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Maitan went 3-5, Rondon 2-5. Jerryell Rivera's line looked pretty solid. I'd love to see him make good on that potential. Obviously Jackson has reached a level of play where it isn't really fair to him or the opposition for him to keep playing in the pioneer league. Michael Hermosillo went yard again, which he's been doing a lot of lately. And Trent Deveaux hit 2 HR's tonight. 

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@mobrosko: Jeremiah Jackson is now three home runs shy of tying the Pioneer League record. Greg Morrison holds the record by hitting 23 home runs for the Medicine Hat Blue Jays in 1997

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2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Meanwhile Jo Adell 0-4, 3 Ks. Typical AAA night for him. He's really overmatched.

They promoted him from AA mid slump, and now he’s adjusting to a new team, league, talent level, experience level of the opposition, etc. most of the AAA players have some big league experience whereas AA is more of the polished top prospects. He will figure it out, give it some time. He had a double and walk Tuesday evening. 

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4 hours ago, TroutField said:

They promoted him from AA mid slump, and now he’s adjusting to a new team, league, talent level, experience level of the opposition, etc. most of the AAA players have some big league experience whereas AA is more of the polished top prospects. He will figure it out, give it some time. He had a double and walk Tuesday evening. 

I know - I'm not worried at all. Hopefully he adjusts in the next couple weeks, but even if he doesn't I have no doubt that he'll figure it out early next year.

2 hours ago, Scott34 said:

Don't sleep on little Leo Rivas. 

I haven't forgotten him. I think he still projects as a solid major league utility player. 

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You know, I wasn’t really buying into Jeremiah Jackson yet...too many HR in a very HR-friendly environment, and not enough other positives in terms of contact, walk rate, discipline, pretty funky swing mechanics....

...but six multi-homer games and reaching 20 in 233 PA is crazy. Crazy!

Hope the kid gets a chance to compete at Burlington soon, preferably this year, to see if this momentum can sustain. I’m still going to temper my excitement until I see him put up a good line with Burlington, but this is absolutely encouraging.

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7 hours ago, TroutField said:

They promoted him from AA mid slump, and now he’s adjusting to a new team, league, talent level, experience level of the opposition, etc. most of the AAA players have some big league experience whereas AA is more of the polished top prospects. He will figure it out, give it some time. He had a double and walk Tuesday evening. 

he had actually just come out of a slump in mobile before they promoted him.   He had be 5/15 with 2hr, 2 dbl, 4bb and 2k in his final 5 AA games.  

I, too, agree that he'll adjust.  Something he's done very well.  When he got promoted to AA last year, he had a similar stretch over 8 games or so and then have a few good games to make up for it as he finished strong.  

the current tough run he's on has only been 7 games.   The thing that Adell needs to try and figure out is how to walk his way through a slump and no swing his way through it.  He's doing the latter right now.  

this could actually be construed as a good thing.  However they're pitching him right now in AAA is obviously a soft spot for him that he needs to adjust for. So it's good that it got exposed at AAA because it was certainly going to get exposed in the majors at some point.  Now he can work on it before it truly matters and the halos have a reason to keep him down and get an extra year of control.  

I just went back through the game logs and it appears he's really struggling vs. LHed pitching.  

Overall during this tough stretch, he's 3/32 with 16k and 2bb.   he's 1/14 with 8k vs. lefties with 5 ground outs.  

he's actually had some reverse splits vs. lefties his entire minor league career so far.  Not tremendously so in his first couple years but more pronounced this year for sure.  Probably accentuated by this recent tough stretch.  He's got an .881 ops vs. RHers this year vs. .757 vs. lefties.  



 

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

You know, I wasn’t really buying into Jeremiah Jackson yet...too many HR in a very HR-friendly environment, and not enough other positives in terms of contact, walk rate, discipline, pretty funky swing mechanics....

...but six multi-homer games and reaching 20 in 233 PA is crazy. Crazy!

Hope the kid gets a chance to compete at Burlington soon, preferably this year, to see if this momentum can sustain. I’m still going to temper my excitement until I see him put up a good line with Burlington, but this is absolutely encouraging.

yeah.  I agree with all of your concerns as well as the fact that the power is nuts.  His walk rate is actually pretty good.  It's the contact rate that's a little scary.  That swing is all or nothing.  When I've watched him it's been the lack of recognition of the breaking ball that make him look bad.  Hopefully that develops.  At the plate he kinda reminds me of Glenallen Hill who actually had a decent career as a hitter but lost a lot of value as a defender.  If he can be that at the dish and play solid defense at an IF position, he'll be a really good player.  

