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what happened last year that gave everyone such a good feeling?  

Fletcher, Regifo, Adell, Walsh, Ward, Rojas were standouts.  All of who have stayed the same in the minors or progressed to the bigs.  Adell was injured to start the year and was a beast prior to AAA.  At 20.  and he wasn't exactly great in AA last year.  So he's clearly gotten better and we're talking about 49 PA in AAA so far.  

Canning and Suarez progressed to the bigs as well and are taking their lumps.  Both of whom were better at AAA prior to their promo.  

Thaiss is a major league player.  

Jose Rojas is killing AAA after looking over matched last year

Knowles is probably one of the few who hasn't gotten better along with Jam Jones but more on him later. 

Jeremiah Jackson went through a full swing change and now leads the pioneer league in hrs 

Orlando Martinez advanced a level and has improved with more power

Brandon Marsh advanced two levels from the start of last year and has gotten better.  

Jordyn Adams had a .683 ops at two rookie levels last year and still got a promo to A ball where he's been about the same.  At 19.

Jam Jones ended up with .717 ops last year over A+/AA but has had his best stretch in AA over the last 20+ games  with a .851 ops.  So while he's not gotten better overall, his aggressive promo is showing some hope.  He's probably the most visible in terms of a litmus for the entire farm, but you can't think that way.  

So two position players have disappointed.  A bunch of other guys who we didn't expect much from have come out of nowhere on to the radar.  

On the pitching side, there has been clear progression.  So many guys have gotten better including Yan, Soriano, Ortega and several others.  Many of whom have been aggressively promoted.  

So maybe it's that they weren't as good as we thought last year, but overall, I see progression and graduations.  

It's not fun that Knowles and Adams and Maitan and Marsh haven't turned into Adell but who's going to and if that was the expectation, then people need to reset those.   There's plenty of high ceiling talent that could take off at any time but I wouldn't expect it next year either.  Maybe you get one guy and if that makes everyone feel better then great, but something like that only adds marginal value to the farm overall.  

I would actually argue that the pitching progression from this year at multiple levels has actually been of greater value than the few individual performances from last year.  

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Posted (edited)

 I think part of the issue is that almost all of these guys are in the low minors.  I recognize that and I do get what you’re saying Doc. 

Part of the concern is that guys in the low minors are less valuable trade bullets.  We all want the Angels to compete yesterday.  Maybe that’s unrealistic but it is what it is.  Obviously more valuable tradable assets moves the major league club along. 

Edited by UndertheHalo

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4 minutes ago, ScottT said:

I don't expect stardom.  Because of the BB and K rates.  You can develop that, but not everyone does.   I'm hopeful, but who knows.   Even if you don't develop that.....  you can sneak in a couple all star seasons.  You can be Justin Upton.... which would be ok.   A slight disappointment, but good times.  Good value before FA.   

People that expect him be Trout are fools.  I'd be ecstatic if he turned into Springer.  I think he can.  

Upton has averaged 3.6 fWAR per 162 games, Springer has averaged 5.1. I'm hopeful that Adell will eventually be that good, but will start more in the 3-4 range. But yeah, his stardom hinges on to what degree he masters the strike zone which will show up in his BB and K rates. 

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Also, I am not arguing that we have a top 10 farm system.  Just one better than the worst EVER three years ago.  I think middle of the pack is reasonable and we'll need progression and/or breakout from a few guys to move up the chain, but there is that potential.  Something we haven't had in years.  

Adams, Maitan, Knowles, Deveaux, a bunch of DSL guys, Soriano, Acquino, Yan, Franco, Marsh, Rondon, Paris, Kochanowicz, Wilson, Jackson, Duensing, Hunter, Ortega, Holmes and a slew of others.  Most won't amount to much but all of them have huge upside.  We haven't even seen most of the pitchers from this year's draft.  

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4 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

 I think part of the issue is that almost all of these guys are in the low minors.  I recognize that and I do get what you’re saying Doc. 

Part of the concern is that guys in the low minors are less valuable trade bullets.  We all want the Angels to compete yesterday.  Maybe that’s unrealistic but it is what it is.  Obviously more valuable tradable assets moves the major league club along. 

