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No way man. I am not even remotely comfortable relying on the young guys taking a big enough step forward to make this a competitive rotation next year. 

Obviously we can't assume Cole will sign here, but he absolutely has to be priority 1. IF they can sign Cole, they still need to replace Skaggs. Hamels wouldn't be bad, but someone is going to give him 2 years. No thank you to Wood or Wacha. No more reclamation projects. Arte needs to sign checks with his balls this off-season. 

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10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

No way man. I am not even remotely comfortable relying on the young guys taking a big enough step forward to make this a competitive rotation next year. 

Obviously we can't assume Cole will sign here, but he absolutely has to be priority 1. IF they can sign Cole, they still need to replace Skaggs. Hamels wouldn't be bad, but someone is going to give him 2 years. No thank you to Wood or Wacha. No more reclamation projects. Arte needs to sign checks with his balls this off-season. 

I'm not expecting the young rotation guys to step forward enough in 2020, but two or three of them - Yan and Soriano will be right behind them soon - could/should be making big progress come 2021. Stemming from that is my belief they shouldn't go too crazy on too many mid-tier/multi-year FA SPs. We've put too much work into building a flexible payroll and a future depending on youth to risk having $30m+ tied up to a likely middling Wheeler and Odorizzi come 2022. 

Cole obviously is priority 1A, and I particularly like the idea of Hamels on a one or two year deal. Failing either of those, I"m totally fine signing one mid-tier arm - we need that in those circumstances - but Eppler shouldn't overreact to try and force the 2020 team into competition since the timeline he's been operating on doesn't have 2020 as our big year - it's our entry year into the new window, not the peak.

A trade could also net a mid-tier arm without clogging payroll - either a one-year rental like Ray, Stroman, DeSclafani, Minor - or an asset with longer control, such as Boyd. 

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32 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I'm not expecting the young rotation guys to step forward enough in 2020, but two or three of them - Yan and Soriano will be right behind them soon - could/should be making big progress come 2021. Stemming from that is my belief they shouldn't go too crazy on too many mid-tier/multi-year FA SPs. We've put too much work into building a flexible payroll and a future depending on youth to risk having $30m+ tied up to a likely middling Wheeler and Odorizzi come 2022. 

Cole obviously is priority 1A, and I particularly like the idea of Hamels on a one or two year deal. Failing either of those, I"m totally fine signing one mid-tier arm - we need that in those circumstances - but Eppler shouldn't overreact to try and force the 2020 team into competition since the timeline he's been operating on doesn't have 2020 as our big year - it's our entry year into the new window, not the peak.

A trade could also net a mid-tier arm without clogging payroll - either a one-year rental like Ray, Stroman, DeSclafani, Minor - or an asset with longer control, such as Boyd. 

I get where you are going with this and I understand the sentiment. I'm sure Arte and Eppler have considered the very same thing. Obviously the payroll doesn't work in a vacuum, and it can't be considered solely on a year-to-year basis.

The caveat to that, is the ceiling of Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval is pretty much that of a number 4 starter. Mayyyybe a number 3 if you want to be generous. There's a very good chance 2 of those 3 flame out and either become relievers or journeymen. Yan and especially Soriano could be knocking on the MLB door come 2022. But that's not a guarantee and that's still 2 full years away. And in Soriano's case, if he reaches his full potential the Angels will absolutely make room for him.

I realize 2020 isn't "the peak", but I still fully expect them to compete. And I don't mean they finish 3-4 games out of the 2nd WC. I mean they finish 3-4 games out of 1st and win one of the wild cards. To get there, they need serious pitching help. That means Cole AND a mid-level starter. At least. If Cole can't be signed they need Wheeler and Odorizzi. 

The younger guys can supplement the rotation as needed. After all, the oldest of the 3 is Barria and he's 22. 