I looked up Greg Morrison and he was 21 when he set the record for hrs in rookie ball.  He was a 71st round pick from Canada and then released by the Dogs.  He then signed with the Jays whom he broke the record for.  As an FYI, the previous rookie ball record for hrs was 20 set by Steve Garvey and Cecil Fielder.  

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27 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

yeah.  I agree with all of your concerns as well as the fact that the power is nuts.  His walk rate is actually pretty good.  It's the contact rate that's a little scary.  That swing is all or nothing.  When I've watched him it's been the lack of recognition of the breaking ball that make him look bad. 

I haven't been able to watch many games or footage of him, so I just couldn't give him much credit yet for the walk rate, as I wasn't sure if he was actually drawing walks and working counts, or was being unintentionally intentionally walked by Pioneer League pitchers aware of his crazy HR rate. The strikeouts led me to think it was more the latter...can't wait to see how he progresses either way. The three true-outcome thing could still lead to a productive player in this current baseball climate. 

Thinking on Jackson this morning also made me think more broadly about the prospects Eppler drafts as a whole...Eppler came from NYY, where the Yankees system was always known for being pretty well-stocked, but also, often over-hyped, and the Yankees seemingly took advantage of this in dozens of trades over the years. Numerous Yankees prospects would be dealt for impact, only to flame out or fail to really be anything special at the big league level. And, it also seems like a tremendous number of MLB players, even relatively no-name guys, at some point crossed through the Yankees system. It blows my mind how often I research a young player or a new player breaking into the league and notice they were originally NYY farmhands. 

All of this makes me wonder if a secondary reason Eppler has put so much focus on really young talent  (Holmes, Paris, Jackson, Deveaux, Knowles, Soto, Adams) and his aggressive promotions (Adams at Burlington, Jones and Marsh at Mobile, etc. etc.) is because he's trying to inflate the trade value. 
He buys in on extremely gifted athletes who might dominate at lower-levels and then hit a bit of a wall as they move up, but they land in this sweet spot where they put up big numbers in Orem, Burlington, and Inland Empire, producing big numbers, or even simply big impressions, purely on their athleticism rather than baseball skill.

D'Shawn Knowles is a really good example, as is Jordyn Adams, and I think Jeremiah Jackson is now too. Deveaux may be by the end of the year. When Knowles was drafted, no one really know what the Angels were getting, and he promptly raked in AZL/Orem. He played so well as an 18-yr old, some publications started counting him as a potential Top 100 guy within a year. Adams was similarly touted. Jackson will almost definitely be seen as a fringe Top 100 guy going into 2020 - maybe not someone who is Top 100, but could be by the end of 2020. A lot of this seems a bit premature for players so young, but it also has a very Yankee feel to it. Get some dynamic, young players producing gaudy numbers that are perhaps unsustainable or not reflective of their ceiling in the bigs or upper minors, and take advantage of that peak value once they reach A/A+ ball. Kyren Paris has played really well, and William Holmes (English) has looked pretty impressive as a two-way guy for his age in AZL. By cultivating these talents and driving their trade value to a point where it reaches a boiling point early in their careers could be a great way to leverage them in 2020-2022 trade talks.

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I'm gonna try to avoid over thinking things, but I don't think future trades are part of their thought process when it comes to high risk high reward, I think that happens as a byproduct of drafting successfully.

IMO, the reason Eppler/Swanson target high end tools is because for the most part those things can't be taught.  You get enough of those guys in the system eventually you start finding guys that translate those tools into actual production.  When those guys start to pile up then you have trade assets.  I don't believe they would target guys in hopes of front loading the system (to facilitate trades), simply because it's a premise that puts too much out of the teams control....

Speaking to someone in the Red Sox system, it's his belief the reason the Angels have been as aggressive as they have with some of their promotions was to attempt to create waves/layers of talent because they simply didn't have anything three years ago. He says it looks like a strategic effort to initiate a constant flow of players and simultaneously avoid having too many players clustered together undermining their value both to the team and prospective trade partners...

It's an interesting take that may or may not have legs...

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13 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm gonna try to avoid over thinking things, but I don't think future trades are part of their thought process when it comes to high risk high reward, I think that happens as a byproduct of drafting successfully.

