Glen]

Future Claude signs:

ADELLPHIA

ADAMS FAMILY

MARSH COUNTRY

YACHT FUEL

[tdawg87]

48 minutes ago, Glen said:

Future Claude signs:

ADELLPHIA

ADAMS FAMILY

MARSH COUNTRY

YACHT FUEL

Upton is a N

[Angel Oracle]

In the Southern League, Marsh is 2nd in OBP, 4th in BA, and 9th in OPS.   All at age 21

Imagine when the power finally develops later on.   Potential for 5 tools later on?

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, Second Base said:

Hit: Adell, Marsh, Adams

 

Good stuff. this is the only one that I'll quibble with. I think Marsh could have a better hit tool than Adell, if we're talking contact and batting average. They could hit similarly in the majors, but I'd give Marsh the edge.

[Angelsfan1984]

If scouts are so high on Marsh in comparison to Adell, why is he not higher on the top 100?

[Angel Oracle]

7 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

If scouts are so high on Marsh in comparison to Adell, why is he not higher on the top 100?

Chicks aren't the only ones digging the long ball?

[rafibomb]

11 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

If scouts are so high on Marsh in comparison to Adell, why is he not higher on the top 100?

He slashed .256/.348/.734 in 93 games after being promoted to High-A in 2018. The plate discipline was still there but now he is slowly piecing everything together this season. When the power comes he will shoot up the top 100.

[Angelsfan1984]

27 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

He slashed .256/.348/.734 in 93 games after being promoted to High-A in 2018. The plate discipline was still there but now he is slowly piecing everything together this season. When the power comes he will shoot up the top 100.

Gotcha, well if he does continue to develop an outfield of Trout, Adell and Marsh would be pretty freakin slick. Adams will likely be the odd man out there, but anything can happen in the matter of a year.

[Vlad27Trout27]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Good stuff. this is the only one that I'll quibble with. I think Marsh could have a better hit tool than Adell, if we're talking contact and batting average. They could hit similarly in the majors, but I'd give Marsh the edge.

I agreed with you. I do think that Marsh has the best raw hit tool out of the entire minor league. he has the potential to have a 60 grade hit tool, with solid discipline and coverage. 

i also think him he has more power than Adams. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Just like how people have overlooked Marsh this year here, it's the same outside. He's one of the youngest in AA and is quietly putting up top 10 and even top 5 number's in the league. I don't know if people are disappointed in his power (even tho some of the top prospect at his age have an equal home run output) or his slow start, But he has been a beast without relying on the power. Even law is high on him and has called him an all-star! if he was on the yanks or any top 10 prospect team, he'd easily be a top 50 prospect. If you go an compare is number's to some of the top 100 prospects, his number are pretty dam good. 

Pache (11) has played more games than marsh, is younger, 

kirilloff (16)  and Sanchez (40) similar age, but Marsh has had the better year. 

If i was to give him his potential scale this is what it would be:

Hit: 60 Power: 55  Run:60 Arm :60 Field: 60 

With these scales this is what i envision in him.

Avg: 280-300

Homers: 15-22

OBS: 350-370

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Comparing this to Adell's scale. personally for me Adell is unknown, he could easily be a start (Acuna, Harper or Judge) or he could easy bust. But his potential is changing and he still growing. i'll list mu on scale.

number's in () are if Adell still grow more and i would say if he reaches those number's we have a superstar,

Hit: 55 (65) Power: 60  (70) Run: 65  Arm :60 Field: 60  

so his season average, these will include his potential stats as well

Avg: 270-300

Homers:  25-40

OBP: 345-380

Adell has such a big ceiling you just can't really determine his number and potential correctly. 

[Angelsjunky]

Good stuff, @Vlad27Trout27. I concur with your analysis, although at this point I'm not too worried about Adell busting. I mean, prospects of his caliber have busted in the past, but I see it more a matter of degrees of disappointment.

Right now Adell could be Frank Robinson. Or he could be Domonic Brown. Chances are it will be somewhere in-between, but I'm guessing closer to Robinson than Brown. 

Darryl Strawberry is a comp I've been thinking about lately. Strawberry doesn't quite work, though, because he was a Hall of Fame talent whose lifestyle kept him from greatness. I don't know if Adell is that talented, but he does seem to have a better head on his shoulders. But even if he's, say, 90% of the talent of Strawberry, his better mentality could bridge that 10% gap and yield a Strawberry-like career.

[totdprods]

Marsh since May 2:
.311/.388/.465/.854 - a 162-game pace of 46 doubles, 5 triples, 14 HR, 72 BB, 144 K, 32 SB