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Posted (edited)

I mean just looking at the present situation as a whole, there are definitely some Eppler targets. First and foremost, he was heavily in on Corbin, which says to me that he's very cognizant of the Angels needs at the top of the rotation on a long term basis. I wish he'd go about solving those from the draft, but whatever.

In Harvey we saw an Eppler project where he chases high velocity, high spin rates and thinks he can develop them. That obviously was a massive failure. And in Cahill, he saw a steady back of the rotation option which if it didn't work out, could be moved to the pen where he's been brilliant before. Also a fail.

Coming into the year, the rotation and depth was expected to be Harvey, Cahill, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Stratton, Pena, Suarez, Canning and Sandoval. That's 10 deep. He's even mentioned a couple times before a rotation needs to be 10 deep.

Now coming into next year, it's looking like Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Suarez, Sandoval and Pena. Given the attrition rate of this year's starters, half of which aren't starters or pitching for this team anymore, and the fact that there are only seven available, you can expect a series of moves. Furthermore, he's made it clear that entering a season with Barria, Pena, Suarez or Sandoval penciled in as the 5th starter without strong justification just isn't something he's going to do.

On top of that, even when Ohtani was healthy, Eppler was still hesitant to make him part of a five man rotation. He wanted to go to a six man rotation and a series of long relievers to try and release pressure on the starters.

Billy Eppler is going to bring in three starting pitchers, either via trade or free agency, I can tell you that right now.

The Angels likely have around 40 million to spend before they reach their payroll limit. Pretty much everyone and their mother expects Gerrit Cole to be here and I'm no different. 

And as Doc said, Wheeler is very much an Eppler type of starter. I expect him and Cole to cost 40 million. Which means that third starting pitcher that Eppler brings in, is going to need to come via trade, and is going to need to be relatively inexpensive. Teams aren't falling over themselves to trade those guys. I think he'll work something out for Matthew Boyd, and it'll cost the prospect all inside sources have indicated he won't trade, which is Brandon Marsh. 

So next year's six man rotation, I believe will be Cole, Boyd, Ohtani, Wheeler, Heaney and Canning, with Pena pitching out of the bullpen, and Barria, Suarez and Sandoval all in AAA.

Edited by Second Base

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33 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I mean just looking at the present situation as a whole, there are definitely some Eppler targets. First and foremost, he was heavily in on Corbin, which says to me that he's very cognizant of the Angels needs at the top of the rotation on a long term basis. I wish he'd go about solving those from the draft, but whatever.

In Harvey we saw an Eppler project where he chases high velocity, high spin rates and thinks he can develop them. That obviously was a massive failure. And in Cahill, he saw a steady back of the rotation option which if it didn't work out, could be moved to the pen where he's been brilliant before. Also a fail.

Coming into the year, the rotation and depth was expected to be Harvey, Cahill, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Stratton, Pena, Suarez, Canning and Sandoval. That's 10 deep. He's even mentioned a couple times before a rotation needs to be 10 deep.

Now coming into next year, it's looking like Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Suarez, Sandoval and Pena. Given the attrition rate of this year's starters, half of which aren't starters or pitching for this team anymore, and the fact that there are only seven available, you can expect a series of moves. Furthermore, he's made it clear that entering a season with Barria, Pena, Suarez or Sandoval penciled in as the 5th starter without strong justification just isn't something he's going to do.

On top of that, even when Ohtani was healthy, Eppler was still hesitant to make him part of a five man rotation. He wanted to go to a six man rotation and a series of long relievers to try and release pressure on the starters.

Billy Eppler is going to bring in three starting pitchers, either via trade or free agency, I can tell you that right now.

The Angels likely have around 40 million to spend before they reach their payroll limit. Pretty much everyone and their mother expects Gerrit Cole to be here and I'm no different. 