IMO, the reason Eppler/Swanson target high end tools is because for the most part those things can't be taught.  You get enough of those guys in the system eventually you start finding guys that translate those tools into actual production.  When those guys start to pile up then you have trade assets.  I don't believe they would target guys in hopes of front loading the system (to facilitate trades), simply because it's a premise that puts too much out of the teams control....

Speaking to someone in the Red Sox system, it's his belief the reason the Angels have been as aggressive as they have with some of their promotions was to attempt to create waves/layers of talent because they simply didn't have anything three years ago. He says it looks like a strategic effort to initiate a constant flow of players and simultaneously avoid having too many players clustered together undermining their value both to the team and prospective trade partners...

It's an interesting take that may or may not have legs...

Well, to be fair I did say the trade value inflation was only part of the reasoning. I imagine it's a number of reasons - minor league development, creating waves of talent, challenging players appropriately, influencing trade value, creating a voluminous stash of safe pitching and a pool of high-risk/high-impact potential stars to curtail FA spending on those players, etc. 

The trade value inflation is more of a byproduct of the overall draft/development process, but I do believe it is a bit of an intentional byproduct. The Yankees relied heavily on trading prospects - as much as they did signing star FAs, developing their own stars, and nabbing low-risk/high-reward rebounds and waiver claims. All of that feels very much like what Eppler is building towards here, with the FA superstar signings and trading of prospects the final phases to step into.

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My excitement about Jackson is going to remain luke warm until he starts developing his other skills, especially contact and plate discipline. His current profile--while impressive--almost always collapses at higher levels.

But yeah, dude can mash. Let's hope he can develop some other skills, too.

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very interesting discussion @totdprods and @Inside Pitch

part of the thought process could be that even when a high upside prospect is at the lower levels of the farm system, there is more to dream on which actually does give them more trade value from the word go.  

For instance, a guy like Fletcher didn't have significant trade value until he came up to the bigs and actually performed.  Whereas someone with a higher ceiling who's shown a little something in their first couple stints of minor league ball would turn a few more heads.   So it's not the ultimate trade value but the early trade value.  

As mentioned, it's unlikely the primary reason to target such players but another potential plus of going more high risk, high reward.  Also, I think college players get a year less of org control vs. that of guys coming out of high school.  

the level gaps of talent did seem to play a role in the aggressive promos but it also exposes system deficiencies which we have seen this year.  Normally there's a slew of org guys that can hang at a level where they're a year or two older than most of the competition but the halos seem to be avoiding that for the most part and instead moving that guy up to the next level regardless of whether they end up struggling.  

Jones is probably a good example where most teams would just have left him in A+ for the entire year and then sent him to AA this year for the first time.  

It's a slippery slope though in terms of maintaining confidence vs. allowing stagnation.  

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What's up with Knowles? He actually fits in with this conversation to some extent. After his performance last year, many of us thought they'd aggressively start him in A ball this year. Perhaps due to injury they held him back in Orem, where he's seemingly regressed from last year, turning in a rather mediocre performance. So where before the question was, do they challenge him in Burlington or let him dominate Orem, he's ended up back-sliding and being overmatched in Orem.

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3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What's up with Knowles? He actually fits in with this conversation to some extent. After his performance last year, many of us thought they'd aggressively start him in A ball this year. Perhaps due to injury they held him back in Orem, where he's seemingly regressed from last year, turning in a rather mediocre performance. So where before the question was, do they challenge him in Burlington or let him dominate Orem, he's ended up back-sliding and being overmatched in Orem.

with Knowles, this could be purely age/maturity related.  He's already one of the 5 youngest position players in the pioneer league.  And he was injured on top of it.  If he had picked up where he left off from last year, I think he'd have been called up.  

I haven't paid attention, but maybe they're putting him through a substantial swing change.  

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What is the scoop on 17 year-old pitcher Alejandro Duran in the DSL?     28 innings, 34/5 Ks/BBs, 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP

Was he one of the foreign signings that was played up earlier along with 16 year-old OF Alexander Ramirez? 

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Jackon's Power is real, he's a potential 30-40 hr guy if he reaches his potential. The Strike-out are higher than you would like but he still has room to improve.  I think next year we'll see improvements on this part of his games. You have to also remember, that it took Jone's 2 full season to increase his BB rate, and this year he has a lower K rate than last year, Marsh it took him a year to increase his BB rate and this year his K rate has drop by playing in the tough AA, I also do think that marsh as the best hit tool in our system.Even Adell went thru a similar trend, right up to his struggles. I fully expect Jackson to be a a much better hitter next year.

