The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Angel Oracle]

Instead of Cole and one from the next level group of FAs, how about two from that next level?

The next level guys likely won’t be signing for over 3-4 year deals.

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Instead of Cole and one from the next level group of FAs, how about two from that next level?

The next level guys likely won’t be signing for over 3-4 year deals.

I'm sure that's Plan B.

[Blarg]

Or  Cole and two from the next level. 

 

 

 

Not my money. 

[tdawg87]

Sign Cole, Bumgarner, Odorizzi, and Strasburg.

And then sign Rendon.

 

[Docwaukee]

5 hours ago, totdprods said:

I think that’s everyone’s preferred outcome - no prospects spent, only money - but that also locks in payroll a little more than Eppler would like I’d think. Trading for an arm as the second (or even third) rotation addition makes a ton of sense due to the benefit of keeping salary low enough for other FA moves. 

Not saying it’s wrong, but there’s a lot of benefit in the flexibility a trade would offer as well. 

It comes down to cost in trades and free agency. I’m not terribly excited about having to possibly have a $15m+ Odorizzi three or four years from now if we’ve got Soriano, Yan, Bradish, Pina, Holmes, Aquino, Kochanowicz, etc. beating down the door for a rotation slot, especially if we’ve kept Canning, Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval since we didn’t pull any trades.

If you can't get Odorizzi for less than that, then you don't sign him.  

only a couple pitchers got 3 years or more in the last FA market.  

corbin 6/140 - good in the fist year
eovaldi 4/67.5  - terrible in the first year.  already in the pen
Kikuchi 3/43 - terrible in the first year. 
Lynn - 3/30 - surprisingly good his first year.  

the rest are relievers in Britton, Familia, Ottavino, Joe Kelly.  Two of them have been good and the other two, not so much.  

the year before that, most of the starters signed for 3 or more year have been a mess in Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, Chatwood.  Mike Minor has been the only good choice and he got 3/28.  

I think Odorizzi gets 3/36 max and maybe even a little less aav to get that 3rd year.  

Ryu will go back to the dogs on a two year deal. Maybe 3 years but I doubt it.  

Bumgarner probably gets 4 years but he might end up in Keuchel limbo.  

Wheeler is a wild card but I bet he ends up with 3 years as well.  

Cole will get 6.

If the market stays similar to last year, then the mid tier market for SP is at least closer to being in line as to their true value and I would be ok with one of those guys in addition to Cole.  

I look at a guy like Zack Wheeler and think he's a classic Eppler target.  Big time fastball velo.  High spin rates on his curve.  Some untapped potential.  I could see him being a primary target regardless of whether they get Cole.  

I really don't want to see the Angels trade from the farm to get an arm next year unless they can do so without giving up Marsh.  

While I think there is some growing consensus that the Angels need to sign 3 starters next year, I think if they get Cole and one other, they will be ok.  Maybe a 1yr deal on top of that for a guy like a Wade Miley or a Gio Gonzalez type but I wouldn't have them commit to 3 SP contracts of 3 years or more.  

I also think people will be surprised as to the progression that some of the young guys will make in a year.  Canning, Suarez, Sandoval and Barria are all going to get better.  With a top four of 2 FAs, Ohtani and Heaney, those other four can man the back of the rotation.  Peters can also fill in and maybe even Trop if need be.  That would be ten guys without making a trade.  Add one more on a 1/5 deal and I think we're set while keeping the farm intact.  

They're gonna need Marsh sooner than later.  

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

If you can't get Odorizzi for less than that, then you don't sign him.  

If the market stays similar to last year, then the mid tier market for SP is at least closer to being in line as to their true value and I would be ok with one of those guys in addition to Cole.  

I look at a guy like Zack Wheeler and think he's a classic Eppler target.  Big time fastball velo.  High spin rates on his curve.  Some untapped potential.  I could see him being a primary target regardless of whether they get Cole.  

I really don't want to see the Angels trade from the farm to get an arm next year unless they can do so without giving up Marsh.  

