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Posted (edited)

Noticed this about D'Shawn Knowles today...

  • 2019: 254 PA, 10 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HR, 22 walks, 68 strikeouts, .682 OPS - .318 BAbip 
  • 2018: 253 PA, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 5 HR, 28 walks, 65 strikeouts, .855 OPS - .418 BAbip

The difference in Knowles' season - which many would see as a disappointment - is 11 singles, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 6 walks fewer than last year. Not really enough to get too concerned about. 

Perhaps some, including myself, rated his '18 a little too highly - a .418 BAbip is pretty damn lucky.

But, everything else suggests that Knowles' 2019 season really hasn't been that big of a disappointment - he's pretty much been the exact same player - BB rates, K rates, ISO, line drive, fly ball, ground ball, pull, opposite trends are all really similar to last year. He's just had a few less singles drop in and taken a few less walks. Given that he's repeating Orem, not too unlikely that a young player coming off a good season in familiar settings might tend to be a little more aggressive.

Looking at this, it takes away some of last year's shine, but also brings some hope back around - we shouldn't be too discouraged with his current .244/.311/.371/.682 line, especially when you consider it's still only 18 and already wrapping his second season in Orem (aside from his AZL debut) at 17. Trent Deveaux's step forwards this year also ease the 'disappointment' a bit.

Also, thanks @Dochalo - I was coming to post about William Holmes and how incredibly exciting he's becoming on both sides of the ball really quickly, but you beat me to it!
I see Drevian Williams-Nelson has also made it up to Orem and is showing some decent discipline, and Brandon White has quietly had a pretty good debut for Orem as well.

Edited by totdprods

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10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Noticed this about D'Shawn Knowles today...

  • 2019: 254 PA, 10 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HR, 22 walks, 68 strikeouts, .682 OPS - .318 BAbip 
  • 2018: 253 PA, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 5 HR, 28 walks, 65 strikeouts, .855 OPS - .418 BAbip

The difference in Knowles' season - which many would see as a disappointment - is 11 singles, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 6 walks fewer than last year. Not really enough to get too concerned about. 

Perhaps some, including myself, rated his '18 a little too highly - a .418 BAbip is pretty damn lucky.

But, everything else suggests that Knowles' 2019 season really hasn't been that big of a disappointment - he's pretty much been the exact same player - BB rates, K rates, ISO, line drive, fly ball, ground ball, pull, opposite trends are all really similar to last year. He's just had a few less singles drop in and taken a few less walks. Given that he's repeating Orem, not too unlikely that a young player coming off a good season in familiar settings might tend to be a little more aggressive.

Looking at this, it takes away some of last year's shine, but also brings some hope back around - we shouldn't be too discouraged with his current .244/.311/.371/.682 line, especially when you consider it's still only 18 and already wrapping his second season in Orem (aside from his AZL debut) at 17. 

Also, thanks @Dochalo - I was coming to post about William Holmes and how incredibly exciting he's becoming on both sides of the ball really quickly, but you beat me to it!
I see Drevian Williams-Nelson has also made it up to Orem and is showing some decent discipline, and Brandon White has quietly had a pretty good debut for Orem as well.

nice job on knowles.  It was the pop he showed at Orem last year that had me most encouraged.  He had about the same number of xbh in about half the PA.  

he actually started the year off well and then went through a tremendous slump.  He's starting to come around and bit.  I am sure the league adjusted to him and now he's making the adjustments back.  As a switch hitter he was hammering the ball from the left side last year and then this year he's really struggled from the left side of the plate.  

He's still among the youngest in the league too.  I do wonder if they'll experiment with him at 2b before long.   

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2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

nice job on knowles.  It was the pop he showed at Orem last year that had me most encouraged.  He had about the same number of xbh in about half the PA.  

he actually started the year off well and then went through a tremendous slump.  He's starting to come around and bit.  I am sure the league adjusted to him and now he's making the adjustments back.  As a switch hitter he was hammering the ball from the left side last year and then this year he's really struggled from the left side of the plate.  

He's still among the youngest in the league too.  I do wonder if they'll experiment with him at 2b before long.   

More and more I'm also just seeing how misleading averaging stats can be  - obviously, there is some weight in them as they are indeed, an average, but, especially when looking at prospects or rookie MLBers, digging deeper is necessary. Like with Knowles, or Adams, or Jones, or Maitan, these guys are developing and advancing and learning. They're not usually a finished product in relation to what's around them. One lengthy ice-cold snap can kill an OPS when there's only 250-300 PA, and that's not that surprising given how young these guys are and where they're at in their careers. 

When you dive in and look at game-by-game results for these players, you often can see much more clearly than MLB players - where averaging stats do hold a lot more weight - when a player is out of wack. 