And as Doc said, Wheeler is very much an Eppler type of starter. I expect him and Cole to cost 40 million. Which means that third starting pitcher that Eppler brings in, is going to need to come via trade, and is going to need to be relatively inexpensive. Teams aren't falling over themselves to trade those guys. I think he'll work something out for Matthew Boyd, and it'll cost the prospect all inside sources have indicated he won't trade, which is Brandon Marsh. 

So next year's six man rotation, I believe will be Cole, Boyd, Ohtani, Wheeler, Heaney and Canning, with Pena pitching out of the bullpen, and Barria, Suarez and Sandoval all in AAA.

I fully expect Eppler to get 3 pitchers as well, and I think it plays into getting Cole.

I wouldn't be surprised if Eppler gets Wheeler very early on in the off-season, then maybe trades for someone like Boyd. That way Boras can't play his BS game with them. 

Make no mistake, Cole is absolutely Target 1A Platinum Premium Nachos Supreme. But everyone knows the Angels need him, especially Boras. 

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Cole Hamels will be 36 to start next year.  Maybe on a 1yr deal as the 3rd guy they add, but not as the second guy.  

Eppler isn't going to pay the prospect scratch to get Boyd.  The Tigers likely had ample opportunity to move him at the deadline with some good offers in an elevated market and chose to keep him for now.  That tells me where their expectations are at.  He's off a cliff since June 2nd.  That's not a few starts, but 15 starts spanning more good ones than he had made.  He's a mid rotation guy at best.  If they want to let a team pay mid rotation starter prices for him then maybe consider it.  To me, this is bullet dodged.  He's appropriately regressed to his career numbers after 10 good starts at the beginning of the year.  No way in hell am I giving up Brandon Marsh and several others for that when I can get Wheeler or Odorizzi at 3/30 or slightly more.  

They should be able to handle Cole and a 3yr deal for another starter.  Losing Skaggs really really sucks.  He was probably going to make 6-7 mil next year.  Adding another 3-4 mil to replace him isn't the end of the world.  Replacing Harvey, Cahill, Bour, Lucroy, Allen, Skaggs, Calhoun with two and maybe even 3 pitchers shouldn't be huge problem.  

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Cole Hamels will be 36 to start next year.  Maybe on a 1yr deal as the 3rd guy they add, but not as the second guy.  

Eppler isn't going to pay the prospect scratch to get Boyd.  The Tigers likely had ample opportunity to move him at the deadline with some good offers in an elevated market and chose to keep him for now.  That tells me where their expectations are at.  He's off a cliff since June 2nd.  That's not a few starts, but 15 starts spanning more good ones than he had made.  He's a mid rotation guy at best.  If they want to let a team pay mid rotation starter prices for him then maybe consider it.  To me, this is bullet dodged.  He's appropriately regressed to his career numbers after 10 good starts at the beginning of the year.  No way in hell am I giving up Brandon Marsh and several others for that when I can get Wheeler or Odorizzi at 3/30 or slightly more.  

They should be able to handle Cole and a 3yr deal for another starter.  Losing Skaggs really really sucks.  He was probably going to make 6-7 mil next year.  Adding another 3-4 mil to replace him isn't the end of the world.  Replacing Harvey, Cahill, Bour, Lucroy, Allen, Skaggs, Calhoun with two and maybe even 3 pitchers shouldn't be huge problem.  

 

This is pretty much exactly where I'm at on all counts. Well done for being as smart as me (or maybe as dumb).

I'm of the view that because Eppler actually has some breathing room with money, he should only trade prospects if he has to, or if someone makes him an offer he can't refuse. But it would seem that he can sign Cole and one of Wheeler/Odorizzi and still remain within budget, especially if Calhoun isn't optioned.

The focus is still the 2020s, not 2020 or bust. Brandon Marsh is a major factor in that decade - even if he is ultimately traded. But I really look forward to seeing the "Angels outfield factory" churn out good, young outfielders over the next five years, and see which of them become the true jewels: Adell, Marsh, Adams, Knowles, Deveaux, Ramirez, and eventually more to come.