While I think there is some growing consensus that the Angels need to sign 3 starters next year, I think if they get Cole and one other, they will be ok.  Maybe a 1yr deal on top of that for a guy like a Wade Miley or a Gio Gonzalez type but I wouldn't have them commit to 3 SP contracts of 3 years or more.  

I also think people will be surprised as to the progression that some of the young guys will make in a year.  Canning, Suarez, Sandoval and Barria are all going to get better.  With a top four of 2 FAs, Ohtani and Heaney, those other four can man the back of the rotation.  Peters can also fill in and maybe even Trop if need be.  That would be ten guys without making a trade.  Add one more on a 1/5 deal and I think we're set while keeping the farm intact.  

They're gonna need Marsh sooner than later.  

This here is actually the biggest reason why I start to hesitate quite a bit when it comes to the non-Gerrit Cole guys...we need all the arms we can get but paying Odorizzi or Wheeler $12m three years from now might be a total clog in what could be a really good rotation - provided folks stay healthy. 

I think the aggressive promotions will continue, and while the current quartet is here due of necessity, it wouldn't surprise me if Soriano and Yan ended 2020 in AA and were flirting with MLB action as soon as 2021. Any of the Bradish, Ortega, Madero, Wantz, Beasley, Hernandez, Criswell could all wind up MLB-ready at AAA next year as well. And if our current crop takes the next step, the rotation gets very crowded, very quickly - and while that's always ideal and you can never have enough pitching, it's also not doing anyone a lot of favors if things finally do break right and we wind up burning some of our guys' control stashing them in AAA as depth. 

That's why I think after Gerrit Cole, Eppler might still turn towards one-year deals for guys like Wacha, Wood, Gibson, Hamels before considering one or two of the multi-year mid-tier guys, or consider a trade. 
Eppler is worked into a bit of a corner this offseason - his one-year deals in FA have almost all flopped, he's extremely hesitant to commit multi-year deals for mid-tier talent, and he does not trade prospects - he's going to have to deviate from at least one of those in order to address the rotation this winter, so hard for us to really know what to expect since he's being pushed into a new direction. 
if 
If they miss out on Cole, I have a very hard time imagining them committing 2/5ths of the rotation for $12-$15m for 3 years for two arms like Odorizzi and Wheeler, even if they'd go a long way to helping our 2020 odds. They might complicate the 2021/2022 payrolls and rotation slots unnecessarily. And before anyone suggests "Well if everyone's good and healthy you can trade arms for bats" I would be really surprised if Eppler will ever feel comfortable dealing good, young, cheap MLB pitching after what he's gone through here.

Considering all of that - it leads me to believe Eppler might opt to swing a trade for an arm before signing a mid-tier guy if they happen to sign Cole. If they don't, no doubt Eppler considers signing one or even two, as there should be enough flexibility across the board for SP FAs to make the salary and years work.

Edited August 26, 2019 by totdprods

[tdawg87]

No way man. I am not even remotely comfortable relying on the young guys taking a big enough step forward to make this a competitive rotation next year. 

Obviously we can't assume Cole will sign here, but he absolutely has to be priority 1. IF they can sign Cole, they still need to replace Skaggs. Hamels wouldn't be bad, but someone is going to give him 2 years. No thank you to Wood or Wacha. No more reclamation projects. Arte needs to sign checks with his balls this off-season. 

[Angel Oracle]

Cole and a two year contract for Hamels sounds good.      

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

No way man. I am not even remotely comfortable relying on the young guys taking a big enough step forward to make this a competitive rotation next year. 

Obviously we can't assume Cole will sign here, but he absolutely has to be priority 1. IF they can sign Cole, they still need to replace Skaggs. Hamels wouldn't be bad, but someone is going to give him 2 years. No thank you to Wood or Wacha. No more reclamation projects. Arte needs to sign checks with his balls this off-season. 