 

 

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they say that one of the greatest predictors of future success for a minor league player is batting average.  There are obviously major caveats to that of course but if the player is age appropriate for their level then I personally believe it holds a fair amount of water.  

that said, Jackson is still one of the 20 youngest position players in the pioneer league.   Plus, the game has changes to where the above is less true than it's ever been.  

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1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

they say that one of the greatest predictors of future success for a minor league player is batting average.  There are obviously major caveats to that of course but if the player is age appropriate for their level then I personally believe it holds a fair amount of water.  

that said, Jackson is still one of the 20 youngest position players in the pioneer league.   Plus, the game has changes to where the above is less true than it's ever been.  

*Has flashbacks of Howie Kendrick getting shit on for not winning a batting title*

star trek mind blown GIF

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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the level gaps of talent did seem to play a role in the aggressive promos but it also exposes system deficiencies which we have seen this year.  Normally there's a slew of org guys that can hang at a level where they're a year or two older than most of the competition but the halos seem to be avoiding that for the most part and instead moving that guy up to the next level regardless of whether they end up struggling.  

Ive made mention of this in other threads outside of this one -- the lack of organizational players has been an issue both in the development of guys and moreso on the overall performance of the individual teams.  The top end guys have for the most part been alone on their respective teams above rookie ball and they have been thrown at the wolves minus that veteran minor league presence to take some of the heat off them.

This was a good season for the system in that it graduated guys and has given players a taste of what it will take to succeed at higher levels -- I think next year we see an overall uptick across the board if for no other reason because I do believe they will have another year's worth of players in the system.

This is still a farm system on the mend, that's the same reason they need to avoid being overzealous when it comes to trades.   They got talent, they still dont have depth.

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45 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Ive made mention of this in other threads outside of this one -- the lack of organizational players has been an issue both in the development of guys and moreso on the overall performance of the individual teams.  The top end guys have for the most part been alone on their respective teams above rookie ball and they have been thrown at the wolves minus that veteran minor league presence to take some of the heat off them.

This was a good season for the system in that it graduated guys and has given players a taste of what it will take to succeed at higher levels -- I think next year we see an overall uptick across the board if for no other reason because I do believe they will have another year's worth of players in the system.

This is still a farm system on the mend, that's the same reason they need to avoid being overzealous when it comes to trades.   They got talent, they still dont have depth.

I've mentioned this before but I think it's worth repeating.  

the biggest reason this system got to where it was is that we sat out of the international market for YEARS.  Essentially from 2009 to 2016. 

Not only were they not eligible to sign a high end international prospect after inking a worthless Baldoquin, the essentially gassed their entire international operation for almost 5 years.  About a 30% of the talent in baseball comes by international means.   That's like saying you're going to not sign 3 of your top ten draft picks every year for at least 5 years and then not be able to sign your first 2 picks for another 2 years right off the top.  In addition, during that 5 years where you have completely burnt down your entire infrastructure and detached yourself from anything intl related, you basically didn't bring in any players of value for that entire time.  This was also a time where the rules hadn't changed so certain teams took tremendous advantage of bringing in at many players as possible because there were still means to use money as a manipulation.  

Kudos to Arte for taking a stance against a broken and morally bankrupt system but they're where they're at because of it.  

A 16yo prospect in 2013 would be 22 right now.  A quarter to a third of the Angels talent pool is missing at AAA, AA, and A+ because of this.   Let that sink in.  

So yah, we missed out on some early round picks because of FA signings like Albert and Wilson and Hamilton.   And we probably missed out on gaining some talent from trading away a couple vets here and there at the deadline and we had some really bad drafts under Dipoto and he took a hatchet by trading away a ton of depth and every last ounce of currency went toward the major league team.  

All those things added up to treating the farm system about as poorly as one could imagine.  But the major component to this systems absolute annihilation was the complete and utter disregard of almost 30% of the talent pool made up of the intl market.  

It's actually very impressive that Billy has recovered it to middle of the pack in such a short period.  It also tells you why they lack major depth in obvious areas at certain levels and why graduating a couple of players gives people the perception they've taken a step back.  While Billy has been here for 4 years, he's only really had access to that 30% more talent for 2.  And that isn't even taking into account the foundation up rebuild of the entire international infrastructure.  

It was that bad.  

 

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Posted (edited)

FYI - Michael Hermosillo has three home runs already tonight in the SLC game - and its only the the 4th inning.

He’s also hit seven in his last ten games before tonight, so currently at 10 HR last 11 games.

Edited by totdprods

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