The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Angelsjunky]

My excitement about Jackson is going to remain luke warm until he starts developing his other skills, especially contact and plate discipline. His current profile--while impressive--almost always collapses at higher levels.

But yeah, dude can mash. Let's hope he can develop some other skills, too.

[Docwaukee]

very interesting discussion @totdprods and @Inside Pitch

part of the thought process could be that even when a high upside prospect is at the lower levels of the farm system, there is more to dream on which actually does give them more trade value from the word go.  

For instance, a guy like Fletcher didn't have significant trade value until he came up to the bigs and actually performed.  Whereas someone with a higher ceiling who's shown a little something in their first couple stints of minor league ball would turn a few more heads.   So it's not the ultimate trade value but the early trade value.  

As mentioned, it's unlikely the primary reason to target such players but another potential plus of going more high risk, high reward.  Also, I think college players get a year less of org control vs. that of guys coming out of high school.  

the level gaps of talent did seem to play a role in the aggressive promos but it also exposes system deficiencies which we have seen this year.  Normally there's a slew of org guys that can hang at a level where they're a year or two older than most of the competition but the halos seem to be avoiding that for the most part and instead moving that guy up to the next level regardless of whether they end up struggling.  

Jones is probably a good example where most teams would just have left him in A+ for the entire year and then sent him to AA this year for the first time.  

It's a slippery slope though in terms of maintaining confidence vs. allowing stagnation.  

[Angelsjunky]

What's up with Knowles? He actually fits in with this conversation to some extent. After his performance last year, many of us thought they'd aggressively start him in A ball this year. Perhaps due to injury they held him back in Orem, where he's seemingly regressed from last year, turning in a rather mediocre performance. So where before the question was, do they challenge him in Burlington or let him dominate Orem, he's ended up back-sliding and being overmatched in Orem.

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What's up with Knowles? He actually fits in with this conversation to some extent. After his performance last year, many of us thought they'd aggressively start him in A ball this year. Perhaps due to injury they held him back in Orem, where he's seemingly regressed from last year, turning in a rather mediocre performance. So where before the question was, do they challenge him in Burlington or let him dominate Orem, he's ended up back-sliding and being overmatched in Orem.

with Knowles, this could be purely age/maturity related.  He's already one of the 5 youngest position players in the pioneer league.  And he was injured on top of it.  If he had picked up where he left off from last year, I think he'd have been called up.  

I haven't paid attention, but maybe they're putting him through a substantial swing change.  

[Angel Oracle]

What is the scoop on 17 year-old pitcher Alejandro Duran in the DSL?     28 innings, 34/5 Ks/BBs, 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP

Was he one of the foreign signings that was played up earlier along with 16 year-old OF Alexander Ramirez? 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Jackon's Power is real, he's a potential 30-40 hr guy if he reaches his potential. The Strike-out are higher than you would like but he still has room to improve.  I think next year we'll see improvements on this part of his games. You have to also remember, that it took Jone's 2 full season to increase his BB rate, and this year he has a lower K rate than last year, Marsh it took him a year to increase his BB rate and this year his K rate has drop by playing in the tough AA, I also do think that marsh as the best hit tool in our system.Even Adell went thru a similar trend, right up to his struggles. I fully expect Jackson to be a a much better hitter next year.

 

 

[Docwaukee]

they say that one of the greatest predictors of future success for a minor league player is batting average.  There are obviously major caveats to that of course but if the player is age appropriate for their level then I personally believe it holds a fair amount of water.  

that said, Jackson is still one of the 20 youngest position players in the pioneer league.   Plus, the game has changes to where the above is less true than it's ever been.  

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

they say that one of the greatest predictors of future success for a minor league player is batting average.  There are obviously major caveats to that of course but if the player is age appropriate for their level then I personally believe it holds a fair amount of water.  

that said, Jackson is still one of the 20 youngest position players in the pioneer league.   Plus, the game has changes to where the above is less true than it's ever been.  

*Has flashbacks of Howie Kendrick getting shit on for not winning a batting title*

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

the level gaps of talent did seem to play a role in the aggressive promos but it also exposes system deficiencies which we have seen this year.  Normally there's a slew of org guys that can hang at a level where they're a year or two older than most of the competition but the halos seem to be avoiding that for the most part and instead moving that guy up to the next level regardless of whether they end up struggling.  

Ive made mention of this in other threads outside of this one -- the lack of organizational players has been an issue both in the development of guys and moreso on the overall performance of the individual teams.  The top end guys have for the most part been alone on their respective teams above rookie ball and they have been thrown at the wolves minus that veteran minor league presence to take some of the heat off them.

This was a good season for the system in that it graduated guys and has given players a taste of what it will take to succeed at higher levels -- I think next year we see an overall uptick across the board if for no other reason because I do believe they will have another year's worth of players in the system.

This is still a farm system on the mend, that's the same reason they need to avoid being overzealous when it comes to trades.   They got talent, they still dont have depth.

[ten ocho recon scout]

17 hours ago, Scott34 said:

Don't sleep on little Leo Rivas. 

 

[Docwaukee]

45 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Ive made mention of this in other threads outside of this one -- the lack of organizational players has been an issue both in the development of guys and moreso on the overall performance of the individual teams.  The top end guys have for the most part been alone on their respective teams above rookie ball and they have been thrown at the wolves minus that veteran minor league presence to take some of the heat off them.