I'm not expecting the young rotation guys to step forward enough in 2020, but two or three of them - Yan and Soriano will be right behind them soon - could/should be making big progress come 2021. Stemming from that is my belief they shouldn't go too crazy on too many mid-tier/multi-year FA SPs. We've put too much work into building a flexible payroll and a future depending on youth to risk having $30m+ tied up to a likely middling Wheeler and Odorizzi come 2022. 

Cole obviously is priority 1A, and I particularly like the idea of Hamels on a one or two year deal. Failing either of those, I"m totally fine signing one mid-tier arm - we need that in those circumstances - but Eppler shouldn't overreact to try and force the 2020 team into competition since the timeline he's been operating on doesn't have 2020 as our big year - it's our entry year into the new window, not the peak.

A trade could also net a mid-tier arm without clogging payroll - either a one-year rental like Ray, Stroman, DeSclafani, Minor - or an asset with longer control, such as Boyd. 

[tdawg87]

32 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I'm not expecting the young rotation guys to step forward enough in 2020, but two or three of them - Yan and Soriano will be right behind them soon - could/should be making big progress come 2021. Stemming from that is my belief they shouldn't go too crazy on too many mid-tier/multi-year FA SPs. We've put too much work into building a flexible payroll and a future depending on youth to risk having $30m+ tied up to a likely middling Wheeler and Odorizzi come 2022. 

Cole obviously is priority 1A, and I particularly like the idea of Hamels on a one or two year deal. Failing either of those, I"m totally fine signing one mid-tier arm - we need that in those circumstances - but Eppler shouldn't overreact to try and force the 2020 team into competition since the timeline he's been operating on doesn't have 2020 as our big year - it's our entry year into the new window, not the peak.

A trade could also net a mid-tier arm without clogging payroll - either a one-year rental like Ray, Stroman, DeSclafani, Minor - or an asset with longer control, such as Boyd. 

I get where you are going with this and I understand the sentiment. I'm sure Arte and Eppler have considered the very same thing. Obviously the payroll doesn't work in a vacuum, and it can't be considered solely on a year-to-year basis.

The caveat to that, is the ceiling of Barria, Suarez, and Sandoval is pretty much that of a number 4 starter. Mayyyybe a number 3 if you want to be generous. There's a very good chance 2 of those 3 flame out and either become relievers or journeymen. Yan and especially Soriano could be knocking on the MLB door come 2022. But that's not a guarantee and that's still 2 full years away. And in Soriano's case, if he reaches his full potential the Angels will absolutely make room for him.

I realize 2020 isn't "the peak", but I still fully expect them to compete. And I don't mean they finish 3-4 games out of the 2nd WC. I mean they finish 3-4 games out of 1st and win one of the wild cards. To get there, they need serious pitching help. That means Cole AND a mid-level starter. At least. If Cole can't be signed they need Wheeler and Odorizzi. 

The younger guys can supplement the rotation as needed. After all, the oldest of the 3 is Barria and he's 22. 

[Second Base]

I mean just looking at the present situation as a whole, there are definitely some Eppler targets. First and foremost, he was heavily in on Corbin, which says to me that he's very cognizant of the Angels needs at the top of the rotation on a long term basis. I wish he'd go about solving those from the draft, but whatever.

In Harvey we saw an Eppler project where he chases high velocity, high spin rates and thinks he can develop them. That obviously was a massive failure. And in Cahill, he saw a steady back of the rotation option which if it didn't work out, could be moved to the pen where he's been brilliant before. Also a fail.

Coming into the year, the rotation and depth was expected to be Harvey, Cahill, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Stratton, Pena, Suarez, Canning and Sandoval. That's 10 deep. He's even mentioned a couple times before a rotation needs to be 10 deep.

Now coming into next year, it's looking like Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Suarez, Sandoval and Pena. Given the attrition rate of this year's starters, half of which aren't starters or pitching for this team anymore, and the fact that there are only seven available, you can expect a series of moves. Furthermore, he's made it clear that entering a season with Barria, Pena, Suarez or Sandoval penciled in as the 5th starter without strong justification just isn't something he's going to do.