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9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Cole Hamels will be 36 to start next year.  Maybe on a 1yr deal as the 3rd guy they add, but not as the second guy.  

Eppler isn't going to pay the prospect scratch to get Boyd.  The Tigers likely had ample opportunity to move him at the deadline with some good offers in an elevated market and chose to keep him for now.  That tells me where their expectations are at.  He's off a cliff since June 2nd.  That's not a few starts, but 15 starts spanning more good ones than he had made.  He's a mid rotation guy at best.  If they want to let a team pay mid rotation starter prices for him then maybe consider it.  To me, this is bullet dodged.  He's appropriately regressed to his career numbers after 10 good starts at the beginning of the year.  No way in hell am I giving up Brandon Marsh and several others for that when I can get Wheeler or Odorizzi at 3/30 or slightly more.  

They should be able to handle Cole and a 3yr deal for another starter.  Losing Skaggs really really sucks.  He was probably going to make 6-7 mil next year.  Adding another 3-4 mil to replace him isn't the end of the world.  Replacing Harvey, Cahill, Bour, Lucroy, Allen, Skaggs, Calhoun with two and maybe even 3 pitchers shouldn't be huge problem.  

 

 

 

I'd take Boyd if we don't give up Marsh, but something tells me Marsh would have to be included. I just see Boyd as the perfect replacement for Skaggs.

But if Arte is willing to spend, allocating $40 million to the rotation is probably the best option.

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I'm with Doc.   Despite the Ks from June 1 on (120 in 86.1 innings), Boyd has been VERY mediocre otherwise, especially the near 6.00 ERA and allowing 25 HRs in only those 86.1 innings.  

Do NOT include Marsh in a trade for him. 

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4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Cole Hamels will be 36 to start next year.  Maybe on a 1yr deal as the 3rd guy they add, but not as the second guy.  

Eppler isn't going to pay the prospect scratch to get Boyd.  The Tigers likely had ample opportunity to move him at the deadline with some good offers in an elevated market and chose to keep him for now.  That tells me where their expectations are at.  He's off a cliff since June 2nd.  That's not a few starts, but 15 starts spanning more good ones than he had made.  He's a mid rotation guy at best.  If they want to let a team pay mid rotation starter prices for him then maybe consider it.  To me, this is bullet dodged.  He's appropriately regressed to his career numbers after 10 good starts at the beginning of the year.  No way in hell am I giving up Brandon Marsh and several others for that when I can get Wheeler or Odorizzi at 3/30 or slightly more.  

They should be able to handle Cole and a 3yr deal for another starter.  Losing Skaggs really really sucks.  He was probably going to make 6-7 mil next year.  Adding another 3-4 mil to replace him isn't the end of the world.  Replacing Harvey, Cahill, Bour, Lucroy, Allen, Skaggs, Calhoun with two and maybe even 3 pitchers shouldn't be huge problem.  

 

 

 

Ok.....well a Matthew Boyd type of replacement then.

And this is just my guess.  Personally, I'd much rather keep Marsh and have him and Adell flank Trout in CF and move Upton to 1B/DH.  But that just isn't happening.  And moving our best defensive outfielder over to 1B sounds like a bad idea.  So the outcome is one of three.

a. The Angels move Upton out of LF, either via a positional change or trade, and Marsh plays RF, with Adell in LF.

b. The Angels keep Brandon Marsh in AAA for a couple years, then have him fill in as the 4th OF once he's out of options, and then have him replace Upton in four years. 

c. The Angels trade Marsh.  

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2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

I'm almost dreading Adams' inevitable breakout campaign next year.  If you think it's bad trying to concoct scenarios where Brandon Marsh stays, imagine having to dream one up where Brandon Marsh, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jordyn Adams are all on the field together. 

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7 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm almost dreading Adams' inevitable breakout campaign next year.  If you think it's bad trying to concoct scenarios where Brandon Marsh stays, imagine having to dream one up where Brandon Marsh, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jordyn Adams are all on the field together. 

