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The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread


Chuck

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14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Robinson Pina with another nice run of late.  Tonight he went 5ip, 3h, 0er, 1bb, 9k.  

He's been racking up the k's big time.  Over his last 5 starts, 21.1ip, 15h, 4er, 5bb, 36k.  

He's got 65k over his last 40ip.  He was actually very solid last year as well.  6'4 180lb. RHer from the DR.  So he's got that frame Scout's dream on and he's still only 20 years old.  

here's an old scouting report on him from about a year ago.  

https://2080baseball.com/spotlight/robinson-pina/

my guess is that his velo has picked up some from last year.  

Looks like he has a pretty good sinker?   1.19 GB/FB ratio so far in 2019

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14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Robinson Pina with another nice run of late.  Tonight he went 5ip, 3h, 0er, 1bb, 9k.  

He's been racking up the k's big time.  Over his last 5 starts, 21.1ip, 15h, 4er, 5bb, 36k.  

He's got 65k over his last 40ip.  He was actually very solid last year as well.  6'4 180lb. RHer from the DR.  So he's got that frame Scout's dream on and he's still only 20 years old.  

here's an old scouting report on him from about a year ago.  

https://2080baseball.com/spotlight/robinson-pina/

my guess is that his velo has picked up some from last year.  

Yup, July/August he has a K/9 rate over 14! 55 in 35 innings, lots of swinging strikes, lots of grounders. He and Ortega have taken quite the step forward. Not quite Soriano/Yan, but right in line with a Luis Madero-type, should see the bigs in some capacity (multi-inning RP?) and slot in around #25-#30 on prospect lists.

12 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Jeremy Beasley made his AAA debut.  He had a rocky 2nd inning but only allowed 3 er over 5ip with 4k.  He probably sees a couple spot starts in the bigs next year and could end up one of those guys with options who can chip in at the back of the rotation here and there while on the shuttle to SLC.  

Mattson was promoted to SLC also - good to see these guys getting a step closer. Also now that they're in SLC/PCL, tracking most stats can seemingly go out the window.

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From the Kiley McDaniel chat today:

James
12:55
Is Jeremiah Jackson a guy that could be moved up to 50 FV? His power output has been insane this year.
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:56
Probably not there yet, since his 50 FV age peers are in Low-A and High-A and he's still in short season
 
12:57
That said, he isn't that far off and we were the high guys on him as an amateur (31st on our board, 57th overall pick) since not many knew he had a bad summer due in large part to an eye issue that was fixed for his insane spring HS performance, but it was against weak competition, so some teams didn't due their full deep dive to find that out.
 
James
12:58
Has Jordyn Adams disappointed this year or is this about what you expected given his two sport background?
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:59
Posting a 112 wRC+ as a 19-year-old in Low-A with almost no high level baseball background is really good. That's 12% better than league average with the bat against a league full of guys that are all older than him, and the bat is the weakest part of his game.
 
 
He's definitely got a good shot to get the bump to 50 FV with those peers I referenced earlier
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1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:
James
12:58
Has Jordyn Adams disappointed this year or is this about what you expected given his two sport background?
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:59
Posting a 112 wRC+ as a 19-year-old in Low-A with almost no high level baseball background is really good. That's 12% better than league average with the bat against a league full of guys that are all older than him, and the bat is the weakest part of his game.
 
 
He's definitely got a good shot to get the bump to 50 FV with those peers I referenced earlier

I’ll use this as another opportunity to remind everyone that Kevin Maitan is younger than Jordyn Adams (only by a few months, but that’s still something measurable when you’re 19) and while he has far more baseball experience than Adams, should be a nice reminder at how much of a project he remains as well.

Since revamping his swing in mid-July, Maitan is hitting .263/.336/.432/.768 with three doubles, a triple, five home runs, and 9 walks to 31 K in 29 G/131 PA. 

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14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

From the Kiley McDaniel chat today:

James
12:55
Is Jeremiah Jackson a guy that could be moved up to 50 FV? His power output has been insane this year.
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:56
Probably not there yet, since his 50 FV age peers are in Low-A and High-A and he's still in short season
 
12:57
That said, he isn't that far off and we were the high guys on him as an amateur (31st on our board, 57th overall pick) since not many knew he had a bad summer due in large part to an eye issue that was fixed for his insane spring HS performance, but it was against weak competition, so some teams didn't due their full deep dive to find that out.
 