It is unrealistic and you are right.  The low minors guys don't have the prospect clout as of yet.  But the major league offense is good, the bullpen is good, and there are options for the mid/back of the rotation.  Some solid additions make the team better than they've been in awhile whether people want to believe that or not.   But it might take a full year or maybe even two before we see assets achieve value where trading them makes sense.  The farm got so much better so fast that it's left people with unrealistic expectations.  That was mostly because they were so unbelievably bad to start.  I encourage people to look at a 2-3 window or more when evaluating a farm system.  

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Doc,I could list every player you mentioned--and add in others--and say something negative or concerning. To some degree--given our limited knowledge--it is how we choose to look at it, which narrative we gravitate towards (like politics). I tend to be optimistic but over the years (decades) of following the Angels, have found that reality usually settles in somewhat below what I expected/ hoped, so I try to compensate with dose of glass-half-emptyism.

For gits and shiggles...

Adell is very good, but probably not a superstar. His BB/K rates could really be exposed in the majors leading to a Buxton-esque rate of development. Buxton is a good player but it took him years to get there and he's not quite the superstar people hoped.

Fletcher/Rengifo are good, solid players, but just that.

Walsh, Ward, and Rojas are nothing more than altitude inflated quad-A types at this point. That might change, but we've seen nothing (yet) to show us otherwise.  

Canning and Suarez progressed well, but are showing signs of limited upside. It might be that the non-Angels pundits were right in projecting both to be #3-4 types at best. Ditto Sandoval.

Thaiss is a major league player. 

Knowles, Adams, and Deveaux display tools but could just as easily flame out in the high minors as become good major leaguers.

Jackson shows power but little else: no walks, tons of strikeouts, poor contact. There's talent but he could easily bust.

Orlando Martinez is Brennon Lund. Anything to be excited about?

Brandon Marsh continues to flash potential but at some point he has to start producing numbers. Right now his batting line points to another Lund-type. Unlike Lund his athleticism will make him a good 4th outfielder at least, but if he wants to be a good regular--let alone a star--he has to hit for some power.    

As for the pitchers, the high upside guys are all in A-ball or lower. Chris Rodriguez's inability to stay healthy is very concerning. Soriano, Yan, and Aquino show promise, but are also the types of pitchers that end up being relievers in the majors. Ortega could be a sleeper prospect, or he could be another Castillo/Beasely/Torpeano back-end rotation fodder type.  

I could go on. The point being, you can tilt the angle of perception one way and things look quite promising; tilt it just slightly different and there's room for concern.

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5 minutes ago, ScottT said:

Just curious....  

Mike Trout in the minors:

1326 PA....155 BB (11.6 %)... 213 K (16%)

Mike Trout in the majors

5173 PA... 783 BB (15.1%)...  1095 K (21.2%)

I see what you mean but all things like that go out the window with Trout.  He's a freak beyond comprehension.  

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12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I see what you mean but all things like that go out the window with Trout.  He's a freak beyond comprehension.  

Of course. Nobody is Mike Trout.  Nobody can be expected to turn into Mike Trout.

I was really just curious.   I knew his rates were better than Adell's.   His walk rate wasn't that great.... but....  he also didn't hit many home runs in the minors.  To draw more walks without doing serious damage... says something.  

 

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Doc,I could list every player you mentioned--and add in others--and say something negative or concerning. To some degree--given our limited knowledge--it is how we choose to look at it, which narrative we gravitate towards (like politics). I tend to be optimistic but over the years (decades) of following the Angels, have found that reality usually settles in somewhat below what I expected/ hoped, so I try to compensate with dose of glass-half-emptyism.

For gits and shiggles...

Adell is very good, but probably not a superstar. His BB/K rates could really be exposed in the majors leading to a Buxton-esque rate of development. Buxton is a good player but it took him years to get there and he's not quite the superstar people hoped.

based on what 50 ab at AAA?

Fletcher/Rengifo are good, solid players, but just that.

based on what?  a short stint in the bigs?  

Walsh, Ward, and Rojas are nothing more than altitude inflated quad-A types at this point. That might change, but we've seen nothing (yet) to show us otherwise. 

agree, but if you expected more than that your were misinformed to start. 

Canning and Suarez progressed well, but are showing signs of limited upside. It might be that the non-Angels pundits were right in projecting both to be #3-4 types at best. Ditto Sandoval.

base on what?  Their first stint in the bigs?  22yo pitchers never get better.  

Thaiss is a major league player. 