For instance, nearly 50% of Matt Thaiss' strikeouts came in his first quarter of MLB plate appearances - 14 in his first 30 PA, and only 22 in his following 86. Clearly, he's made some level of adjustment. 

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15 minutes ago, totdprods said:

More and more I'm also just seeing how misleading averaging stats can be  - obviously, there is some weight in them as they are indeed, an average, but, especially when looking at prospects or rookie MLBers, digging deeper is necessary. Like with Knowles, or Adams, or Jones, or Maitan, these guys are developing and advancing and learning. They're not usually a finished product in relation to what's around them. One lengthy ice-cold snap can kill an OPS when there's only 250-300 PA, and that's not that surprising given how young these guys are and where they're at in their careers. 

When you dive in and look at game-by-game results for these players, you often can see much more clearly than MLB players - where averaging stats do hold a lot more weight - when a player is out of wack. 

For instance, nearly 50% of Matt Thaiss' strikeouts came in his first quarter of MLB plate appearances - 14 in his first 30 PA, and only 22 in his following 86. Clearly, he's made some level of adjustment. 

I've made note of that earlier in this thread that I tend to put too much emphasis on the cumulative numbers and the occasional snapshot where I get to see a guy play.  

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36 minutes ago, totdprods said:

More and more I'm also just seeing how misleading averaging stats can be  - obviously, there is some weight in them as they are indeed, an average, but, especially when looking at prospects or rookie MLBers, digging deeper is necessary. Like with Knowles, or Adams, or Jones, or Maitan, these guys are developing and advancing and learning. They're not usually a finished product in relation to what's around them. One lengthy ice-cold snap can kill an OPS when there's only 250-300 PA, and that's not that surprising given how young these guys are and where they're at in their careers. 

When you dive in and look at game-by-game results for these players, you often can see much more clearly than MLB players - where averaging stats do hold a lot more weight - when a player is out of wack. 

For instance, nearly 50% of Matt Thaiss' strikeouts came in his first quarter of MLB plate appearances - 14 in his first 30 PA, and only 22 in his following 86. Clearly, he's made some level of adjustment. 

I've also noticed his strikes in AAA look pretty different from his MLB strikeouts. To start the year in AAA, he was getting beat on breaking balls low in the zone. He made the adjustments, which led to his chest promotion. Once he was promoted, most of those swings and misses changed to fastballs above the belt at 94+. That really didn't happen a lot in AAA, which only further illuminates the level of pitching he saw in AAA vs the majors.

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Yeah, I agree that last year's BABIP-fueled performance by Knowles led most of us to overrate him a bit. When signed, he was considered the lesser prospect to Deveaux; even if his tools are inferior, theyr'e still good and he seems to have better make-up so I'd call them pretty equal prospects at this point. But last year some of us were probably considering adding him to the Adell/Marsh group. I think its clear that--at least at this point--he's in a tier below, along with Deveaux. Adams is between the two - he could join Adell/Marsh with a breakout 2020, or he could settle in more in the range of Knowles/Deveaux.

 

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Lots of Angels prospects talked about in today's Fangraphs chat:

Spiezio’s Pizzaria: AZL Angels were a bit lack luster as a general group but outside of Trent Deveaux, were there any guys of some note?

Eric A Longenhagen: William Holmes. I’ve seen him up to 95, flash plus change, average breaking ball. Pretty good for a two-way guy from a cold-weather high school

James: Is Brandon Marsh a guy that could eventually be a 55 FV? He is top 5 in BA, OBP and OPS in AA at 21. When can we expect to see him in Anaheim?

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s a guy whose swing keeps shifting as they try to get him to lift more. if he starts doing that, yeah he’ll move up. Glad we stayed on him.
 
Jack: Have you been impressed by Jose Soriano this season? His fastball and curve seem to very impressive, but do you see him ever cutting down on the BB?
 
Eric A Longenhagen: Same guy, for me. Body, fastball and breaking ball are all there, delivery is okay, striek throwing is not. If that comes he could be a mid-rotation starter. If not he’s probably still a good reliever

Jahmai: Is it time to give up on Jahmai Jones?

Eric A Longenhagen: nah, makeup is too good

 
 

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1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

And just like that FG sorta echos what most of us have been saying.

Good dig, AJ...

Yup, my thought exactly. His takes all seem to be similar to the consensus in this thread, although some here seem to be a bit more optimistic (hopeful) on Soriano being something more than a mid-rotation starter.