James
12:58
Has Jordyn Adams disappointed this year or is this about what you expected given his two sport background?
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:59
Posting a 112 wRC+ as a 19-year-old in Low-A with almost no high level baseball background is really good. That's 12% better than league average with the bat against a league full of guys that are all older than him, and the bat is the weakest part of his game.
 
 
He's definitely got a good shot to get the bump to 50 FV with those peers I referenced earlier

thanks for posting this. 

Just for people's reference, fangraphs has about 115 players ranked at 50 FV or higher.  

And the comment about Jackson's level is very important.   There is one guy in the top 115 that is currently in rookie ball.  Bobby Witt Jr.  This year's #2 overall pick and straight out of HS.  Again, I think it's important to understand the context of how these guys get ranked.  Age and level are huge factors as far as risk for the ranking entity.   All those high upside HS players and foreign born players that were age 16-18 two years ago are never going to show up in anyone's top 100 unless they are a supreme talent like Adell, top 10 picks or both.  Even the top intl guys don't get ranked in the top 100 until they hit A ball at least.  

Point being is that the real heavy lifting for elevating this farm system started probably 2 or maybe 3 years ago.  Eppler has done a nice job of infusing a few solid or even potential star level players into the upper parts of the system but we won't really know if his methods for signing, drafting and developing is going to work for probably 2 and maybe 3 more years when all those teenagers from 2-3 years ago get to AA or so.  

Because of prior transgressions, then entirety of the lower levels were a wasteland and he essentially had to start over.  

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On 8/22/2019 at 3:48 AM, SoWhat said:

Nice to see Marsh’s OPS at AA finally crack the .800 mark (.807) 

I'm not saying this is applies to you but, I don't think people fully appreciate how difficult a hitting environment the Southern League is.   

The league average batting line is only a .681 OPS, and there are all of 9 hitters in the entire league with an OPS above 800.  Of those 9, only three are 23 or under; Marsh who is 21 and Braves' farmhands Drew Waters (now at AAA) their #3 ranked prospect, and Christian Pache who is 20 and considered the #1 prospect in the Braves organization.    

Both Waters and Pache are top 100 guys.    Pache ranks 14th overall, Waters 29th overall.  

These are their BB and K totals while at AA, btw.

Waters - 28 BB/121 Ks - 420 ABs
Pache - 34 BB/104 Ks - 392 ABs
Marsh - 45 BB/83 Ks - 322 ABs

Marsh may be the Angels prospects Angels fans are most underrating.  Everyone wants to see the power but that plate discipline being where it is bodes well for his future.  

Edited by Inside Pitch
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Brandon Marsh is tricky to evaluate. If there's any disappointment around him it is that after his stellar performance in Orem in 2017 and Burlington 2018, his numbers haven't been as good in Inland Empire last year and Mobile this year, at least earlier on. But obviously he's adjusting just fine and is a very good prospect. I still see him as our #2. If the power doesn't develop he's still going to be a solid 3 WAR regular in the majors; if the power develops he'll be a bordeline star, 4-5 WAR. IMO.

Fangraphs has him #85 and 50 FV, which is very solid. I suspect next year he'll move up to 55 FV and top 50. Maybe not to start the year, but as he plays a couple months in Salt Lake he'll earn the jump. Hopefully we'll see him in Anaheim by September 2020 at the latest.

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Here's an optimistic projection for Marsh: Jim Edmonds. Edmonds showed mediocre power in the minors and only hit 5 HR in his first 112 major league games. Then he hit 33 HR in his first full season (1995), and of course was a monster for the Cardinals in his 30s.

I think the chances of Marsh being as good as Edmonds, who is a borderline Hall of Famer, are pretty slim, but there are some similarities.

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3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Brandon Marsh is tricky to evaluate. If there's any disappointment around him it is that after his stellar performance in Orem in 2017 and Burlington 2018, his numbers haven't been as good in Inland Empire last year and Mobile this year, at least earlier on.

Not to belabor a point here but -- Orem and Burlington were the closest he's ever been to being at the league average age for the level he was at, stands to reason he did as well as he did..  Dude was 1.8 years younger than the league average at Orem, 1.4 years younger at Burlington.   He was 2.3 years younger than the level in High A, and 2.6 years younger at AA.   

All I want to see from him now is an injury free season next year -- I think the rest takes care of itself.

 

 

 

Edited by Inside Pitch
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