On top of that, even when Ohtani was healthy, Eppler was still hesitant to make him part of a five man rotation. He wanted to go to a six man rotation and a series of long relievers to try and release pressure on the starters.

Billy Eppler is going to bring in three starting pitchers, either via trade or free agency, I can tell you that right now.

The Angels likely have around 40 million to spend before they reach their payroll limit. Pretty much everyone and their mother expects Gerrit Cole to be here and I'm no different. 

And as Doc said, Wheeler is very much an Eppler type of starter. I expect him and Cole to cost 40 million. Which means that third starting pitcher that Eppler brings in, is going to need to come via trade, and is going to need to be relatively inexpensive. Teams aren't falling over themselves to trade those guys. I think he'll work something out for Matthew Boyd, and it'll cost the prospect all inside sources have indicated he won't trade, which is Brandon Marsh. 

So next year's six man rotation, I believe will be Cole, Boyd, Ohtani, Wheeler, Heaney and Canning, with Pena pitching out of the bullpen, and Barria, Suarez and Sandoval all in AAA.

Edited August 26, 2019 by Second Base

[tdawg87]

33 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I mean just looking at the present situation as a whole, there are definitely some Eppler targets. First and foremost, he was heavily in on Corbin, which says to me that he's very cognizant of the Angels needs at the top of the rotation on a long term basis. I wish he'd go about solving those from the draft, but whatever.

In Harvey we saw an Eppler project where he chases high velocity, high spin rates and thinks he can develop them. That obviously was a massive failure. And in Cahill, he saw a steady back of the rotation option which if it didn't work out, could be moved to the pen where he's been brilliant before. Also a fail.

Coming into the year, the rotation and depth was expected to be Harvey, Cahill, Heaney, Skaggs, Barria, Stratton, Pena, Suarez, Canning and Sandoval. That's 10 deep. He's even mentioned a couple times before a rotation needs to be 10 deep.

Now coming into next year, it's looking like Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Barria, Suarez, Sandoval and Pena. Given the attrition rate of this year's starters, half of which aren't starters or pitching for this team anymore, and the fact that there are only seven available, you can expect a series of moves. Furthermore, he's made it clear that entering a season with Barria, Pena, Suarez or Sandoval penciled in as the 5th starter without strong justification just isn't something he's going to do.

On top of that, even when Ohtani was healthy, Eppler was still hesitant to make him part of a five man rotation. He wanted to go to a six man rotation and a series of long relievers to try and release pressure on the starters.

Billy Eppler is going to bring in three starting pitchers, either via trade or free agency, I can tell you that right now.

The Angels likely have around 40 million to spend before they reach their payroll limit. Pretty much everyone and their mother expects Gerrit Cole to be here and I'm no different. 

And as Doc said, Wheeler is very much an Eppler type of starter. I expect him and Cole to cost 40 million. Which means that third starting pitcher that Eppler brings in, is going to need to come via trade, and is going to need to be relatively inexpensive. Teams aren't falling over themselves to trade those guys. I think he'll work something out for Matthew Boyd, and it'll cost the prospect all inside sources have indicated he won't trade, which is Brandon Marsh. 

So next year's six man rotation, I believe will be Cole, Boyd, Ohtani, Wheeler, Heaney and Canning, with Pena pitching out of the bullpen, and Barria, Suarez and Sandoval all in AAA.

I fully expect Eppler to get 3 pitchers as well, and I think it plays into getting Cole.

I wouldn't be surprised if Eppler gets Wheeler very early on in the off-season, then maybe trades for someone like Boyd. That way Boras can't play his BS game with them. 

Make no mistake, Cole is absolutely Target 1A Platinum Premium Nachos Supreme. But everyone knows the Angels need him, especially Boras. 

[Docwaukee]

Cole Hamels will be 36 to start next year.  Maybe on a 1yr deal as the 3rd guy they add, but not as the second guy.  