Knowles, Adams, and Deveaux display tools but could just as easily flame out in the high minors as become good major leaguers.

they could but to judge them based on this year is premature

Jackson shows power but little else: no walks, tons of strikeouts, poor contact. There's talent but he could easily bust.

he could but to judge him based on this year is premature

Orlando Martinez is Brennon Lund. Anything to be excited about?

he's a way better prospect than Lund with way more upside although likely ends up not making it.  Lesser talents have been better.  Again, too early to make a judgement.  

Brandon Marsh continues to flash potential but at some point he has to start producing numbers. Right now his batting line points to another Lund-type. Unlike Lund his athleticism will make him a good 4th outfielder at least, but if he wants to be a good regular--let alone a star--he has to hit for some power.  

you know it's absurd to compare him to Lund.  They're not even in the same stratosphere.  Again, too early to judge.  

As for the pitchers, the high upside guys are all in A-ball or lower. Chris Rodriguez's inability to stay healthy is very concerning. Soriano, Yan, and Aquino show promise, but are also the types of pitchers that end up being relievers in the majors. Ortega could be a sleeper prospect, or he could be another Castillo/Beasely/Torpeano back-end rotation fodder type.

agreed, but again, too early.  

I could go on. The point being, you can tilt the angle of perception one way and things look quite promising; tilt it just slightly different and there's room for concern.

I didn't tilt anything other than trying to keep people from judging based on some numbers they've looked up on BR or fangraphs.  Am I thrilled the system didn't blow up and become top 5 this year?  No.  Did I think they were top 5 or even 10 last year?  No.  Either it works out or it doesn't.  If what you've seen this year had made you concerned then you weren't paying attention last year or the year before.  There's one Adell in each draft every year.  I think a lot of people have seen what he's done and expect that from several guys in the minors.  It's just not gonna happen.  

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There's also that (for lack of a better term)... X factor.   Mike Trout has it.  Michael Jordan had it.  Kobe Bryant.  Etc.  Jo Adell seems to be from that mold.  Doesn't always turn into greatness, but most of the greats have it.  

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Just now, ScottT said:

There's also that (for lack of a better term)... X factor.   Mike Trout has it.  Michael Jordan had it.  Kobe Bryant.  Etc.  Jo Adell seems to be from that mold.  Doesn't always turn into greatness, but most of the greats have it.  

that's what I'm talking about.  he's got something different.  

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51 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm a bit concerned, as I've said before - certainly more concerned than some of the other thread regulars. Most of the better position player prospects have either stagnated or taken a step back this year. I think we need to accept the likelihood that we had overly inflated expectations last year. Last year it looked like a farm on the cusp of the top ten in all of baseball, now it looks closer to #20 than #10. 

Without Adell, our farm is very underwhelming in the sense of having prospects that will be, instead of might be. And I know technically all prospects are might bes, but y’all should know what I mean.

Here’s a break down of 50 grade or above prospects per team according to MLB.com:

ARI (16) - 55 (4), 50 (12)

ATL (10) - 60 (1), 55 (4), 50 (5)

BAL (11) - 65 (1), 55 (3), 50 (7)

BOS (11) - 55 (1), 50 (10)

CHC (10) - 55 (2), 50 (8)

CWS (9) - 65 (1), 55 (4), 50 (4)

CIN (10) - 55 (3), 50 (7)

CLE (13) - 55 (4), 50 (9)

COL (6) - 60 (1), 55 (1), 50 (4)

DET (14) - 65 (1), 55 (3), 50 (10)

HOU (3) - 60 (2), 50 (1)

KC (8) - 60 (1), 55 (2), 50 (5)

LAA (5) - 65 (1), 50 (4)

LAD (14) - 60 (1), 55 (3), 50 (10)

MIA (12) - 55 (6), 50 (6)

MIL (9) - 55 (1), 50 (8)

MIN (13) - 60 (2), 55 (3), 50 (8)

NYM (12) - 55 (3), 50 (9)

NYY (12) - 55 (3), 50 (9)

OAK (8) - 55 (3), 50 (5)

PHI (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

PIT (7) - 55 (3), 50 (4)

SD (10) - 65 (1), 55 (7), 50 (2)

SF (10) - 55 (4), 50 (6)

SEA (8) - 55 (5), 50 (3)

STL (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

TB (11) - 70 (1), 60 (1), 55 (4), 50 (5)

TEX (16) - 55 (3), 50 (13)

TOR (13) - 60 (2), 55 (1), 50 (10)

WAS (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

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1 hour ago, Jinzu said:

Without Adell, our farm is very underwhelming in the sense of having prospects that will be, instead of might be. And I know technically all prospects are might bes, but y’all should know what I mean.