This was a good season for the system in that it graduated guys and has given players a taste of what it will take to succeed at higher levels -- I think next year we see an overall uptick across the board if for no other reason because I do believe they will have another year's worth of players in the system.

This is still a farm system on the mend, that's the same reason they need to avoid being overzealous when it comes to trades.   They got talent, they still dont have depth.

I've mentioned this before but I think it's worth repeating.  

the biggest reason this system got to where it was is that we sat out of the international market for YEARS.  Essentially from 2009 to 2016. 

Not only were they not eligible to sign a high end international prospect after inking a worthless Baldoquin, the essentially gassed their entire international operation for almost 5 years.  About a 30% of the talent in baseball comes by international means.   That's like saying you're going to not sign 3 of your top ten draft picks every year for at least 5 years and then not be able to sign your first 2 picks for another 2 years right off the top.  In addition, during that 5 years where you have completely burnt down your entire infrastructure and detached yourself from anything intl related, you basically didn't bring in any players of value for that entire time.  This was also a time where the rules hadn't changed so certain teams took tremendous advantage of bringing in at many players as possible because there were still means to use money as a manipulation.  

Kudos to Arte for taking a stance against a broken and morally bankrupt system but they're where they're at because of it.  

A 16yo prospect in 2013 would be 22 right now.  A quarter to a third of the Angels talent pool is missing at AAA, AA, and A+ because of this.   Let that sink in.  

So yah, we missed out on some early round picks because of FA signings like Albert and Wilson and Hamilton.   And we probably missed out on gaining some talent from trading away a couple vets here and there at the deadline and we had some really bad drafts under Dipoto and he took a hatchet by trading away a ton of depth and every last ounce of currency went toward the major league team.  

All those things added up to treating the farm system about as poorly as one could imagine.  But the major component to this systems absolute annihilation was the complete and utter disregard of almost 30% of the talent pool made up of the intl market.  

It's actually very impressive that Billy has recovered it to middle of the pack in such a short period.  It also tells you why they lack major depth in obvious areas at certain levels and why graduating a couple of players gives people the perception they've taken a step back.  While Billy has been here for 4 years, he's only really had access to that 30% more talent for 2.  And that isn't even taking into account the foundation up rebuild of the entire international infrastructure.  

It was that bad.  

 

[totdprods]

FYI - Michael Hermosillo has three home runs already tonight in the SLC game - and its only the the 4th inning.

He’s also hit seven in his last ten games before tonight, so currently at 10 HR last 11 games.

Edited August 17, 2019 by totdprods

[tdawg87]

Herm has clearly reached the point of no return. He has nothing left to show in the minors.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Herm has clearly reached the point of no return. He has nothing left to show in the minors.

He really should get a bulk of September ABs in RF. Angels should give him regularly playing time for a few weeks and see if he can stick. 

He seems like the guy who bounces around a couple teams by DFA and then all of the sudden at age 29 drops 25 HR after an injury opens up playing time on a small market team. 

Edited August 17, 2019 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

I could really see Hermosillo sneaking up on us and playing an important role next year. Let Kole walk, start the year with an outfield of Upton-Trout-Goodwin-Hermosillo. Let Herm and Goodwin fight to start games in RF, with Herm backing up Trout until Adell is ready (June?).

I still like the idea of Herm being a long-term 4th outfielder behind Marsh-Trout-Adell.

[Docwaukee]

Herm destroys lefties.  He's actually a really good RHed platoon option with Goodwin prior to Adell coming up.  He's fast as shit although not really a candidate to steal a ton.  He plays good defense.  Even in CFer when Trout needs a day off.  

[Angelsjunky]

29 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Herm destroys lefties.  He's actually a really good RHed platoon option with Goodwin prior to Adell coming up.  He's fast as shit although not really a candidate to steal a ton.  He plays good defense.  Even in CFer when Trout needs a day off.  

Yeah, he's a more natural 4OF than Goodwin is, who is more of a fringer corner starter or platoon player.

[vladdy#27]

Jackson has a .301 average from July 1st on.

His first 14 games he hit .214/.333/.536 with 4 HR while striking out 35% of the time

His last 37 games he's hit .301/.356/.699 with 16 HR while striking out 30% of the time. His average is better and he's striking out less so thats encouraging, but he's also walking less. 16% in his first 14 games versus 7% his last 37.

[Second Base]

Walsh keeps throwing scoreless frames. He's a better pitcher than we've been giving him credit for.

And yes, Hermosillo should probably be in the major leagues. I understand why he's in AAA, he missed a chunk of time rehabbing from the hernia, and Goodwin took that 4th outfield spot and had run with it. But as far as his ability, he should probably be a plain outfielder.

Edited August 17, 2019 by Second Base

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

FYI - Michael Hermosillo has three home runs already tonight in the SLC game - and its only the the 4th inning.

He’s also hit seven in his last ten games before tonight, so currently at 10 HR last 11 games.

[Chuck]

@totdprods unless Hermosillo goes 0-15 with 15 K's, I'm guessing he's a lock for the top spot on Monday's prospect hotsheet.

[rafibomb]

Adell's second double of the night was just short of his first triple-a home run

 

 

[Scott34]

Jackson HR # 21

[TroutField]

40 minutes ago, Scott34 said:

Jackson HR # 21

It’s a little ridiculous at this point.

[TroutField]

Adell 2-4 with another double today. 3 in the last 2 games. Also cut down a run at the plate with a solid throw. He’s coming around in AAA after the rough stretch to start.