Eppler isn't going to pay the prospect scratch to get Boyd.  The Tigers likely had ample opportunity to move him at the deadline with some good offers in an elevated market and chose to keep him for now.  That tells me where their expectations are at.  He's off a cliff since June 2nd.  That's not a few starts, but 15 starts spanning more good ones than he had made.  He's a mid rotation guy at best.  If they want to let a team pay mid rotation starter prices for him then maybe consider it.  To me, this is bullet dodged.  He's appropriately regressed to his career numbers after 10 good starts at the beginning of the year.  No way in hell am I giving up Brandon Marsh and several others for that when I can get Wheeler or Odorizzi at 3/30 or slightly more.  

They should be able to handle Cole and a 3yr deal for another starter.  Losing Skaggs really really sucks.  He was probably going to make 6-7 mil next year.  Adding another 3-4 mil to replace him isn't the end of the world.  Replacing Harvey, Cahill, Bour, Lucroy, Allen, Skaggs, Calhoun with two and maybe even 3 pitchers shouldn't be huge problem.  

 

 

 

[tdawg87]

Cole replaces Harvey, Ohtani replaces Cahill

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Cole Hamels will be 36 to start next year.  Maybe on a 1yr deal as the 3rd guy they add, but not as the second guy.  

Eppler isn't going to pay the prospect scratch to get Boyd.  The Tigers likely had ample opportunity to move him at the deadline with some good offers in an elevated market and chose to keep him for now.  That tells me where their expectations are at.  He's off a cliff since June 2nd.  That's not a few starts, but 15 starts spanning more good ones than he had made.  He's a mid rotation guy at best.  If they want to let a team pay mid rotation starter prices for him then maybe consider it.  To me, this is bullet dodged.  He's appropriately regressed to his career numbers after 10 good starts at the beginning of the year.  No way in hell am I giving up Brandon Marsh and several others for that when I can get Wheeler or Odorizzi at 3/30 or slightly more.  

They should be able to handle Cole and a 3yr deal for another starter.  Losing Skaggs really really sucks.  He was probably going to make 6-7 mil next year.  Adding another 3-4 mil to replace him isn't the end of the world.  Replacing Harvey, Cahill, Bour, Lucroy, Allen, Skaggs, Calhoun with two and maybe even 3 pitchers shouldn't be huge problem.  

 

This is pretty much exactly where I'm at on all counts. Well done for being as smart as me (or maybe as dumb).

I'm of the view that because Eppler actually has some breathing room with money, he should only trade prospects if he has to, or if someone makes him an offer he can't refuse. But it would seem that he can sign Cole and one of Wheeler/Odorizzi and still remain within budget, especially if Calhoun isn't optioned.

The focus is still the 2020s, not 2020 or bust. Brandon Marsh is a major factor in that decade - even if he is ultimately traded. But I really look forward to seeing the "Angels outfield factory" churn out good, young outfielders over the next five years, and see which of them become the true jewels: Adell, Marsh, Adams, Knowles, Deveaux, Ramirez, and eventually more to come.

[tdawg87]

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Cole Hamels will be 36 to start next year.  Maybe on a 1yr deal as the 3rd guy they add, but not as the second guy.  

Eppler isn't going to pay the prospect scratch to get Boyd.  The Tigers likely had ample opportunity to move him at the deadline with some good offers in an elevated market and chose to keep him for now.  That tells me where their expectations are at.  He's off a cliff since June 2nd.  That's not a few starts, but 15 starts spanning more good ones than he had made.  He's a mid rotation guy at best.  If they want to let a team pay mid rotation starter prices for him then maybe consider it.  To me, this is bullet dodged.  He's appropriately regressed to his career numbers after 10 good starts at the beginning of the year.  No way in hell am I giving up Brandon Marsh and several others for that when I can get Wheeler or Odorizzi at 3/30 or slightly more.  

They should be able to handle Cole and a 3yr deal for another starter.  Losing Skaggs really really sucks.  He was probably going to make 6-7 mil next year.  Adding another 3-4 mil to replace him isn't the end of the world.  Replacing Harvey, Cahill, Bour, Lucroy, Allen, Skaggs, Calhoun with two and maybe even 3 pitchers shouldn't be huge problem.  