Here’s a break down of 50 grade or above prospects per team according to MLB.com:

ARI (16) - 55 (4), 50 (12)

ATL (10) - 60 (1), 55 (4), 50 (5)

BAL (11) - 65 (1), 55 (3), 50 (7)

BOS (11) - 55 (1), 50 (10)

CHC (10) - 55 (2), 50 (8)

CWS (9) - 65 (1), 55 (4), 50 (4)

CIN (10) - 55 (3), 50 (7)

CLE (13) - 55 (4), 50 (9)

COL (6) - 60 (1), 55 (1), 50 (4)

DET (14) - 65 (1), 55 (3), 50 (10)

HOU (3) - 60 (2), 50 (1)

KC (8) - 60 (1), 55 (2), 50 (5)

LAA (5) - 65 (1), 50 (4)

LAD (14) - 60 (1), 55 (3), 50 (10)

MIA (12) - 55 (6), 50 (6)

MIL (9) - 55 (1), 50 (8)

MIN (13) - 60 (2), 55 (3), 50 (8)

NYM (12) - 55 (3), 50 (9)

NYY (12) - 55 (3), 50 (9)

OAK (8) - 55 (3), 50 (5)

PHI (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

PIT (7) - 55 (3), 50 (4)

SD (10) - 65 (1), 55 (7), 50 (2)

SF (10) - 55 (4), 50 (6)

SEA (8) - 55 (5), 50 (3)

STL (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

TB (11) - 70 (1), 60 (1), 55 (4), 50 (5)

TEX (16) - 55 (3), 50 (13)

TOR (13) - 60 (2), 55 (1), 50 (10)

WAS (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

And therein lies the issue.  MLB.com is pretty much the worst place you can look to get detailed incite of prospects or even remotely accurate information on any of the lesser known prospects.  

I'm going to flat out say it, because AngelsWin involves more people who are more focused on this system specifically, our Top 30 Prospect rankings are much better than anything you'll see from MLB.com. 

MLB.com says the Angels will end up with 5 players from their current prospect crop that end up being average or better major leaguers.  The pessimist in me says 6.  The optimist in me says 13.  The realist in me says 10.

And you can choose to believe me or not.  That really isn't my concern.  I'm simply saying that using the knowledge that I've accumulated on each one of these guys through this stage in their respective careers, I believe there are currently 10 prospects in the Angels system that will end up being average major leaguers or better.  For me, I identify an average major league position players as one that is a starter, and not just on the worst team in the league.  As a pitcher, an average pitcher would be one that makes it into a rotation and pitches better than a #5 starter, or one that pitches in relief and becomes something better than a middle reliever or mop up pitcher. 

Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, Jordyn Adams, Will Wilson, Matt Thaiss, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Oliver Ortega, Kevin Maitan, and Jack Kochanowicz all fit this description to me.  Adell will be a perennial all-star.  Marsh, Adams and Wilson will be studs that may make an all-star team once or twice.  Thaiss will be a solid starting 3B/1B.  Maitan will be a switch-hitting starting 3B/1B with plus power.  Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano and Jack Kochanowicz (super aggressive on him) will be mid-rotation starters and Oliver Ortega is going to be a dominant late inning reliever for a few years. 

The other guys that I think will miss out, like Jeremiah Jackson, Jose Suarez, Karen Paris, and Patrick Sandoval, all have the upside to exceed the FV50 mark though.  I'm not saying they will, but I am saying the talent is there. 

And then there are guys like Aaron Hernandez who to me looks like he could turn into a lethal 8th or 9th inning option as well. 

There's just a TON of potential in this system, which is a far cry from the days of Jerry Dipoto.  I agree with @Dochalo that the Angels are probably a mid-ranked farm system, though I think they're still being undersold.  They were a mid-ranked farm system back before they produced Canning, Barria, Suarez, Buttrey, Rengifo, Fletcher and Ohtani (technically).  Yet when we compare the Angels recent output of prospects (Sandoval and Thaiss included), they FAR exceed that of your average major league team.  The Angels were a top five ranked farm system a year or two ago, but were only ranked middle of the pack, and most publications are now only beginning to realize how wrong they were.