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I remember there being quite a few people in the scouting community that saw Jordyn Adams as a possible 65 FV guy. Now, he's closing out the year as a 19 years old in High-A. I could honestly see both him and Marsh break out in the top 50 prospects next season.

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15 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm almost dreading Adams' inevitable breakout campaign next year.  If you think it's bad trying to concoct scenarios where Brandon Marsh stays, imagine having to dream one up where Brandon Marsh, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jordyn Adams are all on the field together. 

Well, he's still likely going to need another 2-3 more full seasons in the minors, that should give us an ETA of sometime in 2022, maybe 2023. By then the Angels should know what they have in Adell and Marsh. It could be a good "problem" to have.

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23 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm almost dreading Adams' inevitable breakout campaign next year.  If you think it's bad trying to concoct scenarios where Brandon Marsh stays, imagine having to dream one up where Brandon Marsh, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jordyn Adams are all on the field together. 

Trout to 1st.  He and Upton can platoon.  

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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, he's still likely going to need another 2-3 more full seasons in the minors, that should give us an ETA of sometime in 2022, maybe 2023. By then the Angels should know what they have in Adell and Marsh. It could be a good "problem" to have.

And that's the worst part. Even if we move Upton to 1B and all is well in the community works because Marsh and Adell flank Trout, in two or three years when Adams is ready, Adell and Marsh will still only be 23 or 24. 

Smart teams don't trade 23 or 24 year old stud outfielders, not unless they aren't aware they're studs yet, which the Angels will be well aware of.

The only possible way I see this working is that if Adams is ready in three years, Upton's contact will be off the books and we'll need a 1B and part time DH, by which time Trout will be 31/32. Still in his prime pretty much, but no longer the extremely fast kid he once was. They'll want to save his legs, so having him DH the couple times a week would help. That's too young to move Trout to 1B, but I suppose the Angels could pull an Erstad and move Marsh to 1B to make room for Adams. So in the days when Trout DH's, move Marsh back to the outfield with Adell and Adams, and slot Thaiss or Walsh at 1B.

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1 hour ago, Second Base said:

And that's the worst part. Even if we move Upton to 1B and all is well in the community works because Marsh and Adell flank Trout, in two or three years when Adams is ready, Adell and Marsh will still only be 23 or 24. 

Smart teams don't trade 23 or 24 year old stud outfielders, not unless they aren't aware they're studs yet, which the Angels will be well aware of.

The only possible way I see this working is that if Adams is ready in three years, Upton's contact will be off the books and we'll need a 1B and part time DH, by which time Trout will be 31/32. Still in his prime pretty much, but no longer the extremely fast kid he once was. They'll want to save his legs, so having him DH the couple times a week would help. That's too young to move Trout to 1B, but I suppose the Angels could pull an Erstad and move Marsh to 1B to make room for Adams. So in the days when Trout DH's, move Marsh back to the outfield with Adell and Adams, and slot Thaiss or Walsh at 1B.

Well, part of what I was getting it is that when Adams is ready, we'll have a better sense of how good Adell, Marsh, and him will be, so it might be more straightforward to choose who to keep and who to trade than it seems now.

What I find interesting about Adams is that he's harder to gauge, both in terms of upside and what sort of player he'll become. It is more clear what type of players Adell and Marsh will be, less clear about Adams. He's got tons of athleticism, speed and potential power, but how will it all manifest? He could end up similar to Adell, or he could be more like a Tim Raines type. Or maybe he hits for more power and is in the Eric Davis mold (I'm talking less about upside and more about type of player).

Anyhow, my hope is that we get to face this "problem" come 2022 or so. But my gut says that one of these three will be traded well before then - probably Marsh, but maybe Adams. You'd think that in a year or two Eppler will dangle Deveaux or Knowles over these guys, but other GMs will be looking at these three.

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