 

 

 

I'd take Boyd if we don't give up Marsh, but something tells me Marsh would have to be included. I just see Boyd as the perfect replacement for Skaggs.

But if Arte is willing to spend, allocating $40 million to the rotation is probably the best option.

[Angel Oracle]

I'm with Doc.   Despite the Ks from June 1 on (120 in 86.1 innings), Boyd has been VERY mediocre otherwise, especially the near 6.00 ERA and allowing 25 HRs in only those 86.1 innings.  

Do NOT include Marsh in a trade for him. 

[Inside Pitch]

 

[Second Base]

4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Cole Hamels will be 36 to start next year.  Maybe on a 1yr deal as the 3rd guy they add, but not as the second guy.  

Eppler isn't going to pay the prospect scratch to get Boyd.  The Tigers likely had ample opportunity to move him at the deadline with some good offers in an elevated market and chose to keep him for now.  That tells me where their expectations are at.  He's off a cliff since June 2nd.  That's not a few starts, but 15 starts spanning more good ones than he had made.  He's a mid rotation guy at best.  If they want to let a team pay mid rotation starter prices for him then maybe consider it.  To me, this is bullet dodged.  He's appropriately regressed to his career numbers after 10 good starts at the beginning of the year.  No way in hell am I giving up Brandon Marsh and several others for that when I can get Wheeler or Odorizzi at 3/30 or slightly more.  

They should be able to handle Cole and a 3yr deal for another starter.  Losing Skaggs really really sucks.  He was probably going to make 6-7 mil next year.  Adding another 3-4 mil to replace him isn't the end of the world.  Replacing Harvey, Cahill, Bour, Lucroy, Allen, Skaggs, Calhoun with two and maybe even 3 pitchers shouldn't be huge problem.  

 

 

 

Ok.....well a Matthew Boyd type of replacement then.

And this is just my guess.  Personally, I'd much rather keep Marsh and have him and Adell flank Trout in CF and move Upton to 1B/DH.  But that just isn't happening.  And moving our best defensive outfielder over to 1B sounds like a bad idea.  So the outcome is one of three.

a. The Angels move Upton out of LF, either via a positional change or trade, and Marsh plays RF, with Adell in LF.

b. The Angels keep Brandon Marsh in AAA for a couple years, then have him fill in as the 4th OF once he's out of options, and then have him replace Upton in four years. 

c. The Angels trade Marsh.  

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

I'm almost dreading Adams' inevitable breakout campaign next year.  If you think it's bad trying to concoct scenarios where Brandon Marsh stays, imagine having to dream one up where Brandon Marsh, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jordyn Adams are all on the field together. 

[rafibomb]

7 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm almost dreading Adams' inevitable breakout campaign next year.  If you think it's bad trying to concoct scenarios where Brandon Marsh stays, imagine having to dream one up where Brandon Marsh, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jordyn Adams are all on the field together. 

I remember there being quite a few people in the scouting community that saw Jordyn Adams as a possible 65 FV guy. Now, he's closing out the year as a 19 years old in High-A. I could honestly see both him and Marsh break out in the top 50 prospects next season.

[Angelsjunky]

15 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm almost dreading Adams' inevitable breakout campaign next year.  If you think it's bad trying to concoct scenarios where Brandon Marsh stays, imagine having to dream one up where Brandon Marsh, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jordyn Adams are all on the field together. 

Well, he's still likely going to need another 2-3 more full seasons in the minors, that should give us an ETA of sometime in 2022, maybe 2023. By then the Angels should know what they have in Adell and Marsh. It could be a good "problem" to have.

[Docwaukee]

23 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm almost dreading Adams' inevitable breakout campaign next year.  If you think it's bad trying to concoct scenarios where Brandon Marsh stays, imagine having to dream one up where Brandon Marsh, Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Jordyn Adams are all on the field together. 

Trout to 1st.  He and Upton can platoon.  

[rafibomb]

 

 

[tdawg87]