I think the same thing is happening here.  They're going to rank them right there in the middle, but there's so much more talent here than they're being given credit for.  Then suddenly when Jordyn Adams figures it out they'll pretend like he shot up out of nowhere even though he was a first round pick.  Or Chris Rodriguez is suddenly healthy and pitching like a Top 50 prospect and they'll act all surprised by that as well.  But the boys on AW, they knew.  

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@Dochalo, I think you're misunderstanding my stance. That last post was merely pointing out how you can take one step the other way and provide reasonable reasons to be underwhelmed with the farm this year; meaning, that being somewhat concerned and disappointed is a reasonable reaction to the farm. I'm actually almost as optimistic as you are, but adjusting for my own optimistic bias by trying to look at it from an outside perspective. But I am far less concerned than you seem to think; and "concern" isn't either/or but a matter of degree...I get that the farm is in much better shape than it was a few years ago, but my concern comes from the possibility that the upward trajectory has slowed and even stagnated.

Most of the prospects are highly volatile, with a wide range of possible outcomes. For instance, I fully realize that Marsh is a much better prospect than Lund, but there's a pessimistic outlook where he has a career not that much better. While Marsh's ceiling is quite a bit higher than Lund's, their floors are quite a bit closer. Potentially isn't always actualized, and so far Marsh's talent is more in potential than actualized. In other words, three years after being drafted he still hasn't had that big breakthrough year in the minors, while overall holding his own. I like Marsh and have high hopes for him, but he exemplifies a lot of Angels prospects in terms of having more talent than has yet translated into actual numbers.

And again, based on what we've seen so far. That's what I'm getting at. We can talk about potential all we want, but in the end potential is just a possibility of better performance. At some point it has to translate.

And I agree that the farm is middle of the pack, but this could change rather quickly - in about a year, which is what I and @UndertheHalo are speculating. Because of high volatility, this is a farm system that could just as easily be #25 as #10 a year from now. 

As for Adell, I'm not basing my concern about his BBs and Ks on 50 AAA plate appearances, but over 900 minor league PA. Again, I am reasonably certain that Adell will at least be a borderline star (4-5 WAR), with a very good chance of being an all-star (5-6 WAR). He could become a superstar (6+ WAR), but I'll feel more confident once we see strike zone mastery translate to better BB/K rates.

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26 minutes ago, Second Base said:

And therein lies the issue.  MLB.com is pretty much the worst place you can look to get detailed incite of prospects or even remotely accurate information on any of the lesser known prospects.  

I'm going to flat out say it, because AngelsWin involves more people who are more focused on this system specifically, our Top 30 Prospect rankings are much better than anything you'll see from MLB.com. 

MLB.com says the Angels will end up with 5 players from their current prospect crop that end up being average or better major leaguers.  The pessimist in me says 6.  The optimist in me says 13.  The realist in me says 10.

And you can choose to believe me or not.  That really isn't my concern.  I'm simply saying that using the knowledge that I've accumulated on each one of these guys through this stage in their respective careers, I believe there are currently 10 prospects in the Angels system that will end up being average major leaguers or better.  For me, I identify an average major league position players as one that is a starter, and not just on the worst team in the league.  As a pitcher, an average pitcher would be one that makes it into a rotation and pitches better than a #5 starter, or one that pitches in relief and becomes something better than a middle reliever or mop up pitcher. 

Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, Jordyn Adams, Will Wilson, Matt Thaiss, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Oliver Ortega, Kevin Maitan, and Jack Kochanowicz all fit this description to me.  Adell will be a perennial all-star.  Marsh, Adams and Wilson will be studs that may make an all-star team once or twice.  Thaiss will be a solid starting 3B/1B.  Maitan will be a switch-hitting starting 3B/1B with plus power.  Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano and Jack Kochanowicz (super aggressive on him) will be mid-rotation starters and Oliver Ortega is going to be a dominant late inning reliever for a few years. 

The other guys that I think will miss out, like Jeremiah Jackson, Jose Suarez, Karen Paris, and Patrick Sandoval, all have the upside to exceed the FV50 mark though.  I'm not saying they will, but I am saying the talent is there. 

And then there are guys like Aaron Hernandez who to me looks like he could turn into a lethal 8th or 9th inning option as well. 

There's just a TON of potential in this system, which is a far cry from the days of Jerry Dipoto.  I agree with @Dochalo that the Angels are probably a mid-ranked farm system, though I think they're still being undersold.  They were a mid-ranked farm system back before they produced Canning, Barria, Suarez, Buttrey, Rengifo, Fletcher and Ohtani (technically).  Yet when we compare the Angels recent output of prospects (Sandoval and Thaiss included), they FAR exceed that of your average major league team.  The Angels were a top five ranked farm system a year or two ago, but were only ranked middle of the pack, and most publications are now only beginning to realize how wrong they were.