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So what’s the deal with guys like Jose Rojas, Jared Walsh (especially this guy), and Taylor Ward? Are these guys just “too old” to be considered legit prospects for us? When will they all get their REAL shot? Walsh is ripping the damn cover off the ball, setting records. I know Ward has been up, but we need to see what these guys got and call them up now while this season is wash. You never know when you will have the opportunity to do that again, well hopefully next year we are contending and don’t have that “luxury.” 

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Walsh ties Trumbo, and ironically, Trumbo is another one of those guys who if they were a decade younger, would also be a two way player. 

Most teams liked Trumbo better off the mound in high school. He apparently sat low to mid 90's, and USC was going to let him play both ways, a la Mark McGwire.

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27 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Who is the farm’s POTY?

Adell?  Marsh?  Walsh?  Rojas?

Anyone else?

gotta be Walsh at this point.  Especially if he gets to 40hrs.  

Ward has had a great season as well.  

the thing that gets overlooked on Walsh is his ability to hit.  He certainly whiffs a fair amount, but he's got a career minor league avg over .300.  

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27 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

gotta be Walsh at this point.  Especially if he gets to 40hrs.  

Ward has had a great season as well.  

the thing that gets overlooked on Walsh is his ability to hit.  He certainly whiffs a fair amount, but he's got a career minor league avg over .300.  

Baseball America gave it to Jo Adell. 

Jo Adell: Angels 2019 Minor League Player Of The Year

By Mike DiGiovanna on August 22, 2019
   

Jo Adell has started more games at the two corner outfield spots than in center field this season, a pretty good indication of how close the 20-year-old is getting to the major leagues.

The Angels believe the 6-foot-3, 215-pound Adell has the physical tools and defensive instincts to be an All-Star center fielder, but with that position currently manned by Mike Trout, the best all-around player in baseball, Adell’s entrée to the big leagues will be in either left or right field.

That won’t come this season. The Angels do not plan to call up Adell, a 2017 first-round pick out of Ballard High School in Louisville, when rosters expand on Sept. 1. But they are already prepping Adell for his big league promotion, which is expected to come at some point in 2020.

"He’s a five-tool player—he hits for average and power, he can run, field and throw,” Angels general manager Billy Eppler said. "As far as athleticism and power, his size, speed and strength—the trifecta that we look for—he checks all of those boxes. His play will let us know what his timetable is.”

After missing most of April and May because of hamstring and ankle injuries suffered in spring training, Adell hit .308 with a .944 OPS, eight homers and 15 doubles in 43 games for Double-A Mobile. His bat cooled a bit after an Aug. 1 promotion to Triple-A Salt Lake, where Adell hit .215 with a .574 OPS, no homers and five doubles in his first 15 games, but that hasn’t altered his trajectory.

"As far as his early exposure to Triple-A, a lot of his peripheral numbers and underlying metrics that we look at kind of point to his first exposure to Double-A last year,” Eppler said. "He’s hitting the ball really hard, drawing some walks. He’s still getting his feet underneath him and getting exposed to a different way they pitch in Triple-A as opposed to Double-A."

The Angels will look to get Adell some winter-league at-bats to supplement his injury-shortened 2019 season. They want him to get a better feel for how balls spin, slice and hook in the outfield corners and to add some refinements at the plate before promoting him to Los Angeles.

ANGEL FOOD

 Jeremiah Jackson, a 19-year-old middle infield prospect who was a second-round pick in 2018, hit three home runs in one game for Rookie-level Orem on Aug. 15. He hit another homer on Aug. 17, giving him 21 homers, 52 RBIs and a .991 OPS in his first 54 games this season.

— Outfielder Michael Hermosillo hit three homers for Salt Lake in an Aug. 16 game against El Paso, giving him 10 home runs in 12 games through Aug. 17.

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Oliver Ortega has had mixed results at AA, but there still a lot to like. In 16 innings, he has an ERA over 8, but his FIP is around 3 and his xfip is at 3.88. he needs to work on his command, but next year will be a big year for him. Will determine if he can stay in a rotation or not.  

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Walsh and now Rojas could be setting records in AAA..

 

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1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Just bring Rojas up and let him wear the red for a bit.  He's earned it

I agree. I'd love to see Walsh, Ward, Rojas and Thaiss (and Rengifo) to get as many at bats as they can down the stretch. 

That means more days off for Upton, Calhoun, Pujols and Simmons. 

Nobody is talking about Ward, but damn he's got a sexy 1.011 OPS with 27 dingers in AAA this season. 

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3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Just bring Rojas up and let him wear the red for a bit.  He's earned it

Yeah I think even if they think he’s purely a PCL product and the defense isn’t MLB caliber, they should give him some Sept. at-bats and DFA in the winter if needed. Maybe someone gives him a chance, maybe he goes back to SLC, but either way he got to play for his hometown team. 

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