I think the same thing is happening here.  They're going to rank them right there in the middle, but there's so much more talent here than they're being given credit for.  Then suddenly when Jordyn Adams figures it out they'll pretend like he shot up out of nowhere even though he was a first round pick.  Or Chris Rodriguez is suddenly healthy and pitching like a Top 50 prospect and they'll act all surprised by that as well.  But the boys on AW, they knew.  

I feel like the FG rank is about as good as I've seen in terms of comprehensive reviews.  I disagree with some of their rankings but in both directions and overall I feel like it evens out.  There's probably an AW.com equivalent for every team that think their rankings are better than the pundits and they're probably right.  

However, even a site like fangraphs has to hedge their bets.  They're never going to give guys with superstar potential a high grade when they're in rookie ball unless they're the #1 draft pick or the #1 international prospect.  

We've got a decent gap in potential from A+ to AAA now that we've graduated a bunch of guy.  We've got our two best prospects and a couple of pitchers in that realm.  Most of the systems value is at A or lower with a ton of upside.  

People are gonna hate this statement, but it might take 2-3 more year before a few of these guys become top 100 types and the rest of that crew to graduate to AA and fill things out.  What we're seeing at the major league level right now is as much Dipoto and his crew as it is Eppler.  Billy just made the wise choice of not trading them.  What Eppler is building is still on it's way for the most part along with some strong trades for Rengifo, Buttrey and Sandoval and a couple draft picks already materializing in Canning and sort of Thaiss.  Otherwise, people should expect a normal development process.  If the major league team, which has now been put into a position to use those early returns to create a potentially competitive team, can parlay them into wins, then great.  Ahead of schedule regardless of the timeline people want.  

Again, either the strategy is gonna work or it's not.  I have no idea if it will but I like a lot of what they've done so there's hope.  Maybe the sign, draft and development process fails and we're SOL which happens.  We'll just have to see on that.   

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54 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

@Dochalo, I think you're misunderstanding my stance. That last post was merely pointing out how you can take one step the other way and provide reasonable reasons to be underwhelmed with the farm this year; meaning, that being somewhat concerned and disappointed is a reasonable reaction to the farm. I'm actually almost as optimistic as you are, but adjusting for my own optimistic bias by trying to look at it from an outside perspective. But I am far less concerned than you seem to think; and "concern" isn't either/or but a matter of degree...I get that the farm is in much better shape than it was a few years ago, but my concern comes from the possibility that the upward trajectory has slowed and even stagnated.

Most of the prospects are highly volatile, with a wide range of possible outcomes. For instance, I fully realize that Marsh is a much better prospect than Lund, but there's a pessimistic outlook where he has a career not that much better. While Marsh's ceiling is quite a bit higher than Lund's, their floors are quite a bit closer. Potentially isn't always actualized, and so far Marsh's talent is more in potential than actualized. In other words, three years after being drafted he still hasn't had that big breakthrough year in the minors, while overall holding his own. I like Marsh and have high hopes for him, but he exemplifies a lot of Angels prospects in terms of having more talent than has yet translated into actual numbers.

And again, based on what we've seen so far. That's what I'm getting at. We can talk about potential all we want, but in the end potential is just a possibility of better performance. At some point it has to translate.

And I agree that the farm is middle of the pack, but this could change rather quickly - in about a year, which is what I and @UndertheHalo are speculating. Because of high volatility, this is a farm system that could just as easily be #25 as #10 a year from now. 

As for Adell, I'm not basing my concern about his BBs and Ks on 50 AAA plate appearances, but over 900 minor league PA. Again, I am reasonably certain that Adell will at least be a borderline star (4-5 WAR), with a very good chance of being an all-star (5-6 WAR). He could become a superstar (6+ WAR), but I'll feel more confident once we see strike zone mastery translate to better BB/K rates.

I think you're misunderstanding me actually.  I agree that you can spin this years performance one way or the other pretty easily.  I can totally see why someone would look at what's happened this year and be totally bearish on the system.  But that would me they had unrealistic expectations to start.  From Eppler drafts we've got Thaiss in the majors, Marsh in AA, Canning in the majors, Adell at AAA and pretty much every other of the 160 players from those drafts in A or lower with a few exceptions.  That's where they should be considering that many of the players with upside were drafted out of HS.  It's actually pretty impressive that the top 4 prospects from Eppler's first two drafts are close to or in the majors.  It's also crazy to expect anything more.  

So to be disappointed with what's transpired on the farm this year seems premature.  We're probably two years from judging the 2016 draft which was a little over  3 years ago.  If you're thinking about it the right way, this year shouldn't have changed anyone's outlook on our farm system.  

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I agree that disappointment as some kind of finalized indictment is premature, but I'm not sure anyone is going that far - at least in this round of conversation. I can only speak for myself, and I certainly don't feel that way. But am I somewhat concerned or disappointed with a number of prospects? Yes, and I don't think that is unreasonable or premature. Is it premature to be disappointed with Chris Rodriguez's inability to stay healthy? With Marsh's lack of power? With Knowles' poor numbers? With Jones' terrible year? Etc, Etc. 

I'm trying to find a middle ground between the usual rosy glasses outlook on one hand and the failo view on the other. Let's allow for some degrees between one extreme and the other. If I'm disappointed that Marsh's power hasn't shown up yet (for the most part), it doesn't mean that I'm writing him off or don't think it won't show up, just that I was hoping it would more this year than it has. 

Is there really a "right way" to view the farm, as you say? I'm not so sure, and partially because such judgement is premature - to project either way. This year hasn't changed by overall outlook of the farm; my disappointment stems more from how my outlook hasn't changed: it hasn't cemented the upward trajectory as firmly as I would have liked. 

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8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I agree that disappointment as some kind of finalized indictment is premature, but I'm not sure anyone is going that far - at least in this round of conversation. I can only speak for myself, and I certainly don't feel that way. But am I somewhat concerned or disappointed with a number of prospects? Yes, and I don't think that is unreasonable or premature. Is it premature to be disappointed with Chris Rodriguez's inability to stay healthy? With Marsh's lack of power? With Knowles' poor numbers? With Jones' terrible year? Etc, Etc. 

I'm trying to find a middle ground between the usual rosy glasses outlook on one hand and the failo view on the other. Let's allow for some degrees between one extreme and the other. If I'm disappointed that Marsh's power hasn't shown up yet (for the most part), it doesn't mean that I'm writing him off or don't think it won't show up, just that I was hoping it would more this year than it has. 

Is there really a "right way" to view the farm, as you say? I'm not so sure, and partially because such judgement is premature - to project either way. This year hasn't changed by overall outlook of the farm; my disappointment stems more from how my outlook hasn't changed: it hasn't cemented the upward trajectory as firmly as I would have liked. 

I agree with everything you've said AJ and was initially responding to some of the statements made about the system by people other than you.  Maybe there's not a right way to view the system but I do think that the initial trajectory and progress attributed to Eppler and his staff was perhaps allocated improperly. 

I guess my ultimate point is that this years progress is probably pretty standard in terms of how Eppler has drafted and acquired talent.  Not great and not bad.  Jones, Barria, Fletcher, Ward, Walsh, Anderson, Middleton,  Hermosillo and the assets to obtain, Rengifo, Sandoval, Upton, Simmons, and ultimately Buttrey  were all here when Eppler arrived.  Actually, so were Yan and Ortega as well as a few other guys.  So maybe the system really wasn't the worst ever and we kinda mentally gave Eppler most of the credit for this initial huge improvement in the system when in fact it was more of a combo of what Eppler did and the fact that maybe we didn't really have the worst farm system ever.  Of course Billy and his staff did a great job initially of using or not using certain currency the right way and then had a couple strong draft classes right off the bat to boot.  

So it gave the perception and expectation that he was churning out all these players when in fact he was just making good decisions.  Now that the holdovers have done what they're gonna do, what Eppler is building or has built as opposed to what he inherited is starting to take shape and that's what this year has shown us more than anything.  That he's infused the lower half of the system with tons of pitching depth, and a bunch of high upside position players while creating a development process that seems to be moving many forward.  

I can't make people be happy about our system but only try to offer a little perspective that while the lack of a couple breakouts by any 2 or 3 guys may has not been a great optic, the system has actually made progress this year regardless and on par with what one should expect.  There's still more talent and potential than there was or at least that's what I see.  It seemed at first that Eppler was working magic in terms of a transformation but he's not.  Just appropriate progression within the normal confines of how things go.  

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